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“Anyone venturing off piste should be carrying a transceiver, a shovel and a probe"

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
achilles,
Quote:

How do you see that statement in his opening post?
I have no particular view on it. All I'm saying is that one can - and many, many people on this forum do! - voice an opinion on a subject without being a currently practising expert in that subject.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Hurtle, most certainly, but they don't start a thread by implying considerable current expertise.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Oh dear. I shouldn't have said 'most' certainly. Forgive me.
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achilles,
Quote:

I shouldn't have said 'most' certainly

Why not? It's an accepted figure of speech.

Looking again at the sentence you quote, it doesn't actually imply to me that DG has skied continuously since he started. He nevertheless seems to know a lot about snow/skiing and it appears to me that he reads widely in the subject too. So he's entitled to voice his opinions. (I'm not saying that the more off-the-wall ones shouldn't be contradicted, mind you, that's a different issue.)
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
...and I think I have been too obsessed with this thread. I shall try to block it out of my vision for a few days - or forever. There. That should please Yoda.
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snowball, perhaps not common parlance- sorry

by inbounds I mean off piste accessible from the lifts and returning to them without much of a walk at all- usually visible from the piste-usually within the avalanche controlled areas (gasex/catex etc)- if in North America would be inbounds but unpisted- in Europe with a couple of exceptions- off piste. In the Vamos off piste guide books this usually gets 'not serious or quite serious' in terms of commitment- meaning 'away from the marked runs but visible from them and finishing on the piste'- compared with 'serious- little chance of being seen in case of an accident. Furthermore , alerting the rescue services will take a certain amount of time'

Some examples; Argentiere- inbounds -everything accessible from the Herse chair lift, from Bochard the front side, from Grands Montets Grand Mur (which is not glaciated and is controlled by gasex but is a bit isolated) but not Rognon etc (which isn't and is glaciated-badly) under Tabe chairlift; outbounds- Pas de Chevre, all the routes on the Argentiere glacier, Face.

I am not proposing that anybody skis these sorts of places without avvy gear- but I do suggest that this is safer than over the back- away from the avalanche controlled slopes. I'll find the stats from Hors Piste regarding safety of this.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Hurtle, OK, I saw your post when I had posted mine - so I will respond - but then I must go. I would have though to say 'most certain' implied there was a greater certainty than certain, and was therefore illogical; but I bow to you as senior pedant.

I don't recall anybody saying here that David was not entitle to view his opinions. I interpreted your question to mean that you wondered what the relevance of David's currency was to this thread. It seems my interpretation was wrong. I grovel. Now I really must bow out. I have spent too long here for my own (and I suspect everybody else's) good.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Make of this what you will- copied from Hors Piste

Some information from the ANENA’s magazine Neige et Avalanche (Oct 2007 - ISSN - see the ANENA’s site if you want to subscribe).

The ANENA were informed of 81 avalanche incidents, 54 accidents with 16 accidents involving fatalities with 20 deaths (same as our figures).

Victim Profiles
90% of the victims were male, slightly above the long term average. The average age was 37 although if you break this down to ski touring the age is 39 and for off-piste 29.

6 of the victims were non-French, which is close to the 28% average and a reason why we take avalanche information so seriously.

Three of the victims were pros, there were the two ski instructors from Areches and a Swiss high mountain guide (see PisteHors report).

Of the French victims 20% lived in the mountains, 20% in the valleys and 15% in the foothills. These are obviously the people who can ski the most but it also shows that living in proximity to the mountains doesn’t necessarily give you any special wisdom.

Equipment
As is clear from the PisteHors report and confirmed in detail by the ANENA ski tourers tend to be better equipped. None of the off-piste or climbing victims had basic safety gear of avalanche beacon, probe or shovel.

