 Poster: A snowHead
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| @247snowman wrote: |
@Ozboy,
re: Orange Tips.....
'Left is Less' |
I’ve been skiing for about 40 years and have never noticed orangey bits (other than in Jaffa Cakes, obvs).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@B1g_browner,
When skiing in a white out when it’s really bad and you might be disoriented and not know where the left and right hand side of the pistes are……
In France the poles have an orange tip on the right hand side of the piste.
So if in France if you go through a gap with two x orange tipped poles then you have gone ‘off-piste’ to your right.
Swiss poles are marked a bit different.
The sign explains what the tips of the poles look like either side of the piste in Switzerland and France as they are slightly different in Each country.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Ah thanks for the explanations guys. Couldn't work out what the sign indicated other than an indication that you were skiing between two countries. Ironically, where the sign is located - you might have difficulty seeing it in whiteout conditions... 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks @polo - looks like a decent top up above 1500m in all cases?
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@andy from embsay, there will definitely be snow to low levels....and loads up in Avoriaz, but you really can't guarantee a worst case snowline beyond a week or so. If you look at the spread on the ensemble charts the extreme outliers are anywhere from 400m to 2400m, but the mean is steady at 1400-1600m. Could just be reverting to climate norm that far out, but really, with the atlantic coming in at a westerly angle (beyond the mid week northerly snow) it's a fine line between SW tilt and NW tilt....which is what drives the huge spread on freeze levels. Likely to see a bit of both I reckon, starting high and finishing low ideally.
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@polo, on those graphs does mm of precipitation refer to water or snow?
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@j b, water. X10(ish) for snow.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@andy from embsay, that's what I wondered. Which potentially could mean metres of snow.
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yep, here's the 12z GFS snowfall calculation .....10 days worth of estimates on a single run, so large bag of salt. But there's every chance high altitude will be 1m+
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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oh dear, have I jinxed it.....ECM 12z shocker, high pressure nudging in on tuesday....let's hope it's just a wobble
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@polo other models (inc UK MO) are holding the line though?
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Most models I look at have swung back to the less ideal evolution (south atlantic low interfering).....and earlier than hoped for. Frustrating season.....really bizzare differences at just 4-5 days away, plus 4 or -4c....don't think it's possible to form a view still of the snowline even mid week, and likely too warm end of week. Too much noise still....but not looking as good as it was. Risky business
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You know it makes sense.
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| polo wrote: |
| Risky business |
Weather forecasting in the mountains was always thus. The only thing you can be certain about is the uncertainty.
I really appreciate your detailed model explanations, but I confess that I've not been able to get immersed in them, largely because they're far too complicated for us mere mortals, but at least in part because IME anything more than a week away has an approximately 50% chance of sticking to what was previously expected.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Chaletbeauroc, yes it's about 50% at a week out on a broadscale, but as we've seen in the past some patterns are more reliable than others and have more scope for corrections east/west, but for whatever reason this season isn't producing those in the NW. It's nice to be able to make plans when there's more certainty....eg have a mate driving down from lux for a ski tour weekend but he'll have to leave any decision to the last minute. And obviously those coming out would like to know what to pack....raincoats / wide skis
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo am I right thinking GFS keeps things a little cooler than ECM?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@pmercer,
The 0600 runs seems to be the other way around. ECM seems cooler but neither are ideal.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@pmercer, yes you can see this comparing todays YR.NO (ECM) to snow-forecast.com (GFS). eg Wed 8th, at 1200m YR has 39mm with +3 to -1c, S-F has 0mm and -1 to -6. Not very helpful.
Looking at the spaghetti spreads from the 8-13th (no point looking beyond that), the mean 1500m temps are closely aligned (red lines), but the various Op runs in black (higher resolution = more calculations), show different routes, ECM Op being milder than GFS, and also an outlier vs it's own ensemble suite. So the way to read that is while the black line is likely to be more accurate for a given model than any single ensemble line, it might not be more accurate than the average of 20-30 ensemble lines, which are all just derived from tweaking the raw data / iterations. And given that there is little cross model support (the patterns are all slighlty different, leading to vastly different temps for NW), you can really only look at the mean levels until the fog clears a little.
Long story short, 1500m temps rise above 0 on the 9th to +3 or +4c, there's a little dip on the 11th towards 0c, and then warmer again.
FL wise (per GFS mean) that translates to 1200m 8th, 1900m 9-10th, and 1500m 11th
Snowline wise, deduct 200-300m
ECM left, GFS right
 
