 Poster: A snowHead
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GEOSPHERE
According to the study, skiing in Vorarlberg will continue to be possible until at least 2050
Research by the Austrian meteorological service Geosphere Austria shows that skiing is more or less secured in medium and high ski resorts in Vorarlberg until 2050, provided that efforts against climate change continue. Artificial snow is becoming an increasingly important instrument.
Commissioned by Kleinwalsertal and Silvretta Montafon
After the meteorologically difficult winter last year, the ski areas Kleinwalsertal - Oberstdorf and Silvretta Montafon had a study carried out (independently of each other) into the climatic conditions for winter sports. They want to use this as a basis for future investments. Andreas Gapp, chairman of the Vorarlberg lift operators, told Der Standard: "We want to know soberly what awaits us in the future".
The answer has now been provided by Geosphere Austria. The research shows that skiing at medium and higher altitudes in Vorarlberg will remain possible for the next 30 years, despite climate change. The condition is that global efforts to combat climate change continue.
Little difference between scenarios until 2050
The scientists calculated three scenarios and compared them with the average data of the past 30 years. The scenarios are:
Realization of the Paris goals;
The fossil road without climate efforts;
A middle scenario.
Until 2050, there is hardly any difference between the three scenarios, but after that they will diverge considerably, depending on the path taken. For different altitudes, developments in natural snow, temperature, precipitation in winter and days with favorable conditions for snow cannons have been investigated.
Over the next 30 years, there will be a slight trend towards 10 to 25 percent more winter precipitation, but the number of days with snow cover will decrease by 5 to 10 percent, depending on the altitude. At an altitude of 1,500 metres in the Silvretta Montafon, a reduction in the snow cover duration from 134 days to 117 days can be expected in the middle scenario, while at 2,400 metres it decreases from 270 to 255 days. In the Kleinwalsertal - Oberstdorf region, the duration of snow cover at an altitude of 1,900 metres decreases from 219 to 209 days and at 1,100 metres from 129 to 116 days.
Artificial snow
At the same time, artificial snow is becoming increasingly important, on the one hand to keep the ski season plannable and on the other hand to secure the basic snow supply in the long term. The research shows that especially lower-lying areas have to count on a 10 percent reduction in the number of hours on which snowing can be done. At higher altitudes, this is 5 percent. For Andreas Gapp somewhat reassuring words, who sees in the figures that Vorarlberg can continue to offer the 'main activity' skiing for the next 30 years.
Longer summer season
At the same time, he acknowledges that the summer season is becoming increasingly important due to global warming. The number of days suitable for outdoor sports activities increases in the fall, which makes the summer season last longer. In recent years, many ski resorts have already taken the necessary steps in this direction, by stimulating year-round tourism with more and better summer facilities and activities on the mountain.
https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000188121/skifahren-in-vorarlberg-laut-studie-bis-zumindest-2050-weiter-moeglich
In Summarry
More Snow over Fewer days sounds like more POWDER 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Sounds like skiing in St Anton will be drawing to a close in 1 or 2 generations.
Ski now to the max. Before it's gone, forever.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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It’s not difficult to imagine that they have had to commission this study to persuade lenders to fund ski infrastructure that will need to be viable for 30 yrs?
It may also be a reason why gondolas are the lift of choice, because they are future proof and accessible to all in the summer.
It must be the case by now that all commercial ski areas are dependent on snow making for their key piste skiing runs.
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Worth pointing out that (as @stanton says) the study didn't cover the period beyond 2050, so there's no suggestion that skiing in the two resorts won't be possible after 2050 too.
10% reduction at lower levels by 2050 is less bad than I would have guessed. I suspect the figure is worse for many areas away from the (very wet / snowy) Vorarlberg.
For the Alps as a whole I think the question for many resorts will be whether it will be commercially viable as the reliance on / cost of snowmaking increases.
