 Poster: A snowHead
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| Astontech wrote: |
Maybe check back in around 7 days for advice on a resort. The risk with W/NW pattern is that lower areas may not fair so well. |
Aren’t the odds better for snow than rain down to lower areas with this type of pattern? I was under the impression that anything coming from the NW usually means snow with a low FL and cold temps.
Heading to NW Swiss Alps on the 24th so after the dry spell this sounds hopeful!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Astontech wrote: |
You're right, anticyclonic patterns can often persist for weeks.
It seems pretty nailed on we will have at least a week of dry, sunny weather with moderate mountain temperatures, sometimes mild.
We are just starting to develop a stronger signal for a possible breakdown around 20-21st, led by the ECM. At the moment this seems favoured to come from the NW/W.
Looking for this signal to develop over the weekend. If I was to wager, I would place my bets on PPN starting up again from the W/NW around Wed 22nd. |
Brilliant answer, thanks! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@cb97, generally, "weather" from the west is warmer due to the influence of the Atlantic.
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| leggyblonde wrote: |
| @cb97, generally, "weather" from the west is warmer due to the influence of the Atlantic. |
yes exactly.
It’s a bit of a catch 22 that the moisture for snow comes with a lower FL.
Unless moisture is coming from the N, perhaps via a polar low.
East is usually always colder as it is influenced by central, eastern and Northern Europe less so than west, but also drier.
The sweet spot is often that northern Austrian alps area around lech as it benefits from W/NW fronts still but has the cold since it is further east. Infact, I am sure it is home to the snowiest village in the world, I forget its name.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Astontech that makes sense, thanks for the explanation.
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| Astontech wrote: |
| leggyblonde wrote: |
| @cb97, generally, "weather" from the west is warmer due to the influence of the Atlantic. |
yes exactly.
It’s a bit of a catch 22 that the moisture for snow comes with a lower FL.
Unless moisture is coming from the N, perhaps via a polar low.
East is usually always colder as it is influenced by central, eastern and Northern Europe less so than west, but also drier.
The sweet spot is often that northern Austrian alps area around lech as it benefits from W/NW fronts still but has the cold since it is further east. Infact, I am sure it is home to the snowiest village in the world, I forget its name. |
Damüls
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Excellent conditions in La Rosiere today, albeit somewhat foggy at times.
U fortunately a few runs in to a 3 week trip I have dislocated my shoulder so can’t enjoy it.
Frustrating but it is what it is.
On the flip side if anybody wants a hugely discounted trip to Le Portetta half board in Courchevel starting next Saturday, please do let me know.
RRP £4800, I can pass it on for a discount!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Any trends showing up yet in the models for Jan 21/22? GFS has looked a bit all over the place from what I can tell.
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Wetterzentrale already has two models that use AI for medium range global forecasts.
Both GraphCastGFS and AIFS give lower temperatures and a lot of percipitation starting on the 21st January.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Trying to decide if it is worth booking somewhere for the last week of January. No sign of any new snow anywhere yet(?) and fancy a change from the usual high France resorts, also trying to keep the budget around £1,000. Looking through those figures for open runs makes me wonder if they are all actually very pleasant to ski on right now? My preferred resort of Sauxe d'oux, because of the village and I've never been there, is honest in only 53% open. but why is Alpe d'Huez showing such a poor result 35% open when they do actually seen to have decent snow depths?
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At a single point in time the number of open pistes is not necessarily a good indicator of piste conditions. A run might be closed for avalanche control, and have perfect snow conditions when it is opened by the pisteurs.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Dubmuffin, I wouldn't trust the skiresort website. AdH's own website shows 97/116 open pistes!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Dubmuffin wrote: |
| Trying to decide if it is worth booking somewhere for the last week of January. No sign of any new snow anywhere yet(?) and fancy a change from the usual high France resorts, also trying to keep the budget around £1,000. Looking through those figures for open runs makes me wonder if they are all actually very pleasant to ski on right now? My preferred resort of Sauxe d'oux, because of the village and I've never been there, is honest in only 53% open. but why is Alpe d'Huez showing such a poor result 35% open when they do actually seen to have decent snow depths? |
Not fully weather related, but I can vouch foor Sauze d'Oulx; stayed there for a couple weeks a couple years ago. I do recall quite a few slopes were closed (which was also a good thing at times; when it snowed, that meant skiing powder on an otherwise fine/safe slope, which is the best of both worlds - yes I know there's some caveats but in this case it was ok).
