 Poster: A snowHead
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yes....longer rangers always never commit to anomalies, they just say it's going to be "normal" a few weeks out.
all to play for
son's Uni trip on sat to VT is probably the best place to be.....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Several people have mentioned the wash-out that often happens just before Christmas, spoiling the Alpine festive period for skiers. If you look at the 1991-2020 mean temperature for this time of year for the Alps, it's interesting to see that there is indeed a spike covering the 21-26 December period, peaking around 23 December. On average, the atmospheric temperature has peaked at 3°C above the surrounding dates (pre-20th or post-26th).
Here it is for the western French Alps (Grenoble) - see the red line:
The same spike also appears in the climate data further east, for Salzburg and Trento for example (both 2-3°C above surrounding dates).
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| denfinella wrote: |
Several people have mentioned the wash-out that often happens just before Christmas, spoiling the Alpine festive period for skiers. If you look at the 1991-2020 mean temperature for this time of year for the Alps, it's interesting to see that there is indeed a spike covering the 21-26 December period, peaking around 23 December. On average, the atmospheric temperature has peaked at 3°C above the surrounding dates (pre-20th or post-26th).
Here it is for the western French Alps (Grenoble) - see the red line:
The same spike also appears in the climate data further east, for Salzburg and Trento for example (both 2-3°C above surrounding dates). |
Great post.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| denfinella wrote: |
Several people have mentioned the wash-out that often happens just before Christmas, spoiling the Alpine festive period for skiers. If you look at the 1991-2020 mean temperature for this time of year for the Alps, it's interesting to see that there is indeed a spike covering the 21-26 December period, peaking around 23 December. On average, the atmospheric temperature has peaked at 3°C above the surrounding dates (pre-20th or post-26th).
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Great analysis, are we blaming Santa for flying around the globe and affecting the winds?
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| Quote: |
are we blaming Santa for flying around the globe and affecting the winds
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No - certainly not.... - it's the methane from the Reindeer - too many mince pies........ not good for them!
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Surely CO2 emissions are cut cause no one has an open fire on Christmas eve?
Is this a new climatoligical norm we are observing? 30 years data required?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Ok so Saturday 21st in the NW alps will be a snowmageddon or T-shirt weather 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Let’s see what today’s rollercoaster brings will yesterday's Xmas cold back off ? probably .
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That doesnt sound good id expect val dosere to have lots more open than that after z50cm last wend and all the machines
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You know it makes sense.
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It's also nonsense, the Val website says 66/123 runs open. And most of those shut are on the extremes of the map - expect they'll open up as skier volumes pick up
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@michebiche, what's nonsense?
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Poster: A snowHead
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I e got to say as a newby the reference sites are all different to eafh other whether it is snow forecast or lifts open .shame their osnt one site that we can rely on for both
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@leggyblonde, the skiresort site - no idea if it tries to scrape from the resort websites or is updated manually but I doubt there's a single source which is accurate for all resorts
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Slight improvements overnight I think....models lowering the euro high and getting the low's across a bit quicker. Still seems a very quick breakdown of the block to me, but that's what they are showing. An often mentioned bias is that the computers can be overly progressive with low's (either too deep or too far east), and can also underestimate the resilience of a high block. But that's not always going to be the case, maybe other forces from the north like the arctic high and vortex lobe over scandi etc are lending a hand.
ECM's NH profile shows the expected change from today to day 8, with the day 8 anomly chart as well.
  
Classic woodpecker to christmas bunny shape shift from the tropospheric vortex. Can see the arctic high trying to split the vortex up.....with low's into the NE states and europe again 20th dec.
Quite a wavy but active jet stream over our side, so the snowline will start high and drop fast in general.
Checking the 3 mean anoms for Fri 20th, nice to see ECM now leading the way, GEM also good, so expect GFS (middle) to catch up later.
  