@zzz also right, in that ECM is now cooler until the 7th, but the more important (ppn laden) timeframe is 8-13th
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@polo, thanks as always. All of those scenarios suggest mostly snow up high throughout the week/weekend though?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Not really related but I can’t find the info elsewhere. We’re off to Avoriaz for a week on the 11th. I’m trying to work out what lift passes to get. For the kids I was thinking Avoriaz only would be fine but it seems you can only get one or two day passes and if we get these every two days it works out more expensive than a full PDS pass. This seems strange. Am I missing something?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Maniemoo, it's the right place to ask about PdS issues, sorry I don't know the answer, I had a look on the Serma site and it does seem strange
@andy from embsay, this all started going downhill yesterday with the ECM shocker....GFS is on it's own now vs all the others, and the weekend situation is quite frankly not looking good. Far enough away for improvements is about all you can say.
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Best not to look at the latest ECM and GFS runs…..
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@zzz, I did, and pulled the plug on our trip out tomorrow. *(Pardon the pun)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@BergenBergen, I think that’s wise.
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4 of us coming on Wednesday evening for what now looks like 4 days of long lunches!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Best conditions on the upper slopes 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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All the slopes above 2200m and unavailable at this time 
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No clue about the charts but just looking at YR app and looks like a tonne of snow coming to Avoriaz next week but sounds like that could end up being rain?
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You know it makes sense.
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Looks like through Monday no change. Tuesday and Wednesday show but freezing line and temp increases Thursday meaning heavy rain not snow. Leave Friday so will take that but still time for change.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Maniemoo, Rain, yes, in all the forecasts I've looked at. Couple of days ago it was showing as snow, but forecast freezing levels have risen since then.
Being a bit more positive, all our guests this week have had a fantastic time skiing in the sunshine with slopes across the Swiss side and into Avoriaz still holding up well and numbers of skiers very low, especially in CH. Avoriaz crowds will have mostly departed this weekend as well.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Maniemoo wrote: |
| No clue about the charts but just looking at YR app and looks like a tonne of snow coming to Avoriaz next week but sounds like that could end up being rain? |
Their website (I don't use the app) says rain in Les Gets, but that's 400m lower. Hopefully the limit will mostly be above 1400m and we'll park in Chavannes...
Having said that, posting this from the sunny Yeti terrasse, I'm pretty sure that after a week of precipitations we'll all long for the sun again.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Let’s hope we get snow coz a week of rain in a ski resort with the kids does not sound like much fun 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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First day and bit later setting off but have to say given lack of snow pistes holding up very well. Lot of brown to the side and last day of French holidays so should be quieter tomorrow. Few runs down to morzine but slushy and last run home to les gets the same bit can’t complain. Blue skies and sun.
Tomorrow and Tuesday look similar with wind increasing each day. Nobody is sure about Wednesday / Thursday. Majority seem to think snow level about 1500/1600 and rain below. What is agreed is huge amount of precipitation.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@rinky75, Where were you skiing? We stuck to the Linga/Plain-Dranse/Lindarets sectors today, and there's not even a hint of brown anywhere, even down to the base of Linga. Some pistes were scraped, some were really nice, almost soft, with the man-made snow somehow managing to stick to the base. And as was the case last week, the off-piste is on many places even better than the piste, firm but not too hard and although well skied, not having had enough traffic to get it really scraped or icy.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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That’s Chatel correct?
We went up from les gets and down into the bowl. Be careful of la rosta lift comes at you rapidly and lift lady just shakes her head.
Didn’t feel too icy at all bar few patches in shade on morzine side.
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Arrived yesterday, skied Morzine area yesterday and today. Given how little snow there is in general, we've been quite pleasantly surprised by the state of the pistes - there are more that aren't open than I've seen in a long while, but those that are open aren't bad at all. Obviously conditions could be a lot better, but it's not disastrous.
Planning on going over to Lindarets and Avoriaz tomorrow
| Quote: |
Be careful of la rosta lift comes at you rapidly
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Agree, barely enough time to shuffle along the loading area before it scoops you up - we did that lift 5 times in a row today!
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My AirBnB app showing me an uncatered chalet in Chatel, six queen beds plus 2 kids, €5,200 per night for 5 nights starting today.
So in round numbers a min of €866 per night per couple! (But you do get a cleaner twice a week).
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| Matt1959 wrote: |
My AirBnB app showing me an uncatered chalet in Chatel, six queen beds plus 2 kids, €5,200 per night for 5 nights starting today.
So in round numbers a min of €866 per night per couple! (But you do get a cleaner twice a week). |
Might be being made “available to rent” by the owners as a requirement for having claimed back the VAT when they purchased the property.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Seems like a professional ad. Chalet Le Spencer, hospitality by Luxury Retreats.
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Quick look back, first image posted 28th Feb, showing good agreement across the 3 main anomaly charts that by day 10 the flow would turn SW into the alps. Obviously we were hoping that this would be delayed a few days to allow some northerly flow to reach us before westerly driven atlantic systems would spoil the fun. As it happens, we only get a few hours on tuesday before the inevitable surge in temps.
Second image is from today's 00z run, showing how good the match was a week ago. Arrows showing the origin of isobars, and hence the air mass temps, with a northerly into uk, and warm SW air into alps. Clearly there is a little bump / ridge in the east atlantic, turning SW to NW briefly, but not enough to make much difference to the flooding lower down, as 1500m temps will range from +1 to +4 wed thru sun.
FL wise it's now looklng like wed 2000, Fri 1600 and up to 2300 on the weekend.
 
So using the same method of comparing the 3 mean anomaly charts at about 9 days out, it currently looks like another chance of snow once the atlantic system clears across to the east.
  
Whilst there is good agreement for the general pattern, I'd have 2 caveats. First is that the flow is still a little westerly, but importantly the isobars originate nearer the arctic than the south atlantic. And second with the ongoing chaos in the strat, and all the low pressure parked over our side of the hemiphere, reliability of modelling is diminished with such non standard patterns. Third bonus caveat, given our lack of fortune so far this season, the models will probably find a way to mess it all up just before it's about to snow.
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FAQ
