 Poster: A snowHead
|
@polo, Thanks for the thorough update. So it looks like the last week of Jan could have nothing, something, or everything 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
so maybe a few flakes in some places if we are lucky in the coming week, but nothing of any significance, but generally more of the same until the end of the month. Very small chance of a bit of snow action right at the end of the month.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
yep anything could happen last week of Jan, it's just too far away and with a messy set up to come first.....but not in a good way overall at the moment as if you look at the mean temps on GFS and ECM ensembles for the rest of the month (out to day 16), at no point does the mean 1500m temp dip below 0c. GFS is mostly +1 to 2 and ECM +3 to 5 for the NW.....the only straw I can take is the models are not consistent with any general path so confidence is even lower than usual beyond a week.
Different story across the atlantic.....that Canadian vortex drops south next week, blizzards and dangerously cold
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| polo wrote: |
Different story across the atlantic.....that Canadian vortex drops south next week, blizzards and dangerously cold
|
the chill wind of Trump's inauguration?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
Thanks for all the info Polo!
So is there any hope left for snow to low elevations next week? It looks like the general prognosis is for potentially some precipitation but with a high freezing level?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
@cb97, for what part of the world are you asking about?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NW Alps, apologies I guess I could have specified that.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
@Polo thanks again for all of the information.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@polo, LOL 12z today compared to the last three runs
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
@Le Grand Renard, mid atlantic wrecking ball alert....expecting drama
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
Guide booked for 25th /26th weekend , should be a laugh ,sunglasses , snorkels or umbrellas?
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Thu 16-01-25 18:45; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
So in the above image, would such a pressure distribution mean air from the northwest into the Alps?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| Le Grand Renard wrote: |
| Guide booked for 25th /26th weekend , should be a laugh ,sunglasses , snorkels or umbrellas? |
Exactly, the charts/models/guesses look really "messy" next week:
Some blocking signals for Scandi bringing in easterly flows, up against the strengthening Atlantic - which will win out....my guess is the aAtlantic, however,..........
it could be a different Atlantic flow than "normal": Jet seems to be tracking more southerly? bringing colder flows? AND OR, will the jet pick up some influence of that massive Canadian freezing airmass and wing it over to us, obviously get moderated by the water mass of the Atlantic as it travels, but could be colder than normal for an Atlantic deluge?
GFS 12z - 850 Hpa at friday 24th, strenthening of the Jet and a steep gradient of temp profile at 850hpa potential collision and potential of rapid cyclogenesis (rapid reduction in pressures strong winds/thunderstorms/generally quite disruptive....... its only one run and its the GFS but there are some talking about 2 or 3 named storms towards the end of Jan for UK.....so who knows
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
oh boy, keep it coming
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Much is talked about the NW alps, but from the 25th onwards I'll be in Kitzbühel/Schladming (yes, also watching some races) and then from Feb 1st I'm planning to ski in the extreme opposite of NW alps: Slovenia. Any insights on how things are looking for that region? (and general insights on Slovenian ski resorts is also a welcome bonus)
Could I be better off looking for a plan B, given the current temperatures and prospects?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
The seasonal forecasts were for a front loaded winter. Perhaps this is the transition. The problem being that the Atlantic is at historically high temperatures.
Here in the UK temperatures are cooling down next week but will it be cool enough for snow where it is needed ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| Gustavo the Gaper wrote: |
Much is talked about the NW alps, but from the 25th onwards I'll be in Kitzbühel/Schladming (yes, also watching some races) and then from Feb 1st I'm planning to ski in the extreme opposite of NW alps: Slovenia. Any insights on how things are looking for that region? (and general insights on Slovenian ski resorts is also a welcome bonus)
Could I be better off looking for a plan B, given the current temperatures and prospects? |
I don't want to hijack the weather thread, but I have skied in Slovenia a few times. No big resorts but a good number of charming smaller resorts, but you really need transport to get around. Where are you heading? I've skied at Krvavec, Kranska gora, Vogel, Soriska & Stari vrh (closed this season) all of which are reasonably accessible from Bled. feel free to PM me / open / resurrect a Slovenia thread.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
@t44tomo, many thanks for the input! I'm looking into the biggest resorts I found there. Kranjska Gora, Vogel, Krvavec, Kanin/SellaNevea, Maribor (further east), Kobla...
I'll PM you so we don't hijack the thread indeed.
Forecasts for the SE alps a week from now are also all over the place at the moment; rain, dry, warm cold... who knows.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Le Grand Renard wrote: |
| Guide booked for 25th /26th weekend , should be a laugh ,sunglasses , snorkels or umbrellas? |
Are you back to SF?
Also, are you there from 15th March? I'm sure I owe you a beer or 2.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@TheMikeSki, I’ve messaged you .
Seems to be apparent now that a change is coming next week .
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Le Grand Renard wrote: |
@TheMikeSki, I’ve messaged you .
Seems to be apparent now that a change is coming next week . |
