 Poster: A snowHead
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Vague and so far out as to be almost pointless.
"Issued 10 July 2008
Background
This first assessment of prospects for Winter 2008/9 is based on statistical forecasting methods. Later, in September, the forecast is updated using output from global numerical forecast models. The statistical predictions are based primarily on the influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on European winter climate, and changing expectations for winter due to the climate warming trend. Since the mid 1980s the average UK annual temperature has warmed by about 1 °C and winters warmer than the 1971-2000 average are now common. Of the last ten, only the winter of 2000/1 had UK mean temperature below normal.
The mean UK temperature last winter was 1.2 °C above the 1971-2000 average and was the 9th highest. Last winter was wetter than average, with 118% of the 1971-2000 average and was the 11th wettest. National and regional climate series began in 1914, for temperature and rainfall.
Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages. Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of December, January and February – although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in northern Britain. Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.
Early indications for Winter 2008/9 (December, January and February)
Temperature
Winter temperatures are more likely to be either near, or above average, than below average over much of the European region. For northern Europe, including the UK, Winter 2008/9 is likely to be less mild than last winter.
Rainfall
There is currently no clear signal for either above or below-average rainfall. However, for much of northern Europe, including the UK, rainfall is likely to be lower than observed in last year's relatively wet winter.
Updates and reviews of the forecast
This first assessment for Winter 2008/9 will be updated in September"
Colder but drier - hope they're right in the former and wrong in the latter! 
Although even with a lot less snow than last year if it had stayed cold all winter it would still have been a cracker! 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| robboj wrote: |
Vague and so far out as to be almost pointless.
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I disagree. Instead of "almost", you should have said "totally".
They say themselves that this first itreration is based entirely on statistical methods - i.e. they have no information yet to suggest how it might vary from previous averages and observed trends.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| robboj wrote: |
| However, for much of northern Europe, including the UK, rainfall is likely to be lower than observed in last year's relatively wet winter. |
the definition of a statement of the bleedin obvious 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I confidently predict there will be a bit of snow, rain, cloud, wind and sun this Winter.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I thought last winter was quite cold here in gloucestershire, we certainly had more snow than usual and lots of crisp bright cold days in febuary, difficult to belive it was the 9th warmest on record. Must have been really warm somewhere else in the country.......
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Sounds good to me. Last season was very good in Europe, superb in Scotland (and the Lake District), though mainly after the end of 'winter', ie March, April and May.
I'll settle for less mild than last winter, though I didn't think it was particularly wet ?
It seems to me that the climate change model we've been given which predicts hotter drier summers and milder wetter winters, isn't proving particularly accurate, is it ? Mild winters and wetter summers seems to be the trend of the noughties, with plenty of blocking activity always bringing the possibility of snowfall in winter. I wonder if the model will be amended soon ?
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I already mentioned in another thread not to book early as this EU season 2008/9 will be warm with a severe lack of snow.
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stanton, Yes and we've all come to the conclusion that this is entirely based on your desire to have resorts to yourself.
2-years ago, which I admit wasn't the best, you were the voice of doom and gloom telling anyone who would listen that there was no snow anywhere - well I had a good time skiing, early, as did countless other SHs
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Boris, ditto.
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| Boris wrote: |
stanton, Yes and we've all come to the conclusion that this is entirely based on your desire to have resorts to yourself.
2-years ago, which I admit wasn't the best, you were the voice of doom and gloom telling anyone who would listen that there was no snow anywhere - well I had a good time skiing, early, as did countless other SHs |
I was at my other base in Switzerland then. It was widely acknowledged that the Season 2006/7 was one of the worse seasons on record. If it was not for snow making there would of been no skiing at all.
The Farmers were correct back then & they were right in October 2007 about the 07/08 season.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| stanton wrote: |
| Boris wrote: |
stanton, Yes and we've all come to the conclusion that this is entirely based on your desire to have resorts to yourself.
2-years ago, which I admit wasn't the best, you were the voice of doom and gloom telling anyone who would listen that there was no snow anywhere - well I had a good time skiing, early, as did countless other SHs |
I was at my other base in Switzerland then. It was widely acknowledged that the Season 2006/7 was one of the worse seasons on record. If it was not for snow making there would of been no skiing at all.
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The fact you "widely acknowledged" it does not make it true.
The early part of the season was pretty poor in many places, but not in others.
And there was quite a bit of skiing, particularly late in the season, in places that don't actually have any snow making
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The Farmers were correct back then & they were right in October 2007 about the 07/08 season. |
By October, the Met Office will be providing forecasts rather than statistical analyses.
