 Poster: A snowHead
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| redeye wrote: |
| Hi, Sorry for the stupid question - when looking at the Wetterzentrale 'graph' the line that shows temperature - how can i tell what altitude this is based on please? |
850hPA = 1,500 metres (roughly)
This is the one to refer to as it would give you an indication of where the approximate snowline might be for the resort you're interested in ...
You can use the 1C = 100 metres rule of thumb but all this stuff is much more complex and depends on wind direction, air density, moisture content, topography + (importantly) localised conditions ...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Polo - four letters
Noza - four letters ???
Coincidence??!!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Is Whitegold still going ?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@phillip33, except Noza wasn't his username......
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| Is Whitegold still going ? |
Yes
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| Is Whitegold still going ? |
Yes - he goes by the name Ed Miliband and is on a crusade to reverse climate change so that we're all skiing / boarding champagne powder from the Pyrenees to the Julien Alps from October to late June.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Page 6 got me excited  Hopefully double figures soon Polo keep up the good work.
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‘Noza’ is Swahili for mint. Just saying.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Page numbers might not correlate well with snow conditions.....entertainment yes....I mean a few years back the tragic xmas spell with lift pylons sliding down wet green meadows attracted huge interest.
Am busy winterizing stuff. Snow to about 1700m today NW, models again overestimated the day time snowfall here, but often its just delayed until evening / nightfall. My rule of thumb for day time snowline is the FL (as opposed to FL minus 200m), anything below that is bonus. It's always hit and miss locally once the main front has passed thru. Skies looked pretty clear over Geneva this evening....maybe a few flakes tonight in the hills with others areas doing better. Thursday still looks the best pattern wise NW...good quality snow with 15cm to low levels possible. Monday on is more borderline with high pressure closer, and more moisture off the atlantic....so looking good for a lot of snow above 2000m and with luck lower down.
Haven't been pouring over the charts though.....was nice to take in some fresh northerly air today
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Im sticking my head out for a Cold December. Thinking 2000, 2009, 2010.
A bit UK centric in parts re the drivers of my thinking.
1 flooding - severe flooding has recently hit parts of UK similar to these years - record wet and warm uk Nov especially midlands and wales cumbria similar to those years.
Similar:
2 weak La Nina
3 deepest negative Indian ocean dipole since 1996 (used to keep an eye on this with focus on weather patterns in Australia grape harvests, now working with California so will have to get my head around drivers there)
4 easterly QBO
5 a warm AMDO and cold PDO
6 leaving a solar max
7 a very early weak polar vortex emerging since perhaps 1968.
8 Sudden strat warming signals for the earliest SSW since 1968 (poo-poo wine vintage around the world! - 2025 not great) - 1968 had a cold december with loads of snow if I recall in Dec and feb 68/69.
9 MJO going to phase 7? Similar to 2009 along with weak PV, easterly qbo, weak La Nina could this combine with the PV wobbles could be interesting with whats happening in the strat and trop….all very interesting and all tbc/effect. Could the PV split?
10 feel it in my bones, snowed on our wedding day 25years ago this dec!
Extended models mid December have a ridge of high over atlantic/greenland and trough over europe similar to Some of the combined winters mentioned above (plus other notable cold decembers)
I dont know what others think, what are the pinecones saying in the alps?
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Literally half of my winter tyres are on now, the front ones....back wheels are still on bald summer 21" alloys thanks to anti theft nut key getting mangled beyond use. Will I be OK in 10-20cm of light snow in an old 4WD? Steep driveway at 1300m upon final destination arrival friday 9am?
A great example coming up this week of a possible bug in the models as there was very little precipitation showing for thurs-fri across all the ensemble suites just a few days ago, despite the same output showing great synoptic pressure charts....for snow. You'd think it can't be that simple, yet it seems to be there a lot....ppn backtracking upwards to match original pressure potential. 
At the same time charts like thurs don't come around every month.
Had a quick look at Monday, a warm sector gets pulled up from the SW but the alps are starting from a very cold base, so FL bump might not be too significant. The means for NW alps don't get much above 0 at 1500m, with a few Op runs going positive, so worst case am thinking 1800m FL. Quickly dropping into Tuesday.
