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The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Alpinebear, bickering is what happens when there is no weather Laughing
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@leggyblonde, good news hopefully. Météo France has the change as well so fingers crossed.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@leggyblonde, the ensembles do seem broadly aligned that it will cool down early next week which is nice.

ECM bringing more northerly flow on its latest run, GFS sticking with westerly Atlantic flow - but too far ahead to know which one will prevail.
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March is the new January , has been for the last two seasons and will be again this I suspect .
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Yes Meteo France now seeing snow / rain from the 26th February.
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17th Feb from a few years back. 70cm of snow in Lausanne snowHead
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DGLMH74vA55/?igsh=MWNmOGE5MnZubDU0cg==
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
How are the charts looking for Aosta valley next week?

While we’re on the subject of squabbling, which app do people rate? AccuWeather, XC, Yr, Meteoblue? (I have no idea which model each of these are based on btw but happy to be educated Laughing)
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
MotownJunk wrote:
...While we’re on the subject of squabbling, which app do people rate? AccuWeather, XC, Yr, Meteoblue? (I have no idea which model each of these are based on btw but happy to be educated Laughing)
"Windy" beats them all (choice of 5 models with ECMWF the default), with "Bergfex" a close second snowHead
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@geoffers, I’ve used Bergfex in the past, I admit I’m a bit baffled by Windy and too tight to pay for premium snowHead
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Using reliable ecmwf for the popular example of Meribel. A few inches of rain on the 25th followed by a prolonged cold and dry spell.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202502171200&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=45.415&lon=6.565&station_name=M%C3%A9ribel


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Tue 18-02-25 9:02; edited 1 time in total
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@MotownJunk, windy is very easy - and the best bit is the comparison between all the models - which I think goes to show how inaccurate the whole forecasting malarkey is, as if they can't get it right........



And a few models showing 10+ cms 27th now - but we're clutching at straws this early
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Indeed I pay for windy premium as it has a higher resolution for yachting*. They recently added the ECM ai forecast to the end. I think what that view normally shows is just how much more accurate ECM is than any other model in my experience.

*For wind sports PredictWind (paid) is slightly better as they modify the main models to account for sea breeze influence on the gradients.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
WXcharts is free https://wxcharts.com/and has all the various models though I would guess if you pay for Windy (or whatever) you get a higher resolution etc.

Did notice this morning that both ECM & GFS are suggesting a return to cooler & unsettled weather next week, how much snow and where, is, as ever, somewhat less clear.

@Weathercam, GFS is suggesting snow on the 27th for Serre Chevalier with the inevitable Genoa low.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
MotownJunk wrote:
How are the charts looking for Aosta valley next week?

While we’re on the subject of squabbling, which app do people rate? AccuWeather, XC, Yr, Meteoblue? (I have no idea which model each of these are based on btw but happy to be educated Laughing)


Look at them all and go with that one that best gives you what you want to hear!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looking unsettled for a week at least after next Tues across much of the alps. Southerly wind direction so altitude and microclimates will determine how much is snow and how much is wet stuff. Suspect France side of the ridge might be wet at lower altitudes, hopefully Italy will see mainly snow. further west into Switz Austria should be snow
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slider24 wrote:
MotownJunk wrote:
How are the charts looking for Aosta valley next week?

While we’re on the subject of squabbling, which app do people rate? AccuWeather, XC, Yr, Meteoblue? (I have no idea which model each of these are based on btw but happy to be educated Laughing)


Look at them all and go with that one that best gives you what you want to hear!


That’s what I usually do! Laughing
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@geoffers, didn't Windy buy Meteoblue?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
How do you get that model comparison in Windy @Weathercam ? EDIT @ : Ignore , i found the Compare option !

A request, Scotland, I know, but it's my livelihood, we've just had a massive snow stripping event again, my bank manager is not happy, give me some realistic hope !
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@orange, yes it's not easy Toofy Grin
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Get the umbrellas out...

Heavy rain below 1800m early next week.

France is looking wet.
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Whitegold wrote:
Get the umbrellas out...

Heavy rain below 1800m early next week.

France is looking wet.


Crikey … Tuesday and Wednesday. Are they typical April temperatures before that?
https://meteofrance.com/meteo-montagne/serre-chevalier/050231
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Actually think next weeks forecast is pretty positive from Tuesday/wed onwards , more so for the North West of the Alps not sure they will see actually see that much rain before then . Rain/ snow limit falls pretty quickly with cold front Tuesday/Wednesday , Cham Meteo this morning was forecasting noticeable cooling Tuesday with R/S limit 1600m falling to 1300m . Might be different for Serre Chevalier however .
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
For Schladming area, GFS looking pretty decent for cold (average) temps and precip from 27th onwards

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2441&model=gfs&var=201&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1

Hopefully leading to a powdery march. Not that last few weeks have been too bad, cool, lots of sunshine and the odd modest snowfall. Piste holding up well and some decent powder to be found earlier this week.
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@Snow&skifan, please don’t feed the troll
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@Weathercam, @orange, I can't igure it out either! Advice welcome . Do you need premium?
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Quote:
Actually think next weeks forecast is pretty positive from Tuesday/wed onwards

Whitegold unusually positive too Very Happy
Quote:
Get the umbrellas out...
Heavy rain below 1800m early next week.
France is looking wet

I'd have expected "Below 1800m: Heatwave temperatures akin to June; monsoon rains; all snow washed away; local wildlife being led two by two onto an evacuation vessel..."
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Snow&skifan, @greyslush has never skied but hangs out here wee-ing people off. Best ignored.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
https://www.skiresort.info/snow-reports/europe/sorted/open-slopes/

Half way through the season and most lifts and runs are now open, at least in the bigger resorts.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
slider24 wrote:
@Weathercam, @orange, I can't igure it out either! Advice welcome . Do you need premium?

I assumed so, i have it anyway. If you do its on the bottom bar beside the model being used
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@slider24, as@orange says, bottom left of first screen, having clicked on the model (in this case ECMWF>)...

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@slider24, and to confirm, you don't need premium to access the comparison charts on windy.com and they did buy MeteoBlue.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@geoffers, @Weathercam, thanks both, found it now! Little Angel
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
It has been snowing just ever so slightly in Männlichen (Grindelwald/Wengen) today. It's VERY little, I even suspected it might be blown off snow from the peaks, but I think it is fresh snow.
Some forecasts had predicted a bit of snow today a few days ago but it had disappeared yesterday.

Hope it's a prelude of what's to come this week (too bad I'm leaving tonight). Despite the dry and warm weather, pistes are holding up well though (as usual).

EDIT: right after my comment it started to snow visibly, though at 1800m it's a mix of snow and rain
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5cm above 1900/2000m last night around Grenoble. Rain below.
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It started snowing half way through the WC Mens SG this morning in Crans-Montana. Just an anecdote, but was this forecast?
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@Snow&skifan, yes. In very low quantities though.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Good snow report from Chamonix, France.

Looks like summer in the valley!


http://youtube.com/v/qWIOwowdCes?feature=shared
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Snow at 1600/1700m in the Tarentaise (la Plagne etc.) but only about 5cm. A few flakes continuing today and tomorrow but with the zero iso going up to 2900m today. Then sunny weather forecast through to the 7th March. North Atlantic still looking way too hot although it is on a cooling trend relative to 2024.

All in all not bad for the end of April.
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The charts are all pretty gloomy this morning. I'm no expert (polo we're missing you...) but looks like strong alignment for a very warm week next week Sad
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Cold from Wednesday for at least a week?
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202502240000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=45.415&lon=6.565&station_name=M%C3%A9ribel
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