 Poster: A snowHead
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Temperature looks a bit mild over the next week or so with not much precipitation around in most areas of the Alps. Any changes on the horizon?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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All the models show a change to cooler conditions with some precipitation from the New Year. Don't expect details until after the weekend.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| japes1275 wrote: |
| Temperature looks a bit mild over the next week or so with not much precipitation around in most areas of the Alps. Any changes on the horizon? |
Likely from New Year although still a bit too far out for detail/snowline.
It is not raining at the moment and there is plenty of snow on the slopes so nothing to worry about from a few mild days.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks, all looking pretty positive - well pretty fantastic if you’re lucky enough to be out there at the moment! I’m off mid to late Jan so just keeping an eye on things, anything can happen between now and then but nice to know it should get colder next week.
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Interesting charts as early as 2 Jan, next thurs. Euro high gradually draining W-NW and heading towards Greenland. The first attempt to track south is looking ok on 2nd, but the background is supportive of further attempts into week 1......arctic high (-AO trend), strat wind dip, trop vortex moving east, MJO7 etc, as before.
Thats a deep low heading towards Ire/UK new years day, need to see how far SE it can disrupt.....but I'd expect to see Met Office wind warnings, maybe another new named storm. Potentially disruptive.
For the alps, looking good for another cooler snowy spell as the low digs SE.....still not full consensus from models on how much cold air, and how far west.....but right now, looks like a brief top up to low levels.
       
A bit further out 3-6th, some of the charts are loaded with wintery synoptics, particularly ECM AI, which has been showing some extraordinary high lat blocking around greenland/iceland, consistently.......run after run. it would be a big win for AI if that comes off, as no other mid range modelling has seen it as a possibility......until todays 12z, now starting to get picked up from a few others. These are seriously cold and snowy synoptics if they come off around the 6th
 
EC46 week1 keeps improving, last time I showed it there were residual heights over europe, but those are are gone on the latest output.....with the jet stream heading further south, albeit a little too far SW ideally, it's a cracking weekly average
Summary.....early new year storm on the cards....first attempt looks ok for alps (2nd), less so UK, while a theoretical reload around the 5-6th is looking even better as things stand.
It's still only late December but this season so far, and the modelling seems different, despite so many poor long range signals....solar max, wQBO, long range models, warm seas, weak MJO / ENSO blah blah but but but
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Fri 27-12-24 21:20; edited 1 time in total
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Yes ECM definitely peeking the interest tonight. Cold and snowy for all if that comes off.
In terms of modeling so far this winter it has been unusually good/accurate to my eye. There has been a pretty consistent pattern of steady high pressure with lows dropping through the uk and dumping snow on the alps. Good steady base build with sun to enjoy the snow in between.
Also note that the high pressure anomalies, which seemed negative back in November have been pretty accurate. There have been just enough brief low events to keep the snow topped up.
As has been said many times watch for the patterns and don't take the numbers too seriously until 24 hours before.
This next event will probably give another good top up and my guess would be for the uk high to collapse but also a fair chance it will move N to join with the artic high maintaining the cold for longer.
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@polo, thank you, really appreciate your insight and commentary.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@scottishandy, yeah very much agree....though not sure what you mean about 'high pressure anomalies, which seemed negative' in Nov`? You mean the long range forecasts of above average heights each month? The December one in particular wasn't too bad.....mid atlantic centre, we'll know the real world comparison in a few days but I suspect it was close, and something I think we all would have taken as a good result. The rest of winter wasn't looking as good (re. Nov and Dec baselines), but that will update soon as well.
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Yeah I meant average height anomalies. I think there were some ec46 forecasts which were advertised as doom and gloom. Just making the point that they were probably pretty close to the mark but results turned out OK.
Is it just MJO that's driving this latest N Atlantic high? Not been looking as closely as I sometimes do.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@scottishandy, well EC46 in my view is unreliable, even at week 2.....fun to look at, but am losing faith, better off looking at ECM-GFS-GEM day 10 mean anoms I think. And as you say, the pattern and trends are more important than any numbers. I was thinking more about the long range monthly anom charts from Copernicus C3S.
MJO basically skipped phase 6 (possibly Nina easterly trade wind interference?), but it's still active and forecast to head into weak amplitude phase 7....greenland high.....in any case, there would normally be a lag of a week or two. It is just one background driver of course.....hard to say what's driving the projected early Jan pattern.....but the NH profile is looking good either way.
Totally agree with you that the modelling seems accurate, and so far, all the poor outcomes have not played out......lucky streak? probably
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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A lot of uncertainty in the near term re. jan 2-3rd....first 5 models here show the New Years day low brushing the alps
    
But 4 others including ECM have high pressure hanging on and only the east end would benefit
   
The GFS ensembles seem pretty convinced of a widespread top up, but on balance it looks like a glancing blow is more likely along northern ridge 2-3rd. But with the relatively deep shortwave zipping across small changes in the track could see big dfferences in initial snow line, if it heads SE at all.
Beyond the first window, there are signs of a more prolonged spell of interesting weather via the expected greenland high. But as ever there are complications for the alps, with the southerly tracking jet and lingering heights to the east.
Looking at the 3 mean anomaly charts for 5-6th, only GFS (middle) has the ideal set up, other 2 are extending down to the azores low, so a risk of milder SW air getting mixed in. Also included the EC46 for first week of Jan to compare to last update....higher pressure now seen to the east, so quite a narrow gap over france.
   
