 Poster: A snowHead
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Reminds me a bit of Deal or No Deal, where the contestants seem to think that positve thinking can have a bearing on the outcome, whereas in fact it is all down to chance!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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skinutter, I'm dancing but getting very funny glances from colleagues... 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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stephen buck, I know what you mean, but we're talking sliding probabilities here. The positive thinking won't affect the weather, but it there is a definite possibility that it will improve, so why not have a happier week or two than a miserable week or two?
skinutter, my impression was that the temp. spike was reduced slightly when I updated ensemble chart, but I didn't keep a copy of it to compare. If anyone still has the 00z chart it would be interesting to see.
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Can someone please explain the ECM charts and is there a good webiste to follow this?
Going to Monte Rosa (Gressoney) the 26th and I'm praying for snow and cold weather.
3rd year in a row that we try to go to Gressoney (changed to Andermatt and Arabba) and it looked good until yesterday.....
/ Bjorn (Stockholm)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Even though I don't pretend to fully understand these forecast models, it's very interesting stuff.....and it's refreshing to have a positive outlook at the moment.  Keep the updates coming.
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Bjorn, Welcome to Snowheads 
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Bjorn, there are number of sites where you can see the ECMWF charts, not least the ECMWF site itself. However, many/most people use Wetterzentrale.
The charts can be found here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
The top row are Wetterzentrale plotted charts from data released by ECMWF, and the bottom two rows are the ECMWF hosted charts that Wetterzentrale links to.
The row charts show thickness values (the colour markings) and sea level pressure. The Thickness corresponds to temperature, but don't get too hung up on colour correlation - it can feel chilly under yellow for example.
The sea level pressure is the same as in the charts you see in newspapers and (if you're lucky) on TV. The fronts are not marked on though and you have to infer then from the isobars (where they are kinked, generally).
The second row shows sea level pressure and and wind speeds at 850hpa (~1500m). The 850hpa wind speeds will show wind not affected by surfaces (except in the Alps of course) and can indicate fronts etc. I tend to use it as a rule of thumb that where they're high, the weather will be poor. But I'm sure better meteorologists than I will have a proper use for them. They will of course show the wind speed around 1500m, so can be useful if looking at mountainous areas.
The bottom charts show the 500hpa thickness as in the top row. The top row is really Wetterzentrale's mix of the useful info from the other two rows. They go to 168hrs as that's most people's thoughts of what's reliable or not (the model resolution may also drop after that point, I'm not sure).
ECMWF do provide many more products than just this (as the Met Office provide more than what you see from them on that site and others), but this is all that's freely available.
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Thanks, no enough people here in Sweden to discuss the weather with.. 
Same up here as in the alps, normally this time of year it should be -10 and loads of snow, yesterday it was +10 ans sunshine, scary! Atleast it's getting colder and snowier up north in our skiareas!
/ B
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| skanky wrote: |
stephen buck, I know what you mean, but we're talking sliding probabilities here. The positive thinking won't affect the weather, but it there is a definite possibility that it will improve, so why not have a happier week or two than a miserable week or two?
skinutter, my impression was that the temp. spike was reduced slightly when I updated ensemble chart, but I didn't keep a copy of it to compare. If anyone still has the 00z chart it would be interesting to see. |
No sorry i didnt save one but actually the later run shapes it differently again, taking longer to come down...grrrr
MR Dan, thanks for your dancing effort, you should see my efforts LOL...always been a cr*p dancer, even for romancing the snow 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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skinutter,
I agree
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The temps on Met check for resorts - what altitude are they based on? resort? bottom? mid? top?
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brian
brian
Guest
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A quick update:
ECM - had a serious wobble yesterday, I was too depressed to report the results of the 12z  Back on track this morning though, if anything possibly better  I guess this reinforces that this is still really beyond reliable timeframe 
GFS - still broadly agrees but is about 24 hours behind reaching the setup we're looking for. It's not the same evolution delayed, the high still shifts around the 19th/20th, it just takes longer to get far enough West to pull colder air down.
Caveats, caveats, caveats - Heaps of things could cause this to go tits up, obviously, but what I'm afraid of is HP ending up positioned too far East, as happened at Xmas time, resulting in cooler but bone dry alps.
We're still not in range of the MetO's model for any of this.
