The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

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@denfinella, +2 in Chamonix maybe. Well that's what both my weather things are telling me! It is however precipitating heavily.

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We must have had a good 30cm or more in VT this afternoon. If not more. Stunning morning followed by some really heavy snow with a smidge of high winds. My son had had enough by two but I had an absolute ball in it.

Still coming down heavy now.. next few days will be epic for anyone coming here.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

20-40cm today and Sunday here in Meribel. Should be a fab opening week in the 3V. Skied just serviced. Season pass bought and off we got o hit the quiet early December slopes from Meribel to Courcheval, then VT the next day. Happy days everyone.

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@Skeeezo, @snowqueen50, enjoy! Only a dusting at Chamonix level but looking good a wee bit higher.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

In Austria it looks like the Dachstein area received the highest fresh snowfall levels. ( 50 cm ).

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So the early skiers and Uni weeks look like they’ve been saved with a mixture of real and artificial and now the attention draws to the peak Xmas and NY weeks now in the available time frame of some of the models , will it be cold and snowy or what has become recently the great Xmas washout we shall see , currently looking like a bit of both !

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After all it is free

The view in Meribel this morning

Something brewing for the weekend?

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not that i m seeing Thurs- Sat looks sunny in western alps

Mon16th -Weds 18th looks promising

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Summary....I don't have much good news to report, but there is time for change still.

Looking back at the dates mentioned (mean anomaly charts previous page).
13th....Iberian low brings milder air to most of alps, but largely dry.....NE Italy / SE Austria could get a top up Sat 14th

15th the north sea gap I was looking at has weakened / drifted east, allowing a very brief shallow NW flow again, so Sun might see a few flakes....but not a lot showing up on ensembles

Then the real drama / high risk scenario is showing up. As a background, from the NH profile, we have high pressure over the pole (-AO), and a large chunk of the vortex over Siberia side....both positives, but the Canada lobe is now back over Greenland, so this unfortunately is going to override the chances of deep cold. As the deep lows arrive to our north, they will be matched by strong highs over europe and south atlantic....it's a very mobile atlantic driven pattern as the northern arm of the jet fires up.

Re-visiting the 17-18th means, ECM GFS GEM, closer to consensus, but as feared, the whole pattern is too far west, leaving europe under a high, and milder air, but again largely dry. GEM stubbornly holding hope for a correction east, but long shot now.

Regarding temps, ECM worst at +4c above normal at 1500m, other 2 are closer to average.

The EC46 model was still looking good yesterday for week 16-23 overall, it will update in a few hours though....if it holds, then maybe we can infer early part will high pressure, latter part, will be NW'ly

Here are the 3 ensembles for NW alps

ECM first is pretty awful.....+5-6C around the 18th, will a slow path to anything cooler. The other 2 models are better with mean 1500m temp (top red line) hovering around the zero line.
Unfortunately ECM is the best model, so I won't expect anything good to happen until it changes.

Best case we get some small top ups in places this weekend, then it goes mild and dry. Worst case, nothing on weekend, then torrential rain to 2400m for the week up to xmas Toofy Grin

But you knew that. Like clockwork.

Seriously though, it's too far to panic....mobile pattern, changes can happen quickly.....am not talkling about snow magically appearing out of nowhere, just that the ECM might be wrong at that range.

@davidof.....yes an excellent call, happy to share wine if you are ever in the area Toofy Grin

. I've been shopping. Anyone looking for detailed resort level day 13 forecasts you know who to call.....@walterwhite

Ah yes the traditional Xmas wash out .

You know it makes sense.

@Le Grand Renard, foehn, where's the foehn?

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

@davidof, I’m sure there will be room somewhere over the holidays Smile

A snowHead

A snowHead

Less of the negativity ive been watching the charts for months 7 days in advance for val and its not been right once yet

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

@picnmix1974, that’s the fun in watching the charts!

To me it starts to lock in 3 days away from the date I feel.
No expert but really enjoy the posts on this thread. Really interesting and it’s good to watch the various runs pan out.

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My mes thinks im mental its like when u were looking for the football scores on teletext before sky and phones .its addictive .but now im at the panic stage with this negativity theirs enough to slo in val but wouldnt mind some snow for the kids

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@picnmix1974, d’Anniviers? Gardena? di Fassa? d’Herens?

