 Poster: A snowHead
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It' getting warmer - Northern French Alps has 1600m snow line tomorrow rising to 2200m 24 hrs later.
I really think this is the beginning of the end. I have been skiing for 11 years and have seen a massif difference.
I think it might be time to sell up before the French Alps Property Bubble bursts!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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your having a laugh, right? It's only the 3rd December!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The alps are prettier and more fun in Summer anyway, so who cares.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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David Murdoch, not me, our place is gorgeous in Summer.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Let's see - sell the place in the French Alps we gorgeous views and clean air or sell the place in London with no view, polluted air and a good chance of being mugged on the way home from the tube station?
Or, in global warming terms, sell the place in the French Alps at 1000m or sell the place in London near the Thames, which may well turn our 4th floor flat into a 2nd floor one.
| NorthWestFace wrote: |
| I think it might be time to sell up before the French Alps Property Bubble bursts! |
You're defo right NorthWestFace. You wouldn't happen to work for The Times would you? 
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NorthWestFace, good try. Must be a keen fisherman.......
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PhillipStanton, PhillipStanton, it's a no-brainer really.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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im no weather expert,but all the forecasts im looking at are saying theres a big drop in temps this week with a high possibility of a good dump later in the week,but if anyone wants to sell there nice place to me cheap then feel free to drop me an email 
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ive been skiing for as long as you
there has been late starts and early starts
this years late start is just a blip
Think about last year was an abundance of snwo in most places so dont give up hope just yet, maybe if its like this at february
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Wow did I hit a nerve? Guys!!! I know you are all ski nuts but if you just try and take the emotion out of it for a moment and take a few reality checks....
1. The trend does appear to be getting warmer, snow-line higher, winters arrive later and are shorter.
2. Less people renting your apartments will mean less yield, less mortgage paid etc
3. Less yield will mean property prices falling - fact!
4. Less people skiing will mean less ski lessons and less income for instructors etc
That's the bottom line and if people who own property want to think they can pay the mortgage with clean mountain air and instructors want to pay the bills posting pics then that's fine with me.
Now don't get me wrong here if the economics of the situation are not an issue for you due to a large stash of cash then you are very lucky and you may well choose to watch your asset depreciate in value over the next 10 years. That’s entirely up to you but I am sure you didn’t get so comfortable being so silly with the family jewels.
easiski,
Are you really trying to say things havn't changed over the past 50 years? I really don't see what relevance your post has got to do with anything I said. Just because I express the reality of a situation looking at your posts about cr4p conditions isn't going to make or anyone else feel better for long???
Helen Beaumont,
I take it a significant reduction in your yield wouldn't be a problem to you?
PhillipStanton,
Let's face it you will know exactly what's in store if you have a place in Morzine!
Regards
Northwestface - new snowheads hate figure 
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brian
brian
Guest
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NorthWestFace, have you ever noticed that on  s whenever anyone asks about a resort for early season (and that's usually defined as into January), everyone and their dog tells them to aim high and if possible, go somewhere with a glacier. Now, why do you think that might be ?
Certainly don't agree winters are shorter, last April and May were extremely snowy.
This time next week there is a better than even chance that the high altitude parts of the Wetern Alps will have great conditions. Last year at this time, the Austrians were enjoying a bumper start to the season. In my recollection, that's usually the case, the early season usually favours one part of the alps or another depending on what direction the weather is coming from. As we go through a few pattern changes everyone will get a chance at the white stuff.
... and if this is a global warming inspired rant, then even with the worst case "climate chaos" scenarios, Switzerland as one example would still have an all-winter snowline certainly below 2000m.
I think canny property purchasers will probably be looking for a decent bit of altitude in their chosen area, if the worst happens then demand will probably be squeezed into these areas and prices will rise if anything.
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NorthWestFace, My computer re-assures me it's December 3rd, and as others have pointed out there is a big drop in temperature forecast, along with precipitation over the next week. I think the biggest trend that has changed over the last 10 years or so is that technology has enabled like-minded snowheads to stair at long range weather forecasts and discuss them together online.
Every year we get the same "oh ****, global warming is destroying skiing". Whilst I am not denying there has been a subtle rise in global temperatures over the past 50 years, and that most glaciers are retreating (a trend that did start some time ago), I can't help but feel we tend to exagerate such stuff.
If next week the Alps get covered in snow (which would handy, as I am off to Austria in 12 days time) then everybody will be happy, panic over.
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You know it makes sense.
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| NorthWestFace wrote: |
It' getting warmer - Northern French Alps has 1600m snow line tomorrow rising to 2200m 24 hrs later.
