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The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
For 05 Hautes Alpes - Sahara Sand to mess the snow-pack up - just that it creates a layer that does not help for Spring snow

SAHARA SAND AND RAINY EPISODE ON THE PROGRAM:
Starting today, the high tide has turned south.
In a first time, it will bring sand from the Sahara from tomorrow before a peak on Friday. The sky will then be ochre/yellow.
In a second time we will see rainfall return. They'll return Friday night into Saturday through the southwest.
After a calm Saturday morning, new showers will affect us Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.
More scattered showers will affect us on Sunday.
By Sunday, it will fall:
- 30 to 50 mm on the south and west 2/3 of the department (Pays du Buëch, Rosanais, Gapençais, Dévoluy, Champsaur, Valgaudemar, Écrins)
- 15 to 25 mm elsewhere
Snow will fall in abundance in the mountains from 2000m then 1800m and up to 1200m at the end of the episode.
It will fall above 1800m 15 to 35cm.
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Flew back to Munich yesterday along the northern edge of the alps. Beautiful day. Below about 1200m no snow but above the tree line there appeared to be plenty with white covered peaks all the way to the horizon. Some of the areas on the northern edge like Kleinwalstertal (Obertsdorf / Mittelberg) looked very green. There was a lonely white line down through the trees which was a tiny place, Bad Kohlgrub just north of Oberammergau on the last hill in the mountains. Basically anyone planning skiing in the eastern alps for the remaining part of the season needs to go high.
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I'm heading to the Montafon valley on Saturday. Everything seems to be open with loads of snow above 1800 metres. Bergfex is showing colder conditions from Sunday with some small top ups of snow over the early part of next week. There appears to be only 2 lifts closed today so quite encouraging for a bit of an iffy season. We were in Andermatt last week and had loads of snow albeit some poor viz after 3 bluebird days. This week has been a catch up with work at home, we've had enough already. Laughing
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Weathercam wrote:
For 05 Hautes Alpes - Sahara Sand


Yes all over the Alps and up to the UK. It must be a sign to stop skiing and head to the beach. After the sand gets in snow rarely settles much on top and you end up skiing on sandpaper for the rest of the season.
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@Snowbandit56, My experience this season (Arlberg so around the corner from Montafon) has been good conditions on piste even down to valley level. Off piste pretty variable. Though the last visit was two weekends ago so might have changed a bit since then. Off again tomorrow, given the forecast was wondering if should hire water skis rather than all mountain Toofy Grin
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davidof wrote:
Weathercam wrote:
For 05 Hautes Alpes - Sahara Sand


Yes all over the Alps and up to the UK. It must be a sign to stop skiing and head to the beach. After the sand gets in snow rarely settles much on top and you end up skiing on sandpaper for the rest of the season.
Another great function on Windy allows you to see the Sahara dust real-time/forecast
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
davidof wrote:
Weathercam wrote:
For 05 Hautes Alpes - Sahara Sand


Yes all over the Alps and up to the UK. It must be a sign to stop skiing and head to the beach. After the sand gets in snow rarely settles much on top and you end up skiing on sandpaper for the rest of the season.


But you can leave some really bizarre tracks in the snow Laughing

The biggest issue we find is that it fecks the snow freeze-melt cycle up.


geoffers wrote:
...Another great function on Windy allows you to see the Sahara dust real-time/forecast


That's great, took me a few minutes to find it Laughing
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
For 'dust spotting' the source of such forecasts is here:
https://dust.aemet.es/products/daily-dust-products?tab=forecast&var=aod&model=median&date=20250320&view=light&step=39

Doesn't look too bad this time.
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chocksaway wrote:
For 'dust spotting' the source of such forecasts is here:
https://dust.aemet.es/products/daily-dust-products?tab=forecast&var=aod&model=median&date=20250320&view=light&step=39

Doesn't look too bad this time.

Great, thanks!
It seems to have just arrived at the Alpes today and be moving east at the end of the day, is that correct?

