 Poster: A snowHead
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@Renry, skiing below 1500m is getting increasingly marginal any time of the year. At one time it would snow, then maybe stay cold so the snow would stick around even if not the best. Now it snows, rains, foehns and the snow appears, vanishes, appears without a base ever getting established.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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What he says ↑
Based on nigh on 15 seasons at 1400m - and it's the subject of most conversations with others at some point as we're all getting very fecked off with it and still find it hard to accept as the possible new normal.
For sure, it doesn't affect 98% of skiers on SHs but for those of us that cross-country ski it has a huge impact, and then there's the loss of those off-piste runs back to the valley floor through the forest as well as ski-tour routes on the South side etc etc etc
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Rain is the new snow.
Plenty of rain coming at low to mid altitude in Western Europe this week.
France and Italy will need an umbrella below ~1500m on Tues / Weds.
Mid-Jan is supposed to be the coldest part of deepest winter.
US extremely cold right now.
North Dakota nudging -50c windchill in places.
Oil and pumpjacks shutting down because of the cold.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
US extremely cold right now.
North Dakota nudging -50c windchill in places.
Oil and pumpjacks shutting down because of the cold. |
Well this is why I was wondering how much of the warm weather in recent winters (and right now) in the Alps can really be chalked up to climate change versus just bad luck. It seems like if Europe had as cold a winter as we’ve had in the U.S. so far things would be completely different.
@Polo as always thanks for your detailed explanation several messages ago regarding some of this. When you said solar activity, QBO, ENSO and MJO have different phases that play a role- I don’t know much here but I’m assuming this would explain alot of why it’s so warm in the Alps right now vs. the U.S.- just a combination of unfavorable phases? And if these various drivers occur in phases, is it possible to map out future winters to determine how conducive the expected combination of phases each year might be for snow? I’m guessing we could have looked at these various drivers ahead of this winter and predicted a poor January?
Again let me know if there is a better thread for this, I don’t mean to sidetrack this one too much here. Just trying to figure out if there is a scientific way to justify the last couple years as a blip and to predict more historically normal weather in future winters.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
skiing below 1500m is getting increasingly marginal any time of the year.
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I certainly think this seems to be the case, in the western end of the Alps, having worked seasons in French resorts below that altitude. In Austria though consistent snow cover down to 1000m or below still seems the norm. We were sat outside yesterday looking at seven identifiable layers of snow in the half meter or so on the roof of a shed, obviously dating back many weeks, and that was at 950m.
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| Quote: |
I was wondering how much of the warm weather in recent winters (and right now) in the Alps can really be chalked up to climate change versus just bad luck
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The earth's climate has been breaking all kinds of temperature records in recent years and the trend is very much upwards. A few days cold blip in the US doesn't mean much overall.
Don't forget that the Alps is affected by the Atlantic gulf stream as well as the jet stream. Until those mechanisms switch off, they'll never have the deep cold that America gets.
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| leggyblonde wrote: |
| Quote: |
I was wondering how much of the warm weather in recent winters (and right now) in the Alps can really be chalked up to climate change versus just bad luck
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The earth's climate has been breaking all kinds of temperature records in recent years and the trend is very much upwards. A few days cold blip in the US doesn't mean much overall.
Don't forget that the Alps is affected by the Atlantic gulf stream as well as the jet stream. Until those mechanisms switch off, they'll never have the deep cold that America gets. |
and that switching off may be much sooner than we anticipate if some scientists are to be believed.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Lets focus on weather on this thread....
clear day for most of the Alps today, more predominantly light snow on wed & thurs to freshen things up and then unsettled again at the weekend.
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Latest GFS shows snow around the 28th, anything to be excited about there?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@mrvinegar, seems to be matched by ECM so that's a good sign... but warm temps on both too.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@cb97, those background drivers mostly aren't favourable for the northern hemisphere this year, eg we are near solar max in the 11 year cycle (peak expected July 2025), so based on this alone I would expect better chances of northern blocking (prolonged cold outbreaks) around the next solar min, say 2028-2032. Also the QBO flips every 2 years and is currently in it's unfavourable westerly phase, so would expect easterly next season or two, which will help slow down the vortex. ENSO not a strong signal this year and more relevant to North America than Europe (but Nina generally front loaded winter, mild end), while MJO is more of a weekly-monthly cycle and also not currently in a good phase (last good one was around xmas, next one might be mid Feb).
