This SW flow has been on the cards for a while. Can see the pressure measurements and forecasts here, stronger on the western end, but all 3 areas meet the foehn threshold
Hard to get excited about early Dec at the moment, still some key differences a week out around month end to resolve. ...GFS (last below) will probably catch up with the other 2 soon, as ECM and GEM are almost identical with the pressure anomaly pattern.
Either way most of the alps still stuck under a high, with some mid lattitude blocking to the north, so a pool of colder air will advect into the eastern end.
1500m temp anomalies show the west-east split
Some signs we could head into a typical (for time of year) more mobile atlantic driven westerly flow early Dec. So +NAO, west to south west winds and we would then need to get lucky with any brief iberian highs that might turn the flow more to the NW and lower the FL. All speculation for now, as no sign of any deeper cold set up yet.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
timlongs wrote:
@davidof, not a breath of wind in Bourg - normally a foehn rips through here.
Dunno if it's a foehn wind, but this morning in SW France (65,31,32 depts), the temperature has shot up from 10 to 25C, with hot blustery winds coming from the SE.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Foehn is the Ghibli of Libya and the Zonda of the Andes. Just read that.
It’s always a mountain feature, where warm air hitting the windward side ends up even warmer on the leeward side, due to losing its moisture before reaching the peak. Not sure if it’s always associated with very strong winds as it’s measured by pressure differential (which does increase the wind speed), but well known as a snow-eater.
Looking ahead I think t+180hrs, or around 1-2 dec is decision time on whether the euro block weakens or reinforces, 50/50 on latest runs
After all it is free
After all it is free
It felt like there was a patio heater or similar switched on in Hertfordshire during storm Bert at the weekend.
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Whilst looking at the windy forecast today I discovered that they have now added winter sports overlays which are actually quite good.
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polo wrote:
Foehn is the Ghibli of Libya and the Zonda of the Andes. Just read that.
It’s always a mountain feature, where warm air hitting the windward side ends up even warmer on the leeward side, due to losing its moisture before reaching the peak. Not sure if it’s always associated with very strong winds as it’s measured by pressure differential (which does increase the wind speed), but well known as a snow-eater.
I take your Snow eater and raise you: Huayrapuca! Its other name is The Zonda, in Argie (close to the Andes can be devastating usually provoking bush fires and ravaging crops on the Pampas). Local tribes call it Huayrapuca, or the “witches' wind”, because when it roars the sun appears brown (dust) and farms get destroyed, eg July 2023 an event in the valleys of Mendoza and San Juan ( vineyard country) Wind gusts > 150 KM/H, TEMPERATURE JUMP : 10°C IN 1 HOUR, relative humidity < 5% for 9 HOURS, event lasted 11hrs with 2 dead. Speeds normally 40km/4 but can get up to 150km/h. Can bring the temps early spring upto 40degs often followed by a cold front bringing temps below freezing bringing with it severe frost risk on emerging soft delicate buds.......off topic alert.....but shows the devastating nature of these mountainous winds around the world. I think Foehn is fairly timid in comparison but has same atmospheric conditions as its origin.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@Ackie68, hmmm mountains have a lot to answer for when it comes to the messing with the weather
Are you au fait with mountain torque and frictional torque in terms of long wave forcing? I've only scratched the surface, but certain large mountain ranges impact the jetstream and can remove westerly momemtum or energy from the earths spin, transferring it into the atmosphere.....which is then associated with large blocks of high pressure regressing westwards against the tide so to speak., eg from europe out into the atlantic....but not sure if I fully get it
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
polo wrote:
Are you au fait with mountain torque and frictional torque in terms of long wave forcing?
eerrrr no, sorry
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Ackie68, it’s one of those wide scale teleconnections that I’ve seen a few pros and enthusiasts refer to. I read it’s heading the right way now so might help the high block shifting west. But you’d think the models would have already factored it in.
Not a lot of other positives to lean on at the moment, we don’t want a prolonged +NAO setting up, with the strat pv clearly firing up.
12z out now seem to be keeping the door open around 2 dec from the NW
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
outlook not looking positive for the next couple of weeks in the French Northern Alps. Perhaps some snow tonight - 10cm? and perhaps some snow/rain Thursday then we seem to be moving towards 10 days of anticyclonic weather. Time to get the mountain bike back out I think.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
davidof wrote:
outlook not looking positive for the next couple of weeks in the French Northern Alps. Perhaps some snow tonight - 10cm? and perhaps some snow/rain Thursday then we seem to be moving towards 10 days of anticyclonic weather. Time to get the mountain bike back out I think.
