 Poster: A snowHead
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| leggyblonde wrote: |
| 20-40cm forecast in many places early next week. A bit far out for specifics but this event has been showing on the models for some time. No need for widespread doom and gloom! |
Even the words gloom and doom made me smile.
Thanks! 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@EvieTee, Those short distances can make a difference depending on upon the weather pattern. There are lots of local effects including big mountain ridges and small local systems.
One of the local systems is called ‘retour d’est. it’s a bit complex but it means the mountains facing the Po valley can get a lot of snow. 2 miles over the ridge to the west nothing much at all, purely because the mountains stop the weather getting ‘over the top’.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I'm absolutely no expert, but I would say yes, 30 miles can make a huge difference, because it's not the miles that count, it's the terrain. Aosta Valley is on the opposite side of the main Alpine ridge. Very often you will get snow falling on one side of the ridge and it being 'dry' the other side.
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Wow interesting stuff.
Thank you both for your explanations. Really appreciate it.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Very often you will get snow falling on one side of the ridge and it being 'dry' the other side.
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In my admittedly limited experience it is more common to drive into the north ends of the Mont Blanc or Frejus tunnels out of a world of snow, and out of the south into a dry, brown, landscape, than to experience the reverse.
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Does anyone have any forecast of the snow in Bulgaria? Weather is looking sunny the next week or so but unsure how to read it.
Due to go on the 14th March
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@EvieTee, Yes it is possible there will be snow in Pila (say) and little to none in Val d'Isere. If unusually the weather comes in from the east and so up the Aosta valley the cold damp air will rise over the higher mountains towards Val d'Isere. This causes the air to become drier and when it flows down on the other side of the ridge (towards Val d'Isere in this case) it becomes warmer. This warm dry wind is known as a Föhn and is very unhelpful for snow conditions. An explanation of the specific conditions that sometimes occur in the south western alps, called a retour d'est can be found at https://wepowder.com/en/weblog/2023/01/21/what-is-a-retour-dest
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| Origen wrote: |
| Quote: |
Very often you will get snow falling on one side of the ridge and it being 'dry' the other side.
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In my admittedly limited experience it is more common to drive into the north ends of the Mont Blanc or Frejus tunnels out of a world of snow, and out of the south into a dry, brown, landscape, than to experience the reverse. |
Yes, I'm sure that's the case. My point was about the Alpine ridge acting as a barrier to snow. While it is more normal the other way, in the case of a 'Retour d'est' it can be the French resorts which miss out.
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| EvieTee wrote: |
| t44tomo wrote: |
| leggyblonde wrote: |
| @munich_irish, what does a snowfall anomaly of -4 mean? |
Indeed is it a variance of: mm, cm, meters, %age? kinda crucial!
The week starting 9th march is firming up to look decent for SW Alps, i.e. Via Lattea, Aosta Valley and surrounds |
I’m new to this forecasting business and trying to learn from you guys.
If I look at Aosta Valley that’s about 30 miles from the Tarentaise so does that distance really result in that much difference in terms of snowfall? Lots of people saying no slow for Tarentaise so will it all just dump 30 miles short? |
If I recall a very simplified GCSE version of this:
When a moist cloud encounters a mountain range and the air is forced to rise, it dumps the moisture as it rises. So often one side of the range gets loads of rain (or snow in this case) and the other side gets little as the cloud has already emptied itself.
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| @EvieTee, Yes it is possible there will be snow in Pila (say) and little to none in Val d'Isere. If unusually the weather comes in from the east and so up the Aosta valley the cold damp air will rise over the higher mountains towards Val d'Isere. This causes the air to become drier and when it flows down on the other side of the ridge (towards Val d'Isere in this case) it becomes warmer. This warm dry wind is known as a Föhn and is very unhelpful for snow conditions. An explanation of the specific conditions that sometimes occur in the south western alps, called a retour d'est can be found at https://wepowder.com/en/weblog/2023/01/21/what-is-a-retour-dest |
Will take a look thanks
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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On a somewhat more optimistic but fantasy note spotted this chart at the far end of the current GFS run
It is exactly the sort of weather situation that has been missing this winter. If it were to occur (too distant to take seriously) it would bring heavy snow to the alps. Pretty cold on the east coast of UK too!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I've given up on any idea of grabbing a last minute holiday next week, but I'm keeping the following week free just in case the snow is looking tasty by then! I'm in the curious but luxurious situation of not caring where I go at all, as long as it's a decent price and has good snow, hence holding out to the last minute.
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@J2R, I'm doing the same although will likely travel Saturday or Sunday. As suggested above I'm going to look at Aosta valley.
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You know it makes sense.
