 Poster: A snowHead
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@afterski, I live in hope, not expectation
@under a new name, innit. Last 5 opening weekends in Val D the've had only about 4 lifts open, and two years ago opening was delayed by a full week (although prematurely announced as it turned out). But I'll still be there again at 9am on opening day (but doubt I'll be using my new skis until mid-December earliest)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Dylan_T42 wrote: |
| afterski wrote: |
| @Dr John, Is there a thread only for irrational exuberance rather than this miserable reaslism? |
TBF it's only miserably real if you're not 2.4km up, at the end of an Austrian valley! Though I note they're also running the snow cannons
So @afterski, to be irrationally euphoric you probably just need to be 'Going Hoch, Hoch, Hoch'  |
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Some wintry webcam images from Saas Fee, Tignes and Zillertal this morning 
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I'd be more optimistic than others on here about this snow sticking around. Slopes above 2400m on North facing slopes I reckon are odds on to stay white. Take this forecast for Grimentz
https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/previsions-locales/grimentz/3961.html#forecast-tab=weekly-overview
Most nights it will get down to approx 4.5 degrees at 1577m. If we assume that you lose 0.6 degrees for every 100m of altitude than the isotherm zero line will be about 2300 - 2400m in the coldest part of the night. Areas that are getting overnight refreezes should start to form a base that only melts slowly.
Obviously if beyond the 8 day forecast it then rains to 3000m then it will all tun green again but that it about as likely as further snow falls, which would be needed to stop the base slow melting away
Could easily be wrong, but not impossibly for this to be the start of the season's base in the areas that have had the most snowfall
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@rambotion, it's not really a question of optimism or not.
The key point, though, is "above 2,400m" ... so, f'rinstance, that's +/- above the whole PdS.
I don't expect what's in my garden at 1,000m to last the day.
+ Your calc doesn't take into account events between now and season openings like rain, or the foehn.
So, yes,
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not impossibly for this to be the start of the season's base in the areas that have had the most snowfall
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but only at altitudes where you'd +/- normally be starting to see accumulations. Not e.g. the home run to Morzine.
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@under a new name, Two posts on the previous page saying that below 2700m or 3000m it would mostly melt. My take on the snow staying into the season is therefore more optimistic than theirs. There also is discussion on exuberance versus realism so it is not as though I have introduced the concept of optimism to thread and I explicitly acknowledge that if it rains to 3000m then the bulk of it will melt.
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Should hang around above about 2700 i think. Wepowder said it would melt beliw that.
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Will this amount of snow hang around over 3000m into the season do people think?? Assume most below will melt unless in sheltered north facing areas??
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@Dr John, Is there a thread only for irrational exuberance rather than this miserable reaslism?
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@rambotion, yehbut, nobut. I'm not convinced false optimism is helpful to lurkers who don't have a lot of snow related experience.
Even if what's fallen above, say, 2,400m stays for the season, it's not a lot of help for any of the very brit popular resorts between here and GVA - Cham, PdS, GM, Aravis, etc.
That said, I would note that I'm hoping to get out for a little skin from 1,900m tomorrow.
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Even if what's fallen above, say, 2,400m stays for the season, it's not a lot of help for any of the very brit popular resorts between here and GVA - Cham, PdS, GM, Aravis, etc.
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But is good for Brit-popular areas like Tignes, Val Thorens, Les Arcs/La Plagne etc that have a lot of high terrain 
Anyway, irrespective of whether the current snow sticks around or not, it's still nice to see at this time of year
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@mountainaddict, sure, but no-one worries about whether any of those areas are "snow sure" or not, do they?
Unlike anywhere between here and Geneva.
Probably (not certainly) good news for the PSB f'rinstance.
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@under a new name, Its not ‘yehbut, nobut’. You criticised my use of the word optimistic with spurious justification. My take is more optimistic than what some others have posted, and I explained and caveated my reasoning behind this, and then further explained this to you.
It’s irrelevant that some areas are fully below 2400m as I didn’t say how this will relate to skiing conditions at any given resort. Regardless, plenty of terrain, on and off-piste is above it, and it doesn’t take a lot of nous to google the height of the top lift of the area that you going to, although the PdS does obfuscate this and slap 2466m on lots of its literature to hide its true height (or lack of).
