 Poster: A snowHead
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Goodness me the Snow-Forecast.com prediction is astonishing. I’d be overjoyed with even half of that!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Georgert, presume you were looking at GFS 06z run earlier on snow-forecast which has now been over-ridden by the 12z, big differences run to run there as most of the snow on that 12z run went east quickly. That’s why it’s best to look at as many different sources as possible (eg YR.NO uses ECM data) as all the models will chop around more than 4-5 days out. The ECM 12z btw was better.
We don’t know which model or run will be right at this range so I try to look at averages but even then the picture can change, especially when focusing on one resort or a small area of alps. Just need another day or two to be confident about next thurs-friday levels, ie quantities and snowline
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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just a link to a page with webcams and weather of a bunch of ski resorts in europe, worth a look i guess. nothing more accurate than being there or seeing it live ish
https://www.snowwatcher.com
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Be great to get an update today by those with the skills. The BBC is predicting warm in the south of UK Christmas week which more often than not means warm in the Alps too. My first new year trip for many years am I going to be in t-shirt again third trip in a row during 'winter'?
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I'm away new years week in Les Arcs and this has been a snow based roller coaster. This time yesterday it looked like a perfect set up. Really not sure what to make of the change this morning. Looks pretty positive for fresh snow leading up to the trip but after that it looks a tad warm. Hoping that changes in the next few runs.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 16-12-24 9:58; edited 1 time in total
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i watch the webcams like daily, waiting for my ski/board holidays this season, so far looks pretty good, even the low resorts have snow
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I had many a warm Christmas and it’s never as bad as you think as sun is low angle not out for long so lower shaded slopes in trees don’t suffer much. It’s no where near as slushy as spring skiing
I’d say enjoy the sunshine and being able to sit outside at new year
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Frosty sunny start today, so t-shirts til thursday, then thermals until 24th, followed by more mild sunny weather, and then into year end....another drop setting up
Been a bit messy from the models trying to work out how to deal with the azores low joining the NW'ly flow mid week, some of those crazy good GFS charts were too good to be true, and I had a moment of panic last night  when the UKMO train left the little trough completely behind. Much better to have it join the low's to the north as a shortwave that drags down colder more energized flow to the alps. Anyway, looks like we'll get something inbetween those 2 extreme runs....high snowline now likely deeper into thurs evening, but then dropping very sharply overnight. Still never know just how fast the front will cross....always a risk that most of the ppn falls early rather than late....but most runs are still optimistic that at least half of the ppn will be snow to very low levels by Friday morning....600m?.... Above 2000 should be all snow.
Then as you can see from above ensembles, the 23rd has been growing in potential. Again not an easy one to predict as a lot of runs (hat tip GEM) keep modelling the trough too far north east....would still be good for eastern alps, but west has been in danger of missing out. Latest output has seen an overall correction back west a bit, still borderline in my view.....but good consensus on the means, and always good to have ECM looking best.
  
This second low, whereever it lands, will start colder....just need to keep an eye on how it finishes as the milder trend post xmas day is now showing up very consistently.
Day 10 means are as convincing as you can get at that range, so maybe 25-27th mild and dry. But some tentative signs of improvement beyond that as the euro high retreats back towards the atlantic. Albeit that's 2 weeks away. Maybe the long awaited favourable MJO signal starting to influence.
 
Morzine is often the barometer it seems for how things can go wrong, but these broad scale patterns generally affect all of the alps, some areas even worse than Morzine....hard to believe, but check out latest ECM temp anomalies for wednesday and then again on boxing day, 12C above average in the south. Could be wrong by 4-6 degrees I suppose, but still less than ideal. Mean temps forecasting more like +5C at 1500m for the second mild spell.
 