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| afterski wrote: |
| @J2R, I'm doing the same although will likely travel Saturday or Sunday. As suggested above I'm going to look at Aosta valley. |
Top of my list, too. An area I love.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Aosta not looking good next week? It seems they could get a fair amount Sun-Tues.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I haven't had great success with dumps of snow over the years and don't really feel I can risk booking on the basis that it might snow. I'm happy to enjoy the benefits of the recent snow the following week, once it's done so.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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In the Dolomites (Gardena) next week.
The GFS ensembles for the area suggest something big in terms of snow for Monday (10th) and Tuesday. Most individual ensembles reach the 25ml block and some the 40ml. Yet there is little consistency in precisely when this will happen; the ensembles are a bit of a jumble atm, but then I guess you expect that this far out.
ECM, from what I can gather, takes a much more conservative view with just a few cms of snow on Monday.
Any thoughts?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@pjd, ECM op run is on the conservative side (below the mean) but still some very big ensembles in the mix there - wait and see is the answer I'm afraid. I'm in the same boat but for Saalbach, hoping that the more generous ensembles play out!
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@michebiche, Thanks
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yes looking at the diffenrence between GFS and ECM I'm considering moving my bet to Saas Fee instead, especially since the Milan flight I wanted is already full. So ZRH it might be.
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@chocksaway,
Cham Meteo forecast for the French alps this evening .
At the end of the weekend, a foehn episode will be set up on our massifs, at the front of a depression positioned off the coast of Portugal. In this context, conditions will deteriorate significantly on the edge of the Hautes-Alpes this Sunday, while the weather will generally be dry elsewhere. In early next week, instability could become widespread.
The front comes up from the south west up the Italian side of the ridge . Presuming snowing in the Aosta and a foehn hole in the Tarentaise , but creeping over in Val D , then judging on this afternoons GFS swings through Monday . See this a lot .
Where I am in Sainte Foy just a few km from you , they always say won’t snow till the foehn stops .
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Grr, was hoping for some sunny skies next week after my trip in January which was cloudy and snowy most of the week but starting to look like it might be similar conditions again.
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Following the 12z GFS and ECM we are starting to get a bit of a firming up on the Sun/Mon event.
It is looking like Southern Alps, especially the Italian side should get most of the action, with very little for the French Alps, especially the more NW you travel (although ECM is more optimistic on this).
Through Monday there is still uncertainty on where the front will head, either hugging the Aosta Valley and the Western Italian Alps, or effecting more Northern areas, on the Southern side of the Swiss Alps - expect clarity on this by around Thurs/Fri.
The general theme beyond there seems to be unsettled. Both GFS and ECM are playing with the idea of a Northerly airmass sweeping down towards the Alps on Wednesday which could provide the Northern,NW ridge with some fresh snowfall but that is certainly not within the reliable timeframe just yet.
I think (as things stand) if you're out there next week, you'd be very unlucky to not see any fresh snow wherever you are in the Alps.
Today the favoured area has shifted imo from the southern alps and Aosta to the southern alps and Valais/Ticino.
My question for anyone experienced specifically in Alpine forecasting... do we often see these types of low steer North and therefore effect the French Alps moreso, or are they usually pretty locked in to sliding under?
I know in the UK, given the non-existent topography, it is usually very volatile. However, I have noticed that the forecasted track has been incredibly consistent over the last few days.
Last edited by After all it is free  on Tue 4-03-25 19:50; edited 2 times in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I can’t bear the suspense!
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| ManiaMuse wrote: |
| Grr, was hoping for some sunny skies next week after my trip in January which was cloudy and snowy most of the week but starting to look like it might be similar conditions again. |
Where are you headed?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| ManiaMuse wrote: |
| Grr, was hoping for some sunny skies next week after my trip in January which was cloudy and snowy most of the week but starting to look like it might be similar conditions again. |
Where are you headed?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| ManiaMuse wrote: |
| Grr, was hoping for some sunny skies next week after my trip in January which was cloudy and snowy most of the week but starting to look like it might be similar conditions again. |
It won't be as cold as January, probably brighter between snow showers as well.
Chin up etc
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@Le Grand Renard, Well it depends which model you look at, one shows the system passing over us and carrying on in a North Westerly direction, another shows it passing to the south of us and carrying on, another shows it passing through us with quite a bit of precipitation which then stalls over the ridge which could lead to a fohn effect wind for us and mimicking the effects of a classic retour d’est That’s why various apps are showing all sorts of differing amounts of snow. The models will struggle a little with this scenario as it’s a relatively unusual direction for the weather to arrive from, which is why it changes every 6 hours. All to play for really.
And no it won’t snow where you are if there’s a fohn effect wind as it’s snowing/raining elsewhere to produce that wind. Once that system moves away it allows another pattern to develop which may be sunny or snowy etc.
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You know it makes sense.