My worry is my thoughts some time ago could prevail
Ackie68 wrote:
Snow&skifan wrote:
Ackie68 wrote:
Climatological norm is my hope rather than xs warmth, with that mean dropping...not expecting the extreme cold pattern to prevail
Based on a scientific insight on the current situation, or a layman's mental conditioning from recent mild winters?
Sorry my post may have confused, I was talking specifically about post current cold plunge and snow next week. I'm hoping that the Azores doesn't suck in warm air and high pressure towards end Nov into Dec. I thought I could detect a bit of a cooling signal but we think it maybe climatological norm as we go into Dec rather than a big cold pattern. I suspect that the I wasn't commenting about a longer term view for the season....but the long range models I have seen running up to Xmas are for high pressure and warm air to return to southern Europe.
All very far off, this massive dump down to low levels could be it until Jan..... But there could be changes in the models once they get their heads round the impact of next week....but looking at at the 12z this eve looking warm again after the 24ish
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
About 10cm > 1800 m.
A bit more on Thursday then perhaps more wintry weather from around the 8/9th December
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
To answer Pam's question about resorts only snowmaking when they think it will stick around, the view at 1450 meters today
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
About 10cm > 1800 m.
A bit more on Thursday then perhaps more wintry weather from around the 8/9th December
Yes, could even come as early as 5th. The ECM midnight has the colder air/lower pressure sinking into the alps from the NE around this time. as the high over UK moves a bit westwards and up to Iceland with the isobars bring in winds more from the north. More unsettled/colder signal for eastern Europe, western alps on the margin, a low pressure over Poland...
@davidof, that looked a pretty thin cosmetic layer of snow, and it's still not even early season yet!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Looks like we have more of the rollercoaster of delight over the next few weeks judging on the long range models , should be fun no doubt our pros will be adding more details in time .
And yes we have a change of user name after all these years
After all it is free
After all it is free
I was just about to get my mountain bike serviced and cancel the heating oil delivery until at least January
There are a lot of drivers behind the long range forecasts that would favour a mild winter. We are near solar max, about year 5 of the 11 year cycle, so the analogs suggest low chance of high lattitude blocking. The QBO is also westerly, these high level winds above the equator flip direction more or less every 12-18 months....and this winter is westerly, which will assist with a strong polar vortex (which is happening now, very strong winds above). The MJO phase isn't set to be favourable for another 2-3 weeks, while current forecasts show it's got a low amplitude signal, so it might not have any impact on europe. La Nina is apparently acting all Nino like, and in any case it looks to be a weak version either way. The oceans are warm, the arctic sea ice is stalling, and there's a wasp in the kitchen.
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yep, La Nina looks like its weakening too, from a weak base especially in the central section of the pacific. there is however, cooling of the northern pacific PDO....need to have a think about that one.
Only positive for the near term is the raising of heights on the 12z ECM from yesterday....I know it's run by run..... up towards Iceland and Greenland around 2nd week of Dec possibly bring cold to the alps and slightly unsettled.
QBO certainly westerly, for the remainder of the winter with the Easterly QBO descending starting around May/early summer time. However, Cohen still thinks the blocking/PV fight isn't over despite the strengthening Westerly QBO.
....and there's a rat in my kitchen........
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@Le Grand Renard, is that you Rob? Fantastic Mr. Mackley
For me 2nd-3rd Dec is the point where lot's of runs were previously not allowing much atlantic in from the NW, and then not connecting with that cut off low to the SE. Leaving europe under a large Iberian to Scandi block, +NAO, so dry and mild, and at times wet and mild. It still might happen, but if we get enough euro weakening to set in, then you'll gradually lower the FL as more mobile flow digs into europe on a NW-SE track and the high retreats back towards the Azores / east atlantic where we need it. Might be 5th, 8th, whenever....too far for me to say.
Here are the 3 mean anomalies for 3rd Dec....t+168hrs, still quite a few differences, GEM (middle) is best.....but can see the gap forming in the euro block on the first 2. GFS (last) is literally always last to catch up. Will be there tomorrow with Iceland high.
But we still have the overall L shaped isobars to our north, that have been forecast by these anomaly charts for over a week now....ie any proper cold air will reach the UK but then get's deflected east due to high pressure being too strong over southern europe.