Once again we see that an Avalanche Beacon is not a silver bullet but more a joker. Only 3 from 10 victims who were rescued thanks to their beacon survived. 9 victims were recovered due to surface indications, 5 survived (here we can see that the ABS airbag and possibly the avalanche ball are useful tools). All 4 victims found by rescue dogs were dead.
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I agree that statistics are very relevant to whether the advice heading this thread is appropriate. There's no point in everyone - anyone - gearing themselves up if the risk of avalanche burial is negligible for their level and exposure of skiing.
Given that the advice is geared to off-piste novices (others will have developed some degree of intuitive and acquired knowledge) here is a question:

How may novice off-piste skiers (who may well be in led groups or instructed classes on mellow terrain, selected for safety by their leaders) are buried by avalanches each year?

Probably the answer is 'very very few' - that the vast majority of avalanche deaths are to people who have had the opportunity to develop knowledge but have probably disregarded local warnings.

I maintain that novice off-piste skiers can safely enjoy a substantial taste of off-piste skiing without shovel or probe - unless their leaders (typically instructors) specify that they must have them. And that's based on what I strongly suspect is the very very low risk involved.
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Quote:
I maintain that novice off-piste skiers can safely enjoy a substantial taste of off-piste skiing without shovel or probe

As a novice off-pister I wouldn't disagree with that - when in previous years I've done little bits (between pistes, say) I haven't had the gear. I wouldn't have dreamed of not having everything in La Grave, though. And while I know I need training on transceivers & probes, at least if one of the group in La Grave had got into trouble I could have shovelled rather than stand around like the proverbial spare c0ck at a wedding!
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David Goldsmith,

That's like saying the risk of catching the clap (or some other STD) is so low, a virgin doesn't need to wear a (rubber) helmet.


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Thu 6-03-08 11:27; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Bear in mind that the bulk of skiing done at La Grave is on the classic routes down the mountain which - over generations - have not killed people in avalanches. The risk is really confined to the more remote terrain. La Grave's regular trails can be quite happily skied without avalanche kit, unless there are local warnings to the contrary.

The classic La Grave routes are arguably 'off-piste' in the modern sense (unpatrolled itineraires) but 'piste' in the historic sense: skier-tracked trails.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
DB, that's not an attempt to start another helmet thread, is it? Smile

I meant to add in my previous post, that I reckon even if in low-risk off-piste areas, having and knowing how to use the gear is a good habit to get into, but your way is so much more colourful! Cool
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I'd be interested to know when the last person died in an avalanche while skiing from the lifts of La Grave (I think a CAF touring group got caught somewhere around there a few years back but that's not what I am asking about). I get the feeling that far more people die from falls in LG

LG is a bit of a funny place in that respect. You shouldn't assume that you anyone has made any safety decisions on your behalf (eg. we were having to pick our route down the Vallons de la Meije very carefully one day last season when the avalanche danger was rated 4) but they do shut the lift if it gets really dangerous
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
For the record, and contrary to what some have posted on this thread...

I did a guided/instructed Freshtracks holiday as a novice off-piste skier this year. I was issued with a transceiver, but was not instructed in its use and no practice session was held. We were not issued with shovels or probes, though I believe a few of the participants had their own. We went off-piste every day: most (but not all) of the time, we were within sight of pistes and on what appeared to me - no expert - to be easy slopes. The Ski Club leader alternated between groups: this meant that we did not, every day, have an experienced back marker.

I wasn't wildly impressed with all of this, nor with the fact that, on the day I accidentally became separated from the rest of my party (on piste, I hasten to say) I was unable to communicate with the instructor/guide, since he didn't have his mobile phone on him. However, I can honestly say that I didn't feel unsafe at any time during the week - I am competent to get myself around anywhere on piste and, off the piste, the terrain was gentle. But, as many have said, apparently gentle terrain is not always avalanche-proof, so maybe I was silly not to worry...????

Oh yes, I also skied with the Ski Club resort rep a few times in the same holiday. We went off-piste a few times, always within sight of the piste and on slopes which again looked perfectly safe. We were all issued with transceivers, but not instructed how to use them. Again I wasn't worried, but that was partly because I knew the rep and trusted him not to take a bunch of beginners anywhere remotely avalanche-prone. Again, perhaps I was too trusting...???
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I maintain that novice off-piste skiers can safely enjoy a substantial taste of off-piste skiing without shovel or probe - unless their leaders (typically instructors) specify that they must have them. And that's based on what I strongly suspect is the very very low risk involved.

