 Poster: A snowHead
|
Looking at 18z GFS this evening the FI (192+) part is particularly strong for below average snowy weather across the Alps. Will it happen? Well it‘s FI so I wouldn’t take it especially seriously, but given the poor recent weather it’s at least heartening to see this sort of output being generated.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
@denfinella, I have the meteo france app and that has max daytime temps in morzine (950m) next week at 6° and about 0° at night- so whilst that’s not going to be snowing in town, 500m higher it should be, shouldn’t it?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
@nozawaonsen, below average? Snowfall or temps?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
@andy from embsay, that would produce below average temperatures and above average snowfall if (big if) it verified. At this stage it’s more interesting that it’s producing it as a possibility rather than any particular detail. Confidence in that particular outcome at this stage would be low. Let’s see whether this is a pattern that starts to develop or gets rejected tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Thanks @nozawaonsen - as you say a long way out yet but good to see!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| andy from embsay wrote: |
| @denfinella, I have the meteo france app and that has max daytime temps in morzine (950m) next week at 6° and about 0° at night- so whilst that’s not going to be snowing in town, 500m higher it should be, shouldn’t it? |
if you take adiabatic cooling as 0.6C per 100 m then assume snow falls 2 to 300 m below the FL you can work it out. That gives you about 1650 m which is inline with my 1500-2000m outlook.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@andy from embsay, broadly yes, and in addition to what @davidof says, I'd expect there to be a smaller temperature difference between night and day than the 6C/0C Meteo France figures. Clear skies and lack of sunshine are the biggest causes for temperatures dipping overnight, but in cloudy / wet / snowy weather these would be less of a driver.
However the details are probably better off on the Morzine thread as it's specific to that location 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Perhaps someone could create a separate „grim reading“ thread??
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Jolly good. Perhaps people could post there.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
What do the experts think about the fact that the saturated ground at low to mid altitudes will need a decent stretch of below 0C days to freeze properly so that any new snow (whether wet or dry) can stick to it properly and accumulate to some sort of a base? There'll be quite a few slides if there's no adequate bonding? I'll move this to the "grim " thread when it's up and running.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Perhaps someone could create a separate „grim reading“ thread?? |
Quite pleased I had already moved my Ellmau booking from this weekend coming out by 3 weeks (not because of conditions) and that for the first time I am trying Selva in March (yes a long way out, but Dolomites seem to be one of the better areas right now, and relatively cold)
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Anyone have any views on what's going to happen in the Dolomites next week?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
@franga, I was chatting to a chum who is a senior pisteur up a well known Chamonix area and he said the whole "cold ground" thing was mostly bollox as (by definition) the ground in contact with the snow is at 0C all the time. And given that much of what is skied over is not permafrost, the ground just gets warmer as you go deeper.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
@franga, those areas where there is no base and steep territory will be more likely to see slides if they then get heavy snowfall.
Obviously people can post what they want where, just feels like a bit of a rebalance to the weather outlook might be of benefit.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| Hurtle wrote: |
| Anyone have any views on what's going to happen in the Dolomites next week? |
Seems to be colder now than most places and will be colder next week than most places. At least according to Bergfex.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
@Hurtle, pretty good. Cooling down, light snow to start week. It’s sheltered from the stormier weather to the NW.
Val Gardena.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
@nozawaonsen, thank you so much. Happy New Year to you, and Happy skiing in 2023.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| under a new name wrote: |
| @franga, I was chatting to a chum who is a senior pisteur up a well known Chamonix area and he said the whole "cold ground" thing was mostly bollox as (by definition) the ground in contact with the snow is at 0C all the time. And given that much of what is skied over is not permafrost, the ground just gets warmer as you go deeper. |
Pisteurs know their stuff.
For natural slides, I don't worry about them as I don't own any infrastructure in an avalanche zone.
As far as human triggered avalanches goes the current thin snowpack is liable to facet if the nights are clear and relatively cold. This will also concern any fresh snow if the new cover is thin. We've basically reset back to early November as far as current conditions go, at least below 2500 m. Obviously a lot of latent heat will add to the energy in the system which is why winter begins in December and not earlier.
