@stuarth, it would be interesting to see the equivalent analysis for North America (and for that matter southern hemisphere).
As you imply, there is considerable variance in the data, though on this data the year-to-year unpredictability looked constant throughout the data set, it was only the underlying trend (regression lines) which changed.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
50yrs of evidence from 4.5bn years...or one ten-thousandth of 1%, I'll leave it another couple of million years before I draw my conclusions
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Dravot, the paper under discussion covered 600 years rather than 50 - but I am sure they would be very interested in your data for the preceding period.
This paper very specifically was about snow cover in Alpine regions, and they found a new source of evidence that extended the record several centuries back from the first on-the-ground measurements which started in the eighteenth century. But those looking at measures like average summer temperature which can be deduced from tree ring spacing have evidence stretching back into the millions of years (there are fossil trees whose rings can be studied).
I am currently in Westendorf. North facing Choralm has plenty of snow but it is heavy. South facing HochBrixen or Hoche Salve is almost totally green. Temp display at midstation this afternoon said 11C.
Predicted 12c Tue and Wed before snow on Thur and Fri.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:
if it had been cooler just imagine the accumulations
We might have been on for a fairly epic season ...
That’s the problem with a warming climate and we see it all the time on the mountains in the UK where snow events are becoming more and more marginal. If the source air were cooler then it would probably hold less moisture?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Dravot wrote:
50yrs of evidence from 4.5bn years...or one ten-thousandth of 1%, I'll leave it another couple of million years before I draw my conclusions
Humans weren’t pumping out carbon dioxide/burning fossil fuels in vast quantities for most of those 4.5bn years, so it’s a bit unrealistic to suggest you can compare the “natural” planetary cycle with now, when we can’t deny we are altering it through human activity. There’s a still a chance to limit warming to less than 2 degrees (most scientists seem to think 1.5 is unreasonable now, but 1.8 possible with effort).
After all it is free
After all it is free
It's like the Aral sea in French reservoirs this winter
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We were in Serre Chevalier on the 22 January for a week and had a fab time. Soft grippy snow, wall to wall sunshine and cold temps made for a cracking week of skiing. Next stop Val Thorens on the 27th March for a week !
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
rambotion wrote:
@jellylegs, a pretty denialist comment there, sure there is always random variability, but this part of an obvious long term trend and only those with vested interests would really dispute it:
In the Alps seasonal (November–May) mean snow depth, recorded in several hundreds of in-situ snow depth observations, experienced an 8.4% decline per decade between 1971 and 2019, with a parallel reduction of 5.6% per decade in snow cover duration*
There were few years in the early 90's when conditions were terrible. Many said it was the beginning of the end for Alpine skiing. Then normality resumed.
2010 was a bad season, and again in 2015.
I'm not a denialist, more a realist.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Worst snow in living memory in French Northern Alps
Quote:
WORST SNOW SINCE HISTORICAL WINTER 1963/1964
▶ Tomorrow is February 21. At this period, snow depths are normally at their peak on the 1000/1500 meter section.
This year, it is all very different. The situation is "misleading" at first sight because, thanks to the anticyclonic sequence, traces of snow still resist very low on the less sunny slopes up to 400/500 meters in places.
▶ But, if we take a step back and analyze (through all the available data) the snow depths over the whole of the Northern Alps: until today we had the worst snowfall for the period since winter 2010/2011. Except that, precisely, snowfall had returned that winter on February 20/21.
This is not the case this year ... on the contrary it thawed at the Aiguille du Midi (3842 meters) today for the first time since October.
▶ From tomorrow, we will therefore have to go back to the incredible winter of 1963/1964 (which marked the minds of the oldest) to find traces of worse snow cover at this time of year (locally a little closer) in the Northern Alps.
The outlook for the next few days is not good:
https://www.meteoalpes.fr/bulletin/alpes-du-nord/
The weather will noticeably cool down, but with the return of humidity, the snow cover on the northern slopes will be more clearly broken down at low altitude.
