 Poster: A snowHead
|
The main problem with these high temps is the ground has not frozen up like it would normally do from mid October & November. This is the case at much higher altitudes than normal 2-3K Metres . We are not talking about resort level here!!
Heavy snow on top of a wet unstable base is not a recipe for a good season.
Avalanches will be more upredictable, pistes will break up quicker , manmade snow will not cement to the ground
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
stanton, similar to last season then, just a bit later this year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Being a bit of a novice and not understanding the charts posted earlier, I'm assuming the out look for snow in austria is still looking bad?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Picking up a thread from yesterday If a slow or non-start to the season becomes the norm, would anyone consider changing their lives in anyway to try and help reverse the affects of Global Warming? I am thinking car and plane travel here. Or does the mentality "as long as its ok in my lifetime" become the common answer.
Dare I suggest that the gradual commercialisation and inhabitation of Alpine regions, paricularly France, combined with massive increased in cheap air travel are not helping at all.
There has to be reason why the weather is changing and while many dismiss GW as a factor maybe its almost too late and time to get heads out of the sand.
I personally know individuals who have built business models around a long winter-sport season whose attitude to the long term stability of our planet is wrong. Is a car that does 22.2 MPG really necessary?
Cue abuse..... 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mr Stanton is getting me very depressed. I think he does it on purpose. In fact looking at a few of his posts on almost any topic imagineable it gets me very depressed indeed every time. I've booked at trip to St Anton for a week from 15 December. This afternoon I shall phone up the TO to see if I can rescue any of my money. It was to have been in a chalet, so maybe they'll give me something back on the wine otherwise consumed. And the logs that will no longer be burned. I haven't worked out how to break it to my 11 year old son though - he's take to sleeping in his balaclava, he's that excited. It'll break his heart. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anniepen, I can't believe you were skiing when I was two! Only kidding.. 
I praise you optimism and I really hope it pays off, I'm really new to this stuff and will be enjoying my first ski trip on 7th Jan and the fact a lot of people are so worried about the conditions was worrying me. however a few people have told be that every skier worries just before season and and also a lot oif people have pointed out it is only PRE session.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
The weather is constantly changing, so winters getting warmer is no suprise whatever the cause.
Unfortunately we, the UK, can do Feck all. I think we produce less than 2% of global co2 emmissions. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
noggy,
I would not cancel.
The lift company claims that it can cover all the pistes in 3 days with manmade snow. So it only needs a cold spell & at nightime its pretty cold.
your still have great fun.
I,ve been there last 26 yrs and never NOT been able to ski Top to Bottom around the time you are going. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
stanton, Nice view by the way!
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
micksup, I don't think it's really the warmth as such that's leading to the doom and gloom, it's the lack of precipitation. As shown in parts of Austria a couple of weeks back and France last week, it's plenty cold enough for snow at higher altitudes. If the high resorts were reporting bumper conditions I think everyone would be a bit more chilled. The problem has been too much high pressure hanging about over the continent. Eventually it will shift enough to let a couple of storms through and we'll be fine.
It's not unknown for the snow to take an age to arrive, 1989 or 1996 anyone ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
brian,
| Quote: |
It's not unknown for the snow to take an age to arrive, 1989 or 1996 anyone ?
|
Would you like to share that for the benefit of us youngster's 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
noggy, there's two whole weeks for it to snow. Unless you were going to get loads of money back, which seems highly improbable, stick with it. Have you fixed any lessons? If anyone can find skiable snow, local instructors will, and then it wouldn't matter too much if there was not a big mileage of pistes open.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Sorry to be so cheerfull but I was watching the mountains on ORF 2 this morning, some of the temps figures were in double figures (they are normally sub zero). We have had precipitation in Austria it's just that the warm temps have melted it away. It is the warmest Oct & Nov since records began.