But Via Lattea is huge, the conditions in Sestriere were superb (though the connecting lifts do get busy - might be better to drive there in the morning), in Montgenevre too. I think even if many slopes are closed, you can still have a great time.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Just a reminder … this is the weather thread.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Dubmuffin, Alpe d'Huez pistes are in great shape above 2100m and will stay that way. Icy below but might go slushy later this week.
Back out now 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Gustavo the Gaper, Thanks for the reassurance  I might just go for it!
@franga, I've been watching the ECM (other models are available) on Wetterzentrale charts which look great for tracking the temps and precipitation. Looks like nothing much happening until 24th, then maybe quite cold and a bit snowy across the Alps if I have read it right?
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| Dubmuffin wrote: |
@Gustavo the Gaper, Thanks for the reassurance I might just go for it!
@franga, I've been watching the ECM (other models are available) on Wetterzentrale charts which look great for tracking the temps and precipitation. Looks like nothing much happening until 24th, then maybe quite cold and a bit snowy across the Alps if I have read it right? |
indeed...A long way off and some things are poised that way. There are signals for Scandi high and low pressure to the west towards to the end of Jan bringing in winds from the east with a massive cold air pool in the east.....so there is a signal from something interesting but this is every close to the continuation of the highs experiencing now with the milder airflows from the south or the Atlantic firing up again with mild westerly....all the play for and all a long way off..
Other models have lows in north atlantic and highs more eastern europe continuing the milder airflows
But hints are there for something colder......others spotted last week a potential breakdown in the high pressure pattern around 22nd-24th,,,,,,
keeping an eye out from 26th as wife going to Courmayeur....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Ackie68, Thanks - yes, I now see the UK weather forums are getting a bit excited too!
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| Dubmuffin wrote: |
| @Ackie68, Thanks - yes, I now see the UK weather forums are getting a bit excited too! |
Yes Scandi hi certainly excites the UK, not always the Alps
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Looking at the 30 day ECM heights indicates mild, MJO rotating back in to stormier milder phases (4 and 5) should mean mild unless extended 3 phase, the Stratosphere and troposphere coupling, with polar vortex winds strengthening all indicating the milder pattern through Jan...........who knows
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Hello fellow snowheads!
Anyone bright spark out there with intel on the long term insight on British Columbia? Been out here since late Dec but it’s been pretty dry and mild.
Based out in Revelstoke and never seen the base station so lacking in snow. Pretty decent conditions on top but getting rather packed out now. Hoping there might be some storms on the horizon 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It has been a few days of fantastic conditions here in La Rosiere. Maybe starting to get a bit icy/slushy in the next few days.
A real shame I got this injury but hopeful of a positive insurance claim to get back out in March.
Ahead of that, should I be looking to go high for the first 2 weeks of March, what is the general consensus for conditions then? Is it not quite in ‘spring skiing’ mode?
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| Astontech wrote: |
| ......should I be looking to go high for the first 2 weeks of March, what is the general consensus for conditions then? Is it not quite in ‘spring skiing’ mode? |
I'd have thought near enough optimum weeks - I wouldnt be looking high, unless you go super low, even Morzine will have snow  , end of March, Yes
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Astontech wrote: |
Ahead of that, should I be looking to go high for the first 2 weeks of March, what is the general consensus for conditions then? Is it not quite in ‘spring skiing’ mode? |
We skied the second week of March two out of the last 3 seasons. Once in Tignes and then last year in Montgenevre. Both years temperatures got high as the week went on. Probably low to mid teens last year.
I'd say conditions could be described as Spring like both years. By the end of the week in Monty last year the South facing slopes were getting pretty poor and I was glad we weren't heading out a week later.
Tignes held up very well the year we were there even though it was pretty mild and no fresh snow. Benefits of altitude.
Previous to that we were in Courchevel mid March and temps were in the high teens. Again snow held up well.
This year we're off to Flaine on March 8th. I expect plenty of snow but am prepared for anything.
Personally I'd avoid lower resorts once you're running into Mid March.
Also depends on how late you can leave it to book etc
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Too early to know. Might need to go high, could get lucky low. I've skied excellent conditions in March April and May as I suspect have lots of snowheads. Best as always to wait to book but never a harm to book high anyway?
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I may have missed a post but just wondering what has happened to Polo?
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You know it makes sense.
