 Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, Was eagerly awaiting your thoughts All we need is a degree or two lower and we could be in dreamland
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Need a fingers crossed Emoticon
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Thanks Polo! Holding out hope for an east atlantic ridge and colder temps to go with a snowy finish to each cycle below 1800m.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Bergfex forecasting ~40cm coming Thursday/Friday in some Slovenian resorts (like Vogel e Kanin/SellaNevea), albeit with a FL around 1800m. Any models showings similar results for the SE alps, or is it one of those aberrations that will disappear within 6 hours?
I've seen Bergfex forecast insane amounts of snow that magically disappear after a couple hours; I don't really take it seriously
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| Gustavo the Gaper wrote: |
Bergfex forecasting ~40cm coming Thursday/Friday in some Slovenian resorts (like Vogel e Kanin/SellaNevea), albeit with a FL around 1800m. Any models showings similar results for the SE alps, or is it one of those aberrations that will disappear within 6 hours?
I've seen Bergfex forecast insane amounts of snow that magically disappear after a couple hours; I don't really take it seriously |
I find the same with bergfex often a way out talk of 40+ cm which often disappears
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Is it just me or does the forecast for the French Alps just keep getting worse every time I refresh it
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@sabski, the Lord giveth and he certainly fecking took awayeth in the last 12hrs 
We have the SIGB ski test in La Clusaz on Monday week and it looks like we now have to evaluate again, what skis to best test.
Might get all of 10-15cm of fresh mid-week here in Serre Chevalier, whereas at one point looked like a Retour D'Est on the cards for here and not much in comparison for La Clusaz, now that's all changed.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Weathercam, I'll maybe see you at the ski test, we'll be pouring beer on the Volkl stand!
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@Weathercam, also going to La Clusaz Monday 27th for 8 days, its a regular stop for us usually around the same date each year and last year was the poorest conditions I can remember over the last 10 years. Sadly It’s looking like it could be much the same this year
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Sun 19-01-25 10:44; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| sussexmartlet wrote: |
| Gustavo the Gaper wrote: |
Bergfex forecasting ~40cm coming Thursday/Friday in some Slovenian resorts (like Vogel e Kanin/SellaNevea), albeit with a FL around 1800m. Any models showings similar results for the SE alps, or is it one of those aberrations that will disappear within 6 hours?
I've seen Bergfex forecast insane amounts of snow that magically disappear after a couple hours; I don't really take it seriously |
I find the same with bergfex often a way out talk of 40+ cm which often disappears |
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looking quite mild in the west but dry again after the 23rd ?
Good news for the piste skiers 
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Sun 19-01-25 12:01; edited 1 time in total
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Yep uninspiring across the board, 23-24 middle ground, brief dip to 0, then milder and probably drier as storms head SW-NE over UK. The euro high not under much threat with no useful blocking anywhere in the reliable, so default +NAO.
Guess those means were right to not show any sub zero temps and the Atlantic being held at bay for a while
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You know it makes sense.
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Drier ensembles means less rain for the lower resorts though 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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ECM seems to think more precipitation action despite the high?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Just wanted to add my appreciation to the regular expert contributors. Very much enjoying reading this, albeit it’s all very confusing!!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| timlongs wrote: |
| @Weathercam, I'll maybe see you at the ski test, we'll be pouring beer on the Volkl stand! |
We'll say hello !
And see some of it has come back for next weekend 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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With the jet stream being forecast to really whip up in the coming days could this make these long range models even less likely to agree. I’m looking tentatively towards next weekend for my visit to La Clusaz.
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| Renry wrote: |
| With the jet stream being forecast to really whip up in the coming days could this make these long range models even less likely to agree. |
Agree, that was part of my point I tend to look at trends this far out: increasingly uncertain and and just maybe seeing a slight cooling trend with the average of big differences in ensemble amplitudes? A lot of air to pass over a lot of water......or not as the case maybe.
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| Ackie68 wrote: |
| Renry wrote: |
| With the jet stream being forecast to really whip up in the coming days could this make these long range models even less likely to agree. |
Agree, that was part of my point I tend to look at trends this far out: increasingly uncertain and and just maybe seeing a slight cooling trend with the average of big differences in ensemble amplitudes? A lot of air to pass over a lot of water......or not as the case maybe. |
Are you saying there's still a chance that the week of the 26th-1st might not be as abysmally warm as predicted?
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| sabski wrote: |
| Ackie68 wrote: |
| Renry wrote: |
| With the jet stream being forecast to really whip up in the coming days could this make these long range models even less likely to agree. |
Agree, that was part of my point I tend to look at trends this far out: increasingly uncertain and and just maybe seeing a slight cooling trend with the average of big differences in ensemble amplitudes? A lot of air to pass over a lot of water......or not as the case maybe. |
Are you saying there's still a chance that the week of the 26th-1st might not be as abysmally warm as predicted? |
Probably not...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Question- how much of the mild weather and rain right now and last year is due to compounding effects of acute factors like +NAO, jet stream activity, polar vortex etc. and how much is due to general warming trends?