Courage to all mountain professionals who suffer, after farmers this summer, the weather hazards.
Before that tomorrow TUESDAY: A great sun on the program (rare grayness in Isère in the morning) and always a noticeable mildness with stable temperatures. Fine high clouds will begin to return from the southwest at the end of the day.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@jellylegs, to argue that this isn't part of a long term trend is to be a denialist. Improved snowmaking has helped make some recent seasons seem to not so bad relative to some poor ones in the early 1990s. Is it the beginning of the end for alpine skiing, depends really on your definition. Will Mont Chery, Les Gets still be expected to offer unbroken skiing from mid December to end of March skiing in 20 years time? Probably not. Will Les Grands Montets? Probably
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
rambotion wrote:
@jellylegs, to argue that this isn't part of a long term trend is to be a denialist. Improved snowmaking has helped make some recent seasons seem to not so bad relative to some poor ones in the early 1990s. Is it the beginning of the end for alpine skiing, depends really on your definition. Will Mont Chery, Les Gets still be expected to offer unbroken skiing from mid December to end of March skiing in 20 years time? Probably not. Will Les Grands Montets? Probably
If you enjoy skiing, do as much as you can before 2030.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
rambotion wrote:
@jellylegs, to argue that this isn't part of a long term trend is to be a denialist. Improved snowmaking has helped make some recent seasons seem to not so bad relative to some poor ones in the early 1990s. Is it the beginning of the end for alpine skiing, depends really on your definition. Will Mont Chery, Les Gets still be expected to offer unbroken skiing from mid December to end of March skiing in 20 years time? Probably not. Will Les Grands Montets? Probably
I'm not denying that its part of a long-term trend. The trend probably started at the end of the last Ice Age!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
and rapidly accelerated, due to the results of the rise of industry in the second half of the 19th century!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@jellylegs, the current global trend is between 0.15C and 0.2C warming per decade. That certainly isn't a trend that started at the end of the last ice age and you know it. I thought that anthropogenic GW deniers had all but been replaced by delayers but clearly not. I suppose Piers Corbyn still has some followers
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The actual snow depths for the resorts we visit in the french Alps have over the last 10years have had a reasonable constant depth of snow fall, yes their has been the odd years which have been below that average (I.e mainly 2014-2015 season, 2020-2021 season and this season has been the worst snowfall to date in the last 10 yrs)
Couple this years lack of snow the with the warm/wet spell between Christmas and the new year we are left with basically very little base. It’s generally pants out there.
No doubt the next 10 yrs will follow suit with a similar pattern with 7-8 good decent years and the odd here and there crap years. It’s just the way it is, always has been and always will be. Don’t worry folks, be happy there will always be skiing
To give you an idea our usual haunts yearly annual snow depths over the last 10 yrs:-
2012-13: 481cm
2013-14: 297cm
2014-15: 194cm
2015-16: 290cm
2016-17: 343cm
2017-18: 494cm
2018-19: 389cm
2019-20: 324cm
2020-21: 165cm
2021-22: 348cm
2022-23: 80cm (this yr currently snow fall depth) add in the warm/rain event in December-jan and we got a very crap year, next year no doubt will be back with a bang a over 400cm ️
@depthjunkie, …well your SH handle is consistent with the high quality data you have collected and show here - very useful.
But … I don’t share your optimism re DH skiing - it’s by no means a foregone conclusion that we will see a similar pattern.
the lift owners are VERY stretched financially and are very worried about financial viability - small commune-operated will potentially more resilient but will still suffer from elevated freezing levels. Think Jougne - rusting gear, seldom open. Arolla - broke one of their two piste machines (suspension casting failure) a few years ago and had a big problem replacing it. Contrast Vercorin, huge investment in new lift about 15 years ago and doing OK, since north facing and a nice, well loved small area - doing OK, and high enough for reasonable cover and people rush there when there’s a dump.