Interested to hear what others think....am not following it closely.....weekend will be fine, but have a mate who wants to tour monday.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Ackie68, yes, from the pinecones
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
thanks to anti theft nut key getting mangled beyond use.
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it's hard to understand why anybody without exceptionally special wheels bothers with these.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Yes. Except you might have an old car. And this might be only the second set of anti theft lugs personally shredded. My local man Felipe today swore to never again accept customers requesting them. As he drilled out the final 2 ever.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
My local man Felipe today swore to never again accept customers requesting them
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 When I went to a spares place, to get some ordinary wheel nuts to replace the anti theft ones on my latest (second hand) car the guy told me that cars like mine NEVER had wheels stolen these days.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| polo wrote: |
Interested to hear what others think.... |
yR.no feeling more positive for sunday monday tues other than overnight weds/thurs am.
But the local scenarios are key fingers crossed.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Origen, lucky to have a local mechanic mate....he's Portugese, so we speak perfectly bad french to each other.
I lost a rented Fiat Uno 123 something during 99 CL final in a small town outside Barcelone, stumbled in to the local police station at 6am telling them my car had been stolen. He asked for the details of the car and last location, then shook his head and said "I can assure you, nobody around here is ever going to steal that car".
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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WeatherToSki: Updated 9.20am Wednesday 19 November 2025 – More snow on its way to the Alps!
This new storm will most benefit the northern Alps and eastern Alps where between 15 and 30cm is likely on Thursday and Friday with the snow falling to very low levels. This will be encouraging for areas like the Portes du Soleil where 20cm or more is likely even at 1000m, something barely seen in the last couple of seasons, let alone in November.
A secondary “low” in the northern Mediterranean will also pep up the precipitation in the south-east tomorrow, meaning that the Dolomites should also do quite well.
Areas that will see the least snow over the next couple of days will be in the inner Alpine western Alps (including Zermatt) but, even here, a few centimetres of cold powdery snow are forecast.
The weather in the Alps will remain cold for the foreseeable future, turning sunny for a while over the weekend before snow returns from the west on Sunday night, with a very snowy week expected next week.
Needless to say, snow conditions in the Alps continue to improve as we approach the main winter season and, with lots of snow in the forecast, there is good reason to suggest that the 2025-26 ski season will have one of the better “season openings” of recent years.
What really stands out about the current set-up in the Alps is that cold air is locked in now, with no prospect of any the sudden or dramatic thaws that have been so troublesome in recent years!
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Yes most place look very cold for a good spell now, so even if the snow falls this week are tending more to dusting than dumping, resorts can get cannons running to help augment the base, hopefully with more natural stuff to fall next week.
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It's starting right now in the NW. Interesting to read other forecasts but I personally don't agree with everything above....most Novembers have been good, last December was very good to 1200m....and as for "no prospect" for any thaws that have been troublesome, surely referring to the holiday period which is over a month away. Can still have thin conditions on Dec 20th below 1800m and see it wrecked in 2-3 days. Chance of a warm spell in December is definitely not zero.
Optimism is warranted like any year after a significant early snowfall and I think this one will be pretty good. Canons were running today at 1200m locally. 2 days of good snow on the way to well below 1000m and then Sun-mon-tues will be heavier, probably wet snow at 1500m intitially Monday before cooling again Tues-Wed. 50cm plus above 1800m early next week has good ensemble support.
Looks more like it will be a very early SSW around 27th Nov, so that will likely impact the trop by mid Dec on average
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511180000
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Does a SSW always result in Arctic air flowing towards the Alps? Or are there other possible outcomes? Is this a signal for a cold second half of December if the SSW does occur?
Last edited by After all it is free  on Wed 19-11-25 21:50; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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No not always, but it increases the odds. There are many factors to look at, can’t go into it now, the bottom line is it will likely force arctic air south, in several areas of the northern hemisphere ….and the timing impacts can vary hugely (can be quick, slow, short lasting or long), and from no discernible impact to something historical. Impossible to forecast but from I can tell via the robots this would be the earliest ever recorded, no1 being 30/11/1958. Other recent early ones were Dec 2006, most occur in January, with one every 2 or 3 years.