I’ve only ever been to the Alps last winter and this upcoming week and just looking at webcams from 5 or 10 years ago looks completely different and way snowier.
Also wondering if it is a safer bet to book earlier in the season, as after last year and now this year it seems like you start getting warmer weather by mid to late January? Trying to figure out if I’ve just visited during outlier years or what exactly I should expect moving forwards.
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Uk gearing up for a run of possible storms later this week and next.
Got a mention on Countryfile forecast tonight. Might be better news for Scotland on the snow front depending where the depression tracks. Looks to be snow turning to rain this far south, but a long way to go yet.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@cb97, can’t help on the climate but by all accounts the best snow last year was in December or March/April. Certainly we’ve had a few years of this January euro high blocking new snow (I’ve been last weekend of Jan for the last few years and had old snow repeatedly!)
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@cb97, there has been a run of some terrible Februarys ,it used to be considered the best month , now March is the best in my view
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@michebiche @Le Grand Renard Yeah that's what's frustrating me, I did alot of research and historically late Jan/early Feb seemed like the best bet for snow to low elevations with no rain (why I booked Jan 26-Feb 1 this year), but last year was so bad during this period and this year doesn't seem much better by this point.
So I'm wondering if this is a matter of either:
a) getting a season without a January euro high like you mention, and suddenly this period is back to having peak snow conditions to low elevations
b) there has been a permanent shift and this is no longer considered peak winter
Ultimately thinking about when to book next year.
*As a side note, I live in the southern U.S. and it's way colder here than NW Alps right now which is just weird. I have family in New Orleans and they're getting 12-20 cm snow in a couple days.
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You know it makes sense.
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| cb97 wrote: |
@michebiche @Le Grand Renard Yeah that's what's frustrating me, I did alot of research and historically late Jan/early Feb seemed like the best bet for snow to low elevations with no rain (why I booked Jan 26-Feb 1 this year), but last year was so bad during this period and this year doesn't seem much better by this point.
So I'm wondering if this is a matter of either:
a) getting a season without a January euro high like you mention, and suddenly this period is back to having peak snow conditions to low elevations
b) there has been a permanent shift and this is no longer considered peak winter
Ultimately thinking about when to book next year.
*As a side note, I live in the southern U.S. and it's way colder here than NW Alps right now which is just weird. I have family in New Orleans and they're getting 12-20 cm snow in a couple days. |
Your situation, research, conclusions, frustrations, background, and dates of travel are so close to mine. I had to make sure I didn't make this comment
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@cb97, January can be peak Winter as can February , whilst I feel that seasons have changed the influence of the South Atlantic has always been there and shows up quite often during the so called peak winter months , for me though the change is when it does it’s warmer with rain/snow levels rising 400m or so above what they used to be, If you are asking me the peak is the first two weeks in March when snow depths are approaching their peak and the sun is getting to a nice height not necessarily the coldest .
Back onto the outlook , change is starting Wednesday but looks like the full blown assault is tracking north west of the alps and Britain , a rollercoaster of rain snow levels are ahead this weekend generally quite high .
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Poster: A snowHead
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I've been going through this thread and I'm afraid I can't make heads or tails of it. You're all far cleverer than I am!
In layman's terms, is there a reading on what conditions will be like in the western Alps next week or is it a little early to tell still?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@PrinceJohn, As I understand it this week is a bit unpredictable with the jets team whipping up, it’s also all over the place so the models are struggling to agree on anything solid. There is a possibility for some precipitation later this week with the snow line yo-yoing.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| PrinceJohn wrote: |
I've been going through this thread and I'm afraid I can't make heads or tails of it. You're all far cleverer than I am!
In layman's terms, is there a reading on what conditions will be like in the western Alps next week or is it a little early to tell still? |
changeable and depends where you are (going). Wind direction has headed is heading more easterly / southerly, mush harder to predict or more subject to micro climates than a big front steaming in the the atlantic. the freeze / snowline is also very unpredictable.
Classic example this morning La Thuile has low cloud and snow but over the other side of the ridge La Rosiere is basking in sunshine.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I'll have a go at some of the questions above...
+NAO is just a measure of pressure differential between the Azores and Iceland, the more positive it is the more likely that europe is under a mild high. Not strictly always the case, especially in a -NAO pattern (high pressure north atlantic), the positioning of the high east or west will have a big impact on euro temps. Anyway it's not a perfect metric on it's own, each NAO pattern can have different results for the alps, but very generally + is mild and - is cold. The default year round pattern is +NAO, ie 90% of the time the atlantic has low pressure and europe is under high pressure.
