 Poster: A snowHead
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Last years rain in Dec was preceded by a few days of really strong fôhn as well. That hasn’t really happened this year.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I spy another warm spell in the run up to Xmas, but dry! Just looking at the GFS for Meribel and the Arlberg show it though 
FL up to 3700m on Mon 18th, dropping rapidly on the 20th to the valley! Still a way off but looks broad agreement on the models, albeit some subtle differences.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@kitenski, yes all the uk boys talking about this , high in place with warm air up high but will with the short days cold in the valleys nights and nice days skiing but much excitement (white Christmas) building for a cold northerly from the 20th/23rd
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There was a river flowing down Verbier high street last night. Worse to come next few days. Then back to business from next Friday. Snow pack will be a mess below 2300m so aim high to take advantage of the massive early snow depths at altitude
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| @kitenski, yes all the uk boys talking about this , high in place with warm air up high but will with the short days cold in the valleys nights and nice days skiing but much excitement (white Christmas) building for a cold northerly from the 20th/23rd |
My worry is that at this time of year (late December / early January) high pressure seems to persist and hang around for a while.
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A warm, dry spell is generally not a problem. It usually comes with low humidity and clear skies, so snowmelt is minimal and pistes tend to refreeze each night. Plus at this time of year most slope aspects don't receive much direct sunlight.
It's warm, humid spells (such as this one) which are far more problematic.
If high pressure gets "stuck" and hangs around for a long time then obviously you start wanting snow at some point, because pistes become very hard packed or off-becomes tracked out etc. Plus even slow melting has a cumulative effect. (If there is no snow on the ground to start with, obviously high pressure is very unwelcome!)
The dry period modelled for midweek onwards looks to be relatively long lasting by this unsettled autumn's standards, but you can see that modelled temperatures are moving up and down (cold at first, then warm, then probably cold again). That means that the pressure pattern / position of the high is moving around still, so the weather pattern is not stuck.
In short, I think it's too early to say with any confidence that there'll be significant new snow in the days leading up to Christmas, but neither is there a strong signal for persistent high pressure.
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@franga, yep your right once they are in they take some shifting but all the signs are this won’t be around for too long , this blast from the north keeps cropping up again on GFS 06 but it’s still way out .
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Well here’s Meteo Tarentaise NOT sugar coating the next few days for the Tarentaise area , through google translate .
   ️ ️FORECAST OF THE UPCOMING EPISODE, HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH ALTITUDE, RAW WATER FLOWS, FLOODING AND HEAVY SNOWFALLS!
️ ️ ️
As announced a few days ago, the situation will significantly worsen tonight with the arrival of an episode that could prove very important, with a strong new flood risk in the valley, associated with heavy rains for more than 3 days at least, an LPN that will rise in altitude, which should cause a strong meltdown of the snowcoat, an explosive cocktail, which will be watched very closely.
While in the high mountains, heavy snowfall is expected with possibly record snowfall for the period above 2600/2800m of altitude!
When will the episode start?
Starting tonight, the first rainfall will concern us, it should arrive to the west of our counties from 7/8 p.m. to spread to all of Tarantaise and Upper Tarantaise around 10 p.m.
At first weak, they will intensify very quickly from 22/23h.
When will the episode end?
The episode finale should take place between Wednesday night and Thursday!
A long and intense episode, which could prove memorable in terms of the intensity of the rainfall but especially in the duration of this episode, which should therefore last more than 3 days at least... with certainly calms from time to time but an unusual episode...
How many mm expected on this episode?
The final scenarios still differ a bit, but the intensity of this episode is no longer in doubt, it will be very important.
On average scenarios we start from an average of 100-120mm, some of the more intense scenarios go as far as 130/150mm, with peaks at 160/180mm approaching Mont Blanc and Beaufortain!
What will this give LPN level?
With the arrival of rainfall tonight, snow should be disrupted early to 1800/1900m then very quickly to 2200m over the next night, locally up to 2300 see 2400m tomorrow morning when you wake up.
On Monday morning, the LPN will stay around 2200m, the same throughout the day and afternoon.
In the evening, the LPN will stay around 2200m, locally 2000/2100m under the highest intensity.
Tuesday morning waking up, the incredible softness remains relevant with an LPN that will cap around 2200/2300m altitude, below, still water pipes on the program!
We have to wait until Tuesday night to hope for a decrease in the LPN around 1700/1800.
During the night, although it remains to be confirmed, the LPN continues to descend at 1400/1500m altitude, however, the intensity is significantly lower than in recent days.
Wednesday, snow could be 1300m then 800/900m by the end of the day, and maybe lower Thursday, but that requires confirmation of scenarios in the next few hours.
However the cumulus should remain very low.
When will the episode be at the peak?
The highest intensity is expected between tonight 11pm and tomorrow 8pm.
Over 70/80mm could fall on this 24h stretch!
A regrowth of intensity could take place later on Tuesday into the afternoon.
Flood side?
Flooding will unfortunately be feared in the valley with an explosive cocktail between the heavy rains and the melting of the snowcoat, otherwise MF launches an orange vigil tonight and for several days...
Mudslide and landslides can also be feared at hazardous places.