I really think this is the beginning of the end. I have been skiing for 11 years and have seen a massif difference.
I think it might be time to sell up before the French Alps Property Bubble bursts! |
Winter seasons are getting later and shorter almost everywhere on the planet. Glaciers, on the whole, are shrinking. They have been consistent trends for the past 20 to 30 years. If that weather pattern continues, people buying property above roughly 2000m will see a premium in future years, as skiers seek out the most snowsure areas.
Regarding the immediate term -- all the 10-day indicators are for above-average temps, below-average snowfall and perhaps rain for most of the Alps. That means we are going to be well into the middle of Dec with very modest snow coverage at all levels below roughly 2500m. It is going to need a megastorm in the second half of this month for normal service to be resumed 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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NorthWestFace, I was wise enough to buy a property at a price that I could cover with our normal income, our rental income is a bonus, helps us to pay for our own skiing holidays. It's also at 1500m so not that low. In Summer it is a vibrant busy community, and not a deserted wasteland. People live there all year, people holiday there all year. We haven't had any paying guests in now for a few weeks, but that is through choice, as there was a lot of construction traffic building the new pool and sauna.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Regarding the immediate term -- all the 10-day indicators are for above-average temps, below-average snowfall and perhaps rain for most of the Alps. |
Care to share "all" the 10-day indicators???
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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[Okay your right nothing has changed in the past 50 years it's just a blip!
Next time your in a ski resort why don't you try asking a few locals what they think about the trend! I find it interesting that the French Government already have a strategy in place for the lower resorts of the pre Alps. Can't think why they would be doing that!
brian,
What are you harping on about early skiing for? Is this relevant? But if you really want to discuss you might find that the high thing is a bit of a myth - high rocks need lots of snow, low pasture needs very little - don't believe everything you read in the brochure!
On your prediction about high property going up in price - well done, what do you think might happen to the rest of the Alps?
It's like this guys - we have a finite amount of high skiing so less snow = less skiing opportunity, less skiing opportunity = less ski industry..............you get the picture.
In my posts I have made one very simple point and really don't see why people won't accept some very simple facts.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| kamikaze wrote: |
NorthWestFace, My computer re-assures me it's December 3rd, and as others have pointed out there is a big drop in temperature forecast, along with precipitation over the next week. I think the biggest trend that has changed over the last 10 years or so is that technology has enabled like-minded snowheads to stair at long range weather forecasts and discuss them together online.
Every year we get the same "oh ****, global warming is destroying skiing". Whilst I am not denying there has been a subtle rise in global temperatures over the past 50 years, and that most glaciers are retreating (a trend that did start some time ago), I can't help but feel we tend to exagerate such stuff.
If next week the Alps get covered in snow (which would handy, as I am off to Austria in 12 days time) then everybody will be happy, panic over. |
I suspect the truth lies somewhere between the two extremes of "everything will be fine" and "we're all doomed".
On balance, the best available stats currently indicate that ski seasons have shortened in most (but not all) parts of the world by between roughly 5% and 20% since the 1980s. For example, Killington used to operate regularly from Oct to Jun, now it struggles to make Nov to May.
If (if) current trends continue -- namely, seasons shorten by 5% to 20% every 2 decades -- then there won't be much left by the second half of this century.
It will surely snow in the Alps some time during the next few weeks. A month or two from now, we will all wonder what the panic was about. But whether one is an optimist or pessimist, it is difficult to deny that most (but not all) known climate indicators are presently pointing down, not up.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| NorthWestFace wrote: |
| really don't see why people won't accept some very simple facts. |
Perhaps because your facts may have crossed the fine line into over-simplistic analysis?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Helen Beaumont,
The fact that you can covert the cost is irrelevant to the economics of the point I am making.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| On balance, the best available stats currently indicate that ski seasons have shortened in most (but not all) parts of the world by between roughly 5% and 20% since the 1980s. |
Has there been a corresponding decrease in skier numbers over the same period?
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brian
brian
Guest
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NorthWestFace, could it be because you started with a forecast of rising temps for the next 2 days and then extrapolated that to the death of the entire ski industry ?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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rob@rar,
I really didn't think we needed to go into the micro economics of the situation. You seem to spend a lot of your time in the tarrentaise - any locals in any way worried about the trend, I don't mean the last three weeks - more like the past 20 years?