In winter once the polar vortex has formed, the cold pool of air to the north tends to fire up the jet stream and lead to more zonal patterns, ie fast moving storms travelling W-E, or often SW-NE. So the position and strength of the vortex is a big driver of our weather. When the vortex is organised into a single blob it tends to sit over NE Canada / Greenland (like now) and that is usually a poor set up for the alps as the northern arm of the jet is strong - zonal, westerly etc. On the other hand when the vortex is split into several blobs, or mostly over the siberian side, that allows for weaker zonal winds and arctic air to reach further south towards mid lattitudes, with a more wavy (meridonal) jet stream.
January tends to see the strongest most organised vortices as the sun is lowest, arctic coldest etc. Which can go either way, but again in general Jan tends to be the most westerly driven month....but other factors will dictate the weather we get.....eg solar activity, QBO, ENSO, MJO.....these background drivers have different phases that play a role, albeit hard to prove in isolation.
Long story short, Jan can be the coldest month, but not all parts of the northern hemisphere can benefit at the same time....this week the arctic plunge in US is leading to the mild air getting dragged over europe, via active jet and deep atlantic lows.
I don't think you can draw conclusions as to the best month to book a trip.....obviously less of an issue at altitude or the more snow sure regions (northern alps). And while I've only been into all of this snow malarky for a relatively short time, there does seem to be a loose pattern of good snow mid Nov-early Dec, milder Jan-Feb, and better chances of arctic outbreaks again in Mar-early Apr. This is exactly the pattern of the polar vortex wind strength as it builds up slowly pre xmas, peaks late Jan, and fades away in spring. Clearly this is a very generalised observation and small sample size.....changing climate, coincidence or long term correlation....don't know.
So this week.....first wave today for southern alps, then weak front for the west on wednesday and then quite a big difference still in the FL projections for thurs....and less than 70hrs away. GFS is one of the milder patterns, as it never really turns the air to the NW. It's currently showing about 20cm, with over half of that only above 1700m NW. ECM ensembles and others are slightly better....so who knows, I'd expect we'll need 1500m for decent fresh coverage but will probably need to wait until thurs afternoon for temps to drop, and by then most of the ppn may have passed.
Beyond this week, most models stick with the SW-NE flow..... very stormy Ire/UK for about a week. But there are some chinks in the armour appearing from the ECM models from the 28th.
Best to stick with ensembles and means though given the background (as opposed to individual Op runs).
Here are the main 3 for NW alps....the cooling trend mentioned is more apparent now with the mean temps at or below zero beyond the mild bump (25-27). Combination of low pressure dropping further SE, transitory atlantic ridge....or even a proper ridge building north and allowing more northerly flow into europe. So this zonal onslaught might not last that long.
  
I'll be keeing an eye on the day 10 (30th) means, as that's when 1'm personally hoping for more fresh snow.....ECM by far the best (note little bump in atlantic and lower heights over alps compared to GFS/GEM), which is always a good start
  
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| cb97 wrote: |
@michebiche @Le Grand Renard Yeah that's what's frustrating me, I did alot of research and historically late Jan/early Feb seemed like the best bet for snow to low elevations with no rain (why I booked Jan 26-Feb 1 this year), but last year was so bad during this period and this year doesn't seem much better by this point.
So I'm wondering if this is a matter of either:
a) getting a season without a January euro high like you mention, and suddenly this period is back to having peak snow conditions to low elevations
b) there has been a permanent shift and this is no longer considered peak winter
Ultimately thinking about when to book next year.
*As a side note, I live in the southern U.S. and it's way colder here than NW Alps right now which is just weird. I have family in New Orleans and they're getting 12-20 cm snow in a couple days. |
Unless there is a continued trend for 5-10+ years, it is likely just bad luck.
It is natural that there will be HP spells and LP spells, warm and cold throughout the winter.
It’s really not a bad idea to hold off booking a trip until a week where conditions are looking primer, but obviously you need the flexibility to do so.
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@Renry, try imgur.com, upload then click share links and paste the BB code.
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| Renry wrote: |
@Astontech, "Unless there is a continued trend for 5-10+ years, it is likely just bad luck"
since 2014 I have been going to the same spot in Croix Fry, (for access to the Manigod & La Clusaz ski area) in the Aravis massif, located at an altitude of 1477m, visiting either late January or early Feburary (missing only during the pandemic). In the grounds of the chalet we have a reclaimed chair lift used as a bench. Up to last year (2024) I have never sat on or even seen other than the very top foot or so of this old chair lift. Last year I sat on it with grass all around me. I am sadly expecting much the same when we fly out on Sunday 
If I could upload the photos I would like to share them |
That’s a shame, however, it would take much more than 2 years to claim anything has change from Jan being the heart of winter.
Just like if you had a meter extra snow on it for 2 consecutive years, you probably wouldn’t think it was anything outside of good luck.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Renry, close! Click the three dots ... and chose get share links, then copy and paste the one that says BBCode (Forums)
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @Renry, close! Click the three dots ... and chose get share links, then copy and paste the one that says BBCode (Forums) |
\
Thanks
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