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Which Alpine nation might be receiving snow?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| EvieTee wrote: |
| ManiaMuse wrote: |
| Grr, was hoping for some sunny skies next week after my trip in January which was cloudy and snowy most of the week but starting to look like it might be similar conditions again. |
Where are you headed? |
Val Thorens so pretty miserable in low Vis.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Sorry for my ignorance but I’m trying to learn the various terminology being used and learn more in the forecasting.
I’m looking at pulling the trigger on either Samoens, Les Gets or Montegenevre for the week from the 16th of March. Am I reading this right that Via Lattea looks far more likely to get snow than the other two which are relatively close together?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| ManiaMuse wrote: |
| EvieTee wrote: |
| ManiaMuse wrote: |
| Grr, was hoping for some sunny skies next week after my trip in January which was cloudy and snowy most of the week but starting to look like it might be similar conditions again. |
Where are you headed? |
Val Thorens so pretty miserable in low Vis. |
Gotcha. Though I think what everyone is saying is that Three Valleys and that part of the French Alps is less likely to get snow due to the foehn? So you might be ok.
I on the other hand am wishing for buckets of snow!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| LeLanternVert wrote: |
Sorry for my ignorance but I’m trying to learn the various terminology being used and learn more in the forecasting.
I’m looking at pulling the trigger on either Samoens, Les Gets or Montegenevre for the week from the 16th of March. Am I reading this right that Via Lattea looks far more likely to get snow than the other two which are relatively close together? |
correct
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| LeLanternVert wrote: |
Sorry for my ignorance but I’m trying to learn the various terminology being used and learn more in the forecasting.
I’m looking at pulling the trigger on either Samoens, Les Gets or Montegenevre for the week from the 16th of March. Am I reading this right that Via Lattea looks far more likely to get snow than the other two which are relatively close together? |
Yes, And you might be better off with Sestriere vs Mongenevre within Via Lattea, the weather has a couple more ridge tops to get over between Sest and MontyG
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks for your help, much appreciated.
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Anyone use the OpenSnow app and have any comments on reliability etc. seems to be quite detailed with regular updates. This was their update this morning.
Summary
Significant snow is on the way to the Alps and Pyrenees this week. Several powder days are expected from this cycle and recent model runs show an active pattern continuing into the middle part of the month.
Short Term Forecast
The next storm system to impact the Alps and Pyrenees will arrive later this week and really get going over the weekend. The models have remained fairly consistent over the last few days regarding the first part of this storm. There still remains some uncertainty, however, after the upper-level low moves over land in Spain.
Before the storm makes landfall, the Pyrenees should see some snow/rain showers as early as Thursday night and continuing through Saturday. The intensity should pick up on Saturday afternoon/night in the Pyrenees with heavy snow falling through around Sunday afternoon/night.
In the southwestern Alps, heavy snow should arrive on Sunday afternoon/night and then spread into the southern Swiss and Italian Alps. In the southwestern Alps, this storm will be wrapped up by Monday night/Tuesday morning. It is at this point that the models begin to diverge.
Some of the guidance has the upper-level low weakening with the storm winding down on Monday. Other models keep heavy snow going on the southern side of the eastern Alps and even into the northern side of the Austrian Alps as well.
The models do agree that another upper-level trough will drop down from the north, but there is some uncertainty on the track and how far south it gets. This will determine how intense the next rounds of precipitation are from around Tuesday through Thursday. At the moment, these look like weak to moderate waves.
The ensembles show good agreement on the location of heavy snowfall and solid agreement on totals, with the Pyrenees expected to see the most snow. The southern Alps, especially in the southwestern Italy and southern Switzerland, are favored as well with predominantly southerly flow. At this time, I think the upper elevations of the Pyrenees should see at least .5 - 1 m while most of the southern Alps can expect at least 25 - 50 cm. If the American model is correct, the eastern side of the southern Alps could see totals in the .5 - 1 m range as well. These totals very well may be bumped up as we get closer to the main event.
There isn't a lot of cold air with this storm, so snow levels will be somewhat high. In the Pyrenees, they will start around 2000 m and fall to around 1500 m during the storm. In the Alps, the cold front, already unimpressive upon its arrival in the Pyrenees, will be mostly dismantled by the time it reaches the Alps. Thus, snow levels will remain around 1500 m for most of the storm.
Extended Forecast
As mentioned, the models diverge early next week, and even more so toward the end of the week into the weekend. Additional accumulations are expected, but at the moment these look like minor to moderate events. Let's hope one or two of these becomes stronger and brings additional heavy snow.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Is any of this snow going to make it to the St-Luc / Chandolin area of Switzerland?
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| medlington2 wrote: |
| Is any of this snow going to make it to the St-Luc / Chandolin area of Switzerland? |
GFS says yes. ECM says not so much (possibly a little bit).
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FAQ