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| Garioch wrote: |
| I may have missed a post but just wondering what has happened to Polo? |
good question
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Garioch, he goes missing time to time he’ll be back , think like all of us and especially those who live in the mountains get very excited on the lead up to season start but once the snow’s there become more relaxed
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Poster: A snowHead
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we're on one of those moments where we need Polo back
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I was just thinking that lol. Jan 21-26 has looked all over the place to me the last few days. ECM looks like it still shows colder and wet, Snow-Forecast.com has shown everything from completely dry, lots of snow to low elevations, and lots of rain to high-ish elevations for that time period, all in the last day or two.
Not sure what to make of all of it- I’m still in the beginner stage of interpreting the various forecasts and models.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Ackie68, Yes all showing a slow change next week at some point , could still be pushed back , to a more fluid system but as always with warm air to the south slight changes in the directions of theses lows create massive differences in the snow /rain levels one minute it is below 1000m next it’s above 2000m .
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Le Grand Renard wrote: |
| @Ackie68, Yes all showing a slow change next week at some point , could still be pushed back , to a more fluid system but as always with warm air to the south slight changes in the directions of theses lows create massive differences in the snow /rain levels one minute it is below 1000m next it’s above 2000m . |
Exactly, still too far out but someone a while back suggested a breakdown in the highs around the 22nd! I'm not a expert in the SLs or an expert in anything,,,,,,just too micro for me.
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Like the renegade master.....yep boots were filled, and nothing really interesting has cropped up since the last big falls early Jan.
I thought I'd belatedly look back at how the long range models did for december, expecting to note the usual outcome that one or two models were close, most were hopeless and the average was far enough off to be meaningless. But no....turns out the multi-model forecast issued 7th Dec did very well for the whole month. The 2 different websites use different colour shading but can see how the forecast on the left got all the main features right, mid atlantic ridge, shallow med trough with northern arm of jet running iceland - norway. I did say at the start of dec that despite looking dry overall for alps, it was a promising forecast because of the mid atlantic centering of heights allowed room for NW flow at times.
 
Here's the latest jan forecast....the core heights now over europe, +NAO, SW-NE jet.....not good......but even if it's largely correct, it won't show the great early Jan snow, or anything transitory late on.
Either way I dont expect the long rangers to get 2 months in a row correct....that would be a first.
I have kept an eye on the output over the last week or so, as have my annual mates visit end Jan / early Feb.....think they've only seen one or two rainy days at 1300m in 8-9 years of visiting that week, and at least 7 with good fresh snow low down, albeit we switched to Les Arcs last year for a break and got all sorts of weather over the 4 days. Obviously you need luck over a short trip even mid winter, so will they be lucky again...
No idea at the moment. Sometimes you can just look at the GFS ensembles and say x or y is likely in 10 days time. But recently there has been so much disagreement in the day 5-7 timeframe across all models to render any output beyond that as suspect.
There are a number of big forces at play.....with a deep vortex lobe over NE Canada moving east into the atlantic and bumping up against the euro high. Some energy goes south to it's favourite place this winter, the azores-iberian corner of bad news. Some suggestions of the block holding firm, others have shown wedges of heights near Iceland or Norway.....basically a lot of noise.
Re. the strat, well it's probably going to be a record breaking year for average wind speed 25km above us. Most of the time the strat has been spinning at 90th percentile rates, with only brief weakening spells back to average. Latest chart shows one of those dips coming up into month end. So a minor help, given the largely unfavourable pattern at trop level.
In the near term, a selection of different models to illustrate the uncertainty
UKMO tues 21st shows the serial offender to our SW, trying to phase with north sea low and move NE. Will be messy, warm bump in temps likely.
ECM 23rd then shows the atlantic lows joining in, again from quite a flat angle, so may add to initial SW flow
GEM doesn't have that atlantic break thru, and returns quickly to mild and dry to 25th
I could post 5 more models and they would all have different outcomes beyond day 5-6, which is a bit unusual.
So not much I can say....there's no consistency yet on the means, and to be honest there's not much sign of proper cold, or heavy ppn yet in the near term.....but a lot to iron out first around 22-23rd before I will worry about end of Jan.
And just for amusement purposes / wishful thinking.....a few mid range Op runs do show the atlantic breaking in fully by the 26-28th.....quite a flat southerly jet, but given time of year and a slither of high pressure to our north, it would be widepsread heavy snow, albeit likely with that fluctuating snowline we get when systems arrive from the west.
First up JMA, just about makes it to the western end, while keeping a block to the E/NE. While ECM and it's AI version flatten everything.
  
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Thanks, Polo!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@polo, Thanks for the update!
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@polo, thanks! That JMA one looks breezy
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FAQ