Stories from two friends of mine, both who are good skiers but would not claim to have great avalanche/mountain craft skills:

Friend A skied off-piste with a guide (this is 7-8 years ago) had a great time, avalanche risk 3 - they had transceivers but not probes/shovels although their guide did. Next day, the guide they had skied with was killed in an avalanche when guiding clients.

Friend B heliskiing from Cormayeur (2-3 years ago) - guide and another of the party were caught in an avalanche, both buried chest deep but uninjured. Again the clients had transceivers but not shovels/probes.

This year, I was guided in Alagna. In the briefing he told us that he had dug a guide and trainee guide out of an avalanche 2 days before - they were hospitalised but OK.

My point - guides go first and DO sometimes get caught in avalanches. Do you think it is morally acceptable to follow them around knowing that there would be little you can do if they were caught in avalanches? Guides are pragmatic, they know that many clients would be useless even if they were carrying the kit. They know they can't train every group before they ski with them. I personally don't think that absolves clients from learning about and equipping themselves for avalanche rescue. The guides may accept the risk (it goes with the job, etc.) but that does not mean that we shouldn't help reduce it.

Cheers,

J
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
! Serioulsly Le Grave needs to be treated with alot of respect not just from an avalanch point of view and arne I am wiht you here think it is more down to falls rather than avalanche just like Dougn coombs Crying or Very sad The avalanch risk guide is just that A guide it is no guarantee of anything avalanches though rare still occour when the warning level is 1!!

Was in France a few years back with Wilder places and the papers where full of the usual world is going to end news and the guide picked up the local paper which carried a story of the high number oc avalanch deaths that season and he simply

There are alot of things in the world that you cant control but should worry about in the mountains there are 2 things you cant control but can be well prepared for weather and avalanches and you should be Shitting yourself about both going wrong and not being prepared Shocked I needed to change my underwear snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I've started carrying a transceiver, shovel and probe this year.

For me this decision was based on the following questions...

Do you ski in areas that may be prone to avalanches?

Do you carry a backpack anyway?

Do you ski with friends?

If the answer to all 3 of these questions is yes then I'd say get the stuff.

It was only after researching the statistics and watching avalanches on youtube (in places i've skied) that I realised that for years I'd been skiing in "dodgy" terrain. The thing with skiing is that it's a slow steady learning curve and before you realise it you're off piste jumping off small drops and wearing exactly the same gear as you did on the nursery slopes. If you're unlucky you don't get the wake up call until it's too late.

People think transceivers/shovels/probes are an unecessary expense, just think how much you spend on a new pair of skis - you can buy all 3 items for less than those shiny new skis.

Imagine having to tell your mate's wife or kids that their daddy is dead because although he was wearing a transceiver you didn't think it was necessary so couldn't find him or dig him out.

In the last 3 years I've started wearing/carrying... helmet, spine protector, padded shorts, transceiver, probe and shovel.

But hey that's just my opinion and I would never dream of demanding my friends/family do the same, I'd just point out the reasons why I do.

Cheers

BB
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David Goldsmith, "Bear in mind that the bulk of skiing done at La Grave is on the classic routes down the mountain which - over generations - have not killed people in avalanches. The risk is really confined to the more remote terrain. La Grave's regular trails can be quite happily skied without avalanche kit, unless there are local warnings to the contrary."

Up to a point. About three weeks ago I was stood at the P2 beacon basin with a guided group and one of the security guys doing beacon drills - just basic stuff, I'm no expert in this respect. He asked us what the risk was and we replied two. He told us we were wrong, the risk was one and it only said two on the signs in the telepherique as they didn't have any signs for risk one. He mentioned that avi deaths are fairly rare in LG but that someone got slid and killed in Triffides 1 last year iirc (I could easily be wrong here my French is not so hot).