Meanwhile ECM AI is like a broken record but playing out a classic. Every run for a few days now shows a strong atlantic ridge amplified northwards......leading to many days of cold and snow into most of europe, 6th and 10th below.
 
Clearly that is beyond the reliable, but the consistency is unusual for any model at that range. Only one or two other models see a similar outcome, but likewise there are many much worse outcomes in the mix as well.
Quick look at ECM 00z ensembles for NW sums it up really.....a lot milder than what GFS is showing for 2-3, and then huge scatter further out, a +10c to -10c range isn't telling us much yet, but at least the mean is trending lower.
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@polo, guessing we're too far out but any idea what the 4th looks like as a traveling day? Looks like there's a couple of solid days of snow beforehand so I'm hoping they dump themselves out before a lovely sunny drive up to La Plagne (can dump once we get there).
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You know it makes sense.
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Neither ECMWF or GFS forecast significant snow falling on Saturday 4th.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Cheers. Crossing all my fingers that it isn't mid-dump on Saturday.
I don't mind dodgy weather, got decent tyres etc but don't fancy hours crawling up the hairpins from Aime having been on the road for 14 hours by that point.
Basically, if the weather gods could keep it nice and sunny then dump snow every night except Saturdays from say 4pm-10pm that'd be wonderful
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Northern Alps (Europe) has plenty snow.
This is snowy Valais, Switzerland, here.
Southern Alps, not so good, particularly Italy, badly need new snowfall.
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Many people here are confused by the Alps delimitation ("northern Alps, western Alps, southern Alps" ...)
It is only Western and Eastern Alps, with the boundary roughly extending from Lake Como to river Rhine in the north.
Each "section" has its own "subdivisions" - Southern Limestone Alps (mostly Italy, east of Lake Como) and right now this part "badly needs new snowfall". It's snowfall is influenced with Mediterranean weather patterns. So called "Genoa low" is (mostly) good for this part of the Alps re. snowfall.
Valais is techically "Western Alps".
ie. St. Anton would be "Northern Limestone Alps" part of "Eastern Alps" ...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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ECMWF forecasting intense cold for Switzerland from 5 January day and night. Looks like daily maxima as low as -9C, minima -20C, at 1,900m. @polo are you seeing something similar?
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
| ECMWF forecasting intense cold for Switzerland from 5 January day and night. Looks like daily maxima as low as -9C, minima -20C, at 1,900m. @polo are you seeing something similar? |
Seeing this on Snowforcast for Paradiski cluster too. Cold but doesn't look windy currently.
Too far out but did go and check I hadn't got rid of thermals ahead of my trip!!
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| streetsahead wrote: |
| Snow&skifan wrote: |
| ECMWF forecasting intense cold for Switzerland from 5 January day and night. Looks like daily maxima as low as -9C, minima -20C, at 1,900m. @polo are you seeing something similar? |
Seeing this on Snowforcast for Paradiski cluster too. Cold but doesn't look windy currently.
Too far out but did go and check I hadn't got rid of thermals ahead of my trip!! |
The same, ECMWF forecasting mean winds less than 10mph. Interesting that a sustained very cold spell, at that southerly latitude, won’t come at any stage with strong polar or arctic winds.
Yes, the full array of face-masks and balaclavas will be packed  .
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| Cheapski wrote: |
Many people here are confused by the Alps delimitation ("northern Alps, western Alps, southern Alps" ...)
It is only Western and Eastern Alps, with the boundary roughly extending from Lake Como to river Rhine in the north.
Each "section" has its own "subdivisions" - Southern Limestone Alps (mostly Italy, east of Lake Como) and right now this part "badly needs new snowfall". It's snowfall is influenced with Mediterranean weather patterns. So called "Genoa low" is (mostly) good for this part of the Alps re. snowfall.
Valais is techically "Western Alps".
ie. St. Anton would be "Northern Limestone Alps" part of "Eastern Alps" ... |
Graphic map required maybe... 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I don't know how to post pictures ... sorry 
I wish i could, it is fascinating to see and would make more sense to understand how Alps although relatively small region could have a vastly different weather/snow patterns ...
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Northern Alps (Europe) has plenty snow.
This is snowy Valais, Switzerland, here.
Southern Alps, not so good, particularly Italy, badly need new snowfall. |
5 days of light but predominantly southern winds from 4th Jan will sort that out.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@t44tomo, Plenty of time for that to change was rather liking the other scenario cropping up of cold and snowflakes until last night not very happy that the cold/warm battle ground seems to be north of the alps at the moment .
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The GFS 00z run showed how the interaction between south atlantic and north sea lows can lead to mild air for parts of the alps.....despite the excellent northern hemisphere pattern (vortex over the eastern side, greenland ridging). Often in these situation with such a southerly jet you see deeper cold over the UK than the alps, with L shaped isobars and lot's of sea level snow up there. This was picked up by the models before xmas....showing mid atlantic ridge forming at year end but also leaving residual heights (high pressure) over europe.
Here's how that GFS 00z run see's temps around 4-5th.....warm sector of +4C over much of western alps. 50mm of rain to 2000m.....it was big outlier vs it's ensemble mean but it's even worse now on the 6z.....2800m iso.
Not getting picked up by all of the other models though for 4-5th, selection here showing the mild air further south
  