@Peter S, there are still some commercial ski areas with no or little snowmaking, but obviously that list is getting shorter with every passing year.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Peter S wrote: |
It may also be a reason why gondolas are the lift of choice, because they are future proof and accessible to all in the summer.
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Chairlifts also operate in Summer
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
Chairlifts also operate in Summer
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@BobinCH, Thankfully, much prefer travelling on chairlifts in summer too, far better being in the open than being cooked inside a gondola when it 25C+
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| Peter S wrote: |
| It may also be a reason why gondolas are the lift of choice, because they are future proof and accessible to all in the summer. |
I do not get your reasining except for Gondola City Transportation systems.
Why not traditional Chairs ??
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As I understand it the big resorts tend to prefer 10 person gondolas because they are currently the most cost effective lifts and require fewer staff because they are less prone to user loading and unloading errors! Some of the newest systems only require one operator.
I imagine the banks may be more confident lending on them because they are just as suitable for all users in both summer and winter.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Peter S wrote: |
I imagine the banks may be more confident lending on them because they are just as suitable for all users in both summer and winter. |
So are chairs - you can actually get more bikes (for example) on a chair than in a gondola, as long as you use the carrier on the back method.
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| Peter S wrote: |
| As I understand it the big resorts tend to prefer 10 person gondolas because they are currently the most cost effective lifts and require fewer staff because they are less prone to user loading and unloading errors! Some of the newest systems only require one operator. |
Now mostly installed along routes where rescue access is difficult is pretty much the main reason, keeping people warm and safer.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I did not think that the Voralberg was the Montafon,
I thought it was the road up from Bregenz to Warth.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@DrLawn, that’s the Bregenzerwald.
Vorarlberg (mind the R!) is everything west (vor) of the Arlberg, from north to south.
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| Peter S wrote: |
| I imagine the banks may be more confident lending on them because they are just as suitable for all users in both summer and winter. |
Banks are not lending for Winter Sport infra.. Nowadays its Private holding Holding Companys & investors, Manufacturers (Dopelmayr , etc) Financing..
| DrLawn wrote: |
I did not think that the Voralberg was the Montafon,
I thought it was the road up from Bregenz to Warth. |
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vorarlberg
http://apps.vorarlberg.at/lawinenmessstellen/
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You know it makes sense.
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| stanton wrote: |
| Peter S wrote: |
| I imagine the banks may be more confident lending on them because they are just as suitable for all users in both summer and winter. |
Banks are not lending for Winter Sport infra.. Nowadays its Private holding Holding Companys & investors, Manufacturers (Dopelmayr , etc) Financing..
| DrLawn wrote: |
I did not think that the Voralberg was the Montafon,
I thought it was the road up from Bregenz to Warth. |
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vorarlberg
http://apps.vorarlberg.at/lawinenmessstellen/ |
More of a problem in low altitude resorts like St Anton? Tons of investment going into Zermatt for example
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@stanton,
That’s interesting about the lift companies lending the money to build lifts. They are in a better position than the banks to understand the issues and the risks . I wonder what impact higher interest rates are having on projects ? Sorry about the thread drift.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@BobinCH, St.Anton is Am Arlberg, but not in Vorarlberg. And has had tons of investment last few years too, and more to come. And in Zermatt the investment is very much summer (non skiing) related (too)
Ski Arlberg came with a similar scientific report already a few years ago, showing that there is no decrease in snow around the Arlberg up till now.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Langerzug,
Thanks for putting me right on that, sorry.
I got into skiing in Damuls and those little places in that valley back in the 70's
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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So basically what they are saying is that the fact that sea and air temperatures are constantly rising and every summer it's hotter and hotter plus more reports around the globe of out of control wide spread fires and of course more ice shelfs at the poles are breaking, all this won't seriously affect temperatures in the mountains (10% less snow days at 1500 and 5% at 2000 m altitude. BTW Arlberg and Voralberg ski resorts aren't that high compared to the French mega resorts so more places will look like St. Anton this early March) and of course water and energy for snow cannons will still be readily available.