I remember going to St. Moritz at the end of March 2022 (right after the Sahara sand had come) and it was really odd, it was clearly yellow off piste, I'd never seen that. Though I think in Spanish resorts it was even worse. Luckily it snowed a few days later and things went back to normal. Hope we don't get the same this year.
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@Gustavo the Gaper, the problem is, if you don't get a lot of snow it just melts back down to the sand layer really quick and you end up with an early thaw due to the albedo

Plus potential issue with avalanches
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Fingers crossed the sand is not as a year ago. I did not enjoy the brown slopes in Serre Che after the Saharan storms.

@davidof could you elaborate on sand / avalanche interactions? Is sandy snow more avalanche prone (i guess it may not bond as well?)
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
wimpytwo wrote:

@davidof could you elaborate on sand / avalanche interactions? Is sandy snow more avalanche prone (i guess it may not bond as well?)


it is controversial but it is not a bonding question but I think it can create a temperature gradient (like a crust) and you then get a weak layer forming due to this. Basically anything that makes the snowpack less homogeneous can lead to issues. That's what I've observed but I've found some research which appears to say pretty much the same:



https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/1755/2023/tc-17-1755-2023.pdf
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Thank you! Really interesting. And of course the answer is "it's complicated". We wouldn't want avoiding avalanches to get too easy! E.g. this line being super definitive: 'the impact of Saharan dust deposition on snowpack stability can be either neutral, positive or negative, depending on the topographical, snow and meteorological conditions'.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
wimpytwo wrote:
Thank you! Really interesting. And of course the answer is "it's complicated".


Yes, I almost used that phrase myself.
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Considering a last minute trip to either Ischgl or Cervinia. Where would be the best place to go, considering the foehn and sand dust? Kind of want to explore Ischgl, but concerned about the heat. Snow does seem to be in the forecast, but dunno how certain it is? Smile
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
Where would be the best place to go
Onthebeach.com wink - well according to @Weathercam!

Only kidding of course - I'm off to GVA next Wed (ski location in France, to be determined Very Happy)
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Like I said you can make some interesting tracks.

After the sand......



And then fresh snow on top of the sand.....



But like I said it can be a real PITA for spring-snow transformation as you can see Laughing

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The sand, of course, are suspended particles and it is not good for the lungs either. Some of it is radioactive due to French nuclear testing in the 1950s.
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@davidof, looking at the Windy prediction, I think we might escape the worst of it, so I'll put my lead suit away Laughing

Have to say that in the last few days, I've skied some of the sweetest Spring snow, super smooth carpet of snow, no ripples, absolutely glorious, yesterday 2.5km 800m descent and just me Cool

Today a faint radioactive glow in the overcast sky Laughing
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@Bülow, cervinia got loads of snow recently is higher and with a lot more terrain up high
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@davidof, a little disappointed you didn't take the opportunity to interweave a bikini beach / ski shot given all the discussion of sand
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Bülow wrote:
Considering a last minute trip to either Ischgl or Cervinia. Where would be the best place to go, considering the foehn and sand dust? Kind of want to explore Ischgl, but concerned about the heat. Snow does seem to be in the forecast, but dunno how certain it is? Smile
`

Without looking at the forecast (which you already have), I can vouch for Cervinia in spring.
To be fair, I was in Ischgl last month during a warm/dry spell, and the piste conditions were still superb.
But Cervinia, as pointed out before, is just on another level. I specifically recall a trip to Monte Rosa at the end of March 2019 when the conditions in Monte Rosa were ok but definitely spring-like, and then we visited Cervinia for a couple days and had hero snow all the way to the village till the end of the day. It's a trend I've observed throughout a few visits there.
I surely am biased, cause it's one of my favourite resorts, but I'd lean towards going there.
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Thanks a lot for the answers! I have just booked last minute Cervinia. First time in the resort, so am quite excited about it. Smile
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Bülow wrote:
Thanks a lot for the answers! I have just booked last minute Cervinia. First time in the resort, so am quite excited about it. Smile

Ohh it's your first time there! I was under the impression you had already been there (and not to Ischgl).
In that case my recommendation is even stronger! I'm sure you'll love it, especially with the fresh layer forecasted for the coming days.
Enjoy it!
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@Bülow, great stuff. May I ask, who did you book through?
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@Gustavo the Gaper, Thanks a lot! That makes me feel like i've made the right decision even more. Smile