I'd stay with it though noggy. A couple of years ago it was really warm the week before I was to visit St Anton. The rain was killing the low level snow and things were looking bleak but I'd booked a guide etc and so stuck with it. Two days before I got there the temps dropped and it dumped big time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
boredsurfin,
cut'n'pasted from this pistehors article:
http://pistehors.com/backcountry/wiki/Weather/The-Effects-Of-Global-Warming-On-Skiing
"After the boom years of the 70s and 80s the first sign that things were changing came during the Christmas of 1988. There was a distinct lack of snow over the holiday period but there had been worse starts to the season. In January everyone was waiting for the situation to improve as it had done the year before. But the barometer remained obstinately stuck between 1035 and 1040 millibars, values normally associated with the fine summer months. Any snow seemed like a miracle from above. There were just two falls, of modest proportions, during the whole of January 1989. It was between 1500 and 1800 meters that the situation was really precarious. No more than 10cm at Autrans and 15cm at the bottom of the pistes of Megève."
I remember being in Verbier beginning of Feb 96 and conditions were not to put too fine a point on it, totally pants.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
I'm still remaining optomisitic for a reasonable level of skiing in Vallandry and Les Arcs over Christmas - the webcams show plenty of snow at higher level and there are tracks where someone has been skiing. Plus there are still 4 weeks to go.
Out of interest though, anyone any ideas about Insurance payouts due to Piste closure - is it complete lack of snow?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
ok ok ok ok
now from a novice understander of the weather and how it works
i have noticed that the end of this week it is getting colder (les Carroz for example where i will be christmas week) but the Freezing level is rising
all according to Snow forcast mind you, how is that?
Another question for the all the weather experts, does the Grand Massif benfit better form Northly winds due to the Lake Geneva senario where the moisture rises and the first bit of high ground it touches is the Massif therefore good snow records - more importantly for me Les Carroz!
Lastly was it a simular start to the season this time last year as i see from records Les carroz has had in excess of 20cms at village level (1140m) for the past 3 years, 50cms christmas last year!!! so plenty of positive coming from Jersey 
nice to hear what you all think
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
CrowJersey, always nice to see enthusiasm, but you are falling into the "sequence" trap that, if valid, would take the guesswork out of everything from lottery number to, well, snow conditions... Historic snow records are good to give you a GENERAL idea of average snowdepths at a particular time of year. What they don't allow for are statistical "blips" which buck the trend.
For example, as you've said, historically you would expect to see some snow on the ground in various resorts by now... but what is happening? Oh yeah, a statistical blip... If the average, say, for village x in the last week of December is 20cm of lying snow and this year there is none... next year only needs 40cm to put things back on track, right? This is why statistics are only any good for a general idea. Please feel free to be positive... but don't rely on historical records to tell you what you'll have this time around, it won't be accurate. None of the weather models has the faintest idea beyond a few days what will happen. I can pretty much guarantee you that one of the numerous model "runs" will get it right, when we have the benefit of hindsight to check, but we don't know which one will be right yet, so it could carry on warm, it could get cold, it could snow heavily, it may not snow at all.
All we have established is that no-one, not even Stanton's friend's mountain men know for sure what is ahead and you can't let it worry you. You'll be going anyway, so you just need to go with the mental attitude of "I'll enjoy whatever conditions I get" in order to make the best out of your holiday. It may start dumping snow really soon, it might not dump snow until the end of January, but I promise you that NO-ONE in the world knows for sure right now, so ignore the doom-mongers who say it's a write-off already and don't worry about things you cannot change... 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Chappers wrote: |
| Unfortunately we, the UK, can do Feck all. I think we produce less than 2% of global co2 emmissions. |
Although you represent less than 0.9 percent of the global population... So what was your point exactly? That you produce at least twice as much CO2 than the average person on the globe?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
I give in... The weather forecasters can't even say with any real reliability what temperature it will be in London tomorrow, let alone how much rain will fall and yet people believe the freezing levels, resort temperatures and precipitation amounts for an alpine region for days, even up to a week in advance? All this from a website that has the success rate of a Brighton Pier clairvoyant too...