Anyway, plenty of snow in between these 2 lovely sunny spells.....no sign of much rain low down incredibly so far in December (well apart from this thurs), let's hope we continue to get lucky....get thru the anomalous mild days with plenty of good skiiing down to the valleys.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Mon 16-12-24 14:11; edited 1 time in total
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Thanks Polo - good report
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yep looks like that way, telling son who is in VT with Southampton uni (apologies in advance to all there!!), to get the skiing in and have a strategy for their last day for the snow, wind and visibility!
Monday after looks blowy too
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Poster: A snowHead
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Thanks @polo, off to Morzine and knew the risks, but maybe not too bad! Fingers crossed!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Holy Heatwave, Batman. 12C at the bottom of the ski runs in the Northern Alps but freezing in the valleys. It seems to have cost about 5cm snow depth today but probably just settlement and it won't be too costly over the week.
My mum in law is running around like a headless chicking talking about foehn eating all the snow but it seems to be more a south-west current swinging around to the north-west during Thursday and bringing in around 10-15cm of snow down to 600m, perhaps more in the Savoie.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Snow&skifan, out in 3 Vallées today, still cold in the shade and when the sun dropped late afternoon in my experience today.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Whats the chance this is a very slow moving high ? 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Sorry I'm new, which part of that link shows two feet of snow predicted?
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| Jamo wrote: |
Sorry I'm new, which part of that link shows two feet of snow predicted? |
Take each day’s median precipitation forecast, aggregate them, x 10, giving 60cm snow. After checking forecast temperatures throughout are subzero. It can snow above zero of course.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Renry, always a chance of that....and the shape is almost Omega which is hard to shift, but but but....changes afoot, more below
A word on the GFS....while it's well established that it is only the 3rd (at best) or more often 4th most accurate model, behind ECM, UKMO, GEM and now ECM AI also thereabouts. It's the volatility of it's output that isn't talked about much. None of the other top models have the tendency to swing about from one extreme to another in the 5-8 day range.
Latest example was yesterdays 12z...moving the 23rd alps flow about 1000 miles further east than all of the other models. And now today it's a 1000 miles back to the west. Much better for all of the alps.
And it's not just the Op run that's shifting so much, the entire ensemble pack as represented by the mean charts below have displayed the same wobble for the 23rd.
Here's yesterdays mean GFS 12z vs todays GFS 0z. Up to 50cm of snow for the west that it completely removed for 12hours, and has now reinstated.
 
So looking good almost across the board now.....here are the latest Op runs from 8 models I look at....only the last 2 (JMA and KMA) still have the low to the east. And while these are the worst performing models statistically, it still shows how it won't take much of a change for everything to slip eastwards. Also worth noting it seems to be a deeper low than the 20th, so the snow potential is not insignificant, and only 6 days away, so really close to being in the reliable frames.
       
Looking more at the post xmas mild spell. Oh btw I read the UK could be close to a new record high for the 25th, current record is 15.6C which has stood for over a hundred years (Devon 1920). I think it will fall short though.
The means anoms are solid high pressure still, linking up with atlantic possibly, and with mean temp anomalies of +8 across parts of the alps. But some recent runs show the 23rd low ending up over the med, so that would shift the block north and allow much cooler air in down the eastern flank, at least for the southern alps. It's the little adjustments in the orientation of the high that could swing temps by more than 10 degrees, but way too far for any detail.
Then for year end, way into FI now, these charts very unlikely to be accurate....but am just showing that the models that actually run that far are showing the possibility that this euro high won't last long, and it may retreat west by year end.
  
Two other drivers to support this potential outcome are the MJO moving into phase 7 at a decent amplitude and the trop vortex leaving Greenland for a move towards Scandi /Siberian side.
Changes seen comparing 25th Dec to 1-2 Jan from GFS mean ensemble, along with the fickle EC46 week 1 '25
  
