 Poster: A snowHead
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Or Arabba / Dolomites?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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12z are starting to draw a consensus of a Northerly airmass moving south Tues/Wed next week after the front from the SW.
Between Mon-Wed snow showers across the Alps, particularly the Northern Ridge and likely dry again after that.
7 days out so plenty can change still.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I'm off to the Zillertal Saturday until Wednesday, forcasts look warm and windy, with some precipitation that's likely to be rain. Anyone want to give me hope of something better?
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| slider24 wrote: |
| I'm off to the Zillertal Saturday until Wednesday, forcasts look warm and windy, with some precipitation that's likely to be rain. Anyone want to give me hope of something better? |
Good chance of cold temps and snow from Wednesday as things currently stand.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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That will be too late for me so hope it comes a day earlier at least!
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| slider24 wrote: |
| That will be too late for me so hope it comes a day earlier at least! |
Sorry I didn't read your message well enough. Chance of some snow Mon/Tuesday still... maybe 1-5cm
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Thanks, figures crossed!
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Cooling down here in the UK from the 11th, but the dry weather looks to continue into the second half of March.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Have been following Snowforecast's predictions for Aosta Valley for next week... I think they update every 6 or 8 hours, Pila hasgone from ~20cm to 30cm to 40cm to 30cm and back to 40cm+ for sunday night into Monday, whilst up the road at La Thuile & Courmayeur has been fairly steady in the 10-20cm range.
I think safe to say the Models outcomes are quite varied, but there will be some snow......
* just checked wider spread Monterosa, Champorcher and Cogne and Cervinia also predicting the bigger dump, so maybe they think it wont be quite as heavy right up the Western end of Aosta Valley
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| t44tomo wrote: |
Have been following Snowforecast's predictions for Aosta Valley for next week... I think they update every 6 or 8 hours, Pila hasgone from ~20cm to 30cm to 40cm to 30cm and back to 40cm+ for sunday night into Monday, whilst up the road at La Thuile & Courmayeur has been fairly steady in the 10-20cm range.
I think safe to say the Models outcomes are quite varied, but there will be some snow......
* just checked wider spread Monterosa, Champorcher and Cogne and Cervinia also predicting the bigger dump, so maybe they think it wont be quite as heavy right up the Western end of Aosta Valley |
Yes we seem to be getting clarity on S Swiss and NW Italy hitting the jackpot. I think if the 12z runs stick with that then Monday is near enough wrapped up.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Astontech, ECM still seems to be quite different from GFS from what I can see?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Wepowder certainly going nuts with the numbers and some black patches on the map
Although the tell tale sign when its mostly 0cm in resort is that there might be issues with temps?
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| 8611 wrote: |
Wepowder certainly going nuts with the numbers and some black patches on the map
Although the tell tale sign when its mostly 0cm in resort is that there might be issues with temps? |
I’m following Wepowder and I’ve never seen a forecast change so much! Some predictions look crazy.
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You know it makes sense.
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| leggyblonde wrote: |
| @Astontech, ECM still seems to be quite different from GFS from what I can see? |
Yes, ECMWF have been consistent that nil to very low levels of precipitation are heading to The Alps. Just a dusting per day from Sunday onwards. Not a sign of the big dumps mentioned by its meteorological science competitor WePowder.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| leggyblonde wrote: |
| @Astontech, ECM still seems to be quite different from GFS from what I can see? |
Yes ECM 12z is on a limb versus GFS, ARPGE, ICON, I guess we need another day for agreement.
Wepowder goes for the polar opposite, suggesting huge dumps.
Hopefully ECM does not prevail here.
Although even if ECM is correct in Sun/Mon, it has snow showers across the NW alps Wed-Fri.
In short, all scenarios suggest fresh snow somewhere in France in the next week or so, as I said the other day, you would probably be very unlucky to get no fresh snow over the next week.
