Poster: A snowHead
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Roy Hockley, how about seeing how many ski resorts have opened, and how many have closed. If resorts have to close, then it shows the business there was not sustainable. And if the resort is closed, does it matter to snow tourists if they have no snow, or a 12 metre dump every week?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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brian wrote: |
achilles, that's the national lottery well and truly knackered ! |
Yup. It's a tax on the statistically illiterate
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The problem with the Times article is it is a retread of an AFP report that seems to be heavily sourced from three articles from my own website. For reference, I will give you the articles
http://pistehors.com/news/ski/comments/0743-transmontagne-goes-bust/
http://pistehors.com/news/ski/comments/0735-abondance-abandons-skiing/
http://pistehors.com/news/ski/comments/st-pierre-de-chartreuse-paradise-lost/
and as a counterpoint here is a response from the director of les 7 laux
http://pistehors.com/news/ski/comments/0740-climate-change-stupid/
to the Abondance article. Ski resorts seem to operate on the basis of 1 bad winter in 7. If there are two or three bad winters in a row we will see some real damage but assuming a return to normal next year resorts will be able to start saving again.
The Abondance Mayor's point about the unaffodability of skiing is a valid one, but he is thinking of French visitors. The French have already been priced out of the majority of the big resorts and tend to ski in mid and low mountain resorts, if at all. French salaries are in general lower compared to those in the UK. In the 70s and 80s the French winter ski holiday was like a week in the Costa del Sol for a Brit. Now it is becoming rarer. There is a new class of people in France - dubbed the "ni-nis" - ni riche, ni pauvre. This is a broad swathe of middle class people who were once confortably off during the Trente Glorius (1950s-1970s) and who now have no spare cash for things like holidays. We are talking about teachers, researchers, university lecturers and a lot of people in the private sector whose salary is 1500-1800 euros a month. These are the people who would have once enjoyed a week in Courchevel and now maybe settle for a week in Tunisia. These are the people who the Mayor is thinking about, not well heeled Brits.
% of French taking winter sports holiday
Of course Abondance is just one resort that seems to have been poorly run. There are still plenty of similar resorts although I would expect to see a slew of closures over the next 10-15 years. This isn't just down to climate change. Many resorts were built in areas where they would never be profitable and were able to set-up and be run due to government subsidy. They will close because the costs of operating have increased - EU health and safety measures, 35 hour week, water and electricity charges.
In response to Roy it wasn't just December or January that was poor but the whole season. Temperatures were 2 to 3C above average from September through to April. On any measures it was a poor season. That is why we are seeing firms in financial difficulties now. French Resorts were able to offer good skiing over much of the season, at least above 2000 meters, because of their piste preparation and snow management skills. But all this has a price.
Talking some figures, average temperatures have increased +1.5C since 1900 in the Alps, for some reason the rate of increase seems to have been higher at altitude. Overall for France the figure is nearer 0.5-0.75C. The mountains are also getting drier, rainfall in the Savoie has decreased 30% since 1970. This doesn't mean that you can't operate a ski resort but if this is a trend that continues it will become harder to run a ski resort.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I belive being creatures of nature and being lead by Evolutionary instincts that we have nothing to fear, had this kind of thing happened before, we adapted and now know now to deal with drastic change. The fact that everyone's dancing around slaping their heads is just proof that nothing drastic is on it's way. It's just bunch of scared journalists creating something of interest to write about in the advent of Forums, Wikapedia and On line magazines. Their getting their come-upance having destroyed so many lives with their poison pens. Now go book your holidays and permit yourselves the pleasure of looking forward to something!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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davidof, Excellent stuff.
Not statistically sound, but French visitors to the Cote d'Azur are significantly reduced since 2000 as well. Fortunately for local businesses they have been replaced by other Northern Europeans (and Russians), but the inflationary effect is the same.
Tunisia is also frequently given as the new French tourist destination as well by locals.
It will be interesting to see what effect raised mortgage rates will have on the UK visitor numbers this winter --- despite what will be claimed here, I would wager it is far greater than last year's snow conditions.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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pam w, davidof, Ahhh...
