 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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After seeing forecasts about El Nino and La Nina for years I generally now shrug and say whatever as they almost never forecast what happens in Europe accurately.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The article is a month old...whats the latest?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I posted in the same spirit as DoTM - what will be will be. Local conditions can be great in an awful year etc etc.
But interesting nontheless, I think.
long range forecasting an interesting science.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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or Never mind the ...
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| Quote: |
long range forecasting an interesting science.
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Definitely interesting and I follow the current year weather thread closely but given the inaccuracies involved shouldn't it be better referred to as long range speculation 
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@valais2, yeah.
Total bollox.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Dave of the Marmottes wrote: |
| After seeing forecasts about El Nino and La Nina for years I generally now shrug and say whatever as they almost never forecast what happens in Europe accurately. |
Probably true - interestingly it appears accurate in North America, and have based trips around it, and been very happy 
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Give me a white strip in a green field, long enough and challenging and I am content.
The future is grim and expensive but we will still ski, this year and hopefully a few more.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I've concluded most long range forecasts are pure click bait...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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"Oh dear, how sad, never mind" springs to mind.
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| snowheid wrote: |
| Quote: |
long range forecasting an interesting science.
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Definitely interesting and I follow the current year weather thread closely but given the inaccuracies involved shouldn't it be better referred to as long range speculation |
I spend quite a lot of time with big developers and operators of wind farms and hydro plants.
Sometimes it looks like there might be a weather/cimatte trend emerging and this becomes a topic of conversation.
They have been consistent that they find no efficacy in forecasts more than 3 weeks ahead. "You can imagine, we spend a lit of time looking at this and just can't get any value beyond 3 weeks".
Given their incentives I take this as reassurance that there is no point worrying (or getting excited) about these kind of articles.
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You know it makes sense.
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| jedster wrote: |
| snowheid wrote: |
| Quote: |
long range forecasting an interesting science.
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Definitely interesting and I follow the current year weather thread closely but given the inaccuracies involved shouldn't it be better referred to as long range speculation |
I spend quite a lot of time with big developers and operators of wind farms and hydro plants.
Sometimes it looks like there might be a weather/cimatte trend emerging and this becomes a topic of conversation.
They have been consistent that they find no efficacy in forecasts more than 3 weeks ahead. "You can imagine, we spend a lit of time looking at this and just can't get any value beyond 3 weeks".
Given their incentives I take this as reassurance that there is no point worrying (or getting excited) about these kind of articles. |
3 weeks...I wish I could get a forecast that was good 3 days ahead at the moment. In the interseason I am trying to build a house, can't do groundworks/foundations when its wet and muddy. All summer guiding I could only give clients a rough idea of what the next day's weather was like, never the next week. So horribly unreliable at the moment.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Weak la nina presume means colder so better snowmaking and general slope conditions?
After 2 February half term trips with mid teen temperatures I'll take the cold weather
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Bones wrote: |
| Dave of the Marmottes wrote: |
| After seeing forecasts about El Nino and La Nina for years I generally now shrug and say whatever as they almost never forecast what happens in Europe accurately. |
Probably true - interestingly it appears accurate in North America, and have based trips around it, and been very happy |
My experience tracks with both of these comments. Around here anyway, if they predict "heads" we don't get "tails". But predicting tendencies from ocean currents is one thing. Taking that information and hoping to forecast specific weather in specific areas is a bridge too far.
We used to hope for decent coverage by Thanksgiving/late November. Now it's Christmas.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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One thing I’ve noticed over the last 10 years or so is that the forecasts are getting less accurate. I’ve put it down to the fact that most rely to a certain extent on trends and models from the last 100 years or so which are now a bit irrelevant due to climate change. Just my guess, I’m no expert and probably just a load of what is in the title of this thread!
But if you accept there might be some truth in it my theory means that if they can’t predict the next 3 weeks or even 3 days, then how can they predict the next 3 months?!
Either way no matter what happens in 3 months, 3 years or 3 decades, a week or two in a nice hotel in the Alps (or similar) is better than a week or two in the UK!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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No one is mentioning the sun spot cycle. I suppose its effect is variable depending on where you are eg southern europe is effected less than northern europe.
In the UK and Germany this high amount of sunspot activity is generally correlated with lower rainfall.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@snowheid, or soothsaying?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Idris wrote: |
| jedster wrote: |
| snowheid wrote: |
| Quote: |
long range forecasting an interesting science.
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Definitely interesting and I follow the current year weather thread closely but given the inaccuracies involved shouldn't it be better referred to as long range speculation |
I spend quite a lot of time with big developers and operators of wind farms and hydro plants.
Sometimes it looks like there might be a weather/cimatte trend emerging and this becomes a topic of conversation.
They have been consistent that they find no efficacy in forecasts more than 3 weeks ahead. "You can imagine, we spend a lit of time looking at this and just can't get any value beyond 3 weeks".
Given their incentives I take this as reassurance that there is no point worrying (or getting excited) about these kind of articles. |
3 weeks...I wish I could get a forecast that was good 3 days ahead at the moment. In the interseason I am trying to build a house, can't do groundworks/foundations when its wet and muddy. All summer guiding I could only give clients a rough idea of what the next day's weather was like, never the next week. So horribly unreliable at the moment. |
well I didn't mean to suggest any degree of precision out 3 weeks, just some useful information content
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FAQ
