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Very Dry Outlook

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Might as well give up hope. After any falls in the next 24 hours the GFS 0Z forecast is dry (though cool) out to +384 hours. Given how accurate the GFS has been this season I fear the worst.

Can anyone contradict my reading of this?

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
lisach wrote:
Might as well give up hope. Sad

Give up hope of what?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Lisach... GFS has been very accurate because of the lack of change there has generally been, hence the accuracy. Historically it isn't that good and it's known weakness is cold, changeable weather and particularly precipitation... NO models are particularly good at precipitation, particularly at long range.

You're turning into a mini-Stanton, you know... wink
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
A quick look at the Niederschlag rates from the 00z shows continuous amounts for the next 48 hours for all the alps, so hopefully most places will see an improvement.
It also shows precipitation for Austria and Switzerland around 108 hours too.
I'd give up model watching if I we're you. Your clearly not cut out for it. Wink
Try and remember they are computer models. Not fact. And as such just give an idea of what might happen.
Cheer up.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
lisach, there doesn't seem to be a settled pattern emerging yet.

I've been looking at the weekend of 3rd/4th Feb when I arrive at Passo Tonale since it first appeared on the GFS runs.

Each GFS run has wildly varied. So far it's gone from -18 to +2 temperaturewise and from heavy snow to bone dry. There's no gradual progression either - that can be the variation between 2 consecutive runs!
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