About five minutes later a serac fall from the right hand side of the Meije as you face it from P2 sent the largest avalanche (100m or so wide falling c. 1000m) I have ever seen down into the zone interdit - a risky area but hardly off the beaten track. Neatly makes the point about judging the terrain not the number on the avalanche risk board and also that large parts of the terrain right next to the major routes are potentially lethal. Had that hit anyone they would have been in extremely deep trouble- I would imagine being hit full on would have killed you immediately. I wouldn't touch the place without avi gear but that wouldn't be the first or last thing on my set of precautions.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Hurtle, that isn't good...

To defend Achilles, I can understand why he might be a bit tired of David posting about avalanche matters when David seems to adhere the "not skiing is the safest way of avoiding avalanches" method with "take red string and no shovel" as second choice. wink
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bucking bronco, bang on. You are right in every respect (and I just love to argue the toss over everything).

My only change would be 'do you ski with friends' to 'do you ski with others' (see can't resist). I suppose this overs the point that some have made about skiing with a guide but only the guide having a shovel and probe.

For anybody interested the book 'Staying alive in avalanche terrain' is very good- especially Chapter 10 'The Human Factor' which discusses all the issues that crop up time and again here on snowheads whenever skiing off piste is mentioned- the chapter sets out the problems associated with the subjective element of risk assessment- that is; peoples own assessments of their abilities to assess avalanche risk- which varies over time- with experience and adverse experience changing it massively (starts high- ignorance is bliss- then massively deacreases- you learn what you don't know- then increases- until disaster strikes- near miss or fatality of friend undermines confidence) or by individual- where is your stupid line- ie what level of risk can you tolerate- some have a very ow stupid line- risk averse some a very high stupid line- risk happy...etc or by circumstance- becoming more tolerant/lulled as the day goes on (there is a horrific series of videos linked in to the BCA website about a horrible tragedy in the US which really sets this out- "just one more turn' I think its called) or eaten away by lossed oppertunities- for me it is very very interesting as therest of my life is based around difficult risk assessments and trying to work out why others have made what turn out to have been really cr4p decisions.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Some probes / shovels can be a bit of work to assemble, every second more getting these in working order is a second taken away from the few minutes search time. Probably a god ideal to time yourself getting these two items out of the backpack and assembled, repeat until there's no improvement in the time taken.

Two more less than cheerful reasons to wear a transceiver when sking off-piste, if the worse happens ....

1) The rescue teams put themselves at risk when searching for your burried body. (some people have been hit by further avalanches and killed while searching for others in the snow). A transceiver reduces this risk as it helps them to find you earlier.

2) A body without a transceiver is very hard to find it can take days rather than hours in some cases. Worst case it might still be there until the snow starts to thaw - I'm guessing our familes/friends would want it back sooner.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
edsilva wrote:
Once again we see that an Avalanche Beacon is not a silver bullet but more a joker. Only 3 from 10 victims who were rescued thanks to their beacon survived. 9 victims were recovered due to surface indications, 5 survived (here we can see that the ABS airbag and possibly the avalanche ball are useful tools). All 4 victims found by rescue dogs were dead.
These are stark facts and really stand out on this thread. Over the years I've seen many other stats and they are similar. Obviously the general idea of skiing/boarding in avalanche prone areas is to avoid the avalanche in the first place. That's obvious. BUT... such stats are telling us that, should we be unlucky enough to get caught, the chances of survival (even with a beacon) is approx 30%. The stats make no mention of what state you are in having survived. I suspect only the blessed few walk away, others get mangled - badly injured with life-long consequences but count as "survivors". I honestly believe that many of those who sit behind a desk for 48 weeks a year, buy all the gear, do a small amount of training/practice/reading and think that they're protected somehow. They're not. Their odds of a full & healthy life are improved by a very small %. Shops happily sell the stuff, guides & Ski Club reps happily hand it out without training. It's mad. Nuttier than Nut Cutlet with extra nuts and a side order of nuts. I've not been caught in an avalanche but I have witnessed a few and I don't fancy my chances with any amount of training or equipment. But I still do it of course.
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Yes, the reason you do it (I imagine) is that the risk of avalanche burial is very very low if sensible precautions are taken. I have one friend who died in an avalanche in Verbier in the late 1970s - Willy Bailey, a one-time member of the British Ski Team - and one ski instructor friend who's been buried and dug out by his class. Willy sadly pushed his luck on a risky slope and is quite unrepresentative of the kind of people that the advice heading this thread is aimed at.

