 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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tomski01, I *think* that in the absence of a real handle on what will happen, it will tend towards the average. If you check the ensemble member spread after about the 12th, it gives a low confidence of any particular outcome, which is the best way to decide how much salt to take. Though there is some spread, most of the runs are on the positive temperature side, though not by a lot so maybe not worth noting.
In these situations, it's best to watch multiple runs (if you have the time) and multiple models. In this case there's reasonable agreement even between the models out to 144hrs (11th Jan), so I'd take that with reasonable confidence (though remember this is at the 500hpa pressure patterns, the temperatures and precipitation values will probably differ between models, and normally need a forecaster input to get accurate localy). After that not only do the GFS ensembles diverge, but so does GFS & ECMWF so that's all to play for.
The next week doesn't look *especially* mild, except on a couple of days (note the average at this time of year is only slightly below 0), but it looks like the mixed conditions will continue for another week.
The 2m temperatures for Geneva are here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Genf_ens.png
Though GFS isn't brilliant with 2m temperatures.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I'd ignore anything past 3 days. I've been watching it and each run is so different that it is impossible to predict anything. Firstly the blue line was virtually following the 30yr average and ensemble average, then it was up a bit with a cold dip with precipitation on the day I travel to the alps (just to tease), then it was warmer, and now it is up and down all over. See also carled's post in other topic.
Might get a snapshot of the next "N" plots, and see how they compare just for interest. Also, I think each run uses data from differing sources, so they can't be compared directly. Probably need to compare with the equivalent pass from the previous day?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I agree. The models have been up and down like a youknowwhat.
But, on balance, it currently looks like above-average temps next week almost everywhere.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
| Might get a snapshot of the next "N" plots, and see how they compare just for interest. Also, I think each run uses data from differing sources, so they can't be compared directly. Probably need to compare with the equivalent pass from the previous day? |
Generally that's the case, but each run also uses previous runs as input.
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at least it seems to show the precipitation events as being 'either side' of the most mild moments over the next few days...i guess thats frontal stuff tho which i think i have just about got a handle on. Defeinitely something rumbling for next weekend yes/no?
do you find yourself willing each model to veer towards (below) that thick red line... 
thansk for the input, sorry if that was a daft question!
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and hey presto... next plot comes out (for 7E 46N), and the wiggly blue line that was all over the place and getting colder is now mostly mild and getting warmer 
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