 Poster: A snowHead
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@cb97, 5cm rain and 27cm is a typical NW pattern, and will be nothing like a washout, you'd need to reverse the numbers to have any concern and then depending on many other factors, how deep is the current base and what happens after the rain etc....foehn winds, mild, or refreeze. It's all about how the storm finishes....
@Whitegold, "rain is the new snow", heavy below 1800m.....what are you smoking? Your often accurate forecasts are about to take a hit. Apart from the first few hrs tomorrow, at no point over the next 5 days does the snowline get above 1800m. You did remind me to look back at last years thread (also around the page 20 mark), and guess what, you used the exact same line. Which was unfortunately correct at the time....we had 150mm of rain from 10-12th Dec to 2400m, followed by a spell of 10c at 1500m, leading to a proper wash out / greening of slopes below 1500m in france. The year before was also tragic just before xmas....so last 2 seasons had much bigger early dumps of snow low down, and both were largely washed away for the busy festive week.
Fast forward to today, and while we've only had 2 reasonably good snowfalls so far, the outlook is surely for one of the best xmas weeks in living memory. Anyone take a stab at the last time we had full coverage and deep snow below 1500m by the 24/25th? I've only been skiing/boarding for 9 years, and into the weather for about 6....so this is easily going to beat all my previous xmas'y sliding. Guess Dec 12 or Dec 10 were last comparable years? And 17/18 was good I think.
No change in the near term.....epic across the board.....here's GFS 06z out to 23rd....so very much in the reliable zone and supported by all of the other models. Even at 50% it's going to be amazing.
Found a new set of ensembles as well, from the UKMO, often the 2nd most accurate model in the 5 day range, and a conservative one at that. Here is its view of snow depth at 1200m PdS.
Maybe only 10cm new at village by Friday morning, but then 80cm by monday  . I will still take half of that.
Longer term....still just tentative signs the post xmas euro high will either shift a bit NE (low odds, but would allow cold air in from E/SE), or start to weaken and gradually move W-NW around year end.
Anyway, I'll probably ease up on the daily ranting here....more sliding, less copy pasting.....the home run base will be set as well as it can for time of year....can't wait
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@polo, Thanks for the recent update, much appreciated.
Looking and sounding very positive for a good set up going forward!
Really happy for the lower altitude resorts who have had it rough the last few seasons!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
I'll probably ease up on the daily ranting here
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Please don't - there are a lot of people following you here.
Hope the back is almost ready for the season now!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| polo wrote: |
| .we had 150mm of rain from 10-12th Dec to 2400m, followed by a spell of 10c at 1500m, leading to a proper wash out / greening of slopes below 1500m in france. The year before was also tragic just before xmas....so last 2 seasons had much bigger early dumps of snow low down, and both were largely washed away for the busy festive week. |
last year early December was excellent but as you said it was all washed out by Christmas below 1500-1800m and didn't come back unti March. Ok for places with mega snowmaking. So far things look slower but better this year.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Black spots on the wepowder snow maps but where's the freezing level going (said in John Virgo "where's the cueball going!" excited gasp)
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| polo wrote: |
@cb97, 5cm rain and 27cm is a typical NW pattern, and will be nothing like a washout, you'd need to reverse the numbers to have any concern and then depending on many other factors, how deep is the current base and what happens after the rain etc....foehn winds, mild, or refreeze. It's all about how the storm finishes....
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So the days after this next dump get very mild where I'm heading in the NW Alps, freezing level above 3000m for a few days. How can you tell the difference between a mild spell and a foehn in the forecast? If it is mild but with high-speed winds from the south, then it would be considered a foehn? And I'm assuming foehn is worse than a regular mild spell?
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The foehn is a particular kind of warm and gusty wind that happens under specific circumstances, and that can raise the temperature by 15 degrees or so. It's not just the fact that it's from the south, it also has to do with specific pressure gradients.
It's been such an issue the last few years before Christmas because it's come with absolutely torrential rain, and the combination stripped snow away like a hairdryer.
I don't see much wind forecast for the next week.
A bit mild for a few days has much less effect on the snow, not enough energy is transferred from still air and low sun to have much effect on the pack. Snow at this time of the year doesn't melt that easily, except when it's unseasonably mild, windy and wet as described above. Which has been the case for the last two or three winters in the French Alps.
One big issue from last year was the path that the Jetstream took, with a real battle royale between seriously cold arctic weather, which gave Scandinavia a bumper snow season, and hot, hot weather getting pushed in with a lot of energy from the south west, with the dividing line passing backwards and forwards over the north western alps. Some days the temperature gradient was twenty degrees or more between each side. We don't seem to be having the same scenario this year.
