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GFS 06Z massive changes

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Couldn't be more different (or better) that than the 18 and 00 runs. Thoughts?
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 brian
brian
Guest
micksup, wait for the ensembles and even if there's widespread support don't believe anything past T+180.

In fact the way it's been recently, take anything beyond T+96 as being pretty speculative at best.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Is it much different? Up until the 12th December (when agreement within the ensemble begins to peter out) it looks like 06Z forecast is similar to the previous couple of runs, perhaps with a little bit more precipitation in the forecast.
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 brian
brian
Guest
rob@rar, the operational was a big cold outlier in FI, I presume that's what micksup meant ?

Looking good for your weekend in Val d'Isere. (or will the lack of race reroute you to Les Arcs ?)
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
brian wrote:
rob@rar, the operational was a big cold outlier in FI, I presume that's what micksup meant ?

Looking good for your weekend in Val d'Isere. (or will the lack of race reroute you to Les Arcs ?)

I tend not to look much beyond four or five days with the GFS ensembles - it just changes too much to have any value. Next few days looking promising though, especially at altitude and well timed for me Smile I'm staying in Les Arcs, but will drive to Val d'Isere or Tignes for skiing. The cancelled race is a shame, but not a big deal - I'll just have to ski instead!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
I think if I was off to the St Anton area I'd be pretty happy...

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 brian
brian
Guest
rob@rar, what a bind wink
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
brian wrote:
rob@rar, what a bind wink

I know, it's a hard life Wink
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
brian wrote:
rob@rar, the operational was a big cold outlier in FI....


I never thought of myself as stupid (till now rolling eyes Confused) but I haven't a clue what that sentence means. Embarassed I know there's jargon in all this weather stuff but I'm beginning to think the language I studied for my O-level English all those years ago has changed beyond recognition. wink

Still, if it all means there's snow on the way, I'm happy. Carry on the good work. Laughing snowHead you're all doing verrry well
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 brian
brian
Guest
Red Leon, sorry Embarassed

The run you actually see on the GFS charts is the operational. It's a big cold outlier because it's markedly the coldest of the ensemble set (the run is done several times with the inputs tweaked to reflect their accuracy) and FI is Fantasy Island, the lower res part of the run (beyond T+180) when the chances of it coming true are not the highest wink
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brian,
Thanks, Brian.

Although I look at the charts people post, I doubt I could make much sense of them even if I read all the available hints & tips on interpretation - so I leave the forecasting to others more able than myself.
I think it was the word 'operational' as noun and the word 'outlier' which confused me. I still have no idea what 'outlier' means - noun or adjective? Is it, perhaps 'a thing which lies outside of...' like 'outlying buildings'?

It's interesting to have such specialised knowledge available - even if some of it passes over my head.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
red leon, there is a "sticky" thread at the top of the snow reports forum, where Brian and others tried to explain the basics to me last year, worth a read IMHO

Cheers,

Greg
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
kitenski, Red Leon, just beware that the images in that thread are references to wetterzentrale, which get updated regularly, and not a one-off snapshot. Hence the text doesn't tie up with the plots. But it should sort of make sense.
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 brian
brian
Guest
For those of an excitable nature .....

2 (yes a whole 2, count them folks Laughing ) successive GFS runs have gone for a Greenland High to develop in far out FI. This is northern blocking, one of the holy grails of snow ramping for the UK because it cuts off the procession of lows across the atlantic and plunges cold air down from the arctic, comme ca ....



If such a block were to establish and hold for a while, western europe could end up very chilly, uncommonly chilly in fact snowHead

Anyway, even if it turns out to be cobblers (most likely) it could be the first herald of a pattern change .....
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
chilly and dry or chilly and snoooooooooow Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
For those uncertain of the terminology FI = Fantasy Island Wink

Having said that, I think it was a system similar to that which gave the cold weather last Christmas/New Year (-30ºC on the La Plagne glacier, for example).
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

western europe could end up very chilly, uncommonly chilly in fact

But would it not be uncommonly chilly and dry?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
thats what I was thinking Pam...just a dry cold blast from the north
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 brian
brian
Guest
pam w, not necessarily although it could be. However, some really cold air to the North meeting a moisture laden LP coming up off the med and there could be serious snow business.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
does it read good for Scotland Brian??
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 brian
brian
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kitenski, yes, that would be absolutely cracking for Scotland. Very Happy As I said though, strictly for interest only, it'll no happen Sad
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
In the slightly more realistic time frame Wink - anyone noticed the pressure of the centre of the LP progged for Sun/Mon?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
brian, moisture laden LP from the Med would be good news indeed, esp for Serre Che and LDA.
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Helen Beaumont, Absolutely!
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
skanky,

Yes - looks like its going to be very windy Skullie . Alan has a comment on it on Winterhighland here http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,55040,page=96
928mbars in the centre on Sunday





edited cos I can't press 9 2 and 8 in the correct order


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Wed 6-12-06 11:40; edited 1 time in total
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noooo, 928 if i read that correctly...ouch!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The latest run is showing a bit more confidence for moderate snow around Wednesday and then again on Friday. Temperature still fairly mild, so this may fall as rain at lower levels (below 1500m?), but higher altitudes should see a decent amount. My fingers are crossed for 60cm of fresh snow in Tignes by the weekend Smile
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:

noooo, 928 if i read that correctly...ouch

928.....928....928!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????????????? Duck.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
skinutter wrote:
noooo, 928 if i read that correctly...ouch!


926 or 925 has been hinted at. Of course, it could be 2hpa higher, and is unlikely to be 20hpa lower (nosebleeds all round). wink
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
This is from the Met Office web site:

"On 14/15 December 1986, the explosive deepening of a very active depression between Greenland and Iceland resulted in the central pressure falling below 920 millibars (mb). This is believed to be the lowest pressure recorded in the North Atlantic and, perhaps, the lowest in the world outside tropical storms and possibly the centres of violent tornadoes. The average atmospheric pressure is around 1013 mb, but the central pressure weather systems typically range from 950 to 1040 mb around the UK. "

What are the implications of pressures of this level in the Alps? Depends what's happening around, I suppose? Puzzled
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
pam w, whatever something very different has got into the charts today and I look to Brian and Skanky to the meat on the bones!! Blush
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
ummmm. that chart looks mighty different from when I went to bed..... Shocked
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
What are the implications of pressures of this level in the Alps? Depends what's happening around, I suppose?


That pressure level will be somewhere up in the North Atlantic, but already it seems to have been downgraded. Whether it will have an affect on the Alps, I'm not sure. It may well help build the high pressure over central Europe which will make it more difficult to for the fronts (such as last night's) to move through - but I'd expect there to be plenty of precipitation with it in front of cold air, so if any one that can down there it'll bring snow. The models don't often get a great handle on these lows (the details specifically), so the situation will be a bit fluid at the moment. It'll have an effect on Scotland though. It'll pump some "warmer" (relatively speaking) air in Saturday, Sat night and then blast it with colder stuff once the centre moves off. I wouldn't go up there on Sunday, that's for sure - but Saturday could be quite good.

That 1986 storm got down to 911hpa, and I've read somewhere that there was one in 1996 that got close (don't remember it though).
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