 Poster: A snowHead
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With all the comments flying around about weather this season is bad or not I decided to go back and take a look at snowfall figures. The table (assuming it formats ok) shows accumulated snowfall from 1st Oct to 15th Dec and current snow depths. This is as measured by the Meteo France automatic monitoring stations not the resorts. Think of this as "off-piste" or "real" snow depths without snow canons, the fiddle factor etc.
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2006 2005 2004
la Grave (3100m) 155cm/30cm 60cm/20cm
la Plagne (3000m) 90cm/50cm 80cm/50cm 90cm/55cm
Bonneval (2790m) 95cm/30cm 60cm/10cm
Aiguilles (2330) 95cm/20cm 50cm/40cm
- Rouges
Les Saisies (1660m) 40cm/15cm 80cm/70cm
Vercors (1600m) 20cm/0cm 70cm/60cm
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As you can see 2006 isn't too bad at altitude, indeed in the les Deux Alpes/Ecrins area it is actually better than normal. There has been a lot of accumulated snow, the total snow depth is poor because of warm temperatures and high winds but a lot of that snow will have been saved in resort by good conservation (snow fences, pisting etc). That is possibly why the pictures from les Deux Alpes are painting a rosier picture than exsits elsewhere on the ground. Even in the Haute-Tarentaise, which normally has a slow start to the season except Val d'Isere and La Ros which benefit a bit from Italian weather, the situation is better than 2005.
Take a look at the 1600m level, this is where most resorts are situated, the bottom of the runs is normally around the 1300m level. Here the snow cover is poor to disasterous compared to last (and many previous seasons). There has been a lack of snowfall and what has fallen has melted. In the Vercors the season hasn't even started. The warm temperatures and very dry year have meant that snowmaking either hasn't been run or has to be used carefully. Of course man made snow is nothing like the real thing but can provide a very good base for real snow.
The Aiguilles Rouge are in the Mont-Blanc range. Bonneval is at the top of the Maurienne valley behind Val d'Isere.
Obviously what a particular run is like depends on its orientation, how sheltered it was from the wind, snow making and how well the resort was able to save any snowfall. Generalizing the start to the season is poor below 2000m and I would expect most people will find the snow patchy with rocks / grass on slopes and possibly very icy snow which could cause injuries if you fall heavily.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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davidof, this stacks up with what I've seen at Puy Saint Vincent. It's great above 1800-2000m. 1800-1600m is variable and getting patchy around 1600m. 1600m-1400m is closed.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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petel, going to do a day in puy next week or the week after, its relatively quieter than here. keep it sweet for us!
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Is it just me, but I'm sure I remember plenty of years in the 80s when Xmas skiing was not so good, hence the reason I always book my main hols in March or April 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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petel, do you think it is worth going to puy over new yr given currnet conditions?
also, how can i get there best from england? as ive seen a good deals on the flats at 1800
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ok, it's not just me
Dug this up from Winterhighland...
http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,66329,page=2
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It seems that the cycle of expectations on the ski-season is returning back to where it was in the early 80's.
In the late 60's early 70's when I started, most available packages didn't start until January. Then operators started selling xmas in the alps (ie get a white xmas and some skiing). A couple of good early seasons then pushed the tour operator start dates back to early december, then snow guarantees became part of the marketing mix, and over a couple of seasons there followed a lot of payouts to disappointed punters.
The seminal book "We Learned to Ski" published by the Sunday Times in the early 70's contained a major chapter on when to risk going skiing to get snow, and the message then was that December was for opportunistic visits only with snow in skiable quantities arriving mid to late January (I still think that last week Jan first week Feb is when it really happens, and that is my preferred advance booking time). In the 50's and 60's, low lying resorts in Austria had no expectation of ski holidaymakers until mid Jan (EG Kitzbuhel), and finishing at the end of Feb ! All because they had no expectation of reliable snow outside of that period.
Over the years, the marketing hype, and technology (and our own personal financial means to pay) has extended the ski-season beyond what used to be regarded as natural !
