 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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micksup, not all forecasts agree. This one shows a whole load of different ones based on different models. The upper lines are the temps (red is 30yr seasonal average, grey the average of all the models) and the bit at the bottom is the precipitation. The link below is set (approximately) for la Rosiere.
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_746_ens.png
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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brian
brian
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micksup, way too far to out to get that much detail from a global model. Don't jump the gun based on one run from one model !
Nick L, no it doesn't. It shows a number of possible outcomes from the same model allowing for possible errors in the accuracy of the original input.
(oh and 46 North, 7 East is just above Argentiere in the Chamonix valley which puts it the other side of Mont Blanc from La Ros, which can make a big difference).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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[quote="brian"]micksup, way too far to out to get that much detail from a global model. Don't jump the gun based on one run from one model !
Its two runs now showing this though. 12Z had better be better. This is now in the almost reliable timeframe and hence is surely more accurate tha what was showing at the back end of last week.
Odd though how in 24hrs its done a complete and utter change.
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micksup, yep they were forecasting sleet showers in Salisbury on Friday now they are saying +8°c
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brian
brian
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It's nothing like a complete and utter change if you actually look at it. The basic pattern is High pressure to the north over Greenland, Low pressure coming off the atlantic towards the continent running into High pressure over Russia (possibly extending towards Scandinavia).
The variation is in the track of the Low pressure, a few hundred miles to the North (milder) or the South (colder) will make a big difference. A few hundred miles is next to nothing in a global model at a week away.
As you say it's only the edge of the reliable timeframe, there's still time for major changes in the pattern (particularly as its quite an unusal one) let alone the detail (which is what you're talking about).
boredsurfin, for England this is an absolute forecaster's nightmare. I doubt they'll be looking more than a day ahead in the tv forecasts this week !
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowangel., certainly does. My metcheck snow dump alert has been sent three times today, they must be excited too. It's gone from no snow until Saturday, to loads in 24 hours. MY fingers are very tightly crossed (again!!) 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Helen Beaumont, i hope it does, althought we are still very white and ridable we do need it as its very very solid!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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brian, thanks for the corrections(s). It's my favourite chart because it has lots of possible outcomes beyond 2-3 days so keeps me guessing/hoping/aware that forecasting is still virtually impossible beyong even a couple of days
Does anybody know the correct latitude and longitude for la Rosiere?
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Nick L, from what i can see you will be one of the very lucky ones. We get the storms all week and you get the benefits. To be honest I have quite enjoyed messing about in poor viz the last couple of times.
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You know it makes sense.
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Frosty the Snowman, it is looking a bit snowy for you - but who says that it will stop for us?
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brian
brian
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Nick L, indeed. It's a very useful indicator of whether the model is struggling or not. Given that there's a 5 degree spread in the temperature less than 3 days away I think we can safely say it's struggling at the moment !
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Poster: A snowHead
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the French forecasters, amateur and professional (including chamonix meteo, who are usually pretty good) reckon it will snow this week down to a reasonable altitude though they are arguing about the quantities. But 20cms (Cham meteo) would make everything pretty again and refresh the pistes.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Hi pam w, that would be nice for you - but aren't you coming home soon to avoid the school holidays?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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All the sites I've looked at predict a load of snow this week. Tuesday through to Sunday. Only really been looking at St Sorlin D'Arves but sure they wont all be wrong.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Nick L, yes I am, but we have friends who are borrowing our apartment for the half term weeks, and just for all our local friends, restaurateurs, ski hire people etc, we are keeping fingers crossed for a good start to these vital weeks. Les Saisies was pretty busy yesterday (we actually had to queue for some of the lifts) so it must be time to go home. Les Saisies still has good piste skiing, the only place around here which does, so there were lots of local day trippers (plenty of Savoie number plates) as well as holiday makers who arrived on Saturday.
garethjomo, I suspect we won't have "a load". But even a little would be welcome. Too much grass at the moment.
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Does anyone else get 'forecast envy' when you see other SH's discussing weather in such a knowledgeable manner. I haven't got the foggiest (if you'll pardon the pun...). 
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| rainman wrote: |
| Does anyone else get 'forecast envy' when you see other SH's discussing weather in such a knowledgeable manner. I haven't got the foggiest (if you'll pardon the pun...). |
Not really, a little knowledge can be a real pain, it can get in the way of all that optimism!!
Plus.. I always look for the possible good news in the forecasts, for some reason I fail to see the really dodgy looking runs on GFS charts!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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rainman, I haven't got a clue either. Like piste maps I leave it to others to do the brainwork. Lazy really.
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I really like http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
Click on "Animator-Panel" and a new window opens up in which you can load 4 different sets of predictions. Niedersclag and 850hPa Temperature being my favourites. You can track them side by side by running your mouse down over the timescale on the LHS. A rule of thumb is that green temps and blue niederschlag (precipitation) means snow at all levels. Light yellow temps are ok providing its not a low resort, orangey yellow is bad, and the orangey red that we had a couple of weeks ago produced all that rain up to 2700m. Currently showing lots of blue in the Niedershlag and lots of green/ pale yellow temps.
No knowledge is neede for this, just a bit of observation
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Frosty the Snowman, plus a smattering of Deutsche?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Chris Brookes, could be an inversion.
As for amateur forecasting, I have strong suspicions that it's snowing in the Vosges right now. Low cloud here and temps just above freezing, so head up a couple of hundred metres, and it should be snowing.
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brian
brian
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Chris Brookes, on that page it says Interlaken, 46 deg N, 7 deg E.
It's actually 46.7 N, 7.9 E, so they're probably just using the wrong data. (46 N, 7 E) is near Chamonix/Argentiere).
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| brian wrote: |
Chris Brookes, on that page it says Interlaken, 46 deg N, 7 deg E.
It's actually 46.7 N, 7.9 E, so they're probably just using the wrong data. (46 N, 7 E) is near Chamonix/Argentiere). |
well that aint good news... 
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Poster: A snowHead
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FAQ
(Pessimists may be right more often but optimists have more fun 