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Agenterre wrote: |
Tunisia is also frequently given as the new French tourist destination as well by locals. |
Morocco is a bit like the French Dordoigne. Where the locals move to I don't know... probably the UK.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 2-08-07 12:30; edited 1 time in total
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David Murdoch wrote: |
pam w, davidof, Ahhh... |
I suspect Gordon Brown was just parroting what he had been told though.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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davidof, I'm sure...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Quote: |
Gordon Brown was just parroting what he had been told though
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and he was probably right. What he said made statistical sense. Two 150 year events in 60 years? Nothing wrong with that, and it doesn't prove they weren't 150 year events.
Frosty the Snowman, bummer. I felt very guilty and unthrifty when I cashed in my original endowment, years ago (and quite likely spent the proceeds on a family ski holiday....) but I'm glad now.
Our local businesses in Les Saisies say that althought he lift pass sales were very good last season people weren't spending as much in the restaurants, ski shops, souvenir shops etc as they used to.
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pam w, but do we have enough data points to justify the "150 year" assertion?
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You know it makes sense.
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David Murdoch, <150 = destruction of the model ! OH, I love stats . Unlike the fixed criteria associated with a coin , we have an unknown variable ......
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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pam w wrote: |
a. we are in a period of very rapid climate change with warming attributable to an extent never seen before to human activity.
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there are now very few pundits worth listening to who would refute [the above] |
Here is some data from the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit.
It shows that the warmest year during the period of reliable measurements with more-or-less global coverage was 9 years ago. The moving average shows that global warming has - perhaps temporarily - slowed to pretty much a standstill since then. (So far, it looks like 2007 will not be out of line with the last few years.) It also shows that the earth warmed more rapidly in the 1910-1940 warming phase than that which occured in 1970-2000.
Quote: |
As for the last two very wet months in the UK, which have no precedent since reliable records began, they seem to be a more reliable indicator that something is up... |
I would find that more convincing, if it were not for my belief that the doomsayers would draw exactly the same conclusion if the weather had been unusually dry rather than wet, or unusually hot, cold, windy, etc, etc.
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Poster: A snowHead
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David Murdoch, obviously the flood risk figures have to be based on the best available evidence to date. I suppose that they can be kept up to date in a way which means they remain useful, during periods when climate change is relatively slow and/or predictable. Obviously when the climate is changing much faster than it has at any time during which the data has been gathered (as it is at the moment, whatever a very small number of flat earthers might continue to assert to the contrary) their reliability goes out the window, even as the waters come in. AFAIK nobody knows precisely how the rapid change in global climate is going to affect the weather in any particular place. Maybe some won't change much, some change for the better, others for the worse. Statisticians can tell you when the data available to them cannot provide a basis for reliable predictions. People don't like to be told about uncertainty though, and there is a temptation for politicians to fall for the "we must ensure this never happens again" nonsense. People don't like spending huge sums of money and completely changing their lifestyle to insure against something which won't happen for 150 years, either.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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laundryman, interesting chart. How did they get accurate average global air temp from 100+ years ago? As far as I understand even today it's difficult for different scientist to agree on the current average global air temp. And bear in mind the difference is 1 degree, so accuracy would seem rather important. Not trying to discredit just interested in how they get these figures.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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waynos, I'd be interested too, particularly for the large expanses of ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the 1970s, I believe they have used satellite data for those areas, which I believe are not particularly accurate. I often see 'fastest ever' claims going even further back, when only proxy measurements of temperature are available, relating to very few areas of the world, and with innacuracy (and big intervals) in the timings as well.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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pam w, sure, and my apologies in advance for being wrong. The problem being as Agenterre, asserts (although I think he is supposed to say 150+1 or something like that) is that you can only really define a distribution with enough data - and I don't think we have enough reliable data to do that. Notwithstanding the change in climate.
Plus, the reason that all these poor people had flooded houses was that they were allowed to build on flood plains, which, strikingly enough, flood when it, err, floods. And no political twit is going to accept that the government might be complicit in any sort of mismanagement are they.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Agenterre, No I can't. I can only tell you of the certainties!!
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