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Excellent post davidof.
| davidof wrote: |
| Generalizing the start to the season is poor below 2000m and I would expect most people will find the snow patchy with rocks / grass on slopes and possibly very icy snow which could cause injuries if you fall heavily. |
This certainly fits with what I'm seeing in Avoriaz. We've got great snow down to around 1900m / 2000m; good snow down to 1600m and below that it's pretty grim.
Interestingly, even though the official avalanche risk is only 1, we saw a few instances of snow instability today - one on piste and two on "safe" off-piste (used advisedly) cut-offs between runs. It must have been bad because I don't normally notice these things.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| Is it just me, but I'm sure I remember plenty of years in the 80s when Xmas skiing was not so good, hence the reason I always book my main hols in March or April |
and I certainly remember the TO's offering 'snow gurantee's ' on some but certainly not all resorts and possibly the TO's were the first to call some resorts 'snowsure'
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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"The seminal book "We Learned to Ski" published by the Sunday Times in the early 70's" is still worth reading IMHO, and not only does it contains these words of weather wisdom, they also spend quite a bit of time criticising the rental shops, instructors and manufacturers for promoting skis that, for most people most of the time, are too long.
Which I thought re-reading it some months ago was quite far sighted. (...and you all know I'm a fan of long skis...)
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Thanks Davidof - very informative (and more value than my straw clutching for Courchevel)..
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
"The seminal book "We Learned to Ski" published by the Sunday Times in the early 70's"
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Yes, I remember being glued to that, in the chalet in the evenings, and my young son enjoying it too. I don't know what happened to it; it probably fell apart after so much reading. I started reading it in the early 'eighties. Was it really 10 years old already?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| davidof wrote: |
With all the comments flying around about weather this season is bad or not I decided to go back and take a look at snowfall figures. The table (assuming it formats ok) shows accumulated snowfall from 1st Oct to 15th Dec and current snow depths. This is as measured by the Meteo France automatic monitoring stations not the resorts. Think of this as "off-piste" or "real" snow depths without snow canons, the fiddle factor etc.
| Code: |
2006 2005 2004
la Grave (3100m) 155cm/30cm 60cm/20cm
la Plagne (3000m) 90cm/50cm 80cm/50cm 90cm/55cm
Bonneval (2790m) 95cm/30cm 60cm/10cm
Aiguilles (2330) 95cm/20cm 50cm/40cm
- Rouges
Les Saisies (1660m) 40cm/15cm 80cm/70cm
Vercors (1600m) 20cm/0cm 70cm/60cm
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As you can see 2006 isn't too bad at altitude, indeed in the les Deux Alpes/Ecrins area it is actually better than normal. There has been a lot of accumulated snow, the total snow depth is poor because of warm temperatures and high winds but a lot of that snow will have been saved in resort by good conservation (snow fences, pisting etc). That is possibly why the pictures from les Deux Alpes are painting a rosier picture than exsits elsewhere on the ground. Even in the Haute-Tarentaise, which normally has a slow start to the season except Val d'Isere and La Ros which benefit a bit from Italian weather, the situation is better than 2005.
Take a look at the 1600m level, this is where most resorts are situated, the bottom of the runs is normally around the 1300m level. Here the snow cover is poor to disasterous compared to last (and many previous seasons). There has been a lack of snowfall and what has fallen has melted. In the Vercors the season hasn't even started. The warm temperatures and very dry year have meant that snowmaking either hasn't been run or has to be used carefully. Of course man made snow is nothing like the real thing but can provide a very good base for real snow.
The Aiguilles Rouge are in the Mont-Blanc range. Bonneval is at the top of the Maurienne valley behind Val d'Isere.