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brian,
"death of the entire ski industry" and when did I say that exactly? "French Alps Property Bubble bursts" is not exactly the death of the entire ski industry is it
again you apear to be missing the point.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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NorthWestFace, you asked me if a reduction in my yield would be a problem to me. I didn't buy it as a money spinner, I bought it as a holiday home, for me and my family to enjoy. YES, we rent it out when we are unable to use it oursevles. And notice I said 'holiday home' which means more than just skiing.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| NorthWestFace wrote: |
rob@rar,
I really didn't think we needed to go into the micro economics of the situation. You seem to spend a lot of your time in the tarrentaise - any locals in any way worried about the trend, I don't mean the last three weeks - more like the past 20 years? |
Sure, I don't think anyone is denying that change is likely to happen (although most locals I talk to seem to think that in the differences of snow cover over the last decade has just been a case of normal variation). But I've not heard anyone talk with the same level of doom and gloom that you opened this thread with. Resorts aren't sitting on their hands fearing the worst: artificial snow making is being invested in, with new cannons and new water supplies; high altitude pistes are being cleared so that lower snow depths will still be skiable; summertime activities are growing at a rate of knots, etc. I think some high altitude resorts (which I consider to be anything over 1800m) see that climate change my actually improve their offering to skiers.
I think the time to worry will be when we see a decline in skier numbers because of climate change. So far I've not seen anything which indicates that - in fact it doesn't seem to even be talked about.
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rob@rar,
"Has there been a corresponding decrease in skier numbers over the same period? "
Probably Not! I have no doubt it’s probably a rise.
It’s that fine line again but keeping it very simple, on the basis you accept some of what Whitgold says ….
DO WE HAVE A FINITE AMOUNT OF HIGH SKI RESORTS, HIGH SKI RUNS, HIGH SKI LIFTS
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WILL MORE OR LESS PEOPLE SKI IN THE FUTURE?
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WILL MORE OR LESS PEOPLE SKI AND LOWER ALTITUDE?
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WILL THE VALUE OF PROPERTY IN THE ALPS (NOT JUST THE HIGH PROPERTY) FALL OR RISE?
FINALLY, HAVE YOU EVER SKIED HALF TERM IN FEB IN A PACKED HIGH TARRENTAISE RESORT? WHAT WAS IT LIKE? DO YOU THINK THE RESORT WAS EVER NEAR CAPACITY?
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You know it makes sense.
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NorthWestFace, do we really need to shout about it. I thought this was a civilised discussion.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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NorthWestFace, I'd love to discuss this, but not if you prefer to shout
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Poster: A snowHead
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Helen Beaumont, rob@rar,
i apologise if you think i was shouting, i simply changed case to list the questions - whispering 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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NorthWestFace, just read your first post again, strangely we have been skiing for about the same length of time, but I can recall being worried that there was no snow on several other occasions. Our first holiday was in 1995, and the snow was awful until a few days before we arrived (end of Jan).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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According to one survey, 83% of the glaciers it studied around the world had thinned between 1970 and 2004.
According to a second survey, average global mountain-glacier thickness has fallen for 47 of the last 50 years:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Glacier_Mass_Balance.png
And if that is not enough for you, don't forget that the world was roughly 30% covered with ice 15k years ago. The ratio was around 10% in 2005. There used to be a glacier in North London. Now it is gone. That is about as long-term a trend as you will find anywhere.
Argument over.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Helen Beaumont,
i have been accused of over simplifying analysis - please don't fall into the same trap.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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NorthWestFace, ???
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Argument over. |
I don't see anyone arguing that climate change isn't happening, simply how resorts respond to this. I think that argument is far from over, in fact it's only just getting going as resorts begin to think how best they should respond to the potential for different weather patterns in the winter (and the summer). Any talk of collapsing property prices (my place has tripled in value in four years - if it were to halve in price over the next five years it would be equally irrelevant to my enjoyment of it), or declining income for people such as ski instructors is incredibly premature as far as I'm concerned.
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rob@rar, that's my point, I bought it for the enjoyment, not the money.
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| Helen Beaumont wrote: |
| rob@rar, that's my point, I bought it for the enjoyment, not the money. |
Me too, although I recognise that there's a large ski 'industry' for whom climate change is a real issue. All I'm saying is that the ski industry is not sitting on its hands doing nothing. It will continue to adapt (as it has done over the past 40 years), and will respond to whatever challenges climate change throws at it.
The real problem will be a collapse in the demand for skiing, rather than difficulties with the 'supply'. So far nobody has indicated that there is an imminent collapse in the numbers of people who wish to ski, in fact the opposite seems to be the case.
Argument over?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Helen Beaumont, rob@rar,
I give in, point totally missed and I find myself hearing about your favourite subjects again - your apartments!
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FAQ