Regarding next week. Meteo France at least seem certain that temps will continue to be above average but say they have no certain idea yet how warm it will be. That's good if the snow doesn't fall at valley level but bad if too high. They seem clear that there are 4 days of rain/snow.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chamonix Meteo now saying for Monday “seemingly, persistent unsettled condition with risk of fairly heavy precipitation and of dropping rain-snow limit towards 1100m” - I don’t know where he’s getting his freezing level from but I’ll take that.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| under a new name wrote: |
| @franga, I was chatting to a chum who is a senior pisteur up a well known Chamonix area and he said the whole "cold ground" thing was mostly bollox as (by definition) the ground in contact with the snow is at 0C all the time. And given that much of what is skied over is not permafrost, the ground just gets warmer as you go deeper. |
Really good point, thanks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
@franga, I've held that view for a long time, but everyone else disagreed with me. But it is simple thermodynamics*
He very much reinforced the point that @davidof makes re faceted layers.
* thermodynamics is not really so simple. Entropy, ugh.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
But isn’t there a temperature gradient down through the soil? I would have thought if the ground is deeply frozen new snow would have a better chance of sticking around for longer than if it’s 5 degrees 30cm down in the earth.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Triple Nina not so good for Europe 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
The unpredictable is now predicting big dump for the weekend after next. Roll on the 15th
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
@hold_my_biere, there is a temp gradient down through the soil, it gets warmer as you descend. So if it's at 0 at surface, it's just warmer going down.
This is of course a bit simplified. But I think the basics are there.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
And the meadows of Les Gets or Alpbach are never going to be "deeply frozen".
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Gored wrote: |
Triple Nina not so good for Europe |
Sorry about that. Hopefully things shift for the Euro ski folks soon.
So far it's been a really amazing early season and forecasts continue to look good for the next few weeks on the West Coast of the USA. The last few weeks the Jet Stream has sagged a bit farther South, so California has been getting hit with some very big storms that then work their way across to Utah and Colorado. A bit more of a Southerly flow, so places like Bryan Head in Southern Utah as well as Taos, New Mexico are having a decent season as well.
I won't mess up this thread with too much on North America weather updates. Will keep mostly to posting in the North America thread for those contemplating coming across the pond. You really can not go wrong with whichever state and resort you choose currently. Jackson Hole, Wyoming is having an incredible season. So are the Utah ski resorts at Park City/Canyons/Deer Valley along with the usual powder magnets of Alta and Snowbird. Colorado ski areas also doing outstanding. Steamboat in particular is over 5 meters. The Canadian resorts are in a bit of a thin spell with the storms coming a bit farther South recently. Otherwise it's excellent conditions out West.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Does the polar vortex have much impact on weather in the Alps? There's a lot of noise about it being very elongated at the moment, may or may not collapse to cause a sudden stratospheric warming event.
SSW or not is seems as though it'll at least weaken the gulf stream and bring cold Artic air further south to Ireland and UK towards the end of the month. I've no idea if this transpires to lower temps in the Alps too?
A lot of charts and info on this Twitter profile:
https://twitter.com/PvForecast?s=09
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
@shredder, There is some discussion of this above. As ever with weather there are mixed views as to the likelihood of an SSW event and if it did happen how much effect it would have on Alpine weather. It seems likely that very cold air is heading for Russia & Ukraine but wont reach the alps though less mild conditions seem to be on the way
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=5057518&highlight=#5057518
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
@Toadman, keep posting the American stuff - this is a global forum after all.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Toadman wrote: |
| Gored wrote: |
Triple Nina not so good for Europe |
Sorry about that. Hopefully things shift for the Euro ski folks soon.
So far it's been a really amazing early season and forecasts continue to look good for the next few weeks on the West Coast of the USA. The last few weeks the Jet Stream has sagged a bit farther South, so California has been getting hit with some very big storms that then work their way across to Utah and Colorado. A bit more of a Southerly flow, so places like Bryan Head in Southern Utah as well as Taos, New Mexico are having a decent season as well.
I won't mess up this thread with too much on North America weather updates. Will keep mostly to posting in the North America thread for those contemplating coming across the pond. You really can not go wrong with whichever state and resort you choose currently. Jackson Hole, Wyoming is having an incredible season. So are the Utah ski resorts at Park City/Canyons/Deer Valley along with the usual powder magnets of Alta and Snowbird. Colorado ski areas also doing outstanding. Steamboat in particular is over 5 meters. The Canadian resorts are in a bit of a thin spell with the storms coming a bit farther South recently. Otherwise it's excellent conditions out West. |
I haven't kept up too closely with it, but the eastern resorts are having a very bad winter so far.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| telford_mike wrote: |
| @Toadman, keep posting the American stuff - this is a global forum after all. |
@telford_mike LOL! Thanks for the encouragement! Will do!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
