 Poster: A snowHead
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Early next week is starting to look good. Dare to dream 30cm+?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Gored, which part of the world are you referring to?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just to add some capitalism to the thread - friend is an energy trader and their models show current system breaking down by 19th and much colder weather thereafter.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@shredder, for what it’s worth Butler is probably more qualified than Cohen. Doesn’t mean she is necessarily right mind you.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Gored, here’s the raw GFS op output from this morning.
Looking like it might kick off as light rain in NW Alps, but then switch to snow fairly rapidly.
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@footsoldier, don't buy their gas! it seems a general and happily growing consensus that things get colder and snowier from Sunday, at least for Chamonix/G Massif/PdS region ...
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| footsoldier wrote: |
| Just to add some capitalism to the thread - friend is an energy trader and their models show current system breaking down by 19th and much colder weather thereafter. |
I presume this is for the UK? But cold weather here doesn’t necessarily mean colder weather on the continent/ the Alps.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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In terms of global drivers Met Office Contingency planners suggesting La Niña, westerly phase of QBO and stronger than usual polar vortex all acting to increase likelihood of stronger westerly winds from across the Atlantic. The impact these would have on the Alps would depend on where high pressure was established. Meanwhile Madden Julian Oscillation in the Pacific increases likelihood of cold northerlies or easterlies later in January.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| ....Meanwhile Madden Julian Oscillation in the Pacific increases likelihood of cold northerlies or easterlies later in January.... |
That's worthy of Pseuds Corner 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I'm looking at booking a week in the Feb half term 10 or 11th Feb for 7 days, reading above is it reasonably safe to think the snow will be in abundance by then?
I am looking at Les Orres and Valmeinier, both around £600 per head for me and my two children.
I appreciate any tips or recomendations as I am on a tight budget.
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@adrian4design, that’s over a month away - there is absolutely no way of knowing tbh. The end of next week is pretty uncertain. It’s likely to be better than it is now, but “abundant” is impossible to say.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@südtirolistdeutsch, That's literally the other side of the alps in terms or weather from Les Orres and they are talking about a month away with significant snowfall from the west incoming
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@adrian4design, although it's impossible to say at this timescale, Les Orres already has almost all its pistes open (30/36 today) and on balance should improve over the next few weeks. My day trip report from 2020 is here - we liked it though it's not a massive ski area. (I haven't been to Valmeinier but it should also be fine in mid February.)
However I think you should open a new topic in "The Piste" section of the forum for more discussion on this, to help keep this thread more about the general weather outlook rather than specific resorts. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
I think you should open a new topic in "The Piste" section of the forum for more discussion on this, to help keep this thread more about the general weather outlook rather than specific resorts
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+1
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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so looking at the GFS charts for some of the Northern Alps resorts this weekend looks promising, but then am I reading the charts correctly that the forecasts are predicting a return to above average temps early next week, with freezing levels above 2-2500m?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@kitenski, that’s how I read it. A couple of days of snow and cold around 9-11 and then back to warm.
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| franga wrote: |
| footsoldier wrote: |
| Just to add some capitalism to the thread - friend is an energy trader and their models show current system breaking down by 19th and much colder weather thereafter. |
I presume this is for the UK? But cold weather here doesn’t necessarily mean colder weather on the continent/ the Alps. |
No, it’s for Europe, but as has been said, they are often wrong!
They mean temperatures in general dropping for a longer period, not just the snowfalls we all hope for this weekend.
I’m heading back to uk from Chamonix on Sat, back to Saalbach on 21st so hopefully we are winterised by then
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| In terms of global drivers Met Office Contingency planners suggesting La Niña, westerly phase of QBO and stronger than usual polar vortex all acting to increase likelihood of stronger westerly winds from across the Atlantic. The impact these would have on the Alps would depend on where high pressure was established. Meanwhile Madden Julian Oscillation in the Pacific increases likelihood of cold northerlies or easterlies later in January. |
As you may already be aware, the Jet Stream coming off the Pacific has been fairly strong this La Niña season. It's also farther South than last year's La Niña, and I would guess part of that more Southerly flow is due to the polar vortex. Looking at yesterday's radar map for North America region showed some very strong concentrated wind speeds in the center of the current AR that is pummeling Central California right now. The jet stream has been doing some yoga as it bends and twists across North America the past few weeks, leading to tornados in the SE part of the USA, and very cold and windy conditions in the North Central USA.
