 Poster: A snowHead
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There was quite a debate on this thread
http://www.snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=20481&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
about the reliability or not of peasant weather forecasts.
One rule that French peasants use is the Quatre Temps - you will notice quite a lot of auberge, restaurants etc that bare this name. Even the huge shopping center in la Defense.
The rule is as follows
Tels Quatre-Temps, Telles saisons.
Si les Quatre-Temps amènent le mauvais temps,
il y en aura pour longtemps.
Qui fait bien son jardin au printemps,
le fait pour les Quatre-Temps.
Si les Quatre-Temps de septembre sont pluvieux,
l'automne aura de la crotte jusqu'à l'échine et même plus haut.
S'ils sont secs,
l'automne pourra mettre ses beaux habits.
Quand il pleut pour les Quatre-Temps d'automne,
il faut piquer les bœufs et les juments.
Lorsqu'aux Quatre-Temps d'hiver,
le vent qui souffle samedi à minuit est du sud,
c'est signe d'un hiver doux et pluvieux;
si le vent souffle du nord, c'est signe de neige et de froid.
The quatre temps are four groups of three days, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday which fall in spring with the first week of Carême (a catholic festival), for the summer following Pentecôte, for the autumn the 14 september and for winter the 13th december.
This autumn the quatre temps fell following the 20/09 and were marked by warm weather and wind from the south. The Vercors peasants, who seem pretty accurate on the whole said the autumn would be warm with wind from the south until Christmas.
Anyway I'm waiting for the Almanac du Savoie for 2007 to know what wax to buy for Christmas.
BTW positive temperatures in every European capital today and the warmest day on record in France, 15C above average.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The reality is that there are so many variables which determine weather, both amateur and professional forecasts are little more than an educated guess for guidance purposes beyond about 12 hrs into the future. Just this Fri, the weather forecasters were predicting gales across much of the UK -- most of them never materialized and they were on the telly 24 hrs later apologizing for the misstep.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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This works pretty well, and it can be used by even the most inexperienced beginner.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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wot does that mean???
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he lopped off the tops.
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or they are frightened of heights !
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
| My old farmer friend says the only certainty about the weather is that the weather is uncertain |
Admiral Fitzroy himself virtually said the same thing.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Well now the science (as they say), according to their seasonal forecast released this week Meteo France, using its supercomputers says that the next three months will feature above average temperatures in the France mainland due in part to el Nino which brought early snow to Colorado.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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davidof, thanks for the Quatre Temps - a really good bit of French culture, and just as likely to be right about the weather as the forecasters, I'm sure.
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I wonder if anyone's done a study to see how accurate Quatre Temps is?
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You know it makes sense.
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| skanky wrote: |
| I wonder if anyone's done a study to see how accurate Quatre Temps is? |
it should be easy enough to backtest for someone with the weather data (although I always feel backtesting on things like stockmarket picks shows what you want it to show!) and if it is accurate, why? Is there something about this equinox dates that sets the tone for the medium term?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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davidof, well as brian has said elsewhere most (all?) pattern match studies have shown the technique not to work. It would be interesting to see whether this one is better or worse than others. It would also be interesting to see what percentage of success (or perceived success) a method would need to be considered to be good, compared to what is needed to be useful. For example, there is an oft quoted "fact" that if you say the weather tomorrow will be the same as today, you will be correct 70% of the time. I don't recall seeing anything that says that's definitely correct, and it must apply to a geographical area, as some places will likely have less variable weather than that. Plus what is "the same"?
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FAQ