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An interesting added extra to the coming blizzard Sunday to Tuesday is the intense cold. Using my favourite ecmwf location this winter of Arosa, at resort level -12C to -4C. If this comes off, the entire Alps will be a winter wonderland. Xmas/Boxing Day arrivals so lucky.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| polo wrote: |
@cb97, 5cm rain and 27cm is a typical NW pattern, and will be nothing like a washout, you'd need to reverse the numbers to have any concern and then depending on many other factors, how deep is the current base and what happens after the rain etc....foehn winds, mild, or refreeze. It's all about how the storm finishes....
@Whitegold, "rain is the new snow", heavy below 1800m.....what are you smoking? Your often accurate forecasts are about to take a hit. Apart from the first few hrs tomorrow, at no point over the next 5 days does the snowline get above 1800m. You did remind me to look back at last years thread (also around the page 20 mark), and guess what, you used the exact same line. Which was unfortunately correct at the time....we had 150mm of rain from 10-12th Dec to 2400m, followed by a spell of 10c at 1500m, leading to a proper wash out / greening of slopes below 1500m in france. The year before was also tragic just before xmas....so last 2 seasons had much bigger early dumps of snow low down, and both were largely washed away for the busy festive week.
Fast forward to today, and while we've only had 2 reasonably good snowfalls so far, the outlook is surely for one of the best xmas weeks in living memory. Anyone take a stab at the last time we had full coverage and deep snow below 1500m by the 24/25th? I've only been skiing/boarding for 9 years, and into the weather for about 6....so this is easily going to beat all my previous xmas'y sliding. Guess Dec 12 or Dec 10 were last comparable years? And 17/18 was good I think.
No change in the near term.....epic across the board.....here's GFS 06z out to 23rd....so very much in the reliable zone and supported by all of the other models. Even at 50% it's going to be amazing.
Found a new set of ensembles as well, from the UKMO, often the 2nd most accurate model in the 5 day range, and a conservative one at that. Here is its view of snow depth at 1200m PdS.
Maybe only 10cm new at village by Friday morning, but then 80cm by monday . I will still take half of that.
Longer term....still just tentative signs the post xmas euro high will either shift a bit NE (low odds, but would allow cold air in from E/SE), or start to weaken and gradually move W-NW around year end.
Anyway, I'll probably ease up on the daily ranting here....more sliding, less copy pasting.....the home run base will be set as well as it can for time of year....can't wait |
Just want to thank you @polo for all your posting very interesting to follow
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Chamonix meteo suggesting 120cm snow in the valley by Monday. Snowmaggeddon weekend approaching.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@snowdave, He’s always too optimistic
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Le Grand Renard, I find him pretty accurate from an Argentiere perspective- even within the valley there’s quite a variance, and he’s clear that the 120cm is for the head of the valley (1450m) so Chamonix itself could be a lot less.
He’s definitely an improvement on automated models picking numbers from the op run!
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@polo, Thank you for all your efforts and posts.
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You know it makes sense.
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Zero iso is around 2800m in the NFA at the moment. Very strong SW winds keeping it warm. Snowline above 2000m but will drop later.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@davidof, Interesting view from Meteo Alps this morning
 Avalanche risk:
Rain in progress (up to 2300 meters this morning in some places! ) are, again, good news... For the risk of avalanche.
Once again, rule crusts will form between the different fragile layers that formed during the anticyclonic periods (especially on the northern slopes) of recent weeks.
This doesn't mean that the avalanche risk is moderate, but it is a little less significant than if the rain hadn't invited.
This avalanche risk will increase significantly over the weekend and early next week... We'll tell you more very soon!
Have a nice day.
@snowdave, I do hope he’s right
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Le Grand Renard, yes, the rain will stabilize things... below 2300m but rain crusts are not necessarily good news as you can get weak layers forming above them due to the temperature gradient they cause.
| Quote: |
Quantities of snow expected between now and Friday 8am:
Around 800-900m: 5-10cms between the Vercors, the Belledonne, and the Chartreuse; 2-7cms elsewhere
Around 1100-1200m: 15-20cms between the Vercors, Belledonne, and Chartreuse; 10-15cms very locally 20cms on the Haute-Savoie, Beaufortain, Val d'Arly, Jura, and Bauges sides; 5-10cms elsewhere
Around 1500-1600m: 25-30cms between the Chartreuse, Vercors, and Belledonne; 15-20 very locally 25cms between the Bauges, Beaufortain, Val d'Arly, and Haute-Savoie massifs; 10-15cms between the Maurienne, Haute-Tarentaise, Vanoise, and Oisans; 5-10cms on the Haute-Maurienne.