Following the Sun/Mon event, it looks like there will be a mix of cloud and sun throughout the week given the showery nature of things.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Come on Wepowder!!
Down with ECM 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Time to get the umbrella out...
Heavy rain coming to Switzerland and Italy from Sun to Tues.
Zero iso hovering around 1800-2000m.
The band of rain from (roughly) Zermatt to Val Gardena looks real grim.
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Is this rain storm going to affect Kronplatz at all for monday skiing on the 10th?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Looking like the Italian side and southern alps is going to see lots of action over the the next 10 days according to GFS
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Yeah I’ve just seen the updates.
Hardly anything expected now in that region. I’m back to being depressed.
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| EvieTee wrote: |
Yeah I’ve just seen the updates.
Hardly anything expected now in that region. I’m back to being depressed. |
Next update may well be more positive! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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How's the Via Lattea looking in the next week or two? Still prospects of decent snow early next week?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| t44tomo wrote: |
| EvieTee wrote: |
Yeah I’ve just seen the updates.
Hardly anything expected now in that region. I’m back to being depressed. |
Next update may well be more positive! |
and indeed expected snow levels now back up again!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| t44tomo wrote: |
| t44tomo wrote: |
| EvieTee wrote: |
Yeah I’ve just seen the updates.
Hardly anything expected now in that region. I’m back to being depressed. |
Next update may well be more positive! |
and indeed expected snow levels now back up again! |
Really? My Wepowder hasn’t changed.
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snow-forecast.com@EvieTee,
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You know it makes sense.
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| t44tomo wrote: |
| snow-forecast.com@EvieTee, |
Ok thanks bud
Which resorts you looking at? I’m off to La Plagne.
That’s not changed but trying to remain hopeful.
Thanks for your input! 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| t44tomo wrote: |
| snow-forecast.com@EvieTee, |
Wepowder now also changed
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Difficult to take any single output / web source as reliable with this pattern, beyond day 3 or 4. Reason being the models are not used to handling such a sudden and dramatic change in atmosphere / strat. (The S in SSW is for sudden, not strong), but this one also qualifies as a major SSW.
Interesting to look back a week or so and see what the models were predicting, compared to now, for the coming week. Chalk and cheese doesn’t do it justice as the brakes are slammed from above the whole pattern reverses gear…..high pressure retrogressing to Greenland instead of Europe.
The other give away for low reliability is the lack of consensus across models even at t+120. So if they can’t get the loose pattern right at day 4, the chances of any one model, or single run, being right for say freeze line at dat 5 day 6 etc is very low.
The strat winds don’t actually drop below zero until sometime tomorrow, so that could be another factor behind the noise, ie might see better modelling once the reversal is in the starting data. I’d still expect more noise than usual as this is a pretty rare event, maybe once every 7 years that you get a major SSW early March, on average. 2018 and the BFTE for example.
Near term trend has been for most of the northerly air to slide too far SW, phasing with semi permanent Iberian low, bringing milder air to alps but there are still one or two models that keep the lows further east….it’s pretty marginal, best case probably zero at 1500m NW, so a few flakes and overnight refreeze. And another shot building around the 20th.
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Can we take tomorrow night’s forecasted dump in Aosta/Zermatt/Saas Fee seriously then?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| battlecat wrote: |
| Can we take tomorrow night’s forecasted dump in Aosta/Zermatt/Saas Fee seriously then? |
Take it seriously when you see it on the webcams on Monday morning!
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Definitely going to snow there, exact numbers up for grabs. I certainly wouldn't be selling the house and buying a helicopter but would be confident of a piste refresh at least, up high, and maybe some luck beyond that.
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Yep south event has been well modelled, looks good, I was referring to the NE’ly flow around 12-13th
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We'll see once the current system has crossed the Pyrenees - they are a big obstruction.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looks like a lot of cloud around next week which I haven’t really experienced whilst skiing before. Any tips to make the most of those conditions?
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FAQ
