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A snowy start to Whistler's winter?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
According to America's Climate Prediction Centre, "current atmospheric conditions...and observed oceanic trends indicate La Niña conditions will further develop and possibly strengthen during the next 3 months." In other words, it's predicting a wetter-than-average start to the winter in the Pacific Northwest.

Of course, we are talking here about long-range weather forecasting, which is not exactly a safe bet. But La Niña has in the past been one of the more reliable indicators of conditions in Whistler. Could it really be that it's heading for another awesome start to the winter?

One factor that will help to determine its impact is the strength of the phenomenon, which so far has looked to be fairly weak. But now the NOAA is suggesting it might grow more powerful over the coming months...

Check out the full story at http://www.welove2ski.com/jsp/index.jsp?lnk=201&id=46.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Please... Madeye-Smiley Laughing
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Sean Newsom, Oh pleeeeeeeeease. We're off there on Dec 7th for a week so that would be just fine! Very Happy
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geetee, I've got my fingers all crossed for you! Which of course makes typing quite difficult...
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Sean Newsom, any articles in the Times coming up soon??
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Shouldn't this be in the Snow Reports section?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nah, just info, not a report on actual snow falling
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 brian
brian
Guest
Sean Newsom wrote:
But La Niña has in the past been one of the more reliable indicators of conditions in Whistler.


This is true, but nobody (including NOAA) has anything like a decent record in predicting ENSO. We're not into official La Nina territory yet and while they think it's going that way, they could well be wrong.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
rayscoops, next ski features in the ST should be coming in October. Don't know how I'm going to type them, what with my fingers being crossed for geetee...

brian, do you know of anyone who's got an alternative view to NOAA? It stated in its September 6 report that, "Collectively, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflect La Niña conditions" which seems as though they think it's already up and running. It would be great to get a second opinion.

Interestingly, the Met Office was allowing itself to be quoted back in July that La Niña was already having an impact on British weather. Seemed a bit premature!
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 brian
brian
Guest
Sean Newsom, if you like a bit of weather geekery (that's hardcore weather geekery, not the facile amateur hour that occasionally breaks out on here Embarassed ), there's an interesting thread here:

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/10364.aspx

Anyway, to be classed as an official La Nina by NOAA, something called the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) has to be -0.5 or lower for (I think) 3 months. It hasn't crossed this threshold yet, despite the majority of models predicting it would right throughout this year. So we're still officially ENSO neutral but trending to La Nina, which I think has been the case for about 9 months now.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Sean Newsom, thank you so much for your kind act. I'd hate to see your professional career suffer though so if you want to just cross fingers on one hand then maybe you could type with the other? Very Happy

Mind you, I don't know how I'm going to be able to keep typing as I'll be starting my snow dance soon. Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
geetee, you have not read his work yet wink just joking Little Angel
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
brian, thanks very much for the link! Could it be that "ENSO neutral but trending to La Nina" is just a very mild episode of the phenomenon?

And geetee, snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead

I'm dancing with you! Though this too is difficult because my toes are also crossed.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Please be wrong! ENSO can stay neutral thank you very much!
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 brian
brian
Guest
Winterhighland, I'm guessing you think there's some correlation between La Nina and poor Scottish winters ? Any stats ?
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 brian
brian
Guest
At the risk of pissing off snowangel. completely wink , here's a table of the ONI since 1950, if anyone would like to try and spot correlations to snowy times at their station au choix.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

(My advice, fwiw, for this side of the pond, don't waste your time).
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
There are various conflicting thoughts on ENSO impact on our weather, neutral ENSO seems a safer bet!

One school of thought is that stronger El Ninos and stronger La Ninos increase the Westerly component to our weather thus zonality, giving poorer summers and milder winters.

The 1998 El Nino for DJF was +2.4 and brought a truly awful ski season. The 1992 season was +1.8 for DJF and was also truly rank. The worst Scottish Ski Seasons in terms of zonal washouts do have some casual relationship to the winters with the strongest El Ninos.

However winter 1989 was a strong La Nino winter and was also crap. There have however been good seasons that were strongish La Nino winters, such as 1999.

Neutral ENSO does not mean good winters however, 1990 being an example of a poor season with neutral ENSO, what it does do is remove one potential negative factor from the equation and makes 'local' factors like the NAO and AO more important. Either this winter or next winter will be a Halle winter, they come along every 22-24 years (representing 2 sunspot cycles) and we don't want a strong ENSO robbing us of what from historical records is a big forcing factor in favour of a cold winter.

In recent times it seems as if moderate La Ninos trend towards giving us better winters. 1996 and 2001 were both moderate La Nino winters and excellent ski seasons. Stronger La Nino winters could go either way there are examples of very good (1999) and truly awful (1989) winters.

Anyone care to match up these ENSO stats with solar cycles and the NAO? Puzzled
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Sean Newsom wrote:
According to America's Climate Prediction Centre, "current atmospheric conditions...and observed oceanic trends indicate La Niña conditions will further develop and possibly strengthen during the next 3 months." In other words, it's predicting a wetter-than-average start to the winter in the Pacific Northwest.



Hope to be there at ThxGiving - Edge Card is loaded! And if it's half as good as last year's ThxGiving - well - there'll only be 15cm of pow each day Cool
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Winterhighland, interesting you mention the Halle sunspot cycles. These are big part of Piers Corbyn's forecasting system, aren't they? He's been talking about a wet and stormy end to the year across western Europe for that reason.
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