The big issue is yes there will be skiing (although some models show Alps possible snow free at accessible levels within lifetime of our Groms) but likely to be characterised by (1) ski touring and not DH, since most of the resort gear will be rusting and idle at snow-free levels; (2) a rush to the snow when it erratically comes rather than booked vacations; (3) smaller community-run installations.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
jellylegs wrote:
rambotion wrote:
@jellylegs, to argue that this isn't part of a long term trend is to be a denialist. Improved snowmaking has helped make some recent seasons seem to not so bad relative to some poor ones in the early 1990s. Is it the beginning of the end for alpine skiing, depends really on your definition. Will Mont Chery, Les Gets still be expected to offer unbroken skiing from mid December to end of March skiing in 20 years time? Probably not. Will Les Grands Montets? Probably
I'm not denying that its part of a long-term trend. The trend probably started at the end of the last Ice Age!
We're still in an Ice Age. I think you mean 'end of the last Glacial Maxima'.
The actual snow depths for the resorts we visit in the french Alps have over the last 10years have had a reasonable constant depth of snow fall, yes their has been the odd years which have been below that average (I.e mainly 2014-2015 season, 2020-2021 season and this season has been the worst snowfall to date in the last 10 yrs)
Couple this years lack of snow the with the warm/wet spell between Christmas and the new year we are left with basically very little base. It’s generally pants out there.
No doubt the next 10 yrs will follow suit with a similar pattern with 7-8 good decent years and the odd here and there crap years. It’s just the way it is, always has been and always will be. Don’t worry folks, be happy there will always be skiing
To give you an idea our usual haunts yearly annual snow depths over the last 10 yrs:-
2012-13: 481cm
2013-14: 297cm
2014-15: 194cm
2015-16: 290cm
2016-17: 343cm
2017-18: 494cm
2018-19: 389cm
2019-20: 324cm
2020-21: 165cm
2021-22: 348cm
2022-23: 80cm (this yr currently snow fall depth) add in the warm/rain event in December-jan and we got a very crap year, next year no doubt will be back with a bang a over 400cm ️
Which resort(s) are you referring to here?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Here's a historic for the French Alps going back to the 1970s
Below 1800/2000m conditions are currently worse than the bad 1992/93 winter.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Dravot wrote:
50yrs of evidence from 4.5bn years...or one ten-thousandth of 1%, I'll leave it another couple of million years before I draw my conclusions
I wont even need to wait till the end of this post to know you are a ****ing idiot.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
haggishunter wrote:
Dravot wrote:
50yrs of evidence from 4.5bn years...or one ten-thousandth of 1%, I'll leave it another couple of million years before I draw my conclusions
I wont even need to wait till the end of this post to know you are a ****ing idiot.
My opinion doesn't align with Dravot but I don't think that gives me or anyone the right to be offensive.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Quote:
a rush to the snow when it erratically comes
Sounds like Cairngorm. Sounds entirely plausible.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
rambotion wrote:
@jellylegs, the current global trend is between 0.15C and 0.2C warming per decade. That certainly isn't a trend that started at the end of the last ice age and you know it. I thought that anthropogenic GW deniers had all but been replaced by delayers but clearly not. I suppose Piers Corbyn still has some followers
Hey @rambotion, what's with all the insinuations? You could make your point without putting me down all the time?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Rambotion called out your statement, that the current global warming trend is something that started at the end of the last Ice Age, for what it is, nonsense.
The current global warming trend markedly increased in the early 1980s.
For someone to post such nonsense on a skiing forum is quite frankly, staggering.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
If anyone doubts that something major has been happening in the last fifty years re snow & climate, then they should go and look at the La Mer de Glace glacier levels - which is just truly staggering as from the train station down to the glacier are a series of signs showing where the glacier was at various points this century.
I read one account that said the difference since 1988 was 370 steps!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
With the Glaciers around for example Chamonix and Saas Fee retreating less sun is reflected and with less ice generally around the villages/towns presumably the local micro climate in these places naturally would get warmer regardless of the bigger picture?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Pictures of recent glacier retreat are shocking. Quite young instructors in a few places have pointed out how much smaller they have become even since "their young day".