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@polo, thanks.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Can multiple SSW events happen in one year? So given that we're seeing one late November here, could we see another one around, say, New Year's?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
no prospect of any the sudden or dramatic thaws that have been so troublesome in recent years!
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Sounds like one of those screaming Daily Express headlines which declares that the whole country is going to be "blanketed" in snow. 
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You know it makes sense.
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@cb97, yep, multiple SSW’s occur about once a decade. Am getting mixed analysis from AI, which says last season even had 3!
Not all SSW’s are the same, eg major / minor, a vortex split or just displacement, and whether they are trop driven (start low down) or vice versa.
Key Statistics from AI
• Overall ~63 % of all major SSWs are followed by a negative NAO/AO phase lasting ≥ 2 weeks → colder risk over most of Europe.
• ~70–75 % probability of at least one pronounced cold spell (≥ 7 days significantly below average) somewhere in northern/central Europe.
• Only ~25–30 % of SSWs produce little or no cold in Europe (usually very late events in March or extremely weak/downward-weak coupling).
In many cases there is no clear link with the alps, ie 2-3 weeks later we get some typical NW flow…..doesn’t mean it’s due to the SSW. I think the reason they are so hyped is that they can lead to huge disruption from time to time, eg 2009/10 big freeze, and beast from east 2018.
For me the main driver is just the speed of the Strat vortex, as long as it’s way below average like now then the odds increase for cold lower down.
This week of snow would likely have occurred whether winds were +5m/s or -5m/s (SSW), given the average historical speed is closer to 25m/s into early Dec.
Anyway some snowy scenery already this morning in the valleys and plenty more into tomorrow, with stronger winds. No change for Monday, with rain to 1800m possible NW early before dropping to 1000m during the day.
@Ackie68, saw a few of those scandi runs for end of next week, less so on today 0z. You mean EC46 for mid Dec? Or another model that goes that far….anything possible, I’ll start looking again more closely if it ever stops snowing.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Origen wrote: |
| Quote: |
no prospect of any the sudden or dramatic thaws that have been so troublesome in recent years!
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Sounds like one of those screaming Daily Express headlines which declares that the whole country is going to be "blanketed" in snow. |
“5000mile snow front blast the UK bringing 60m of snow” type thing
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Poster: A snowHead
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| polo wrote: |
@cb97,
@Ackie68, saw a few of those scandi runs for end of next week, less so on today 0z. You mean EC46 for mid Dec? Or another model that goes that far….anything possible, I’ll start looking again more closely if it ever stops snowing. |
Mid dec was a bit opportunistic, more like appearing around 5th 6th….i thinknit was the GFS 6z….i lnow!!!!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I theory both. Yes main thing as the high builds upfronnthe south to the nordics and even further it blocks of weather pattersn from the west but can reduce precipitation as a result.
But then the cold can then digs in from the north or east to the east of the east of of it.
Generally its a cold and drier pattern for the alps
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Snow almost down to Lake Geneva level today and staying cold for the foreseeable future, with some precipitation coming up too.
I flew over the Alps from Albania yesterday and could see lots of snowmaking had started in many Alpine resorts, so this cold weather will only help with that
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| Quote: |
Hi, Sorry for the stupid question - when looking at the Wetterzentrale 'graph' the line that shows temperature - how can i tell what altitude this is based on please?
850hPA = 1,500 metres (roughly)
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Just a quick (and no doubt daft) question on this - I have always used the 850hpa as that seems to be the consensus from those in the know on here, but why not use the 2m temp? On quick glance, it looks a pretty accurate prediction of temps where I ski.
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| Whitters wrote: |
Snow almost down to Lake Geneva level today and staying cold for the foreseeable future, with some precipitation coming up too.
I flew over the Alps from Albania yesterday and could see lots of snowmaking had started in many Alpine resorts, so this cold weather will only help with that |
A lot of snow over our way. Rochers des Nayes train might be busy in the morning!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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850hpa is the general consenus as it is a cleaner way of looking at the nature of prevailing airmases without the affect of topography, surface conditions, vegetation and boundary layers.
It also looks at more regional situation to look at airmass patterns vs local scenarios.
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@Ackie68, thanks, makes sense now
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