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And just like that... the December (Christmas) snow has disappeared. Sad

" We seek him here, we seek him there, that dastardly December snow, we seek him everywhere..."
Smile

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Am I right in thinking that GFS and ECM seem to be showing very different outputs from the 15th onwards? (NW Alps). GFS looks a lot more palatable. Again I'm the most amateur of amateurs so looking forward to more informed opinions.

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@horgand, for which area/which forecast are you looking at?

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possibly a little sat/sun but further out next thursday looks possible, but miles away to have any certainty.......or where the LPN will be if it does come off

any this is only GFS run

https://www.meteoradar.co.uk/en-gb/country/fr#selectedLayer=forecastDays

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@horgand, the 00z gfs still shows a sniff of something this weekend ..

https://greghilton.co.uk/snow_forecast/gfsruns.php?select=tignes

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@kitenski, a dusting at most. Looks pretty dry for the next 10 days - get your wish list off to Santa for some (pre)Christmas snow

@michebiche, indeed all far away and no doubt will change every 6 hours in the coming days

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

For Val ECMWF model shows top up of this weekend of 5cm. 1 and 2 degrees and sunny at village on Mon / Tuesday. Then snow and colder temps Thursday-Sunday. Looks ok!? GFS 1-3 degrees and sunny next week.

A snowHead

Very warm in the French Alps from Monday? Going by ecmwf and wetterzentrale.de.

A snowHead

It wouldn’t be Christmas without a weather rollercoaster , it’s been the same in the French Alps for at least the last 5 Decembers .

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

It’s my understanding that sun doesn’t do much damage mid dec as it’s low in sky and not out for long plus low humidity helps. Overall I think the snow conditions will be decent on piste in the days before Christmas
Looking forward to my 5 day trip to chamonix middle of next week

I often find conditions much better when I get there than all the doomsters in the media suggest
Back in the day before we all checked forecasts obsessively it always worked out!

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@JDgoesskiing, it’s the foehn and rain that does the damage and that’s not forecast at the moment but judging how the forecasts are all over the place entirely possible , enjoy your trip you will have a ball .

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Its still early december, there has been a couple of snow storms to deposit a base and then some top up dustings over the past few days in most places, its cold so cannons are running. if you look at web cams, piste conditions look decent this early in the season. There is more snow (probably not that heavy) forecast in the weekend before xmas.

Yes it would be better if there had been 1m plus dumps everywhere, but that doesn't often happen in December. equally it would be a lot worse if everywhere was warm wet and muddy.

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Christmas spirit running low but staying on the hunt for positives.

Long rangers have updated their Dec forecast now. Big move from ECM compared to it's Nov finger-in-the-air attempt at forecasting December.
Nov base on the left, showed a large belt of above average high pressure into europe, but the new early Dec based calcs now show a euro trough, stronger mid atlantic ridge and a north sea gap.

Also somewhat evident on the multi-model blend, again Nov first, and then Dec update showing a stronger high to our west, albeit a little close for comfort to france, with the stubborn euro heights.

But what the long rangers give, the mid range EC46 takes away. Am losing the tenuous faith I had in this model though, having forecast a 16-23 dec euro low for a long time, it suddenly flipped in just 24 hrs to a much worse chart as the reliable timeframe arrived.

That blue blob over the azores is never good for the alps. Any area of low pressure in the Azores-Iberia area will lead to mild air and high pressure over europe. Can also interact with northern jet to bring a destructive SW'ly 2300m rainline.
From now on I will refer to it's technical name, a Catas-trough.

Models are varied on how to remove the little buggr. And it's going to be that interaction as it exits NE with deeper lows arriving from the NW that will literally make or break xmas. I know literally is often over-used, but at least this one is in print.
The means for thurs 19th show the attempt to phase and draw the low NE.....europe still very mild, as above, with third day of +6c at 1500m. But yes sun is at its weakest point of the year.

The Op runs everyone looks are going to take a few more days to get to grips with how this plays out. Some are showing snow as early as 20th, particularly eastern end, some don't get the memo and stay mild. Or even wet.
The means at day 10 (21st) show a glimmer of hope at this range....ECM GFS GEM....a hint of N or NE flow towards alps.