@sean1967, It's a danish / swedish tour operator. Smile
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Bülow, thanks, I have been looking for Cervinia accommodation options but have not found many at all.
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@sean1967, we'd best not turn this thread into the (already existing) Cervinia / Zermatt thread, but I found a fair few places on booking, airbnb and this website which seems to be local agency - https://www.ilcervino.com/
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@8611, thanks
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Back to thread , looks pretty unsettled and cool for the next 10 days or so . Could be some really good skiing and powder snow up high to be had in the breaks inbetween. my favourite part of the season .
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 Poster: A snowHead
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A now rare powder alert from wepowder, and the fact its for areas above 2000m maybe tells its own story

https://wepowder.com/en/weblog/2025/03/22/pa7-20-to-40-cm-for-parts-of-the-southern-and-western-alps
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Typical end of March weather , what’s not to like a mix of sun and longer days , some precipitation leaving morning powder on the north faces and some spring to be had on the south faces .
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Yep I actually love it. Terraces, vitamin D, fast skiing through not bitterly cold air, the valleys greening and waking up. Summer beckoning.
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It's like there's a pressure vacuum over Iberia - Italy, even if the models switch to predominant NW flow it's likely to also fire up the ongoing med low.
That's the current trend, and would lead to more snow for all areas around 29-30th. Am booked into La Thuile for a first visit 4-6th apr, but looking good for both north and south sides at the moment next weekend.

ICON 12z just out, for example


The main 3 mean anomaly charts for next weekend show an unusual pattern....not much of a greenland high, but still a decent atlantic ridge / euro trough, focused to the south. So some N/NW air meeting med lows....would be widespread snow to decent levels, but the south should edge it, again, as things stand....



While the means are generally a good indication, some of the Op runs are leaning the pattern towards Austria (UKMO 12z, GFS 12z), standard uncertainty at a week away.....should resolve soon
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The SSW / net easterly zonal winds, seem to be stalling above 100hpa, so not seeing an obvious impact at trop level yet (ie 500 hpa). Meaning the outside bet of major disruption moves out to ‘Janvril’. Right now the normal west to east vortex winds spinning 15-20 km’s above us are at way below average speed, so this should encourage high pressure stalling and ending up further north than usual (northern blocking). Which leads to cold / arctic sourced air reaching lower latitudes like US, Japan, alps

Bear in mind that none of this SSW stuff is easily provable as cause-effect of snow, or even holds a greater than 50/50 chance of reaching us, but it’s definitely out there.

ECM AIFS 12z again with the far away jet wobble

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30th still not 'resolved'.....UKMO 12z stays further east with less snow overall and much milder to the west, while GFS 12z swings a long way back to the west, showing widespread 30+cm to low levels....nice straight isobars from the north. But other models are in between these 2 extremes, so I doubt either will be right. Best guess light to moderate snow north side.



The mean anomaly charts highlight the 2 areas of low pressure, north sea and med, although the med low is very far south, more Libya / Balkans, so might be too far for southern alps, hard to say.



Early april hints of high pressure building in over UK/ northern europe, keeping the southerly jet theme going
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Wepowder backing north west
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Certainly looking interesting from the weekend on
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Always risk of leaning east in this run up to 29-31st, led by UKMO and AIFS, all others have now joined in. Unusual to see ECM so far off the mark, for the last few days it has been showing the secondary low on Sun-Mon impacting the western end (20+cm) but now consensus is a lot further east....expect YR to change soon for N french resorts.

Not expecting much N france, (5-15cm) best spots likely to be Swiss/Austria for 30-50cm.
7 models total ppn here out to monday
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/swiss-mrf/switzerland/accumulated-precipitation/20250331-2100z.html

Early April looking mild and dry as high pressure sets up over most of europe....too far south now to drag in much cold E/NE flow, but the eastern end might stay cooler. There seems to be more uncertainty than normal beyond 5-6 days.
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It's a rollercoaster trying to decide where to go. Yesterday the Pyrenees were looking great for next week and now it's looking very warm indeed...

High France still looking good and now Austria has come into play.....
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