Obviously what a particular run is like depends on its orientation, how sheltered it was from the wind, snow making and how well the resort was able to save any snowfall. Generalizing the start to the season is poor below 2000m and I would expect most people will find the snow patchy with rocks / grass on slopes and possibly very icy snow which could cause injuries if you fall heavily. |
Nice figures. Small sample size, but they confirm what has already been widely reported. Conditions are average or above-average over roughly 2000m. Snowfall is below-average almost everywhere under that height. If you are heading high for the Holiday Season, then skiing should be acceptable. Anyone going low had better take some Daz with them, to wash out the mudstains.
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Whitegold, As a matter of interest where do you get the information for the average? I have been trying to find reliable snow depth data for previous seasons and have not succeeded.
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You know it makes sense.
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| T Bar wrote: |
| Whitegold, As a matter of interest where do you get the information for the average? I have been trying to find reliable snow depth data for previous seasons and have not succeeded. |
This is a good place to start for data from the Meteo France automatic stations.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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rob@rar,
Thanks for the link but I could not find any historic data, any hints?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Thats interesting. I dug this up from the l'Alpe d'Huez council minutes for the 29 July 1934 (so you can go and check in the town hall).
"Winter: winter sports start on the 15th of November and end on the 1st of May. L'Alpe d'Huez is the best know winter sports destination in the south-east. Every winter Sunday we count between 1000 and 1500 skiers and at Easter 2000; every weekday there are between 200 and 300".
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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davidof, Brilliant! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Interesting stuff and it puts it all in some perspective I feel, thanks davidof.
It strikes me that those saying it's terrible etc. etc. are looking at past seasons through rose tinted spectacles, as is shown above it's mixed.
Interestingly Scotland has seen a run of winters when there's been a relative snow drought in the early part of the season with early snow being stripped from the hills by warm winds and rain, then cold temperatures but no snow falling. It seems not dissimilar to some of the reported conditions in lower European resorts this year, whilst ironically this year Cairngorm has been offering skiing for the last few weekends and has now opened mid week too. It seems that in Scotland the conditions are currently better than in recent years whilst in Europe it's more problematic lower down. Of course North America sems to be having a snow bonanza, am I only the only one to see the slight irony in that?
Climate change is something that's often mentioned in these discussions and whilst I personally am sure that human activity is affecting the climate one mixed early season in the Alps IMHO does not prove what it's affects will be in the short to medium term.
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But all that said, the last few seasons in the Haute Savoie and Savoie have all started reasonably early. IMHO, we've all just forgotten years like 88, 89, 90, 91, etc. where the snow didn't arrive all that early. '92 Morzine IIRC it didn't snow properly until Christmas eve.
This variability is not unusual. However, using a short history to predict high variability isn't going to work. What does work is seeing how often we fallible humans look at our short memories and use them as perfect predictors...
Head out to the Alps, have a great Christmas, enjoy whatever the weather brings.
Great thread davidof!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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One thing that worries me a bit is that the places where West European cold air comes from - like Scandinavia and Russia - have also been unseasonably warm this autumn/winter (I think). So, when we (that is to say, the Alps) eventually get a nice collision between warm, wet Atlantic air and cold N/E European air, the latter won't be all that ... er ... cold.
Any of our resident weather experts care to comment?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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davidof, great thread - thanks! 
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skied COurcheval and Mottaret last week and conditions high were very good on piste, but very thin off the sides. The day before the official opening day merible had 22cm and around 30 i recon in mottaret. Courcheval below 1850 was dire......
with the cold weather i am hopin it will hold till xmas week.
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The world has been heating up for roughly 15k years, since the end of the last Ice Age.
The warming cycle has, for whatever reason, accelerated in the last 200 years at an eye-opening rate.
The Earth continues to heat up today.
The outlook, on balance, indicates more heat.
Snow does not like heat.
As temps rise, snow melts. Snowlines creep higher.
Wintersports will continue in the Alps until the reliable average snowline reaches the mountaintops. Skiers will chase snow to the summits if they have to.
The peaks stand at roughly 3k meters (assuming 1k meters of vertical skiing above that).
The reliable Alpine Winter snowline is around 1k meters today.