Note also a very strong risk of avalanche for 1 week!
The situation in the high mountains?
Heading towards a memorable high mountain episode with heavy snowfall for several days, the snowcoat height above 2600/2800m could be exceptional given the time!
Expecting more than 1m of snow above 2500m and up to 1m20/1m50 above 2800/3000m.
The snowcoat at the station?
Unfortunately, it should suffer enormously up to 2000m altitude for 48h, current snow thicknesses should limit the breakage but below 1600/1800m, you could start from very low to zero!
You will have to wait Tuesday to Wednesday night for a re-whitening.
And after that?
As of Friday, a significant improvement with the introduction of significantly more anticyclonic weather, with possible heat inversions! To be confirmed...
Several tracks will be launched in the next hours and days to follow the evolution of this episode, which is set to be memorable...
Have a good day everyone, and be very safe!
Roman VIVIANI by Météo Tarentaise
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )
Map from the ARPEGE model showing the possible cumulus, be careful not to fall for the letter! (Weather)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Rob Mackley, same story on Chamonix Meteo. Complete washout down low with record snow depths expected at altitude
https://chamonix-meteo.com/
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Days and days of heavy rain coming in France, up to nearly 3000m.
Nudging +10c on Mon at 1000m -- at night.
That is summer weather -- in December.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Whitegold, Never change
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Makes it easier to block though...........
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Days and days of heavy rain coming in France, up to nearly 3000m.
Nudging +10c on Mon at 1000m -- at night.
That is summer weather -- in December. |
Nah, that's summer weather, in Manchester.
Here it's sunny in summer. 
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You know it makes sense.
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Looks promising for Val Thorens and Tignes according to Bergfex, whilst next weekend Verbier and Zermatt (for example) at resort level don’t get anything like the 15c to 18c forecast elsewhere.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Blimey @Snow&skifan - where’s forecast to get 15°-18°?
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Poster: A snowHead
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VT bound on the 16th. And feeling very pleased with the decision.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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That’s nuts. If it actually happens there shouldn’t be too much (more) damage as it’s down to a big high pressure area so no rain and not much wind (and those are valley temps in Cham, right - FL is up at 3000m in most places in the day?).
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Where would an air mass that warm come from in mid December, the Atlantic or Sahara?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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This time of the year days are short and the sun doesn’t get too high lots of valleys will be in the shade for plenty of the day , the temperatures in the valleys won’t be that high , expect temperature inversion .
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Someone needs to call the Guinness World Records.
Chamonix town (1000m) may break its temperature record for December.
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@under a new name - from Bergfex:
“ The weather forecasts are updated every 6 hours, in the PRO version every 30 minutes.
The forecasts are finstated by the entral pfat fir Moteorologie und Gal wamike AMONE
model, long-term forecasts (up to 9 days) with the ECMWF model.
Data for the short-term forecast (next few hours) are generated using the INCA of ZAMG and are updated for bergfex every 30 minutes as well.”
So that would suggest ECM for 18/12.
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Meteo blue showing 20 to 30 cm of SNOW, for today in Zermatt. Big difference from Cham.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Mon 11-12-23 17:15; edited 1 time in total
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I was recommended Bergfex on Snowheads, by experts (not you or I).
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Even very short term, today! A max of 1c versus a max of 8c.
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@andy from embsay, my general understanding is that Meteoblue do 2 major things. They synthesize from a number of models, including their own proprietary ones - and p'raps more importantly in the mountains AIUI - they adjust/take account of local topography including altitudes.
https://content.meteoblue.com/en/about-us
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You know it makes sense.
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@under a new name, Meteoblue are my favourite app (recommended by you, I think). I love their animated maps, especially on my iPad.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Snow&skifan, I think Bergfex is getting its 18/12 temps from the ECM op run from last night. GFS has the same period at about seasonal average, so let’s hope ECM is an outlier!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
@Snow&skifan, I think Bergfex is getting its 18/12 temps from the ECM op run from last night. GFS has the same period at about seasonal average, so let’s hope ECM is an outlier!
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Thanks, all the above is very informative from posters.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@andy from embsay, yes, I like them a lot too and they are very responsive to technical questions 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Doesn't look great on webcams at the moment. I can see heavy rain in St Johann in Tirol and St Anton. Tignes Le Lac looks to be right on the rain snow boundary at 2100m, maybe sleeting there. Hope this passes through quickly!
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For a week with the kids starting on Saturday whats the verdict on resorts who will fair the best with current weather?.
It looks like ADH is taking a pounding on the cam but the three valley area holding up better?.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I am in Val Thorens and can confirm rain upto 2500m.
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| Moorzee10 wrote: |
| I am in Val Thorens and can confirm rain upto 2500m. |
Thanks for reply, as bad as forecast? I'm guessing if its raining at 2500 Meribel is getting washed away!
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It was bad this morning but on and off now. Only the low lifts open today due to the winds. We called it a day at lunchtime.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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In Méribel right now. Some slopes have water/brown patches e.g. down from Saulire into Motarret but the slopes down to Méribel village where I skied most today are holding up okay. Hopefully not too much damage tonight/tomorrow.
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Full on snowing in Val Thorens village now.
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FAQ