And the 3 ensemble graphs for NW alps all quite similar.....temps expected to drop sharply from +10C to below zero during 19-20th, question as ever is how fast will the cold air arrive. Then there will ilkely be another low soon after (22-23rd).
Getting far into the unreliable dates now, but nice to see the mean temps staying below zero, and a few clusters of ensembles trend colder up to xmas. But currently no way to be confident of that, just something to keep an eye on.
ECM GFS GEM
  
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@michebiche, I think the data is captured in the morning. The number of lifts look to generally fit with the number posted on the resort website. I think the issue with VDI is that it opens its lifts a bit later. Today the VDI website is saying 21 at 8:30 CET but they may open more from 9:00. will probably. The figure for kms of piste looks like a modelled estimate as some resorts only publish their number of runs open rather than kms open.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 13-12-24 8:43; edited 3 times in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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How much do you guys trust Snow-Forecast.com in here? There's 80cm+ on there for resorts across the Northern Alps between 19th-23rd it's making me want to drop everything and drive over there for Christmas!
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@Georgert, too far out and it runs on only one model , GFS , snow forecast will change again in an hour or so with the midday run . My opinion is that a consensus is building for some action ahead of Christmas Day and the day itself but could be quite a high rain/snow level to begin with , it’s still so far away .
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@Georgert, nah.
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Thanks @Le Grand Renard, a good thing to hear before booking the EuroTunnel...!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Georgert wrote: |
| How much do you guys trust Snow-Forecast.com in here? There's 80cm+ on there for resorts across the Northern Alps between 19th-23rd it's making me want to drop everything and drive over there for Christmas! |
Pie in the sky, I think they're on LSD most of the time with their wild optimism!
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@Peter S, maybe that's the issue - this morning that site is saying 20/85 lifts open, VDI site is saying 41/72! Hopefully someone in Tignes is looking for the 13 lifts they've misplaced...
20th looks promising but still some way out to know specifics 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| JDL65 wrote: |
| Georgert wrote: |
| How much do you guys trust Snow-Forecast.com in here? There's 80cm+ on there for resorts across the Northern Alps between 19th-23rd it's making me want to drop everything and drive over there for Christmas! |
Pie in the sky, I think they're on LSD most of the time with their wild optimism! |
I often wonder how much sponsorship or advertising may influence an "optimistic" forecast on sites that are not primarily meteo-based. I may be too cynical, but I think I see a trend across various sport and activities.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bit of a sandwich situation this weekend with the remnants of the med low heading NE tomorrow, so SE france will get the most with peak ppn probably somewhere inland between Grenoble and Montpellier, but most french alps also in with a shout. A bunch of models here, show it's going to be scattered showers further north, could be anything from 0 to 20cm. At least it will be cold enough for all ppn to be snow, with a sub 1200m FL (NW).
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/swisshd-eu/rhone-alpes/accumulated-precipitation/20241215-2200z.html
Then Sunday into Monday a cold front from the NW will be useful along the northern ridge, mostly Swiss and Austria.
Again a little patchy, but 10-30cm showing up
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/aus/austria/accumulated-precipitation/20241216-2200z.html
Then the long awaited heatwave mid week 17 and 18th expected to see +9C or even more at 1500m....ECM was ahead of the other 2 with calling the higher end of temps.
Looking at anoms for 20th again....GFS joined in, so decent consensus now across 100+ ensemble runs. If anything GFS has probably gone too far south with the low (that it didn't even see yesterday  )
  
And at day 10, the 23rd, ECM and GFS look really good....while GEM pushes everything too far NE
  
While the average ensemble temps still look good, they won't tell us any detail at this range about how fast the FL might fall. Or in which areas.
Just one example here from ECM 00z, thurs +10, Sat -4, but milder air is not far away to the north and south.
It will keep changing run to run and model to model for another few days, and even then it could be one of those borderline situations....ie the colder air might not cover all of the alps.
 
