 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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MMMM... I like the look of those... shame they're a week away and likely to change loads... 
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brian
brian
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Yes, GFS is keen on a bit of atlantic ridging and a low forming around the North of Italy about T+168. ECM looks encouragingly supportive 
UKMO only goes out to T+144 but the ridge is certainly there as well. Unfortunately doesn't look (at this stage) as if it will hold up for long but certainly looks a damn sight more interesting than anything on the charts recently .....
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brian
brian
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Massive snowfall, massive snowfall, I love you, massive snowfall
You're always ten days away .....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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brian - you'll need to give me some help reading that chart. I presume blue and purple are "better", not "worse"?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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I'm guessing purple is 50mm, looking at the scale? Is that 50cm or 50mm snow or rain?
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brian
brian
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kitenski, the scale is in mm of rain, but 1mm is roughly 1cm of undrifted snow. Since it's in the lower res (beyond T+180, often referred to as Fantasy Island or FI) part of the run I think it's actually over a 12 hour period.
Typically at that range, it'll have no ensemble support and be gone in the next run. Ah well, at least it's nice to look at .....
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brian
brian
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btw, the corresponding FL was ~12-1400m, so schnee all the way if by some miracle it comes off.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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brian, we'd better get out and get the snowdance started then.
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so that'll get updated around midnight our time tonight Brian??
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brian
brian
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kitenski, the 18z is rolling now, the above will update in the next 15 mins or so.
Then you'll get the 00z from about 3.30am, the 06z from around 9.30am and the 12z from about 3.30pm.
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brian
brian
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12z ECM and UKMO both continue to support (along with GFS) low pressure forming over northern Italy towards the middle of next week. Looks like we may finally be seeing the back of the endless immovable Euro High, huzzah !
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brian, music to my ears, Happy St Andrew's Day.
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You know it makes sense.
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My fingers and toes are now crossed!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Fohn effect in Alps North's side, due to W-SW winds.
Here in Spain I have at least the first under zero mínimal temp. In the Pyrennes there is no snow, but next week we wait for a good dump.
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brian
brian
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12z today had about 70% chance of a good dump Tues/Wed. 18z operational didn't look too good, let's hope it was an outlier 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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yes brian, I am also waiting for that run.......not long to wait now!
Update: GFS 18Z run much better and FI in particular
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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hmm, if I read this correctly they are backing off the midweek dump being so big and dumpy now  and also not getting as cold
Still 5 days away so it can change back!
cheers,
Greg
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brian
brian
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kitenski, going on the 00z ensembles, it's very much in the balance how significant the snowfall will be. Fingers crossed.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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brian, would you agree that the trend for temperatures is downwards, so at least the ground will be that much colder. The FI charts all suggest much colder weather but of course outside the reliable timeframe.
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brian
brian
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lisach, absolutely. a cold front crossing the alps Tues/wed seems pretty much nailed on bringing more sensible winter temps and hopefully a decent dump.
Today's runs good
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brian, everything is crossed.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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You'll be the one on the right then Helen Beaumont, 
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FenlandSkier, 
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FAQ