From the little I know and based on my scepticism, only 2 conclusions:
1. We need to ski like crazy while we still can because unfortunately it will become a thing of the past, like tiger and elephant hunting.
Which I am happy they are banned together with animal circus and marrying before 18 BTW. 
2. Any scientifical research with an economic backbone/horizon must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Remember American early science reports about the safety of sugar?
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/13/493739074/50-years-ago-sugar-industry-quietly-paid-scientists-to-point-blame-at-fat
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/13/well/eat/how-the-sugar-industry-shifted-blame-to-fat.html
I hope time will show I am wrong.
Edited to add this link to a parallel discussion on SH:
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=165735&highlight=
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@hsdee, many thanks and I wish things will stay the same as he declares but with all due respect IMO he is biased.
He is a self proclaimed specialist and on his website most recommendations come from marketing guys. He also published a similar study for Kirchberg, a lower destination. No doubt it helped local factors in receiving grants etc.
https://www.zukunft-skisport.at/
One of the comments to his YouTube video sent me to the Swiss study that reached an opposite conclusion.
Again, my scepticism leads me to more ski hols before it will all end, and not to arguments. I SO wish I am wrong...
Thanks, mate.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| drporat wrote: |
So basically what they are saying is that the fact that sea and air temperatures are constantly rising and every summer it's hotter and hotter plus more reports around the globe of out of control wide spread fires and of course more ice shelfs at the poles are breaking, all this won't seriously affect temperatures in the mountains (10% less snow days at 1500 and 5% at 2000 m altitude. BTW Arlberg and Voralberg ski resorts aren't that high compared to the French mega resorts so more places will look like St. Anton this early March) and of course water and energy for snow cannons will still be readily available.
From the little I know and based on my scepticism, only 2 conclusions:
1. We need to ski like crazy while we still can because unfortunately it will become a thing of the past, like tiger and elephant hunting.
Which I am happy they are banned together with animal circus and marrying before 18 BTW.
2. Any scientifical research with an economic backbone/horizon must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Remember American early science reports about the safety of sugar?
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/13/493739074/50-years-ago-sugar-industry-quietly-paid-scientists-to-point-blame-at-fat
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/13/well/eat/how-the-sugar-industry-shifted-blame-to-fat.html
I hope time will show I am wrong.
Edited to add this link to a parallel discussion on SH:
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=165735&highlight= |
to be honest, i think that before will come this moment, where we will be not able to skiing because of the lack of snow, there will come a skiing ban (even if there is enough snow) from some "green" goverments. Especially for Germany i think that it is not so far away
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@turms2, dreadful but not unreasonable if one takes into consideration the current public opinion in the West.
It's only a matter of time till Stop Oil protesters will glue themselves to frozen gondolas 
My hope rests within CH. They were reluctant to shut off in Covid 19 times due to economy reasoning.
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| drporat wrote: |
@turms2, dreadful but not unreasonable if one takes into consideration the current public opinion in the West.
It's only a matter of time till Stop Oil protesters will glue themselves to frozen gondolas
My hope rests within CH. They were reluctant to shut off in Covid 19 times due to economy reasoning. |
more possible i think is a street block in the way to XXX Ski Resort.
However i dont know what will happened in such a case.
In France the Police are not so polite with the "letzte Generation" as in Germany or AUT
And the drivers also.
On the other side, better this problem as the lack of snow...i think
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| drporat wrote: |
@turms2,
My hope rests within CH. They were reluctant to shut off in Covid 19 times due to economy reasoning. |
Yes, but mostly because the mountain cantons did not have the burden of the patients. After a weekend skiing and contaminating in Valais or Graubünden, they were taken to hospital in Zürich and München....(the lower cantons, like Zürich did not approve!)
Typical Swiss (cantonal) egocentrism, hiding behind their mountains...and so proud...
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