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The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Any suggestions in Austria for this upcoming Monday?

Trying to ski in some pow (aren’t we all Very Happy )

Currently looking at resorts near Salzburg!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Tubby1147, The forecast is for a wet / snowy weekend, so many places should be good on Monday. Given the recent summer like weather many of the lower spots have been getting very thin so maybe head somewhere highish that will still have a good base. Obertauern might be a good option.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Are North Western Alps (Zermatt, Tignes, Val Thorens) done this year? A few days ago, there was a hope for the great spring top-up this weekend, but now it seems that all the snow has gone. What happened and is there a chance for weather to change?

I have booked Zermatt from 3.4. to 6.4. and I would like to have some fresh snow...Very Happy
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Quote:


Are North Western Alps (Zermatt, Tignes, Val Thorens) done this year?


@matejp, There's still 6 weeks of the season to go!

Quote:

is there a chance for weather to change?


Yes, if you read the previous page snowHead
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sean1967 wrote:
It's a rollercoaster trying to decide where to go. Yesterday the Pyrenees were looking great for next week and now it's looking very warm indeed...

High France still looking good and now Austria has come into play.....


Austria at present I'd say
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@matejp, Tignes was impeccable on piste today. Still hoping for 10cm over Saturday.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@chocksaway: I know that conditions on piste are excellent at the moment. I was hoping for some "janvril" powder...
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@matejp, it was in the forecast on Sunday but it is not at the moment. It could all change again beyond 5 days. Yr.no is still more bullish than the other forecasts.
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YR.NO still hasn't updated for me since Monday, so unless i have a local browser issue it's possibly stuck and out of date? All the latest runs are a long way east, no snow in the west after saturday night in my view, and then it's going to warm up next week....so a pretty short window.

It was looking better in the west and south a few days ago....but dems the breaks, sunny and warm after the brief top up. Life can be so cruel. But April still in the game.
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Heading to Engelberg tomorrow, Bergfex says 58cm, YR (working for me) says 95 snowHead Hopefully not a total whiteout..
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Head high next week eg VT, Hochgurgl, Zermatt.

Other places, even Zurs, Obertauern and Ischgl are forecast by yr.no to be warm on some days next week, after cooler weather and precipitation this weekend.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Early April starts to look like ... early April ... in the charts (particularly for the NW Alps). Dry with the ISO hovering at the 2,500 meter mark. Shades and Aperol time.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I took a screen shot of YR for PdS (valley level) yesterday morning, 1st pic - suspecting it was 2-3 days out of date / not updating.
Second pic is this morning, no 28cm sun-mon, and 5 to 10 degrees warmer than previous......as the pattern had long shifted east. Mondays high has actually gone up by 11 degrees rolling eyes
Poor show from ECM, and not helped by apparent YR stalling.




Some very bright colours on the snow charts along north ridge from swiss-austria....50-100cm peaks
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/swiss-mrf/austria/accumulated-precipitation/20250401-2100z.html

Looking beyond the warm up, heres a selection of the 00z Op runs that probably won't happen, being over a week away......while the alps would still be relatively dry, the pattern is towards northern blocking, meridonal (wobbly) jet stream....with some serious cold lurking to the NE. Wouldn't take much of a shift west to become more interesting. Anyway, far away for now, should be a good weekend for most

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
As always, chapeau for your eloquence and optimism @polo ...

I think the issue will be that the ground is now becoming excessively warm for any new snow to bond + settle properly (other than on high NW-facing aspects).
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@franga, for us skiers at this time of year the snow that matters is snow that lands on existing snow.

Recovering earth and grass to a skiable extent is, as you say, unlikely to last.

Adding to existing snow is another matter.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@franga, cheers, yeah any low lying fresh snow won't last long under +10c....although snowline should be down to 1200m here sat-sunday

And the east end could see a deeper low base hold up longer as it's not impossible that they stay cold into week 2.

I intend to slide hard for a solid 2 hours and then get back to gardening. The only base I'm building is full body melanin Cool .
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
A great weekend is coming up, but am interested in the following weekend too.....so at that range you'd look for agreement across the main 3 ensembles available, being ECM GFS and GEM output. I wish UKMO and AIFS had comparable ensemble data as they are in the top 3-4 for Op run accuracy. Always good to have them on board.

Anyway, picking out Sat 5th April lunch time as a reference, 9 days out from t0, good agreement on the 12z means for high pressure heading NW and cold to E/NE. Think it's an interesting one to focus on. You'd don't always get that level of cross model agreement at day 9, and it's a pretty big leap from where early April is going.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looks like we’ll be needing bikinis and sun cream for the foreseeable in the French Alps!! Confused
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Red out east on wepowder snow maps with up to a meter and low temps until Wed
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EvieTee wrote:
Looks like we’ll be needing bikinis and sun cream for the foreseeable in the French Alps!! Confused


As long as it's not umbrella's, then I'd take that to be honest
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Handy Turnip wrote:
EvieTee wrote:
Looks like we’ll be needing bikinis and sun cream for the foreseeable in the French Alps!! Confused


As long as it's not umbrella's, then I'd take that to be honest

You are absolutely right!! Cool
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8611 wrote:
Red out east on wepowder snow maps with up to a meter and low temps until Wed

That’s not helping NehNeh NehNeh
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A bit of snow inbound for austria (northern alps, eastern end) and lots of rain in lowlands too. Monday looks stand out day at the moment with heavy snow and the colder temps, potentially snow to valleys.

https://www.bergfex.at/sommer/altenmarkt-zauchensee/wetter/berg/
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EvieTee wrote:
8611 wrote:
Red out east on wepowder snow maps with up to a meter and low temps until Wed

That’s not helping NehNeh NehNeh


Laughing - to be fair, skiing is just fun and there will be many who will prefer the sun to the encumbrance of the low viz bringing the snow
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https://wepowder.com/en/weblog/2025/03/28/pa8-a-lot-of-snow-for-austria

BOOM!