So overall it's going to get colder, potentially for at least a week.....but there is a very real risk for the alps of warm air getting mixed in at times from the SW. It's always high risk reward with this pattern, as oppopsed to the more typical NW flow off the atlantic that we have had so far this winter. Models will likely show some wild swings run to run as they work out how much influence the azores low will have.
A bit further out on the 7th, some charts to illustrate how marginal and messy the current outlook is.....all variations on a theme, but high pressure to the south is still a threat to otherwise epic synoptics
  
Re-visiting the means for 5th. GFS still looks the best of the 3, ECM not bad but would rather not have that isobar looping down to the azores, while GEM has too much high pressure to the SE, preventing the deeper cold from reaching the alps.
  
Summary.....2-3rd still looks over done from GFS, especially for the west, not expecting much here.....then 4-6th anything could happen.....deep snow to torrential rain.....beyond that the risk reward remains high, would be remarkable bad luck if the alps miss out. Enough potential in there for all parts of the alps to get good amounts of snow if we can avoid the catastrough to the SW.
Last 3 GFS runs to the 7-8th, UK/Ire might get most of it
  
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GFS via wetter3.de forecasting a metre of snow across swathes of the NW Highlands. Be interesting to see if that pans out.
I’ve seen similar forecasts previously on wetter3. Sutherland, Ross and Cromarty experience temperate winter weather due to sea temperatures from the Gulf Stream.
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You know it makes sense.
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^ that would be very helpful so yes please let’s book that one in thanks and I can get to work (Patrol)
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The forecasts are all over the the place - it’s gone from a nice top up Thursday/Friday and then clear skies all week, to snow Saturday and Sunday possibly a bit of rain and snow on and off all week.
We’re going to Arcs 1950 on Saturday and at the moment my wife has packed a kerzilllion bags to cover all bases !
Unfortunately we are on the train this time , but I have a plan , my daughter’s body pumped boyfriend- he can carry the bags.
It’s been a while since I’ve been in this site and I’ve noticed Noza has gone and a new guy Polo is the flavor of the month- or is he Noza undercover after Whitegold trolled him !!
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Poster: A snowHead
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It looks like there will be precipitation next week although the snowline will be a bit up and down. I'm off to Tignes so hopefully will be high enough to avoid any wet stuff.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@ManiaMuse, yeah. Saturday is looking pretty "interesting" for the drive down there. We're in Belle Plagne so hopefully lots above 2,000m once we get there.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@paulhinch we're the same on Saturday to Belle Plagne - safe trip and its looking like a super week coming!
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Snow-Forecast is oscillating pretty wildly between low freezing level/lots of snow and high freezing level/lots of rain for the next week or so. My understanding is that this is GFS. I'm not sure exactly how to check the other models, what does the average outlook look like at this point?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@cb97, I find meteoblue pretty reliable …
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Well the 3rd is looking better, and while the uncertainty around 4-6th snowline is still there.....todays 12z an improvement on last nights runs so far (not hard), and then the 7-8th is also looking good if the SW flow can be interupted to return the alps to more of a Northerly air source.
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| cb97 wrote: |
| Snow-Forecast is oscillating pretty wildly between low freezing level/lots of snow and high freezing level/lots of rain for the next week or so. My understanding is that this is GFS. I'm not sure exactly how to check the other models, what does the average outlook look like at this point? |
The one I use to compare is YR.NO. It is raw Ecm data. Ecm usually better for general pattern prediction but precipitation forecasts are pretty wild up to 24 hours in advance (currentlyshowing1.2m of snow for Tignes by next Wednesday! ). Basically the models can't do accurate precipitation further out. If SF and YR are similar then there's a reasonable chance they will be not too far from the truth.
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Please snow Thursday through to Saturday night - then more of what they’ve had the last 5 days - sun
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| scottishandy wrote: |
The one I use to compare is YR.NO. It is raw Ecm data. Ecm usually better for general pattern prediction but precipitation forecasts are pretty wild up to 24 hours in advance (currentlyshowing1.2m of snow for Tignes by next Wednesday! ). Basically the models can't do accurate precipitation further out. If SF and YR are similar then there's a reasonable chance they will be not too far from the truth. |
I’m a big fan of yr.no as well but it was a bit wobbly this Australian winter just gone. But over the past 10 or so years it has done very well by me and helped me with lots of plans.
Pretty sure SF is GFS.
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YR is pushing snow almost every day from Friday for La Plagne - SF looks quite similar for the wknd - I can't see further than that
It certainly looks like its going to be unsettled and probably not sitting out drinking beers in the sun - thats for July in Spain anyways
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