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You know it makes sense.
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A lot of you seem to have a good idea about what your talking about on this thread, would anyone care to make a guess at what lies ahead for the pyrenees!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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brian, missed ECMWF's 12z luckily.
I think there's some disagreement in the speed and this development (thus track) of the LP(s) as it comes across the Atlantic, but every model has it (Wednesday night's charts for UKMO, ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS & GEM shows what I mean). We need it to dig into the HP to at least bring relief.
If the jet comes further south, even if the pressure pattern isn't quite right, I think it'll be delaying the inevitable. We need a more southerly jet first, after that things will (eventually) fall into place. I just hope it's a week's time (as it currently looks) and not three.
But yes, still time for it to go wrong. Monday we'll have a good idea, I think.
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Poster: A snowHead
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smudger, we're a bit cagey about the Alps, the Pyrenees are even more difficult/borderline.  Doesn't look good before the end of next week though. Looks like it could get warm, but again, it looks like it *could* get better after 20th. We're really waiting for the models to come into line about how & when the high pressure breaks down/moves.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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skanky, when and where to, are you going in the alps?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Bjorn, 27th La Plagne.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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All a bit technical for me ! but i am willing to help with the postive vibes - off to 2Aples on 19th, so really need this change.
Last year we tried the age old ritual to the snowgods - someone has to stick their bare bum in the snow - and YES it snowed the next day
As i'm not near any white stuff can anyone else help with this ritual ??
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Not sure but would love to see you try !! Might get removed for indecent exposure tho !!
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debbi, Quite. Might be worth it!
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debbi,
You don't "really need this change" at all!! There's plenty of snow in 2 Alpes, trust me. Most of the skiings above 2100m anyway, so even if something diabolical happens you're still guaranteed loads of good terrain.
Welcome to btw!
Thanks for the hot tip on making it snow - I'll try that.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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.No worries paulmck , i am happy with whats at 2 alpes at the mo, Easiski's regular updates have been great in allying the fears.
Just wistfully hoping for some Powder to christen my new board on !
Have been really lucky the last 2 years with mega snow in the Pyrenees - unfortunatley not so this year.
And that snow tip normally works !! best to try it after a few local brews though
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hmm and the 12z one shows the temperature spike back up slightly again. Is the breakdown still on track? 20th Jan shows a bit more of a northwesterly blast moving in over France, looks positive but do i have the right vibe or...? 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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the GFS 12z I saw for Engelberg has a bigger temp drop than previously, but a day or so later, and still the warm blip beforehand, anyhow the next 5-7 days will be interesting from a weather point of view!!
regards,
Greg
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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kitenski, still going to plan ...20/21st still on ??
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Chris Brookes, looks like it, yes.
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You know it makes sense.
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Hi, am new to snowheads (first post) but have been watching this thread for about a week. Off to meribel on the 20th and so am hoping all of this is correct, the latest run of the models still seem to look good! ...although am hoping that some of the more short range forecasts start to show cold and snow sometime soon! Keeping everything crossed......
Thanks to everyone on snowheads for explaining the models by the way - understanding them (even if I am just a beginner) is really helpful
Great website!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I am new to this (first post). Am going to Passo Tonale on 20th.
From the explanations posted(most usefull), I can see that the trend is for cooler temperatures but the amount of precipitation also seems to be dropping. Any chance of some snow in the Dolomites???
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just looked at the latest run - I hop I didn't jinx it because I'm not so sure it looks as good now?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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brian, skanky, looking at the normal longe range forecasts it does now show the dropping of temps around the 20/21 but it also shows the temps rising on the 24th..
Any ideas ? have you seen an upto date model ?
Im trying to stay positive.....
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brian
brian
Guest
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brian
brian
Guest
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brian, At the risk of appearing thick, is that pinky-purply stuff (technical term) snow?
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Brian, the chart above looks promising! Looks like 35-40 where I'm going (MonteRosa).
Is that in mm or cm?
Bjorn
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brian
brian
Guest
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Anniepen, well it's precipitation, but if cold enough, then pinky-purply = immense quantities of the aforementioned (technically termed) snow
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brian
brian
Guest
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Bjorn, it's mm of rainfall but 1mm of rain (roughly) corresponds to 1cm of level snowfall.
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