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
We used to use the expression "glacial pace of change" to indicate something barely perceptible.....
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Weathercam wrote:
If anyone doubts that something major has been happening in the last fifty years re snow & climate, then they should go and look at the La Mer de Glace glacier levels - which is just truly staggering as from the train station down to the glacier are a series of signs showing where the glacier was at various points this century.
I read one account that said the difference since 1988 was 370 steps!
Same here (unsurprisingly I guess as it's global warming)
For anyone that has been visiting Whistler over the years, have you now noticed that 3 of the 4 entrances into Whistler bowl have become either very hard or inaccessible? For those who have not visited Whistler, Whistler bowl contains a small (and getting smaller) glacier and is a very large part of the terrain, or access to terrain, on Whistler peak? I am wondering how long the remaining entrance will be possible? This has happened really quickly
On Blackcomb, you'll notice there is no longer a T-bar from the glacier to 7th Heaven because the receding glacier meant it got too unstable/steep. This has happened really quickly
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Fri 24-02-23 19:47; edited 2 times in total
As always I’m more half full rather than half empty but as all the long range forecasts tease and then push back the promised snow I’m now starting to lose faith . let’s face it we are the point of the winter where you record the largest snow depths, they ain’t that deep . Even if it’s cold the sun starts to pack a punch in march , I think April is going to be very sketchy .
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Rob Mackley, …it’s a matter of judgement at this stage, and taking all the evidence into account, I would agree. Very sketchy. The systems which are needed for fall in the Alps is cold air ballooning south-west from the continental land mass, being hit by moisture laden depressions tracking across UK and then France and hitting that cold air mass. That’s not been happening. And last summer we saw major disruption of the normal patterns of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, giving us the high temps in UK. It’s easy to think of ‘this is happening in my place’ but all weather is the result of the patterns of circulation in the hemispheres - heat transfer, moisture movement, precipitation patterns all result from the dynamic circulatory patterns. And those patterns are all over the place. Really disrupted. I liked the old weather bulletins on the BBC, which showed the isobars…
Look at this…a very early BBC TV weather bulletin - note the mention of cold fronts and the depression forming over iceland - a very typical maritime scenario for the UK and a pattern which brings snow to the Alps in the winter. There are no longer discussions of depressions and patterns - just ‘rain moving from North to South….’. This is all based on close work with audience reactions…the more technical elements of bulletins showing patterns have been replaced by ‘this is what will be happening to you where you are’. That not entirely the case, but it’s the direction of travel on BBC radio and television.
This is REALLY helpful in knowing what kind of patterns are prevailing, and whether it’s likely that we will get further snowfall in the Alps. Right now, the snowfall is being generated by previous untypical flows of air up from the Mediterranean, looping up to hit the colder air over the Alps. That’s good, moisture laden air, but it comes with higher temperatures, which raises the freezing level and brings rain which is killing the snow up to about 2000m.
Last year we had low depths, but cold air temps dec-mar, which preserved the pack, and then some occasional dumps in late march and april. On decent remaining base there was some fun to be had, but only for those who chased the snow, as we did. Vercorin in early April (2-12) was just excellent for both piste and off-piste fun, but you had to be there…ie ready to jump to where the snow was…
No bombast or a craziness, just a careful considered look at the evidence
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Yep very few storms from the north west . There is so little depth up high , rocks you wouldn’t normally see in between pistes are visible , the crevasses on the glaciers haven’t filled in . As my guide for 20 odd tears said to me the other day unless we get a big storm soon you’ll be going mountain biking in April not skiing .
BTW I was in Grimentz last few days in March when the new snow came , good wasn’t it , only difference was it had a base to fall upon .
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Rob Mackley, ….yes it indeed was good, and the orientation of the villages in the Val D’Anniviers means that the snow holds up well during the day even when air temps rise.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
there will always be skiing
️