So yeah this season was expected to be poor based on these drivers, which no doubt have some input into long range modelling. But despite all of that, we've had a pretty good December in most parts of the alps, and now you have US extreme cold. As mentioned it's just a combination of factors leading to this euro pattern (which is not that unusual). The very strong organised polar vortex (possibly driven by solar and QBO) is rarely good for europe, while this weeks arctic plunge eastern US is directly impacting the atlantic jet and reinforcing poor euro pattern.
Thursday morning....hasn't changed.....depending on model and run, I'd still say 10-20cm NW starting 2000m FL with wet snow to 1500m. We've seen much worse in Dec/Jan in recent years with several episodes of 50+mm to well over 2000m.....so not the end of the world just yet.
Weekend looks largely mild and dry to me....maybe a shower late Sunday, but the real focus is next week 28th-30th. Unfortunately there is low confidence in what the models are showing as we need almost perfect alignment of trough v ridge to get lucky due to the combination of dominant SW-NE pattern overall and the very active atlantic systems zipping across.
Speaking of which....will there be red warnings for parts of Ire/UK? UKMO Friday (Eowyn) and ECM Monday (Floris) show 2 deep storms about 950mb.... 50-100mph winds possible.
 
Looking at the means for 29th, been a while since we had this level of agreement for something slightly colder and snowier.....ECM still leading the way with troughing towards Italy, and more of a NW-SE track. Others catching on, but not nailed on yet.
  
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Starting the snow dance for last night's ECM to materialise...
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@RobinS, yes you are quite right it is a French alps thing
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Poster: A snowHead
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Glaciers are melting, temps are leaping, hot winds are blowing, snowfall is shrinking, rain is rising.
It's been a very strong and clear trend across the entire world since the mid-1970s.
The big (big) change this decade, in Europe, in the 2020s, is the arrival of nighttime rain.
Enormous downpours up-high in the middle of the night in the middle of deepest winter.
Becoming the norm.
See tomorrow (Weds) for an example.
It will rain up to 2000m in France, Italy, and elsewhere.
At night.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Ok, Al Gore.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nunex wrote: |
| Ok, Al Gore. |
Ah no, with his doomsday dire predictions , imbecile level of wumming ,and his down with Europe attitude, he's far more Trump...
Whitegold probably regularly sports his maga hat & hails Trump his superhero saviour with all the other saddies.... 
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He’s right though
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Can we keep on topic please?
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well its snowing down to resort level (1400-1500m) in Aosta Valley this morning
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| Le Grand Renard wrote: |
| He’s right though |
'Even a stopped clock can be right twice a day'
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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not about "night time" rain it's not!
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Looks like winter is back next week (Monday night / Tuesday) with widespread snow & cooler temps according to ECM & GFS
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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i know a fair way out still but what is the forecast looking like for 30 Jan to 2 Feb for France?
Got possiblity of cheeky weekend, but not if forecast iffy
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| stefoy4me wrote: |
i know a fair way out still but what is the forecast looking like for 30 Jan to 2 Feb for France?
Got possiblity of cheeky weekend, but not if forecast iffy |
It should be ideal shirley, unsettled weather with good snow potential earlier in the week and then looking like clearing up for blue bird skiing on recent snow?
YMMV depending on exact location / micro climates etc etc etc
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most likely Tarentaise
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You know it makes sense.
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...and stop calling me Shirley!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| michebiche wrote: |
| ...and stop calling me Shirley! |
".....I'm deadly serious and don't call me Shirley!" a classic. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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So what has happened to change from the forecast of rain to seemingly snow now?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@mrvinegar, looks like it's turning to rain lower down. Temps set to rise
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Some forecasts showing quite some precipitation in parts of the SE alps (some Slovenian resorts) in the coming 7 days, up to 60+cm. The question is how much of that will really come in solid form, as FL is expected to be around 1700m...
ECM shows a drop in temperature at the end of next week (a few days sooner in the western alps), though that's still rather far out.