And a quick look at recent Op output for 20-21 dec.....all over the place but If I could pick out the worst and best, it would be GEM (first chart), the catastrough misses the train north and remains cut off to the west of france. And then the best chart is the last one from ECM AI, nice big organised north sea low and NW-SE jet into alps.

Summary, no idea what comes after the warm spell.....should clear up in a few days, 20-22nd focus for better or worse. Worth mentioning the air to our north is Arctic sourced, so if we can tap into it just a little bit, well it's Christmas.

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@polo,

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@polo, Thanks for the sum up , very complicated as is borne out by the every changing picture with each run Think I’ll clutch at straws for the mo , not that I’m out over Xmas

Thank Polo, I was in the middle of putting my thoughts together last night but couldn't help think that the longer rangers trend that precipitated by "thats it until the new year" was close to the mark despite being poo poo'd by some....however, I think no-one knows at the moment. More learned friends are perplexed at the models trying to resolve the

"Looks like it’s stretching out to the pac nw, thoughts?

"It looks the winter killer “stratospheric polar vortex” is going to get a push back in the final third of December"

"Remains to be seen if it will be anything of consequence but a weaker/warmer vortex would increase likelihood of colder/blocked patterns in mid lats.

"I usually feel pretty good about model stratospheric forecasts even out to two weeks but not right now. It’s chaos in the models right now

"Not only is the washing machine not broken but the #PolarVortex is in a hyper-cycle of "rinse, lather, repeat."

"Plain Language" Summary of one persons view who specializes in the polar vortex/Strat winds https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ . His last comment is the key one and similar to Polo.

"Two stretched polar vortices are in the books and a third and fourth are looking increasingly likely this week and then again heading into the holidays. They are bringing cold weather to the Eastern US and Asia (see Figures 3 & 9) but nothing impressive. In between an interlude of a strong polar vortex favors a milder pattern next week. Western Europe isn’t strongly influenced by stretched PVs, instead the weather is more dependent on Greenland high or low pressure. High pressure across Greenland this week will bring some cooler weather but overall looks like a mild pattern (see Figure 3). Longer term is it “rinse, lather, repeat” or more durable cold or mild weather?
"The jury is still out in my opinion."

my gut feel, is the same as it was before, with a bit of glimpses of cold pattern at the begging of Dec, was flat and mild with the Atlantic winning the battle with the northern blocking etc.....but who knows.....

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@KSH, glad someone appreciates the poetic license....surely up there with 'noztalgia' from last season.....but this one is a keeper, and an all too common spoiler

@Le Grand Renard, yep faster moving deeper troughs vs euro high, doesn't get much harder to forecast snow, but at least the cold is close by

@Ackie68, well the ECM long range is a good example of how much they can change a month out. And there is clear default built in to reflect the rising trend of highs and milder air. Very few longe range charts ever show colder than average months, as they seem to become less frequent. But trends change, anomalies happen, and sharp cold spells won't be picked up by a monthly average. ECM update is certainly a positive for the last third of Dec though.

Strat winds look to peak around 20th dec on latest ECM charts, and start to fall back towards average by year end. So far they haven't had an impact on the trop as far as I can tell, but coupling is seen now in the near term 15-22nd, with Greenland-Scandi lows, and higher speeds low down. Hard to say how long that lasts....it happens every year. Usual route out if they do lock up would be an SSW or other strong warming higher up, but even then it's always hard to prove a link to the NH trop pattern, never mind impact on somewhere as tiny as the alps. I find it interesting though.

So we have 2 shots at snow usually, the more typical is NW flow from east atlantic ridge, no blocking required, and most of the heavy falls arrive this way.
While northern blocking around greenland pulls down much colder air, but shuts off the atlantic flow. Best quality snow though. And then Scandi blocking is drier and even colder....but can evolve to undercut etc. Anyway that's my understanding. Very little chance of northern blocking as things stand....so relying on the east atlantic to sharpen up pre xmas. Oh yeah the MJO is making slow progress into phase 6....if it gets there it normally helps with northern blocking, but a few weeks away at least.

Help!!

The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

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