Assuming that the average snowline creeps up by, say, 100 meters per decade. Then, Alpine snowsports will mostly cease to exist some time during the 23rd Century.
So, chillax. There is still plenty of Alpine skitime left for you and me. But future generations may not be so lucky 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Whitegold, Not like you to say anything positive 
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Can anyone confirm whether the report on Natives re:La Plagne is rubbish or not?
http://www.natives.co.uk/whatsnew/moresnow.htm
Haven't heard anything else on this board regarding any transformational dumps in the Tarentaise during the last two days so I'm suspicious...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| frostynutz wrote: |
Can anyone confirm whether the report on Natives re:La Plagne is rubbish or not?
http://www.natives.co.uk/whatsnew/moresnow.htm
Haven't heard anything else on this board regarding any transformational dumps in the Tarentaise during the last two days so I'm suspicious... |
It looks like La Plagne had roughly 5 - 10cm of fresh snow in the last few days. Just a dusting. Enough to, temporarily, refresh the slopes. La Plagne had 36% of its lifts open today (Weds). More planned for Sat. It looks like one of the few stations that will have reasonably good conditions over Crimmy.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| frostynutz wrote: |
Can anyone confirm whether the report on Natives re:La Plagne is rubbish or not?
http://www.natives.co.uk/whatsnew/moresnow.htm
Haven't heard anything else on this board regarding any transformational dumps in the Tarentaise during the last two days so I'm suspicious... |
A bit of "artistic licence" in that I think. You can see a fuller report of conditions last weekend in Les Arcs (unlikely to be significantly different to La Plagne) here. Since then there's been no significant snow.
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rob@rar, I have been to La Plagne and had fantastic snow, while people on the coach home complained abou the really thin cover in Les Arcs.It actually put us off going for a few years. I agree that it is artistic licence this time though.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| laundryman wrote: |
One thing that worries me a bit is that the places where West European cold air comes from - like Scandinavia and Russia - have also been unseasonably warm this autumn/winter (I think). So, when we (that is to say, the Alps) eventually get a nice collision between warm, wet Atlantic air and cold N/E European air, the latter won't be all that ... er ... cold.
Any of our resident weather experts care to comment? |
Without wishing to claim to be either resident, or a weather expert (I'm certainly not the latter) I did compose a long post about this last night (I don't really know but it was interesting looking at the charts etc. and thinking about it). Anyway, for reasons too dull to go into, I lost it. The upshot was that while it's been (possibly still is warm), Scandinavia *looks* to have more snow than usual at the moment and will get some more (this will help), and there is plenty of cold air around (see the NH charts on Wetterzentrale), and probably more than this time in the last few years. the big problem is it's on the other side of the NH, though there's a good pool over Greenland. Once the block moves on, things could well be better than previous years. Maybe....see sig.....
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Helen Beaumont wrote: |
| rob@rar, I have been to La Plagne and had fantastic snow, while people on the coach home complained abou the really thin cover in Les Arcs. |
I've never seen any difference in snow conditions when I've skied both Les Arcs and La Plagne on the same trips. Both resorts have slopes which face in all directions, so aspect doesn't seem to play a role for one resort but not the other, and I've not heard of any people talk about "micro-climate" snowfall blessing either side of the Paradiski domain.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The problem is the GFS FI charts appear to have become very accurate and I am tending to believe them more than I did a year ago. Two weeks ago they predicted this current seasonal colder spell with the HP and the lack of rainfall., they have proved to be spot on.
Looking at FI again I would suggest that nothing will fall until the 4th of January 2007.
It does annoy me slightly when some say the forecasts can't be trusted and that they expect snowfall around a certain date. Get yourselves on to Wetter Zentrale and take a look before posting!
Interesting also the comment from Davidof in another thread that all the French have cancelled for the Christmas/New Year period. I wonder what the impact of this will be both on the later part of the season and also local economies.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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rob@rar snow report depths were about 50cm lower than La Plagne that week. The people on the coach confirmed the poor snow. Not saying it's normal though/
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