That's the sum total over 4+ decades, covering a very large number of ski friends and acquaintances who are often skiing off-piste. I've never known one of those people to ski with a shovel and probe, in ordinary off-piste skiing situations, and very few using transceivers (more are carrying them now). For instance, I used to ski with many members of the UK ski equipment trade, who really go for it in terms of 'free-riding', and I can't recall a single one of them ever dying in an avalanche.

Any other anecdotal info. welcome, as we might gradually build a picture of the relative risk.
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stoatsbrother wrote:
To defend Achilles, I can understand why he might be a bit tired of David posting about avalanche matters when David seems to adhere the "not skiing is the safest way of avoiding avalanches" method with "take red string and no shovel" as second choice. wink


Yeah, yeah, I know, I know, but the point about his recent skiing, which is a bit of a red herring, really has been done to death imv... ahem, by you as well as by achilles and I say this as a great fan of you both! Toofy Grin
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
David Goldsmith, if you're saying that few people are killed by avalanches anyway, so nobody need worry much too much, I'd like a lot more than mere anecdotal evidence to support this contention. But that aside, one avoidable death could reasonably be considered one too many could it not? And it simply stands to reason that if someone is buried by an avalanche, that person stands a better chance (maybe only a slight chance, but that's better than nothing) of being saved, if there is someone nearby who is equipped to track him and dig him out. It's plain that I have no off-piste experience worth speaking of, but I think that logic is on my side. Or am I missing something?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Bode Swiller wrote:
Obviously the general idea of skiing/boarding in avalanche prone areas is to avoid the avalanche in the first place.


Not just picking up on what you personally say here (so this is in no way a dig), but this phrase is repeated a lot one way or another. So I have to ask, I can't help myself; Is it such a good idea to put yourself in a likely avalanche path and trust that you are simply there on the right day?

If you don't have the time to carry out assessments from the early freezes, have the local info, the repeated observations, the space to safely cut and see what happens what are you doing skiing on an uncontrolled avi PRONE slope in the first place? Why not pick an aspect with decent anchors for the snowpack, trees, less chance of loading?

I'm prone to drinking on friday night. Anyone fancy betting their life on my sobriety tomorrow night?

For touring skiers the 'death rate' seems lower, despite often being in nominally higher risk terrain, and I think that's largely because the protocols for crossing avalanche prone terrain are taken so much more seriously - Unless you have to; don't, and if you must at least plan an escape and go one at a time.

If you google "Avalanche Deaths in <resort>" you get the same locations year after year killing 'recreational' skiiers. I have no doubt that some of these can be skiied safely (Tignes has some good examples of this) but these areas ARE prone to avalanche, so the snow pack is always going to be pretty precarious. If you want to ski them that badly, quit that 48 week a year desk job and spend some serious time making sure you hit them on the right day.



This is the thought process that informs my decisions as a recreational, holidaying skiier, anyway. Flame away.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:

If you ski off piste at all you are likely to ski sometimes when the avalanche level is not low, so you need the kit. The kit is not just for your benefit but for the benefit of those who you might save. The fact you are skiing (probably) in a safe place does not mean that others nearby are. If you were close and couldn't help because you didn't have the equipment and people died, how would you feel?


I 100% agree with you Snowball. If we were all to question ourselves if is necessary to carry our own kit due to the perceived cost of such kit and/or question our level of responsibility to other skiers and whether it is our "place" to have the means to rescue people or not, and as a result of those questions for nobody carry their own kit at all then the world would be a bit of a sorry place. And far less lives saved I would have thought. Which is a bad thing.

