 Poster: A snowHead
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The forecast comes from Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, who correctly predicted the wet and stormy summer back in December 2006.
The rest of the meteorological community regards Corbyn as something of a maverick, but his premise is at least a simple one - that the southerly fluctuations of the jet stream seen over the summer will continue "well into December". As anybody who's been following the news will know, this unusual behaviour by the polar jet stream is widely credited with the washout we've been having lately. It's also brought snow and high winds to the Alps, and Corbyn thinks the continuation of this pattern is bound to bring more of the same at the start of winter,
For more, check out the news story at www.welove2ski.com
http://www.welove2ski.com/jsp/index.jsp?lnk=201&id=39
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brian
brian
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He is undoubtedly a nutter but let's hope in this case a correct nutter !
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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brian, do you know much about this guy's track record? I've not come across him before. Needless to say, I've got my fingers and toes all crossed too, and it'll be very interesting to see how the winter unfolds in the light of what he's said.
He is at least right to point out that the movements of the jet stream could have a big impact on the weather this autumn and winter!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I'll be up the Kitzsteinhorn next week for a day** and I'll be sure to let you all know what the marmottes are saying (they know you know)
**not skiing, not bothering to take the gear.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Bode Swiller, send them my love!
Will you bringing any marmotte oil back with you, by the way?
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brian
brian
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Sean Newsom, he has his own secret techniques based on sunspots (I think). He sells forecasts to companies but hasn't made any of his work available for scientific peer review. He's also an outspoken AGW sceptic.
He does, however, claim to have taken a load of money off the bookies in weather bets, so you never know.
It's definitely true that a continuation of a southerly tracking jet would be good news, for Scotland as well as the Alps.
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brian, interesting! His reluctance to submit to peer reviews isn't encouraging. He told me "Global warming has stopped." It got me listening, that's for sure.
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Bode Swiller, I'm thinking, with the Marmotte oil, a few old ski socks and a shot of two of Enzian-Schnaps, we could devise a home-based, snow spell for UK skiers.
"The weird skiers, hand in hand,
Posters of the sea and land,
Thus do go about, about,
Thrice to thine, and thrice to mine,
And thrice again, to make up nine!"
etc, etc
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Sean Newsom,
so that's where they get all that cash.
If global warming has stopped do you think SKGB will start a Disrespect The Mountain Campaign?
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Sean Newsom, and I thought I needed a holiday
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Bode Swiller, had mine already...surfing....maybe got too much salt water in my ear...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Sean Newsom, Anyone who quotes Shakespeare and optimistic forecasts is a good guy as far as I am concerned. Bring it on!!
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You know it makes sense.
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Sean Newsom, you sure it stopped at your ear?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Bode Swiller, not sure at all...Do you think Marmotte oil would help repair the damage?
Chris Bish, we should have an annual snow dance...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Already doing it!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I'm waiting for the peasants forecast they got the autumn, spring and summer right.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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davidof, (temporarily pausing for breath during the snow dance), which peasants?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Bloody peasants! OOh what a give away. help, I'm being repressed.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Sean Newsom wrote: |
| davidof, (temporarily pausing for breath during the snow dance), which peasants? |
French ones, they are busy harvesting the Genepi for winter so we will have to wait a bit for their thoughts, unless Easiski has heard anything up on the hill.
I'm going to stick my neck out but I think Piers is right... I noticed a lot of red berries on the trees in the mountains and the red squirrels were positively weighed down by the number of nuts they were carrying today.
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| Quote: |
I'll be sure to let you all know what the marmottes are saying
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"Squeak, whistle, munch munch munch", I predict.
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Lizzard, hey, these'll be Austrian marmottes... no small talk, facts, facts, facts.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Chris Bish, Listen, strange women lyin' in ponds distributin' swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Sean Newsom wrote: |
| brian, interesting! His reluctance to submit to peer reviews isn't encouraging. He told me "Global warming has stopped." It got me listening, that's for sure. |
He is a commercial forecaster. It makes little sense to give away his proprietary methods.
Having said that, his forecasts are quite cheap -- 10 quid for a 1-month forecast -- which makes me wonder how valuable they really are.
On the upside, he implies global warming is mostly natural and non-anthropomorphic. Which is correct.
Personally, my gutfeel prediction calls for an average Winter across the Alps this season.
Two years ago was above-average. Last year was below-average. This year will be around average above 1500m.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Sean Newsom wrote: |
Bode Swiller, not sure at all...Do you think Marmotte oil would help repair the damage?
Chris Bish, we should have an annual snow dance... |
The traditional North American way to encourage Ullr or his local equivalent is to hold toxic bonfires burning old skis as I'm sure you know.
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Piers Corbyns forecasts are as mentioned above based on sunspots/solar cycles. This winter* is due to be a Hale Winter, the Hale winters over the previous 100years:
1917
1940
1963
1985
Do a google on "Hale Solar Cycles".
(*possibly 09 due to prolonged solar minimum - govt health warning do not book your ski holiday on this basis!)
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You know it makes sense.
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Hope this fella's right... 1985 was an epic winter. Most of the time I was on Cairngorm. Started late but had full cover from Jan right through to end of April and finally called it a day in mid May. Even had a few feet of powder in May.
Went to France that year as well and all I can remember is thigh deep stuff.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Well I do remember that the summer of 85 was incredibly wet and miserable and not unlike this one. I was camping that summer at Plumpton and got soaked 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Bode Swiller, I'll have to check the diary I used to keep- but I remember doing a week's snow gully work in glorious weather and snow in Glencoe about then - in April.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I lived just below the ridgeline of the Malvern Hills in that winter. There was a dump of feet of snow sometime in January. The day after, I struggled to the top of Worcestershire Beacon, with a NE gale (there really is nothing higher between the Malverns and the Urals) whipping ice spicules off the snow. I have NEVER been so cold. I remember driving through the Cotswolds a week or two later, through tunnels of snow that had been ploughed to the side. Decent patches of snow persisted at the top of the Malverns into March.
'85 was a good winter. (I went skiing in average conditions at Tahoe in the March.)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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'85 was when the temps went below -20 in Aviemore (some said -25) and the days either side of the low point were all similar. I think it is in the record books somewhere (perhaps one of you weather boffins can find out). EVERYTHING FROZE, and I mean everything. Apples in my kitchen froze, cans of lager froze solid and just about every pipe in the house. Had to move out for a week. Of course the Geordies were still going down the Winking Owl in their T shirts.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Bode Swiller, must have been cold if geordies put a t-shirt on rather than go bear-chested 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Arno, is that more hairy than bare-chested?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Bode Swiller, oh dear - my hangover is making my spelling go to pot 
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Found this on some boffin's blog... January 1985... a minimum of -22.4 at Aviemore on the 27th, and -23C at Braemar.
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I was still in Sunderland in '85....funny, I can't remember it being especially cold 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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holidayloverxx, I was at college then as well, and I can't remember it being that cold, I remember heavy snow and cold weather in January 87 though, as BF (now hubby) and I got snowed in at Mums for 4 days. You'd think I'd remember the cold in 85, as I was in a student house in Ashbrook.
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Helen Beaumont, I was only a couple of miles away in Fulwell and I was working in Newcastle at the time, ceratinly no disruption IIRC.
In Jan 87 I almost got snowed in at Hartlepool - now there's a scary thought 
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