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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
SimpleSkier92 wrote:
Hi All,

I am in dire need of help/advice. So my partner and I are headed to the alps in a little over a week and were planning to ski in Zermatt from January 9th - January 14th. We have done this trip a number of times in mid-January and have always had a great time. However, we’ve heard the conditions this year aren’t great as of now (we have some friends there currently as well that can corroborate this). Obviously, this is the case everywhere in the Alps, but we are trying to save our holiday. We are flying into Zurich on the 6th and are willing to travel up to 8 hours (via car or trains) to any mountain/country to find better conditions. Does anyone have any recommendations as to where has the best conditions now, or where is forecasted to have the best conditions in about a weeks time? So far, it seems like Verbier and Val-d'Isère may be the best right now, but that is just going off of what I have read on Snow Heads. Any insight is much appreciated. I posted in another place as well, but thought I should ask here because I saw others doing the same.

Thanks in advance for the help.

Provided you’re on-Piste, I don’t know why you’re stressing: Zermatt has the highest altitude runs in the alps. In fact, I would be more worried of having snow, bad weather, and high winds, than lack of snow. Here in the Salzburg area, the ski areas (Saalbach, Zillertal, Zell am See, Kitzsteinhorn, Kitzbühel, SkiWelt) are almost completely open. Keep in mind they didn’t get nearly as much rain as PdS/low down in France, but early December temps were cold enough to get lots of snow making running.

As for you, I would suggest you look into St. Moritz, an underrated resort in pure skiing terms. They have 150+km of slopes and two large areas: Corviglia, known for its cruisey, sunny, south facing slopes, and Corvatsch, a much more difficult glacier. For accommodation, check out the neighboring village of Celerina to save $$$, it has its own gondola that takes you to a major hub of the ski area. St. Moritz is also very high up, with the village at 1800m. Looking at the webcams, it’s still white down in the village if that’s important to you


Thanks for the response südtirolistdeutsch! Your assumption is correct: we will primarily be on-piste. My friends who are currently in Zermatt told me that the snow and skiing are both terrible right now, so I do not think they will be significantly better by January 9th. But, again, I have no idea haha. Any further insight you might have is much appreciated! That being said, I will look into St. Moritz. I went once before (5 years ago) and it was lovely. Do you have any other suggestions?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
SimpleSkier92 wrote:
Hi All,

I am in dire need of help/advice. So my partner and I are headed to the alps in a little over a week and were planning to ski in Zermatt from January 9th - January 14th. We have done this trip a number of times in mid-January and have always had a great time. However, we’ve heard the conditions this year aren’t great as of now (we have some friends there currently as well that can corroborate this). Obviously, this is the case everywhere in the Alps, but we are trying to save our holiday. We are flying into Zurich on the 6th and are willing to travel up to 8 hours (via car or trains) to any mountain/country to find better conditions. Does anyone have any recommendations as to where has the best conditions now, or where is forecasted to have the best conditions in about a weeks time? So far, it seems like Verbier and Val-d'Isère may be the best right now, but that is just going off of what I have read on Snow Heads. Any insight is much appreciated. I posted in another place as well, but thought I should ask here because I saw others doing the same.

Thanks in advance for the help.


I feel your pain. My trip is from Australia to the European Alps. A fair bit of my trip can be cancelled or changed ( not the main flights though).

I’ve considered ditching the Europe plans altogether to head to the US or Canada but knowing my luck there would be a blizzard or unseasonal downpour wherever I switched to so just keeping my eyes on the European forecast for now.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Raven,
When are you due to fly in?
If you can adjust your expectations to be satisfied with just piste skiing most of the high resorts won’t need that much snow as a refresher. Off piste is another dtory of course.
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sbooker wrote:
@Raven,
When are you due to fly in?
If you can adjust your expectations to be satisfied with just piste skiing most of the high resorts won’t need that much snow as a refresher. Off piste is another dtory of course.


