 Poster: A snowHead
|
Helen Beaumont, holidayloverxx, I remember 87 for heavy snow, we had just moved to the south east and there was a couple of feet. I got a week off school  I also remember a few years later, after I'd just started skiing it snowed and there were some people on skis in one of the local parks
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Whitegold wrote
| Quote: |
gutfeel prediction
|
how does the forecasting reliability of gutfeel compare to that of marmottes? If you can't quantify it....
However, there is every reason to believe an optimistic winter snow forecast compared to a pessimistic one. Better for our health. There's something comforting, as summer stutters to a close, about settling down for a solid four or five months of complete pointless but enjoyable speculation and anticipation. When beginner (?holiday) skiers ask whether they will have nice snow for their holiday real skiers suck their teeth and tell them that nobody knows. But when Snowheads chat about jetstreams and sunspot cycles it feels more grown up. Bring it on. Meanwhile, I'm off on my bike to find some samphire before it rains.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
THE forecast for the 2007/08 season.
There will be heavy snowfalls, leading to fantastic powder days under clear blue skies.
Caveat
The chances of the above forecast being accurate for the resort you are going to visit are not necessarily high.
If the above forecast does happen to be accurate for the resort you are going to visit, the chances of it being accurate for when you are there are not necessarily high.
Life’s like that.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
I asked hubby last night about the snow/cold in 1985. He remembers snow, as we were sledging in Backhouse Park in SUnderland on a teatray. It couldn't have been any other winter but that one, because of the group of people we were with.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turns out Piers Corbyn is a pal of my FIL. Evidently he used to place bets on his long-range forecasts until Ladbrokes refused to accept them any more because he was too accurate and he was taking too much dosh off them 
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
eng_ch, yes, I posted something similar above. But is he really accurate or is he just good at spotting inaccuracy in the bookies' pricing ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sorry, just having flashbacks - 27th January 1985 was also the time we got stuck in Aviemore when all the roads south became blocked (drifting snow). We had to get the train back to Glasgow, which took over 6 hours as they had to send a train with a snow plough down the line before our train.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
brian, my FIL's known him for donkeys' years and he's rarely been wrong yet apparently
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
eng_ch, lets hope he's right this year too.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Does anyone know what his predictions are for the remainder of the season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Apropos of nothing, Piers Corbyn's brother is Jeremy Corbyn who some people describe as a maverick Labour MP. Perhaps maverickism runs in the family?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| Quote: |
Sorry, just having flashbacks - 27th January 1985 was also the time we got stuck in Aviemore when all the roads south became blocked (drifting snow). We had to get the train back to Glasgow, which took over 6 hours as they had to send a train with a snow plough down the line before our train.
|
I remember being on a sleeper from London back up to Scotland - they used to stop in Kilmarnock in those days, but there was so much snow the sleeper was making unscheduled stops to picked up commuters, who were all standing in the corridor, like sardines. Eventually I simply had to go to the loo, then I had to do the decent thing and invite a load of commuters in to sit on my bed. When I got off at Kilmarnock, very late, it took me a while to get home because of the snow. Only to find that my husband, despite my nagging for at least 3 weeks previously, had failed to order any central heating oil and he and the kids were in anoraks, huddling round a camping gaz cooker. But the kids had a ball on a T tray in the garden.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
pam w...and the consequence was...you went to live in Hampshire!
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
I read in another post (the enormously long thread) that the farmers in the Jungfrau region are expecting heavy, early snow this year, and they haven't expected it in the past few years, they are expecting something different this year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| Quote: |
Hurtle, talk about a sad ending
|
No brian, we didn't leave Ayrshire to come to Hampshire. We left Ayrshire, early one miserable damp January with no snow in prospect, to go to Fiji, where it was even damper but a lot warmer. My job moved.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
Jane L, let's hope they are right! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
So I pinched Piers Corbyn's September UK forecast off one of the weather forums:
| TheMarxistMetMan wrote: |
"Early month: Mostly dry sunny & quite warm; then becoming unusually cold.
Overall dry especially in Ireland, the North/West and central parts. Sunny in West.
A generally quite warm and fine early month in most parts then turning cold or very cold for most of the month with frosts.
Some sleet and snow mainly in Scotland and NE/E England. Frequent Northerly winds. South less dry than North/West.
Weather Action Long Range SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS (Brit Is): 11th to 27th COLD or VERY COLD in most parts, with THICK FOG at times especially in Midlands, North and East.
From 10th common appearance of Atlantic/N Atlantic High pressure often linked to the Greenland/Arctic High will bring frequent N’ly winds.
One of 10 or 15 driest Septembers for 100 years in the North/West. Most parts overall cold with exceptionally cold nights in North/West. Central England in 5 or 10 coldest in 100 years. Less cold in the South relative to normal. Generally sunny especially in Ireland, Wales and West England. "
|
How did he do ? Well early month, the weather was in blocked HP mode so that part of his forecast stared him in the face. Longer term, as with most LRFs you can bend some things that happened (eg. snow on the Scottish mountains, there was a northerly incursion, but not exactly frequently) to sort of fit a bit .... however, it certainly wasn't generally cold or very cold and not much fog. On a substantive measurable point:
"Central England in 5 or 10 coldest in 100 years"
Actual CET was 0.2 degrees C above average. My conclusion, his guess is as good as anybody's
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