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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A ski instructor friend of mine who lives in Aime La Plagne says it pretty wet snow at resort level but there is "a good solid layer up top".
Val D'Isere say 75cm depth at 3000m. On the webcams I have seen bashers being deposited by low-loaders -e.g. in La Daille this morning. Some are at the botton of the runs in Val Claret, This suggests the locals think they have some chance of establishing some runs, or at least to farm what has fallen.
Based on the last 30 years I tend to go with what the locals think. To me plenty of signs that they are seeing this storm as the start of their winter work. Even if that is just on the high runs. But one storm dos not a winter make. The resort level fall is very unlikely to survive the coming milder temps.
Out in late Nov in Tignes - I am sure that I will at least some upper runs available.
To me the big difference from years gone by is that long winter cold snaps are far rarer. Now you get a large snowfall and the next day its well above freezing. So the fluffy stuff does not hang around like it use to.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
Even if what's fallen above, say, 2,400m stays for the season, it's not a lot of help for any of the very brit popular resorts between here and GVA - Cham, PdS, GM, Aravis, etc.
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But is good for Brit-popular areas like Tignes, Val Thorens, Les Arcs/La Plagne etc that have a lot of high terrain
Anyway, irrespective of whether the current snow sticks around or not, it's still nice to see at this time of year
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@mountainaddict, not when you're trudging around at 1,000m through slush as the sleet comes down! Properly wintery though.
@rambotion, I think you have missed my point, my fault. But not to worry. I mean, if this really does herald an epic winter, then that's fantastic.
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You know it makes sense.
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Early snow like this whilst welcome can if followed by a warm period can become quite a troublesome weak layer in the snow base .
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I'm going to settle this dispute with a bold prediction
If this snow doesn't stick around, more snow will fall and will stick around. At some point.
Deal?
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Poster: A snowHead
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@8611, I fear not much of that will still be around by next August though 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Filing under things you are unlikely to hear about here, especially in this climate of caution about the meaningfulness of early snow, or the preposterously low odds of it lasting under any circumstances …or god forbid snow fans getting mildly aroused by the stunning scenery that is autumnal snow.
Reykjavik recorded a record 27cm snowfall in October, today.
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Tue 28-10-25 22:12; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Friend of a friends garden. That’s a good looking 27cm.
and nice work for sea level.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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A very wet set up up for the Lake District and western Dales. Very warm saturated air has already dropped 165mm of rain in the last 24hrs at Honister. That’s 6 and a half inches. Another 80mms is possible by tomorrow lunch time. Minimum overnight temp is 13c and 16c is possible the next couple of days 
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| Le Grand Renard wrote: |
| Early snow like this whilst welcome can if followed by a warm period can become quite a troublesome weak layer in the snow base . |
And the warm period has arrived. Lots of warm sunny days but cold clear nights ahead
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@Le Grand Renard, @t44tomo,
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Le Grand Renard wrote:
Early snow like this whilst welcome can if followed by a warm period can become quite a troublesome weak layer in the snow base .
And the warm period has arrived. Lots of warm sunny days but cold clear nights ahead
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My understanding was that early snow followed by a cold period was troublesome as this gives the right conditions for depth hoar to form. Warm conditions will leave a well bonded snowpack. At altitudes high enough that the temperatures are cold, maybe 3000m but this is a bit of a guess, it is likely that the snowpack is already thick enough (approx 70cm in Val d'Isere) that depth hoar is unlikely to form as depth hoar requires a fairly thin snowpack. Again only time will tell, maybe some shaded mid altitude slopes will have the right conditions for depth hoar formation but I don't think that the conditions at the moment will be resulting in a widespread weak layer
Additionally, that the predictions that it is all going to melt to are not compatible with predictions of a weak layer forming, if the snow pack is soggy with +ve air temperatures then depth hoar can't form
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Yes, there is high pressure this week and yes the jet stream is particularly unfavourable, but anything 7+ days is not trustworthy to take information from
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This tropical air over the British Isles is so potentially dangerous for the west. No doubt it caused the land slip and derailment at Shap. It has now dropped over 14inches of rain in parts of the Lake District during the last three and a half days ! The east of the Pennines has had a small fraction of that.