It's very close to a great set up....atlantic ridge, scandi low.....really need to lose the SE euro heights.
Summary.....a more mobile weather pattern is setting in early Dec, which will hopefully weaken the euro high gradually.....might start with a high FL.
And have you seen the latest UK Met Office seasonal forecast? 5% chance of cold. Three times more likely than normal to see windy wet and mild. Ok. lets see.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@polo, Qui , when I started all these years ago I never grasped the concept of Usernames , at last I have
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
polo wrote:
We are near solar max, about year 5 of the 11 year cycle, so the analogs suggest low chance of high lattitude blocking.
That's interesting as IIRC the past 5 winters have been far from "Classic"
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@kitenski, well the theory is there are better chances of high lat blocking, ie -AO signal from high pressure in the arctic circle, in the years around the solar minimum which was Dec '19. So winters of 2017-21. I'd have to go back and check. So -AO is something we might have relatively less of in the winters around solar max (now), but it could still play a big role regardless. As usual though it's just one of many factors and theories, and while a good -AO phase doesn't guarantee a good winter for the alps, it certainly helps.
Gav's Weather Vids (youtube) did a lot of research on this.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@GavsWeatherVids - that will be "Shryan" and his solar tracker and Richard's sunspotless days tracker?
Gav is a legend in our house....especially his Glastonbury forecasts!
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Ackie68, haha, yeah I haven't watched them for a few years, but he's a character alright....am sure each vid could be done in 5 mins instead of 45....but where's the fun in that.
12z good.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
polo wrote:
@Ackie68, haha, yeah I haven't watched them for a few years, but he's a character alright....am sure each vid could be done in 5 mins instead of 45....but where's the fun in that
"well well my friends, thank you, thank you, thank you so much everybody.....!, and thank your Shryan..."
and for the rest of the readers http://youtube.com/v/ywHn1DoXAOc check out Gav's Autumn forecast, he doesn't really do Europe, but does a weekly extended forecast for Europe looking at models. His main focus is UK but he brings in all the macro inputs discussed elsewhere above, all the models and theories, drivers etc of western Europe weather....he is a "character and my fast forward button is often used.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I made it to about 20 seconds in.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
IanTr wrote:
I made it to about 20 seconds in.
Fast forward ....but seriously....if one does want to persist and understand the "geek" stuff that may appear here, and is of interest, he does cover it all in the longer range views. but agree, not everybody's glass of Glühwein
His conclusion is that the trend is mild and Atlantic low driven pattern
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Overnight reality check....a few more models have swung back to poor outcomes around 2-3rd, especially UKMO which looked great yesterday. It's still 50/50 on whether we get enough energy over the ridge, that can head SE and weaken the euro high. As mentioned often though, models in general tend to underestimate the resilience of high pressure blocks, so we are running out of time.
Worst case there's just a brief dip of colder air into UK / northern france around the 3rd Dec, then it stalls and all the energy coming off the atlantic is going to flatten the ridge into europe, reinforcing the block. Examples here from latest GEM and JMA models for 5-6th. Problem with this pattern is it could last over a week...hard to see cold emerging later unless from the NE.
In the better looking camp we have latest ECM, GFS and KMA (south korean model). Just a little more disruption 2-3rd dec makes for better inroads SE.
And it helps that there is some very cold air to our far north (-20c at 850hpa, last chart below), so even if we can lower pressure back to nuetral (green), it will be cold enough for sub 1800m FL in the NW.
But again looking out to the 6th even these models don't inspire confidence for a prolonged spell. The mean anomaly charts are similar, showing the euro high largely in tact.
Too far for any reliability, but that is the trend for now. Further into Dec (8-10th) there are signs of improvement but obviously even less reliable.
Looking at webcams of Hochgurgl and Obergurgl, it's sunny, the pistes look amazing and are fairly quiet.
November skiing, I'm envious
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
polo wrote:
Further into Dec (8-10th) there are signs of improvement but obviously even less reliable.
what did I tell you
After all it is free
After all it is free
@davidof, medals can only be awarded post measurement, about 11-12 days time, but I should probably start engraving it now. Do you have a range of snow depths, northern french?
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Some uk media outlets suggesting a 411 mile snow storm in uk around 7th December. Is this in any model or just hopes and dreams?
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
But there could be changes in the models once they get their heads round the impact of next week....but looking at at the 12z this eve 
looking warm again after the 24ish