Not sure what it is doing once it leaves North America and heads across the Atlantic, but would think it would carry a lot of that energy and cold air with it as it travels East.
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@footsoldier, I'm not seeing a sustained cold period from GFS for Chamonix, in fact after this weekend it appears to be heading warm again.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Does anyone know how much snow you need to fall on green stuff before it's considered "good for skiing"?
I'm guessing you'd need a good meter to withstand the piste bashers
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Presumably this is the cause of the excitement
Its is a long way off and seems to be pretty transient, mild before hand. No doubt better than we have had up to now though
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| dave_3 wrote: |
Does anyone know how much snow you need to fall on green stuff before it's considered "good for skiing"?
I'm guessing you'd need a good meter to withstand the piste bashers |
Depends what it’s falling on. If it’s meadowland like Les Gets 20-30cm is transformational. If it’s rocky a lot more needed.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Latest from Meteo Tarentaise
 ️ ️ ️CONFIRMED SNOW RETURN AND SOMETIMES TO LOW ALTITUDE ️ ️
️ I've been telling you about a possible change coming from this weekend, things have changed little, and the trend is confirmed, the snow will be back on Sunday, lasting at the beginning of next week!
️A strong depression is currently present in the south of Greenland and will continue its path across the Atlantic, and on Saturday it will position in the south of Iceland while continuing to strengthen, it could reach 945hPa, and will continue to shift sunday to scotland then stay on this one Monday and Tuesday position.
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quenWhat will be the consequences in Tarantaise?
With this type of setup, the flow will swing Southwest Saturday protecting us from precipitation first then swing West sector Sunday early in the day before the flow straightens down with the shifting of the depression to the E. st, warranting a northwest flow from us second part of the day from Sunday and through to Tuesday.
⏺How high will the snow fall?
Despite some uncertainties, we can now venture into a possible forecast of snow and snow.
On Sunday, as the first precipitation arrives, snow should still be high enough that we will be in the warm heart of the depression, with a possible limit of snowfall around 1800m then quickly snow could approach is 1500m in the afternoon then lower in the evening (1200/1300m? ).
Overnight Sunday through Monday, the cold heart of the depression begins to swell farther down the snow limit to 900/1000m.
Monday, despite some uncertainties, snow could continue to fall above 1000m then 1000/1300m on Tuesday (to be confirmed).
⏺How much to expect?
Well, it's still a long way away, but by Tuesday, the amounts of snow could be sometimes significant in elevation, sometimes more than 40/50cm at 1800m, more than 50cm above 2000m, and up to 20/30cm from 1300m? All this requires confirmation, the detailed bulletins will come back to it, of course.
⏺Is there a chance of snow in the valley?
The valley funds should be spared but it should be kept in mind that a possible scenario that could bring snow down to 500/600m exists in the night of Monday to Tuesday but is not yet majority.
suiteAnd what's next?
Still a lot of uncertainty for the rest of next week, several possible scenarios with a possible return of anticyclonic conditions or the aftermath of possible snow disturbances, sometimes to medium seeing low altitude.
One thing is for sure, the scenarios are much more open than the previous weeks.
Then one thing is confirmed, and the stations will be dreaming of it, it's the return of snowfall on our mountains and sometimes in quantities...
️ We're talking about it this weekend with the evolution of models, and we'll meet tomorrow night for the next weekend bulletin and a big bulletin will be written on Sunday morning for the upcoming episode, several follows will also start from di afternoon round and for the rest of the episode.
Thank you for reading, I wish you a good evening and full of snowy dreams!
Romain VIVIANI of Taranta Weather
R’les Arcs la radio station ( www.laradiostation.fr )
⬇Map from the GFS model (Meteociel), showing the possible precipitation by Tuesday evening, not to be taken lightly.