Quote:

Like Kramer, every guide I've ever skied with has required everyone in the group to have a transceiver - and provided one free of charge if you didn't have your own. SCGB and Snoworks holidays also provide transceivers for everyone as part of the package (and I assume other organisations do the same).


Yes they do. I have had transceiver, shovel and probe provided to me, and everyone else in the group had they not had their own equipment at the time if any off piste was to be skied whether close to the piste markers or far away. The relevant instructor guide also tested our transceivers to ensure that they were transmitting before venturing out.

Quote:

I have owned by own transceiver for about nine seasons as well as ski probe. As I have averaged about three weeks off piste skiing per season over that period the cost of my safety equipment is a few quid a week which is absolutely minimal in relation to what I pay for a week of off piste skiing.


My thoughts exactly. Its not as if a shovel, transceiver and probe is going to go out of fashion is it and a new load of kit will be needed to match your the new skis. Besides personally I don't think that the equipment in question is expensive really compared to the relative costs of skiing in the grand scheme of things. Some people might spend more than the cost of avi equipment on one ski jacket/one pair of skis/10 shop ski tunes (unless one tunes own skis!). Kinda puts it into perspective doesn't it. Personally if I was unfortunate enough to be caught in an avalanche I'd like to think that other people would be willing (and be able) to dig me out and hopefully save my life. Conversely I am very happy to carry my own kit so that I can do the same for others if I am lucky enough to be unscathed. The whole point about avalanches is they can not be predicted or avoided all of the time. Yes precautions can be taken not to ski in certain places but you can never be 100% sure, after all everyone who has ever been in an avalanche probably thought it was going to be ok to ski and then it wasn't otherwise its doubtful that they would have skied there in the first place. I'm glad to say that I've never been in one and sincerely hope I don't either, I'm sure it must be a terrifying experience.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
David , The trouble is your logic contains a potential internal flaw:

1) "the risk of avalanche burial is very very low if sensible precautions are taken"

2) Therefore anyone who is killed by an avalanche could have prevented it by taking sensible precautions....

which becomes a sort of circular argument.

I have skied with 3 people in the last 3 years who have been avalanched, (one only a partial burial), so I am not sure how rare it is, or whether all the faster rescues make the stats.

The key sentences in your post perhaps are "I used to ski with many members of the UK ski equipment trade" and "(more are carrying them now)." You are - perhaps - describing a pattern of behaviour from the more distant past and portraying it as currently appropriate or normal. (and that, dear Hurtle, is the reason recent skiing experience is relevant).

What I do know is that in the last few years, when I have been skiing more interesting stuff in North America, a large proportion of skiers and boarders out there are now carrying the gear.

Are they properly trained? Is this about macho fashion accessories? I don't know...

I do know however that I cannot guarantee that the human factors that I bring to the slope will not get me into trouble one day - not because the gear makes me feel immune, but because I need to develop more skill in reading terrain etc - and I am a human being who is fallible, and knows it. I also want to be able to help those who might help me. Back to ethics again.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hurtle, From memory about 150 skiers die in the Alps each year in avalanches. That means the risk of death is (very ballpark figure) probably a lot lower than 1 in 100,000. But you'll find the people who died pushed their luck, typically, and didn't follow local warnings.

I'll probably carry on off-piste skiing without avalanche kit because I think the danger is exaggerated and generally avoidable. Yes, avalanches are big and scary, they're very photogenic (great on TV documentaries) and easy to 'sell' and dramatise as a risk ... but when all's said and done the majority of off-piste skiers can avoid them. Those skiing the wilder slopes and touring the back-country more extensively obviously need to learn a lot more and heed the advice of guides etc. (including any equipment they might specify).
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
David Goldsmith wrote:
Hurtle, From memory about 150 skiers die in the Alps each year in avalanches. That means the risk of death is (very ballpark figure) probably a lot lower than 1 in 100,000. But you'll find the people who died pushed their luck, typically, and didn't follow local warnings.

