 Poster: A snowHead
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| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| @Roscoe, interesting name, not a Midlake reference is it? |
I was thinking Dukes of Hazzard.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| porkpiefox wrote: |
| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| @Roscoe, interesting name, not a Midlake reference is it? |
I was thinking Dukes of Hazzard. |
That pretty much was the instigator!! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| polo wrote: |
@Chaletbeauroc, it's the way most sites display precipitation / snow equivalence....10mm rain = 10cm snow depending on altitude. That forecast was for avoriaz so all snow.
Latest raw data from GFS 06z below. Main info here is temp at 850hpa (1500m) 7th column across, then the 2 precip columns can be added together, and ISO (freeze level) to the far right (deduct about 200m for expected snowline)
Showing about 35cm below 1500m by monday evening. WFR (short range model) is less snowy, with maybe 20cm at 1000m.
The GFS precip number in mm will be similar in cm's on snowforecast and other apps in a few hours when they get updated. |
Same forecast (I know it's a week off) also shows quite a bit of precipitation on the 14th (Saturday) with the isotherm at > 2,000 metres.
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| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| Roscoe wrote: |
| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| @Roscoe, interesting name, not a Midlake reference is it? |
Nope - real name is Ross but have been called Roscoe since I was small. So just a nickname thats stuck. |
Oh Ok. Well there’s a song named the same as your nickname by a band called Midlake. It’s probably their best song too. |
Will give it a listen :thumbsup:
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@franga, yes it does, but I wouldn't worry about it ......as you said way too far for an accurate rain / snow forecast, while looking at the ensembles you can see the GFS 06z Op run is an extreme warm outlier vs it's ensembles on that date, and when you aslo look at GEM and in particular ECM, they have a very different pattern, much colder.
Bottom line ignore for now, but if it continues to show up and gets other models on board it might become an issue
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 6-01-23 12:04; edited 1 time in total
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@franga, does that mean “lots of rain below 2000m” if it pans out?
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Yes BUT I was just making an observation - @polo’s response above is very clear. GFS is an outlier (much warmer than other models) at this stage … and I think it was also an outlier for this weekend a couple of weeks back. Don’t worry about it. Snow incoming.
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I'd always look at the mean pressure anomalies at that range, as below.
The main indicator is the black line running thru france, which is the average position of expected isobar.
GFS isobar is clearly tilting SW-NE near the alps, meaning high pressure is too close to france, with the main area of low pressure to the west, we draw up warm air.
GEM is slightly better with a flat westerly isobar, which would still bring in mild air, probably a 1700m FL as the source of the air is still south atlantic.
ECM (the most accurate model) however tilts the flow more NW-SE, pulling down cold air from north atlantic and a likely 1200m FL (guessing)
So you'd have to favour the middle ground right now, but as they are all different, we can expect more changes over the coming weekend
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| polo wrote: |
| Wife said insta page mentioned not a full opening until next weekend which I find hard to believe. Can't see why there won't be a lot of runs open by tuesday. Anyway I'll be on the ground mon-tues and skinning up if that's the only way. |
Is that for LG? If so that'd be annoying, but imho a bit of overcautiousness on their part would be a welcome tone change for their usually overoptimistic social feed.
Now thinking about taking a day off next week to enjoy (and maybe yes, get the skins out too).
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@patrick!, yep, similar announcement on GM thread
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Quick question for any ski tourers reading this.....my kid (2m tall) got some BlackCrows touring skis for xmas and now I have to find suitable bindings. Without derailing the thread too much are the Salomon Shifts (he did the research) a good bet, and what's the difference between MNC 13 and MNC 10 etc? His skis are 188 long and 9.6cm waist, so guess he needs 100mm binding brakes?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@polo, I have shifts and they seem to work well for me and the Mrs. the differences is DIN only I reckon? Worth a chat to Jon at https://thepisteoffice.com/ who can also supply and fit.
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@patrick!, they ain't going to suddenly open all runs after 20-30cm new snow on zero (or close to zero) base. It takes several days of piste maintenance, snow production (to create a better base) and making the accessible areas safe, poles, fences, nets etc in place before they'd open them. fresh unconsolidated snow would get skied back to bare ground in no time at all.
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You know it makes sense.