It appears to me that people who are desperate for it to snow by Christmas are more willing to believe the forecasts for colder temps and snowfall than those who aren't going until later in the season... the phenomenon of "ignore the news you don't actually want to hear" when in actual fact, no forecaster has a real idea of what's going to happen anyway!
Therefore, let me tell you that I read in the blog of a reknowned local weather geek today that there is due to be heavy snowfall in most of the Northern French Alps by the weekend, with significant accumulations and this snow will spread to Switzerland, Germany and Austria by the end of the following week. Christmas is saved, people going out then will have so much snow, they won't know what to do with it. *
* some of the above forecast may be slightly made up, blatanly untrue or completely inaccurate, but don't let that worry you.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
so the same as my tea bags then Carled, but they said after the 10th of December I reckon....
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
brian, 88-89 was my first season working (Morzine). I believe it hadn't been great for the start of the year either of the two previous seasons. What really caused a problem, apart from snow not arriving in any quantity until 17 Dec (IIRC) was the high pressure system that then meant there was virtually no snow for about 6 weeks thereafter, although clear night skies and low temps did allow what was there to stay. And gave me a lovely suntan too.
Compare and contrast November 1998 when there was an almighty dump in the Northern alps on November 26-28. Quite a difference.
I would be really interested to see snow fall and temperature (not weekly average depth at x,xxxm <meaningless>) statistics going back for a reasonable climactic horizon. Surely someone on the internet has recordings from 10,000 years ago?
noggy, I would be amazed if any tour operator currently worried about snow conditions (well, they have too worry about something don't they?) will give you anything back. Personally I wouldn't consider cancelling (unless I was getting a full refund or an alternative holiday) because I just love being in the mountains.
I mean, would you cancel a week's clubbing in Ibiza just cos it was expected to be a little cloudy for a few days?
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
|
|
|
|
It was raining heavy throughout lastnight in Bern. Thought there maybe some snow up higher but it looks like it was to warm or the clouds were just to low.
http://www.swisspanorama.com/
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
[quote="davidof"]
You could set an example along with other European countries, then Blair's Blethering about climate change might carry some weight.
quote]
David, dont be silly, no one listens to that ejiit 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
Come May, there'll be unlimited skiing above 2000m but the resorts will be closed. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
Peter S, indeed .... and my apartment will be empty. Maybe a cheeky touring weekend could be put together, food for thought ...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Perhaps there may be some weather experts floating around here somewhere who may be able to put me right but anyway here's is my take on the weather situation. ( feel free to move this post if it needs to be in another thread ).
I don't know if the situations that affect the weather in th u.k affect the weather in France germany austria etc but if they do this might explain why there is a bit of a lack of snow.
We are currently experiencing Zonal conditions in the UK. The Jet stream is very active and running from east to west across the atlantic if I remember correctly.
This is what creates the stormy conditions that we have experienced across the country just lately. This also keeps temps very mild . As I said before, I don't know if this affects the weather in the other places I mentioned but if it does, I guess this explains some things.
So, lets hope the Jet quietens down very soon and then perhaps we will get loadsa snow in the resorts !!
Please feel free to shoot me down in flames as I am a complete novice wiv da wevva !!
Smiffo .
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
Smiffo, you are more or less correct however while zonality is the curse of the English snow watcher it is not necessarily a bad thing for the alps. In fact arguably the problem at the moment is that things aren't zonal enough. Stubborn HP is sitting over continental Europe and front after front comes roaring across the atlantic, deposits rain over the UK but fizzles out before it can dump anything meaningful over France or Switzerland.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
This kind of nonsense text/street speak:
| Quote: |
| ...wiv da wevva... |
is more likely to get you shot down in flames than any potential weather misunderstandings... Go and stand in the corner for 10 minutes.
The youth of today, honestly...
(cue Smiffo revealing he's 57 years old...)
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
2400m looks like it MAY be the forecasted lowest freezing level in France for the next week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ha ha !
34 to be honest, but because of my highly intelligent post, I put that little bit in so as not sound like a bit of a boffin .
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Dat's ow we all speak daan in hastins !!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
Unfortunatly without as much snow 