Huge caveats at that range of course, and even then the euro highs are still there. But the key point is that Canada-Greenland will hopefully end up with stronger heights, allowing better chance of northerly flow into europe.
Strat winds however keep pushing back their expected slow down. Currently at record strength and staying that way into late Dec, before finally slackening off.....well that's the latest forecast anyway.
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| davidof wrote: |
Holy Heatwave, Batman. 12C at the bottom of the ski runs in the Northern Alps but freezing in the valleys. It seems to have cost about 5cm snow depth today but probably just settlement and it won't be too costly over the week.
My mum in law is running around like a headless chicking talking about foehn eating all the snow but it seems to be more a south-west current swinging around to the north-west during Thursday and bringing in around 10-15cm of snow down to 600m, perhaps more in the Savoie. |
Is it too optimistic to call that loss of snow depth "base formation for the season"?
I tend to believe that provide we don't get rain to wash away the cover, it isn't awful to get some freeze/thaw if it means a dense 50cm layer down over the pistes in December
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Polo
What's the point of keeping GFS in the review list if it's as flakey as you indicate? Shouldn't it just get ditched?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@philhitch, so many people use snowforecast as their default that I think it makes sense to keep it. If anything, it might reduce the number of WOW 2M FORECAST FRIDAY AFTER NEXT posts which are followed 2 weeks later by WHY DIDN'T IT SNOW AS PROMISED
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@philhitch, it’s a good model, top 3 or 4, and has unique abilities to spot certain day 10+ trends before the others. All models have their biases and issues, was just pointing out one of its flaws. No statistics available re. Volatility, I just feel it’s prone to larger wobbles than others in the key day 5-7 range, but you can’t dismiss it either.
And as above the fact that it feeds the majority of apps, it’s just advice to treat with caution and not despair if all the snow suddenly disappears. If the snow also disappears on YR or Bergfex then clearly it’s a more credible signal.
Plus it’s goes out further than more stable models like ECM and UKMO in particular, and updates twice as often. So maybe that’s part of it.
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
@philhitch, so many people use snowforecast as their default that I think it makes sense to keep it. If anything, it might reduce the number of WOW 2M FORECAST FRIDAY AFTER NEXT posts which are followed 2 weeks later by WHY DIDN'T IT SNOW AS PROMISED
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I'd agree with that. It's good for people just desperate for some simple prophecies to get a feel for the messy business which forecasting is. Snow-forecast and the like just take one of the possibilities from what is often a scramble of options with little coherence. One of the strengths of Chamonix meteo is that it indicates a "confidence" interval. And everyone needs it drumming into them constantly that one cannot often have high confidence in what a model predicts 7 days out.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Beginner question here- I've read alot about these "washouts" we've had the last several years around this time. GFS is typically what I check (I'm definitely aware of the volatility after watching the last few days so I'm taking it with a grain of salt) and it's showing 5.1 cm rain immediately followed by 27 cm snow on Dec 22-23 at base elevation of where I'm heading in Jan.
Would this constitute a washout like in recent years or does the new snow outweigh any losses from the rain in a situation like this?
From what I can tell this seems to be a much better December than in recent years if the forecasts hold up, but again I'm very much a beginner. And I appreciate all of the information on this forum, already feel like I've learned alot.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I used snow-forecast for possibly 15 years. They often forecast blizzards just around the corner, in long subzero spells at all levels, no matter the resort selected. Rarely did that pan out. Subjectively favourable forecasts for skiers/boarders for clickbait? Very user-friendly webpages an added attraction.
Then folk here and on netweather gave links to far more nuanced and science based websites. A mine of information.
On that theme, ecmwf now showing a big dump of snow Sunday 22/12 to Tuesday 24/12 with temperatures well below zero. Eastern Swiss Alps.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Snow&skifan, it’s the same with pretty much all the weather apps to be fair. I think their main problem is the exact numbers they use.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Rain is the new snow.
Heavy rain coming to the European Alps, from France to Austria, below ~1800m in the next 2-5 days.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Subjectively favourable forecasts for skiers/boarders for clickbait?
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No
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Dr John wrote: |
| @Snow&skifan, it’s the same with pretty much all the weather apps to be fair. I think their main problem is the exact numbers they use. |
Thank you. Anyone know the source utilised by snow-forecast for their European Alps forecasts 1 to 7 days?
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@Snow&skifan, I think Snowforecast uses the GFS operational run.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Wed 18-12-24 14:14; edited 1 time in total
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@Snow&skifan, I use a combo of meteoblue and YR for 1-7 days (hourly on the day useful and tend to be more or less accurate). Météo-France for long term, with a pinch of salt.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| jedster wrote: |
Is it too optimistic to call that loss of snow depth "base formation for the season"?
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within limits that is true. Remember the rain will be near zero temperature so doesn't have a lot of energy so a bit of rain is fine. Torrential tropical rain with the zero iso at 3500 meters preceeded by a snow gobbling foehn, not so much.
Better light rain than foehn anyway. I remember the foehn in Bavaria... my hypochondriac colleagues would be holding their heads in agony moaning about it giving them migraines. For me, it gave nice views of the Alps from 100km away in my office.
Forecast for the NFA for the next days looks ok but chilly
Thursday:
Humidity and cold will gain ground. The sky will quickly become overcast at all altitudes. The precipitation will come from the west in the morning, bringing sometimes heavy snow first at 1800m with a south-westerly wind, then 1100m in the evening with a westerly wind and 500m at midnight with a north-westerly wind due to the sudden cooling.
Friday:
This snow will still fall a little on Isère and Savoie, down to the plains in a stronger northerly wind. Very little snow in Isère in the afternoon. The biting cold will quickly subside at higher altitudes, but not on the plains. Above 2000m, we are expecting fine cold weather in the afternoon, but with a strong northerly wind.
Sunday:
Snow in mid mountains
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Wed 18-12-24 16:50; edited 1 time in total
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| Quote: |
Subjectively favourable forecasts for skiers/boarders for clickbait?
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As mentioned by others, it uses just the operational run. There is no conspiracy to deceive. Generally, the further away in time a prediction is, the less accurate it is, hence the sometimes wild predictions.
People get excited by big numbers which stick in their mind, setting them up for disappointment. What people forget are the times when the forecast isn't great, but the reality is better because the excitement of good conditions overrides a week old memory of the rubbish prediction.
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