Its a pity as I've always wanted to ski Zauchensee and surrounds and I'd say you'd get good value accommodation at the mo, but I am alas tied up in work.

RedwhiteandFlachau will hopefully get a chance to enjoy it!
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Snowing to 1400m at the moment here, not expecting much more than cosmetic dribble, although at least one short term model (WRF) suggests it could get a little heavier later in the day. It is outrageous that my PdS season pass covers every alpine country except Austria.

Some interesting output still into April, although little agreement away from a uk high, if it doesn’t sink we’ll get colder air from the east/ otherwise staying mild. Some models show the high just far enough NW to bring down decent cold and snow again next weekend for Austria. Fuming. Toofy Grin
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@polo,
Are you in PDS at the moment?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@EvieTee, yeah, arrived 14 years ago
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
How lovely!!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Snow to 1200m in Engelberg - Bergfex on the money as usual. The tourists going up the Rotair won’t have much to see up there!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@EvieTee, most of the time it is, hard place to leave.....not lovely today though, terrible viz, windy and snow getting wetter.....hoping for better this evening, but either way tomorrow should be much more pleasant

ECM ensembles show the wide spread of options from next weekend on.....and what appears to be a cosmic hole on the 10th with deeply negative snow values Very Happy
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polo wrote:
@EvieTee, most of the time it is, hard place to leave.....not lovely today though, terrible viz, windy and snow getting wetter.....hoping for better this evening, but either way tomorrow should be much more pleasant

ECM ensembles show the wide spread of options from next weekend on.....and what appears to be a cosmic hole on the 10th with deeply negative snow values Very Happy


What the heck is going on there?!
It’s my 50th birthday on the 10th. Going to be in Tignes. Maybe something amazing will happen Laughing
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No changes so far re. next Sat, all 3 mean charts still similar, cold air staying largely to the east



Been reading UK has had one of the driest sunniest Marchs in a while, very different to last year, and no end in sight.....while netweather.tv are saying 1795 and 1893 are still by far the driest UK springs on record. Unfortunately for the alps in general, azores low - iceland high is mild and dry for NW europe.

From weatheriscool.com, looking at the winds down thru the strat layers.... there are tentative signs that these slow SSW winds (blue shading) may reach our levels (bottom of chart) 2nd week of april. At this stage it's probably just the normal final strat warming (albeit set off rather suddenly a few weeks ago), as the winter polar vortex winds down naturally.



it's just one GFS run.....but adds to the potential for a proper cold spell. Although given the season we've had, I'd be shocked if the near permanent azores low didn't again ruin any good set up from the north.....Portugal has been battered enough, let's hope it was just a weirdly persistent 4 month anomaly.

Like this example just out from ECM 12z for April 10th
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@polo, it's still a week or so away, but snowforecast.com seems to be indicating a bit of wet week in the french Alps from the 6th April. Is that what you're seeing too?
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@Handy Turnip, might have been a rogue run, but no, not seeing much ppn on the charts for France.

We’ll be stuck under an omega shaped blocking high next week, so it’s a battle to see if the south atlantic low or the scandi low can make inroads. I’d much prefer to see the high shift west and get some cold air and snow down from the north sea / scandi side, but only the eastern end seems to be in with a slim chance at the moment. As we’re talking over a week away it will hopefully change, but not a lot to go on right now.

Here are a few of the more interesting overnight charts for next Sunday (no point showing the other mild and even drier ones wink )…..that cold pool to the east is 8-12c below norm, but not reaching France or carrying much snow as things stand

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Omega... stark temperature division on UKMO 12z next weekend 1500m, some +8 to the west and -8 to east / NE. Other models less severe, but the general pattern is looking hard to shift.

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ECM 12z for comparison…..further west next weekend. So none the wiser where this mild v cold boundary will end up.

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polo wrote:
@Handy Turnip, might have been a rogue run, but no, not seeing much ppn on the charts for France.


Cheers @polo, think I've got pre holiday paranoia - thought I'd got over that years ago but rain on the chart must have spooked me!
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@Handy Turnip, I usually get worked up at the start of the season and then when friends or family are visiting, but always works out. Might have to stay high and have early finishes next week, with wall to wall sunshine and the longer evenings now.

The general pattern for next weekend has been very consistently modeled....hardly any variance in the output on a broad scale, only question is how far west does the cold pool extend. My guess is somewhere over Switzerland....with snow confined to the eastern end.

Detail varies across the models, but general NH view is something like what GEM is showing....fragmented vortex, jet steam all over the shop, cold for NE US/Canada, eastern Europe and the far east.
While western alps and UK are stuck under a ridge of high pressure.



So while it's hard to nail down the boundary of cold air from the NE for the weekend, there is also scope in the output beyond that...does the cold keep pushing SW into France, or will there be another reload from the NE after that.... not impossible

Latest UKMO for Sunday below....each model is slighlty different, eg AIFS is further east with the cold....just broad pattern at this range
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@polo thank you for your contributions as the season draws to a close
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