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| mrvinegar wrote: |
| So what has happened to change from the forecast of rain to seemingly snow now? |
Nothing material except that is was always uncertain as many have stated into the run up to now. I haven't looked at the charts but models are models and best guesses. A small shift in a pressure area can have material impacts. There was always uncertainty that far out as to where the snow line would actually be.......then there is the fact it may not be snowing everywhere and 850hpa temp equivalent are not always comparable to 1500m in mountainous areas, in winter + there is micro climes at play....and there was an indication of a cooling as models ran over the days.....however,
Temps on Thurs and Friday are likely to be warm during day with SL likely to be above 1800m perhaps well over 2000m in places....so if no precipitation at that time it wont be rain, but if the expected Thurs precip falls between 03-15pm as it currently shows in places, it will be rain in most places and snow at high alts.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Gustavo the Gaper wrote: |
| Some forecasts showing quite some precipitation in parts of the SE alps (some Slovenian resorts) in the coming 7 days, up to 60+cm. |
Is it just me or have somewhat off centre places been hit a few times this year? Slovenia, some of the other former Yugoslavian republics, the Apennines
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| 8611 wrote: |
| Gustavo the Gaper wrote: |
| Some forecasts showing quite some precipitation in parts of the SE alps (some Slovenian resorts) in the coming 7 days, up to 60+cm. |
Is it just me or have somewhat off centre places been hit a few times this year? Slovenia, some of the other former Yugoslavian republics, the Apennines |
No clue, I've mostly been following that region for the past couple of weeks because I'm heading there (and first to Tyrol/Salzburg) coming weekend. But despite the high temps and dry weather some webcams do still look rather decent, so I think (and hope) you might be right; I'd guess a decent base has been built at least.
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Is there anything realistic in the forecasts for the Salzburger Superski area of Austria? Pistes are holding up well, but getting steadily firmer and icier. If we don't get some fresh soon I am going to have to buy some new skis! Trying to hold an edge on icy pistes on my 98mm underfoot Bonafides is starting to do my dodgy knee in.
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Amazes me that people think it's ok to post personal climate change or even worse political views on a short term weather outlook thread.
Anyway plenty of snow coming......the best case scenario with this pattern has a good chance of playing out now, rollercoaster temps, but with each cycle ending with snow to low levels.
Can see 3 distinct fronts arriving over the next week (thurs sunday tuesday), and all of them look cold, in that they start highish and finish low, with the really mild bursts largely dry. Absolute result if that works out as the pattern gradually flips from SW flow to NW and we avoid any washouts below 1800m. Obviously I'm mostly referring to the NW alps as that's where my selfish interest and bookmarks all reside. But easy enough to see how the bigger trend affects most of the alps at the same time, albeit unevenly.
Ensembles, very good consistency, 2 mild bumps 24th and 27th as the lows arrive from the SW but then staying cold for a while after 27th as it looks like high pressure builds to the west attracting cold from the east, shutting off the mild atlantic flow
  
And really good agreement now on the means for 29th.....compare to last post to see just how much GFS and GEM have been a few days behind ECM......really showing it's 'most accurate' tag, along with the AI version
 
So yes there is troughing showing now towards the Italian end of med, which is a big change for temps across all of the alps.
Time for one of these....out to Sunday 30th, think most would be happy with half of that.....GFS 06z was a cracking pattern, and while it may well get watered down, there is good support now across the board for decent fresh coverage, right on cue
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| RobinS wrote: |
| Is there anything realistic in the forecasts for the Salzburger Superski area of Austria? Pistes are holding up well, but getting steadily firmer and icier. If we don't get some fresh soon I am going to have to buy some new skis! Trying to hold an edge on icy pistes on my 98mm underfoot Bonafides is starting to do my dodgy knee in. |
Looks like eastern alps getting the dregs again which seems the pattern this winter, needs a decent nordstau.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2441&model=gem&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1
At least some signs of snowfall.
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I didn't book anything for next week in the end as it looked like no snow, rain or wind. Now I'm getting a bit of fomo. My next opportunity is somewhere between the 5th and 15th which might be good for snow, but have probably missed out on any bargains
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