Above 2000-2200m: 35-45cms between the Massifs hauts-savoyards, the Beaufortain, the Val d'Arly, the Belledonne and the north of the Haute-Tarentaise (La Rosière); 25-35cms elsewhere and even 15-20cms in the Haute-Maurienne.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| snowdave wrote: |
| Chamonix meteo suggesting 120cm snow in the valley by Monday. Snowmaggeddon weekend approaching. |
I just saw that, looks promising. We're driving upto Argentiere on Sunday , looking forward to some decent conditions .
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| snowdave wrote: |
@Le Grand Renard, I find him pretty accurate from an Argentiere perspective- even within the valley there’s quite a variance, and he’s clear that the 120cm is for the head of the valley (1450m) so Chamonix itself could be a lot less.
He’s definitely an improvement on automated models picking numbers from the op run! |
He’s definitely been over optimistic for the two ‘big’ snowfalls we’ve had so far. I wish his reports included a section on what actually happened in the last 24 hours according to his measurements. Sometimes I wonder if he’s measuring something different to what you see on the ground after it’s settled etc.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Le Grand Renard, I've always found them pretty much the best, for Chamonix, being real hoomans and all, and focussing very locally (although always a good guide for surrounding areas).
@hold_my_biere, I think everyone's been over optimistic for the last two forecast dumps?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Weather looking a bit more settled and with better visibility after Christmas Eve.
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Temperatures now beginning to drop markedly. Snow is now falling to below 1,000m in the Jura and that cold air will spread progressively southeastwards as this second front moves across the NW Alps.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 19-12-24 17:32; edited 1 time in total
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As predicted, heavy rain today in Europe up to 2000m.
Chamonix and others look like a wet Wednesday in Dublin.
After the rain, comes the snow.
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Heavy snow in VT right now
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@denfinella, that will be good. About 3C in Cham and it's been bucketing down for an hour or so. To dark to see LPN but maybe 1,500-1,600?
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Its snowing in Pila, hurray!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Looks like one of the best Xmas’s in memory coming for those lucky enough to be on the slopes!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Ackie68 wrote: |
| Heavy snow in VT right now |
Using the latest AI model 
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @denfinella, that will be good. About 3C in Cham and it's been bucketing down for an hour or so. To dark to see LPN but maybe 1,500-1,600? |
It transitioned to sleet/snow just as I came out of the paravalanche tunnel before Argentiere. Not settling yet- still some surface water around from earlier.
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You know it makes sense.
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It's been bucketing down with rain all day in Les Saisies village (1600m) but turned to snow now. Very much as forecast.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| kitenski wrote: |
| This is always a good watch when it's dumping (let it pan to the road in the dark) ! |
so frustrating isn't it waiting for it to move to the right spot, shame the snow isn't black so you can see it coming down in front of the snow........I'll get my coat..
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Ackie68 wrote: |
| Heavy snow in VT right now |
Someone in my family skied in that snow all day. The 9 others in their group took the day off!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
| As predicted, heavy rain today in Europe up to 2000m. Chamonix and others look like a wet Wednesday in Dublin |
But it's Thursday @Whitegold 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
| Ackie68 wrote: |
| Heavy snow in VT right now |
Someone in my family skied in that snow all day. The 9 others in their group took the day off! |
Son said it was wet tho' especially in his cow outfit
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Ackie68 wrote: |
| Snow&skifan wrote: |
| Ackie68 wrote: |
| Heavy snow in VT right now |
Someone in my family skied in that snow all day. The 9 others in their group took the day off! |
Son said it was wet tho' especially in his cow outfit |
LOL.
They did say it rained heavily all day in Meribel.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Yes, what a difference a few hours can make!
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| Origen wrote: |
| Yes, what a difference a few hours can make! |
Is Espace Diamant worth visiting for a week, we’ve never been? Would be a future January. Bearing in mind climate change, NOT meant in a Whitegold or Stanton way!).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Will the combination of rain, saturated air, strong winds and minus double digit temperatures lead to icy pistes or will the depth of new snow and pisting prevent that before the sun comes out next week ?
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@Peter S, there'll be loads of new snow, I wouldn't imagine ice would be an issue at all.
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FAQ