Any specific model(s) you've seen that suggest that? And would it be mostly for the NW alps or for the alps / Europe in general?
Perhaps my hourly tribal snow+cold dance ritual is working after all
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
@Gustavo the Gaper, Snow in the Tarentaise from 23 Jan down to around 900 meters continuing through the weekend but still quite warm so maybe a bit of yo-yoing with the SL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
@Ackie68, I think the 850Hpa charts show the temperature at 1500m so are a better guide than the 2m temp charts, what do those look like in comparison?
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
Tignes 850Hpa not so great temp wise!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Most overnight runs had lows coming in a bit too far SW....which is what the means are showing out to day 10......basically the atlantic hits the wall of high pressure to the E/NE and stalls east atlantic with lows tracking SW (spain) instead of preferred SE (italy) route which would drag down colder air. GFS was one of the poorer solutions, ECM probably best, but even then it has anything from 0 to +3 at 1500m.
Too much noise and time for any detail.....and these broadscale 1500m temps are not going to account for colder valleys, micro alps variance etc...though of course we would rather see sub 0 coming in with an extensive mass of cooler air but that is not likely with this pattern. Small pockets of high pressure to the north are helping to force the atlantic systems towards the alps but at the moment they are too far west, hence the warmer air.
It's going to take a few more days to get a handle on 23-27th likely path.....probably a good bet above 2000m though. Just need some shortwave disruption to head SE and you'd see the means drop. Models struggle with this combo every time (resilience of heights and depth of lows tracking east), so I hope they are over-doing the dartboard storms and underestimating the little bits of blocking assistance.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
Typical! My only skiing this year will be 23rd to 27th (Flaine). My fingernails will be down to the bone by Thursday next week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
@philhitch, I'm still trying to book something for w/c 25th - no idea which way to go, or whether to go at all! Sometimes it is easier if you have booked in advance as you are totally in the hands of the weather gods!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| philhitch wrote: |
| Typical! My only skiing this year will be 23rd to 27th (Flaine). My fingernails will be down to the bone by Thursday next week. |
Same, only it'll be the 26th-31st, staying in Samoens. If I don't down in stress sweat constantly refreshing the forecast before then
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Peter S wrote: |
| The problem being that the Atlantic is at historically high temperatures. |
Is it reasonable to assume these will come down at some point? If there is another thread for climate-related discussion let me know and I'll ask in there.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
I’ve been hoping it will but no sign of that. The reverse if anything.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=natlan
Last weeks big snow fall in northern England May have been enhanced by a warmer Atlantic allowing more moisture into the area of low pressure. But then the subsequent temperatures may have been modified upwards. It just didn’t seem to get as cold as it should have from that northerly airstream. Perhaps because the Arctic air was starting off warmer and being modified by a warmer North Atlantic, than say would have been the case 40 years ago.
The outlook from the GEFS model is looking unsettled for the end of January but no strong signal for cold at the moment.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sat 18-01-25 9:47; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
@Ackie68, gorgeous, hope they do them proud
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
+1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Ackie68, nice touch, but was he ever told he looks like Kevin Spacey?
More eastward progress on some overnight runs....but at a cost of higher snowline initially, the more these systems track across the alps the more rain to snow we'll get.
Eg GFS 06z now showing a dip from 2000m to 1400m FL NW on 24th, and then 2700m to 1100m on the 26th. Obviously this detail will keep changing as it's just one model one run at days 6-8, but I think the pattern is starting to firm up on rollercoaster scenario, which is better than dry and mild, wet and mild etc.... below 1800m will be important to see how each storm cycle finishes, rain to snow is fine as long as it's not all front loaded
Looking at the means for 24th....better odds now to get enough low pressure far enough east to bring snow to lower levels.
  
Here are the latest 1500m temps from the same 3 models Ops, again t+144 next thurs-friday.....fine margins
  
A few other models for same period, UKMO, ECM AI, ICON, KMA.....again marginal, from 0 to +4 depending on model and resort
   
At some point Ire/UK are likely to see severe weather warnings if these charts come off....next Saturday.....look at those dart board 945mb lows on KMA and ECM....and how many low's are spinning on the GFS (last)
  
Not a lot of value looking further out, but while I'm on a copy paste run....day 10 means for 28th....consistently showing the atlantic stalling, mild flow.....but we've seen how the short term can change quickly, so always a chance for something better
  
Last edited by After all it is free  on Sat 18-01-25 12:28; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
[quote="polo"]@Ackie68, nice touch, but was he ever told he looks like Kevin Spacey?
er no and Irv' was a big lad so wasn't going to suggest he did.
....Will be interesting how, if at all, the models work out that massive cold air mass over north America will materialise over this side. There does seem to be a plumb of it trying to barge in (looks like a solar flair), will get moderated by the Atlantic warmth but could just do the trick....but very fine margins and a long way off as you say.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
, the atlantic is going to be very strong as the deep cold exits US.