The second low, if it arrives around the 22-23rd, should be colder, less of an issue....but again that will depend on the pressure pattern we actually end up with.
Summary.....snow starts tomorrow, then it melts by wednesday, then snow maybe starting at 2000m on thurs, dropping to 1000m on Friday, and potential for more after.
But anything after wednesday is reckless speculation  Don't book or cancel anything just yet.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Fri 13-12-24 10:32; edited 1 time in total
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We're taking our mutt out with us and the vet needs a week's notice (today) so we've pulled the trigger. Looks snowy enough in the Morzine area to get at least *some* sliding done... with the wistful hope of some powder up high for the big day!
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You know it makes sense.
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Lot of British media outlets are saying cold and snow (midlands upwards) from around 22nd. So I'm banking on that and with it a cold Alps. 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Well they are going to be right some day....and if the media are relying on GFS alone then tomorrows headlines will be snowmageddon
GFS 12z goes off the charts, with the perfect synch-phase on the little heatwave trough to turn it into something catastraffic......I know, too much.
The apps that rely on GFS are going to show bigger numbers tonight (20th-22nd).
For balance, anyone following the pressure charts should also look at GEM 12z, which again leaves some of that low to the west and then highs build in quickly and basically cancels christmas (away from the east). Most other models are in between these scenarios, but UKMO is good, which is also a very good model.
So, we're getting into the high risk reward stage of the model outlook, where the computer simulations get tighter and the refresh button gets looser.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Fri 13-12-24 18:27; edited 2 times in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| polo wrote: |
Well they are going to be right some day....and if the media are relying on GFS alone then tomorrows headlines will be snowmageddon
GFS 12z goes off the charts, with the perfect synch-phase on the little heatwave trough to turn it into something catastraffic......I know, too much.
The apps that rely on GFS are going to show bigger numbers tonight (20th-22nd).
For balance, anyone following the pressure charts should also look at GEM 12z, which again leaves some of that low to the west and then highs build in quickly and basically cancels christmas (away from the east). Most other models are in between these scenarios, but UKMO is good, which is also a very good model.
So, we're getting into the high risk reward stage of the model outlook, where the computer simulations get tighter and the refresh button gets looser. |
By 'cancel', hopefully you just mean there's not going to be loads of fresh stuff? Still praying for something skiable, even if it's a bit slushy...
PS are you in Les Gets? Looked mighty wintery there when I checked the cameras!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Georgert, yeah I mean some models are milder and have less snow than the latest GFS 12z, for the west anyway…..but the overall trend is still improving in my view
Thin cover below 1800m in PdS, maybe <10cm base at 1500m, will see some snow tomorrow then some losses surely next week before the next likely snowy spell from 20th on. Can’t say more than it looks good for now but that the outlook can still swing either way in next few days.
ECM 12z stays within the expected range of options, warm to cold 20th, with a pocket of milder air behind, before another cold spell 22-23, very broadly
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That’s a cracking forecast for Xmas week. Will be cheering it on from Croydon!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@BobinCH, is that it baked in for Christmas?
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Happy valley used to be the spot back in the day!
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Chamonix Meteo called for 10 cm @ 1,000m today, and this time I think they might have got it spot on. Already knuckle deep and still drifting down lightly but steadily.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Well GFS 06z goes off again with the several days of snow output....it's certainly possible but not probable yet given other models aren't as good (shorter spells). It may turn out to be one of the best xmas run ups in a long time though, even without the GFS 'best case', as the overall pattern is still very good. Quite a low benchmark though given the last few years.
Below 1800m it is certainly looking like a rare pre xmas situation in France at least where we might have full coverage, decent base, and deep enough for some powder turns....even if it's not actually powdery, it would be enough to carve trenchs and generally bounce around.
Let's get the best stuff out of the way....fantasy charts from GFS here, divide by 2 at least, out to 24th
In the more probable camp we have ECM, ECM AI and UKMO on this link showing 50+cm ....again to the 24th
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/standard/france/accumulated-precipitation/20241224-1800z.html
Ensembles from ECM GFS GEM for the NW....GEM is still dragging its heels, high pressure building in quickly, rising temps around 22-24, and still lots of ppn, so not ideal for low levels....but the other 2 models stay much colder right up to 25th, and can see the cold cluster of ensembles is growing (-5C at 1500m).
  
Post xmas there is a trend now for high pressure to return, more settled maybe, a little milder.....the vortex setting up over Greenland tends to do that, but too far away, and hopefully will be well set up by then.
No major change on the mean anom charts for 20th and around the 23rd.....slight improvement from the GEM on 23rd (was too far NE y'day),,,,but still not as good as other 2. So I'd be cautious until good consensus across the 3.
Anyway, next Fri 20th is the main focus, 10 models here showing total ppn to Friday night....30-60cm approx range, with a few bigger peaks....most should fall below 1800m apart from the intial 10-20cm on thurs afternoon. FL could be below 1000m on friday so would make for tricky driving conditions. But those details will keep changing no doubt as it gets closer.
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/swiss-mrf/france/accumulated-precipitation/20241221-0000z.html
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FAQ
, still showing some dust on GFS for Trois Vallees, some runs going for a bit more than dust...operational run the most dust!!