I'll probably carry on off-piste skiing without avalanche kit because I think the danger is exaggerated and generally avoidable. Yes, avalanches are big and scary, they're very photogenic (great on TV documentaries) and easy to 'sell' and dramatise as a risk ... but when all's said and done the majority of off-piste skiers can avoid them. Those skiing the wilder slopes and touring the back-country more extensively obviously need to learn a lot more and heed the advice of guides etc. (including any equipment they might specify).

All very interesting, but you've evidenced absolutely none of this and my instinct tells me that it's nonsense, I'm afraid. Also, you didn't deal with my 'one avoidable death is one death too many' point. Anyway, from my position of almost total ignorance, I approve of the SCGB advice, so I guess we shall have to agree to differ.
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stoatsbrother,
Quote:

You are - perhaps - describing a pattern of behaviour from the more distant past and portraying it as currently appropriate or normal. (and that, dear Hurtle, is the reason recent skiing experience is relevant).


No, I don't think that the fact more people carry the kit nowadays is relevant to the basic argument either. The argument is: what are the risks and can they be minimised by people carrying the kit? But - to argue against myself now - as someone has already said, there are more people skiing off-piste nowadays than heretofore, and the statistical risk of someone getting caught is therefore higher. That aspect has not, at least expressly, been factored in by David and is indeed a modern phenomenon of which he may not have direct experience.

More statistics required all round, I feel. wink
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I've been looking for some stats, but don't find anything that collates, say, the Alps in any specific year. I may well not be using a sensible search string. Any suggestions?

(VolklAttivaS5 - great name, great skis!)
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David are you dividing the total number of people sking in the alps by 150 or the number of people who actually go off pist in the alps?
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Bode Swiller wrote:
edsilva wrote:
Once again we see that an Avalanche Beacon is not a silver bullet but more a joker. Only 3 from 10 victims who were rescued thanks to their beacon survived. 9 victims were recovered due to surface indications, 5 survived (here we can see that the ABS airbag and possibly the avalanche ball are useful tools). All 4 victims found by rescue dogs were dead.
These are stark facts and really stand out on this thread. Over the years I've seen many other stats and they are similar. Obviously the general idea of skiing/boarding in avalanche prone areas is to avoid the avalanche in the first place. That's obvious. BUT... such stats are telling us that, should we be unlucky enough to get caught, the chances of survival (even with a beacon) is approx 30%. The stats make no mention of what state you are in having survived. I suspect only the blessed few walk away, others get mangled - badly injured with life-long consequences but count as "survivors". I honestly believe that many of those who sit behind a desk for 48 weeks a year, buy all the gear, do a small amount of training/practice/reading and think that they're protected somehow. They're not. Their odds of a full & healthy life are improved by a very small %. Shops happily sell the stuff, guides & Ski Club reps happily hand it out without training. It's mad. Nuttier than Nut Cutlet with extra nuts and a side order of nuts. I've not been caught in an avalanche but I have witnessed a few and I don't fancy my chances with any amount of training or equipment. But I still do it of course.
sorry I quoted Hors Piste

but I think you have misunderstood the point I was making.

Most people who are caught in avalanches aren't buried to the extent that a beacon is required to find them, but for those that are buried- the chance of finding them alive with a beacon is less tan 50%- but if you/your mates/wife/husband don't have a shovel and probe as well as a beacon the time taken to extract a buried victim is massive- and deadly.

So either- take your chances - like David Goldsmith- and many others for that matter- ski off piste at 3 and below with no gear- might as well ski alone - many do- but depending on the numbers of days you ski, the number of avalanche prone slopes you cross per day / trigger/ get caught- your life expectancy will decrease- on average. That said if you keep to slopes of the right aspect (ie not NE N NW facing) and don't ski just after snowfall (right) chances are you'll be fine.........

