 brian
brian
Guest
|
They're going for slightly above average* temperatures for most of Europe (average in Scotland). Average precipitation everywhere. That should be pretty good news as long as some of it arrives early.
http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/winter2006_7/europe.html
They've done really well with their last 2 winters so interesting to see how it goes.
* average over the period 1971-2000
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Interesting that Scotlands predicted average - there's already a dusting of snow at Cairngorm and The Lech (haven't checked the webcams at the other Scottish areas yet).
Maybe Scotland will be the safe place to go to ski this year! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Also:
| Quote: |
| However, later in the season, there remains a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps. |
| Quote: |
| For the UK as a whole, a winter with average or above-average precipitation is the more likely outcome. |
Last winter was cold towards the end, but drier.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
'Later' in Met Office speak means February.
That would continue a pattern from the last couple of seasons for big falls from mid Feb onwards with excellent skiing in Scotland during March and April.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| Quote: |
| 'Later' in Met Office speak means February. |
Yes, as they are talking about winter - Dec/Jan/Feb
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
I don't understand,
"Elsewhere the odds are currently even for above or below normal temperatures."
Would someone who knows better please explain where exactly I find the informational content of this statement? I would have thought the odds on being above or below normal were close to 100%? So it's either self-evident or evidently wrong?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
David Murdoch,
| Quote: |
the odds are currently even
|
A few years a go when I was a contract Manager my job took me to the Met Office in Bracknell where they showed me, with pride, their performance set against the newly announced Government targets for all Govt organisations.
The Met Office target for accuracy of forecast was set at 40% correct for that days forecast,
when I queried 'that day' I was informed that it was the bulletin Broadcast after the 9.00am news on Radio 4!
So not really gambling men!
Or people that think 60% wrong when looking at that days weather is a success 
Loads of information on their website at http://www.meto.gov.uk/
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
boredsurfin, a day runs from 6am to 6am so the forecast (I would assume ) would be for until the following morning. Anyway that rating was probably for "PRP" which the government insisted on introducing.
The current forecast accuracy is now rated as up in the 80s: http://www.meto.gov.uk/corporate/verification/index.html
Anyway, the winter forecast is an experimental one, and the last two years were pretty good.
Anyway, as far as I can see, this statement:
"Elsewhere the odds are currently even for above or below normal temperatures."
Seems like it means nothing on it's own, but if you look at the alternatives it makes sense. There is either a signal that suggests temperatures will be above average, a signal that suggests below, or no clear signal either way. This is the third one. Even if it is the default one, it's stated for completeness.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
David Murdoch, I think they are saying that they expect the temperatures to be close to the average values ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
| Drier than average conditions are favoured over parts of southern and eastern Europe |
hmm this doesnt bode well for the Alps \ Pyrenees then!
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
| Quote: |
David Murdoch, I think they are saying that they expect the temperatures to be close to the average values ?
|
No, I don't think it necessarily means that, it just means what it says. There are as many (or as few) reasons for expecting it to be above normal as there are for expecting it to be below normal. Or, presumably, for expecting it to be average. So, for the moment, their models give them no reason to make a prediction on temperature. Or, in other words, they don't know. There's no point trying to read more into that statement than it says, no matter how much we might wish it otherwise.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
zippy, the pic that goes with that statement shows S and E to Italy, Greece and the Balkans rather than the alps/pyrenees.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyone know the name of that small blob in the middle of Sweden?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
nordicfan, it's an interesting place to have such a large blob. Does that site have a map of average Swedish precipitation distribution (I've looked can't find it)?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
nordicfan, thanks for that. Could the first two be seasonal averages?
Anyway, it appears that the blob mentioned above doesn't quite sit over the area of lowest precipitation, but it's close enough to make me wonder if that explains its existence.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