It’s a good indicator of a much warmer Atlantic with temperatures again approaching near record highs.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=natlsp
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14" @Peter S, that would make an awful lot of snow......11'-8"? That would set anyone up for the season.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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There it is again, low pressure to the SW messing up a potent northerly. Keep’s cropping up last 5 years. But at least it’s bringing cold air south, under west based -nao.
Strat winds also dropping steadily into month end. Something the -qbo signal is correlated with, but would still be very unusual if current forecasts are correct about zonal winds into early Dec. Way below average and possibly an SSW. Never seen one this early though and only a few ensembles going negative at the moment.
Some shenanigans definitely on the cards, cold heading SW from 13th, warm in the alps, then lots of options for how the low moves NE. UK could be chilly under easterly.
EC46 weeklies show improvement week 17th
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202511050000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202511240000
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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We are talking 7d range, not a suprise
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Fluctuations are common/expected at that range
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Big temp gradients to the north and south europe, but those lows Are just not moving out of the way keeping the very mild unsettled wet weather over the mainland. However, is there a change seeing the lows drifting east bringing down the cold air round the 19th/21st. Big blocking mid atalnic signals ???? But all very uncertain and no consistancy between runs/models……
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Ackie68, yep almost every time we see Greenland high - scandi low these days the cold gets diverted too far west, towards an Azores-Iberia low. Scotland could end up 20 degrees colder than the alps as they are just about on the cold side of the NE-SW jet. And we get a North African heat plume.
Am not seeing much precipitation for alps under this SW flow (12-14th) as this time it’s even more west than usual (Portugal looks wet). Could change of course with an eastward shift but not much rain appearing on the ensembles at the moment until 3rd week.
None the wiser though for which way this will go…..almost all of the 12z runs initially drifted west post the warm spell (leaving high pressure over alps), until ECM and AIFS came out and kept the faith, drawing enough of the Atlantic low east across the alps and then much colder northerly flow mixed in.
It will resolve soon…..stark differences at the key 8-9 day range. Problem is if there is any back tracking from the 2 better models towards a half way house blend then snowline remains high.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Whats your view on the SSW potential?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just watching for now, mean Strat westerly winds seem to bottom out near 10 m/s, with only 6 or 7 ensembles out of 100 going negative (SSW) into month end. So looks more like a very weak or displaced vortex rather than a technical SSW (which would need net easterly’s).
Not too bothered if it doesn’t slow further, these strat events are a fickle bunch. But any major slowdown increases odds of polar air moving south, so the current forecast is good well into Dec.
Strat forecasts are more reliable than trop forecasts beyond a week or two as there are far fewer variables high above than down here in the valleys.
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Yep!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Snow&skifan, we were there in 1999 as beginners….stayed in Banff, nice town, great snow
Speaking of which, 3rd week of November is resolving itself nicely on the latest runs.
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| polo wrote: |
@Snow&skifan, we were there in 1999 as beginners….stayed in Banff, nice town, great snow
Speaking of which, 3rd week of November is resolving itself nicely on the latest runs. |
Loved Banff the town.
We had 11 nights in Chateau Lake Louise. We were not wealthy by any measure, I just happen to spot a price anomaly in the First Choice winter sports 1999/00 brochure when it was released and grabbed it 
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What are we thinking about the GFS runs (this one for Tignes) for a cold spell post the warm spell!??
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@kitenski, the mean temps are similar across the 4 ensemble sets I look at, dropping from 15 to near zero by 19-20th approx.
So a strong signal but a lot of spread clearly at that range. Looks like the troublesome biscay low will start to merge east rather than west, which brings down the cold air, but it’s a bit messy with some modelling showing another low heading to Spain, whereas we want it more towards Italy.
Too far for any detail but yeah signs of an improvement over last few days. Situation by Monday week has the alps stiil under mild SW flow, but edging closer to a switch.
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High pressure seems nailed on for greenland/midatlantic/scandi but are the lows messig around? A lot of messy posibilities.
Vested interest: son VP southampton uni ski club, heading to Les D A for 13th dec
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FAQ