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MNC 13 has a top DIN setting of 13, MNC 10 goes up to 10 is my understanding
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| polo wrote: |
| Quick question for any ski tourers reading this.....my kid (2m tall) got some BlackCrows touring skis for xmas and now I have to find suitable bindings. Without derailing the thread too much are the Salomon Shifts (he did the research) a good bet, and what's the difference between MNC 13 and MNC 10 etc? His skis are 188 long and 9.6cm waist, so guess he needs 100mm binding brakes? |
@polo, Shifts are excellent if you want to tour, but also want a downhill binding for the down. Heavier than a pure touring binding. I now ski them all of the time. Only difference between the two versions is DIN setting - MNC 13 7-13, MNC 10 4-10. MNC 10 for lighter skiers.
Bob
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Fri 6-01-23 13:31; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, yes the Shifts are good I’ve got some, get 13 for him as he sounds big and heavy so he might need his DIN settings on say 9 so the 10 version would not be the best option of the two, 13 would be better. See what Jon says.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Thx for all replies....it's going to be fairly light touring in the area, and he loves to bounce / fly down hills, he's 82kg so need something secure
I'll go with the 100mm 13's, some good discounts out there
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@polo, yeah they are definitely robust and great for the downhill they are much lighter than the Marker F12 Tours I had but don’t feel any less secure than them.
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The announcement yesterday was basically “we need a couple of days to get everything pisted and sorted so don’t expect 100% of area open immediately- but we’ll do our best and open stuff up as soon as we can”
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Grand Massif (similar location, altitudes and current conditions) were even more cautious with their social media announcement: "The weather forecasts do not offer any certainty as to a positive evolution with regards to opening our ski area."
Weathertoski also sounding cautious: "Significant snow is forecast for most French resorts on Sunday/Monday, but it probably won’t be enough to get the worst-affected areas back up and running." It also specifically mentions Morzine as the worst-affected major resort.
Personally I think they are both sounding a bit (too) pessimistic, but I guess it makes sense for ski areas not to over-promise at this stage.
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@denfinella, I gave up reading that guy years ago, you'd swear morzine was the only place that gets rain....he's obsessed
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@andy from embsay, I see she hasn't answered your question, and responded waspishly to Morzine Source's reasonable comment.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| franga wrote: |
Les Gets FB page has the following announcement :
Chery cable car remains open for veterinarians until Sunday evening |
The poor vets have to hike up after that I suppose.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@andy from embsay, I think she got her commas wrong. Not great sub-editing! But yet again sensationalist nonsense from uk MSM. And for why? iirc, there are c. 1.5mn uk skiers vs 67mn population - so if it's representative, stories about the end of the chalet holiday (p.s. it's more or less ended, thanks brexshit) will appeal to ~2% of Telegraph* readers. Which is surely not very many. And won't sell many adverts.
*substitute your "favourite" rag
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Ah, I thought the vets might need to get up there because it's so warm and grassy that the cows are back.
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You know it makes sense.
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So anyway: been out today. Up Super M, run down to Proclou is fine. 15mins up Proclou then down into Lindarets - busy (it’s the only run down that’a open) and not great - ice and sugar. Up Lechere a d down to Brochaux. 10 mins there (big queue as the bottom of Abrocotine is closed) then off to Changabang for lunch. Dropped the daughter’s BF off for his lesson then down to Grandes Combes. Empty as usual. Round the fence and skied the red down the arete above Combe Machon. Absolutely brilliant skiing and completely empty - it got a bit thin in places which is why I assume it is closed but on the whole really pleasant. Did that a couple of times then up to Fornet and did the blue down there a couple of times which was bumpy and busy in parts. Then finally back up Lac des Intrets and skied what will become the snowcross - but is currently an empty, very pleasant blue-ish run. Crot back to the bottom to finish.
Far better day than I expected (the morning wasn’t great tbh) and hopefully much quieter tomorrow, which will with luck be the last day of this lean spell.
Photo is the closed red down from Grandes Combes.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Hello, I’m a relative novice when it comes to skiing but have been following this forum for a while with regards to PDS weather/snow! Just want to give a quick view from my perspective:
Avoriaz is the main resort with snow. Morzine has a couple of runs open but mostly closed. Les Gets totally closed (from what I hear). We had our first day yesterday with drizzly rain in the morning and very slushy/mogully runs. Very hard on the legs and I took quite a few falls. However, we enjoyed a nice long lunch and the sun came out for the afternoon so not a bad day!