La Rosière - Espace San Bernardo
ESF La Rosière
Mairie de Sainte-Foy-Tarentaise
Val d'Isère
Tignes
Les Arcs
La Plagne
Valmorel
Val Thorens
Les Menuires
Courchevel
Doucy Combelouviere
Saint François Longchamp
La Thuile Aosta Valley - The Wild Side of Mont Blanc
Bourg Saint Maurice: Ma Ville
Meribel
Bonneval sur arc. DO.
Villaroger
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @Gored, which part of the world are you referring to? |
From Western alps moving across to the East & even into Bulgaria.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| dave_3 wrote: |
Does anyone know how much snow you need to fall on green stuff before it's considered "good for skiing"?
I'm guessing you'd need a good meter to withstand the piste bashers |
As mentioned, is it falling on grass/meadow or rocks and shrubbery? Also, how much water is in that falling snow? If there's a low ratio SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) then you need less as it is much denser. If there's a high ratio and that usually is accompanied by colder temps, then you end up with some very dry, light snow, that gets compressed much easier with that pisten bully.
https://learn.weatherstem.com/modules/learn/lessons/114/16.html
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Toadman, very much looks like it'll be at least for some of the time rain up to altitudes covering the lowest runs in many places, so quite wet snow where it's really needed.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Toadman wrote: |
| dave_3 wrote: |
Does anyone know how much snow you need to fall on green stuff before it's considered "good for skiing"?
I'm guessing you'd need a good meter to withstand the piste bashers |
As mentioned, is it falling on grass/meadow or rocks and shrubbery? Also, how much water is in that falling snow? If there's a low ratio SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) then you need less as it is much denser. If there's a high ratio and that usually is accompanied by colder temps, then you end up with some very dry, light snow, that gets compressed much easier with that pisten bully.
https://learn.weatherstem.com/modules/learn/lessons/114/16.html |
In addition in a lot of resorts, it isnt falling onto green grass, as they still have an base of snow / cannon snow down, and with falling temperatures the cannons can top it up anyway. So for a lot of resort 20-30cm fro sunday will transform them, and snow is forecast on and off in varying amounts overall all next week and beyond.
Yes there will be some of the currently worst effected places in NW that have had lower slopes pretty much cleared off and maybe some of those slope remain below the rain/ snow line for this weekend, but that is a very small minority of the alps.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| t44tomo wrote: |
| Toadman wrote: |
| dave_3 wrote: |
Does anyone know how much snow you need to fall on green stuff before it's considered "good for skiing"?
I'm guessing you'd need a good meter to withstand the piste bashers |
As mentioned, is it falling on grass/meadow or rocks and shrubbery? Also, how much water is in that falling snow? If there's a low ratio SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) then you need less as it is much denser. If there's a high ratio and that usually is accompanied by colder temps, then you end up with some very dry, light snow, that gets compressed much easier with that pisten bully.
https://learn.weatherstem.com/modules/learn/lessons/114/16.html |
In addition in a lot of resorts, it isnt falling onto green grass, |
As you say on slopes with snow canons where 30cm will be enough but not all slopes are covered and even the man made snow has melted lower down.
I'd say below 1800m a couple of falls of 30-50cm will bring us back to a normal start of the season. Above that conditions are ok.
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@Weathercam, get back to posting photos of yourself in lycra.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Is it me, or is it NW Alps that seem to have been the worst affected for the last few years, and that Austria has usually got away with it reasonably well (even this year the low resorts are mostly open still).
Dolomites seem to be doing better respectively than they usually do; the google maps aerial photo (hasn't changed for a couple of years) of the Sella Ronda for example just shows white lines of man made snow
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@nozawaonsen, this would surely be a very worrying turn in emphasis for this thread. Not one I would support. If taken up I will retaliate to everyone’s detriment to pictures of me in Lycra cycling shorts. The doomsday scenario 
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FAQ
probably best to start a separate thread for advice on those resorts. However I'd have thought Les Orres would be a good bet this year as it is one of the cheaper resorts and the Southern alps have had reasonable snow. I went there 30 years ago on a uni ski trip 