Alternatively read a book or two on avalanches, look at Hors Piste / BCA websites, practice in a beacon basin, carry a shovel /probe/beacon- buy same for wife for Xmas (need other gifts to prevent divorce proceedings) recognise that you have quite a few known and unknown unknowns (I love that expression- who said Rumsfeld was a war mongering so and so) and then take your chances- with or without a guide as your experience develops. For about £300- (which is barely the price of a good lunch) and a few hours of interesting reading why not?
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PS I have a long history of what could be seen as reckless behaviour mostly to do with outdoor pursuits and all when I was a lot younger/ less fat/ no wife / no kids.

Lots of climbers solo hard routes alone (ie no rope no one else- recently a Swiss guide soloed the North Face of the Eiger in less than 4hrs) this is about risk assessment- objective and subjective- am I fit / good enough/ are the condtions OK/ will the weather hold/ what is the quality of the rock & ice/ can I climb fast enoughto avoid stone fall etc....

all very similar to avalanche risk assessments- or any other type

for some people they are quite happy to take what others would see as extreme risks- but it is important to know what the options are and where your own abilities fit in

the most reckless are those for whom ignorance is bliss........even thought they might not be taking a massive objective risk the problem is they have no idea what risk they are taking- so can't do anything to modify their exposure/ manage it.
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Re: determining the statistical risk of being killed by an avalanche:

Ordhan wrote:
David are you dividing the total number of people sking in the alps by 150 or the number of people who actually go off pist in the alps?

The former. I doubt if there's any data on the latter, but personal observation would suggest - say - 1 in 5.
Hurtle wrote:

All very interesting, but you've evidenced absolutely none of this and my instinct tells me that it's nonsense, I'm afraid.

Fair enough. There's very likely to be hard data of annual avalanche deaths and the population of European skiers. All this essentially boils down to subjective personal judgement of whether to carry avalanche kit. For instance, different people might take a different view if the risk is 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 100,000. For me personally it would make no difference. At 1 in 1000 I'd carry the kit.
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Thanks David I am loving this thread and the opinions on it I joked that it would be as divisive as helmets but it seems to be going that way

Quote:

PS I have a long history of what could be seen as reckless behaviour mostly to do with outdoor pursuits and all when I was a lot younger/ less fat/ no wife / no kids


Edsilvia Intresting to see how risk analysis changes with personal factors! Buy the way is risk taking perportionate to belly size?

I know myself I have done many stupid things in my life and still do but wouldnt dream about taking risks while skiing Puzzled Dont know why maybe it was the enviroment I was thuoght to ski and the people that where teaching me.
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It seems to me that anyone who skis a lot offpiste has a very high chance of being involved in an avalanche in some way. In fact given enough time I'd say it was almost inevitable.
My guide has been avalanched skiing a slope first ahead of us (a small avalanche but in a steep gulley), and I have been avalanched with 7 others in another incident, and in a third incident I helped dig a snowboarder out (though his head was never buried - we saw it happen from the lift and went to help). Another friend was in a tiny wet-snow slip which imprisoned his legs and he needed to be dug out, (though given about an hour he could probably have freed himself - It took us about 10 minutes with spades to free him and his skis). In addition I have twice been next to a fracture point when an avalanche went off - once we were traversing above a gulley (not sure if the rep had planned to ski it ) and the other long ago when I knew nothing about snowcraft and shouldn't have been there and felt lucky to be alive when I got off the slope (a crack appeared above me and the slope below me went over an edge down onto rocky pinnacles).
This is over a period of about 15 years. Of course I have skied with loads of people - most but not all guides, who have been avalanched or help dig people out - several of the latter involving deaths.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 7-03-08 18:05; edited 2 times in total
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It's great advice as everyone (who's anyone) knows that the ever so holy trinity of carrying TX, spade and sticky-in-thing means you'll never be caught in an avalanche. It's an old mystical charter or something.

Otherwise you'd need to have some awareness of the risks of off piste skiing, avalanche danger and such like. And they don't sell that as a self loading SD card module when you buy your snowboard or fat skis.
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