It is currently only July, and nobody has any real idea what next winter will bring, even overall, never mind in the muntains, or in any given European country.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I skied in Switzerland in Jan 07. It wasn't great but "If it was not for snow making there would have been no skiing at all" is nonsense.
It was bare low down, but high up was fine, plus we got a giant dump of fresh mid-week and I remember it being the coldest I have ever felt. Also skied Austria very late season 07, also fine.
So, in summary, 
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stanton, I skied on natural snow and would have done all week without the aid of snowguns at christmas 2006, so you're generalisation isn't accurate at all. Maybe you need to ski elsewhere to find snow if that was your experience?
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Christopher wrote: |
| stanton, I skied on natural snow and would have done all week without the aid of snowguns at christmas 2006, so you're generalisation isn't accurate at all. Maybe you need to ski elsewhere to find snow if that was your experience? |
Not a generalisation. Not every ski resort is located above 1000M. MANY were not operational .
I ve skied on every continent except antartica although was close
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Poster: A snowHead
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If I remember right it was a tough season for the lower altitude resorts eg les gets, albeit 1800 metres upwards conditions were respectable albeit not outstanding. St anton, for example, in march the snowline was approx 1700 metres although a couple of resort runs open on artificial
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I predict this thread will grow until at least March 08 at which point a "I told you I was right about winter 08/09" thread will start.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| dan100 wrote: |
| If I remember right it was a tough season for the lower altitude resorts eg les gets, albeit 1800 metres upwards conditions were respectable albeit not outstanding. St anton, for example, in march the snowline was approx 1700 metres although a couple of resort runs open on artificial |
Every marked piste in St Anton is made of Artificial Snow. That includes every valley run to St Anton,St Christoph,Nasserein,Rendl.Rauz
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Frosty wrote: |
| I predict this thread will grow until at least March 08 ... |
Kewl - time machine 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Here's a picture of people sitting on the grass above Les Arcs praying for snow late December 2007
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Nice pic, but I'm not sure quite what the message is; many resorts had their best Christmas snow for some time in 2007. No amount of talking about Christmases Past takes us much nearer to a picture of Christmas 2008 (albeit statistically a series of stats about Christmas snow gives us some reasonable pointers about a series of future Christmases).
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| stanton wrote: |
| If it was not for snow making there would of been no skiing at all. |
Those snow cannons are marvellous aren't they!
Hinterglemm, Jan 2007
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ski-finder, to be fair, I think Stanton was talking about the beginning of the season, Christmas time, which was pretty thin in lots of places, with plenty of grass where there should have been snow. But that's nothing new; Christmas snow is often poor. Last year was terrific, but it's not the norm.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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andy, doh ! I meant 09, of course. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| stanton wrote: |
| Christopher wrote: |
| stanton, I skied on natural snow and would have done all week without the aid of snowguns at christmas 2006, so you're generalisation isn't accurate at all. Maybe you need to ski elsewhere to find snow if that was your experience? |
Not a generalisation. Not every ski resort is located above 1000M. MANY were not operational .
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I know you are Dutch, so it is possible this is just a lack of English comprehension, but your English is usually OK, so I doubt it.
The fact that "MANY" meet your criteria, rather tan "ALL" meeting them means that it most certainly was a generalisation when you said "If it was not for snow making there would of been no skiing at all."
If you had said "If it was not for snow making there would of been no skiing at all in some resorts" (or even "in many resorts"), then I dn't think anybody would have argued with what you said.
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| davidof wrote: |
Stanton is correct, without snow making it would not have been possible to ski to resort level for a large part of the season in many French resorts |
he might have been correct if that had been what he had said.
But he didn't, he made far too sweeping a generalisation when he said only "If it was not for snow making there would of been no skiing at all."
If he had meant "down to resort level", or "in many resorts", he should have said that.
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You know it makes sense.
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alex_heney, ah yes but then it wouldn't have been obvious trolling?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
Here's a picture of people sitting on the grass above Les Arcs praying for snow late December 2007
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Nice pic, but I'm not sure quite what the message is; many resorts had their best Christmas snow for some time in 2007. No amount of talking about Christmases Past takes us much nearer to a picture of Christmas 2008 (albeit statistically a series of stats about Christmas snow gives us some reasonable pointers about a series of future Christmases). |
Ooops - this was of course December 2006 not 2007 - I get confused in my old age
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Poster: A snowHead
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There is a 99.9% chance that there will be more or less snow than average. 
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FAQ