Today was much better. I think the pistes had been groomed overnight (probably not the technical term  ) but the slopes were smoother, a bit icy in patches but much more skiable. Later on in the day they were more slushy but nowhere near the moguls of the day before.
Weather has been amazing - blue sky and sun all day. We ski’d about 10 decent blues and stopped for a raclette and a few beers when we could.
Although the snow isn’t the best, the resort is most definitely open and the workers are trying really hard to keep everything moving.
Just a perspective from a novice who was worried whether she’d get any skiing in this weekend! Hopefully they’ll get another dump next week and the rest of PDS will be up and running.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Beckiboo wrote: |
Hello, I’m a relative novice when it comes to skiing but have been following this forum for a while with regards to PDS weather/snow! Just want to give a quick view from my perspective:
Avoriaz is the main resort with snow. Morzine has a couple of runs open but mostly closed. Les Gets totally closed (from what I hear). We had our first day yesterday with drizzly rain in the morning and very slushy/mogully runs. Very hard on the legs and I took quite a few falls. However, we enjoyed a nice long lunch and the sun came out for the afternoon so not a bad day!
Today was much better. I think the pistes had been groomed overnight (probably not the technical term ) but the slopes were smoother, a bit icy in patches but much more skiable. Later on in the day they were more slushy but nowhere near the moguls of the day before.
Weather has been amazing - blue sky and sun all day. We ski’d about 10 decent blues and stopped for a raclette and a few beers when we could.
Although the snow isn’t the best, the resort is most definitely open and the workers are trying really hard to keep everything moving.
Just a perspective from a novice who was worried whether she’d get any skiing in this weekend! Hopefully they’ll get another dump next week and the rest of PDS will be up and running. |
Great first post and many thanks for taking the time to write this. Welcome to SH!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| franga wrote: |
| Great first post and many thanks for taking the time to write this. Welcome to SH! |
@Beckiboo, +1 and if you're here for a few more days I hope you also get the opportunity to enjoy some fresh snow 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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ECM / YR showing 130cm now out to next weekend for Avoriaz. Going to be more variable lower down, which is typical January westerly driven flow. The peak of this zonal momentum is often early Jan, so we’d expect it to ease off into the second half / February etc, with better chances of some proper cold.
In the meantime there are probably going to be a few high snowline days, but as long as they end up with snow falling to low levels there won’t be any damage.
Looking closer at next weekend the rogue models have capitulated to ECM mean, all 3 now showing that NW-SE tilt near the alps. Nothing super cold, but definitely a step in the right direction.
Further out 18-20th GFS shows a perfect northerly, likely picking up the MJO signal….but it’s just eye candy for now
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Do no we think there’ll be enough open in the PdS for some sliding throughout this week?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@franga, definitely, should be 25-30cm to 1200m by Tuesday. It’s like those partial opening weekends, which are amongst my favorite days to be up there as there will be some lifts and some unpisted areas within easy reach.
The cannons are likely to run mon-tues, so I’d expect Wednesday at the latest to have some lifts running. Glass half full.
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Very quiet up there today after the carnage of the last week!
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@Dashed, Please keep it like that from the 14th onwards!!
Excitement and expectation building.....
I love going to a new place and the PdS area really does seem to have great stories and recommendations - can't wait now!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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We’ve been over to Plaine Dranse/Linga today. No queues and some really decent snow. The red run down the gully next to Echo Alpin was brilliant. Les Combes skiing well too. Came down via Zore/Super M - not much fun with a couple of uphill walks. I think Ozboy was somewhere in the vicinity too.
New bar opened just above the Super M gondola - was going to have a cheeky demi on the way home but they don’t take cards and I’d left my emergency €20 at home.
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@andy from embsay, That sounds very positive compared to everything we've been hearing - good stuff
Must remember the 20e - In Tignes in Dec, we tapped everywhere - Don't recall using cash even once
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FAQ
The Gentiane and Vieux Chêne tracks will therefore be closed. This until further notice.