I fly in two weeks but have a bit of sightseeing before my skiing starts. It will be piste skiing so probably fine. Maybe I’m a bit fussy but I also like my ski holidays to look appropriately wintery as well as having enough snow to ski on snowHead
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
SimpleSkier92 wrote:
Hi All,

I am in dire need of help/advice. So my partner and I are headed to the alps in a little over a week and were planning to ski in Zermatt from January 9th - January 14th. We have done this trip a number of times in mid-January and have always had a great time. However, we’ve heard the conditions this year aren’t great as of now (we have some friends there currently as well that can corroborate this). Obviously, this is the case everywhere in the Alps, but we are trying to save our holiday. We are flying into Zurich on the 6th and are willing to travel up to 8 hours (via car or trains) to any mountain/country to find better conditions. Does anyone have any recommendations as to where has the best conditions now, or where is forecasted to have the best conditions in about a weeks time? So far, it seems like Verbier and Val-d'Isère may be the best right now, but that is just going off of what I have read on Snow Heads. Any insight is much appreciated. I posted in another place as well, but thought I should ask here because I saw others doing the same.

Thanks in advance for the help.


1. Looking at Zermatt interactive map, looks like pretty much everything is open, apart from some of black slopes, which rarely open before February anyway as they need so much snow to cover rocks, and (temporarily) links to Cervinia, due to winds (no way of predicting if winds close links during your stay or not). What are your friends complaining about exactly? (Maybe they just don't like resort? Personally I'm not mad about it either for several reasons)

2. 73% of Tignes is open, including 41% of black runs. To be fair even in N America most resorts won't have all steep bowls open in early January, its a major bonus if they do. 41% is quite decent.

3. There is a lot of dismay on this forum about Portes de Soleil and Grand Massif. I agree before mid January is way too early for those resorts

4. As things stand, a massive snowfall is predicted around 9th Jan, could be 1m in 2 days in France. There may be little or no skiing in high resorts due to avalanche risk. The aforementioned low resorts may be fantastic then
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Lot of negativity here. While its true that the weather in the week prior to Christmas was not ideal, most places have had some snow and are generally open. In Austria even low places like SkiWelt have most of the pistes open, the most cursory look at resort webcams will show lots of folk skiing amid winter mountain scenes. Low amounts of snow at new year is hardly unusual as has already been pointed out by a number of people conditions have been far worse previously. Not convinced about indications of big snowfalls in the near future but there is some on the horizon along with cooler temperatures. If you are really concerned about Zermatt (because it is so high it gets effected by bad weather more than most places) have a look on the Zermatt thread there are usually reports from people who live there and also those visiting. If you are really worried, consider the Arlberg almost all of the pistes are open and a few of the ski routes though off piste is in short supply the feedback from those who are there (again look at the Arlberg thread) is generally good.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
More rain again last night. What’s the world coming too…

http://youtube.com/v/Lz5O5KCAbo0
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
peanuthead wrote:


4. As things stand, a massive snowfall is predicted around 9th Jan, could be 1m in 2 days in France.


9 days is an awfully long way off. Where have you seen that forecast? Great if true!
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The 9th / 10th does seem to be a thing now but I doubt we'll get a meter and the FL could still be a problem - around 1500 meters. The second half of Jan offers more hope that the February holiday period could start with reasonable coverage.



Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sun 1-01-23 12:53; edited 1 time in total
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@telford_mike, Yr.no, which I believe is based ECMWF which is more accurate than GFS squiggles. Predicting 78mm snow for Les Arcs on 8th/9th
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It’s happening - BBC app now showing rain @ Geneva from next Sunday for a few days and overnight temps close to 0C. A positive as far as I’m concerned.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@peanuthead, fingers, and everything else, crossed Very Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
And Stanton just posted map in St Anton thread showing 175mm for Haute Tarantaise by 10th
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
peanuthead wrote:
And Stanton just posted map in St Anton thread showing 175mm for Haute Tarantaise by 10th

That must definitely be true then
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@peanuthead, in that case expect a heatwave! a somewhat different perspective below

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Forecast on the beeb for the Belleville valley looking more positive. Should start getting much colder in Les Ménuires over the next week. Was getting a bit nervous about my trip on the 20th of Jan. Crossing my fingers and toes.
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PrinceJohn wrote:
Forecast on the beeb for the Belleville valley looking more positive. Should start getting much colder in Les Ménuires over the next week. Was getting a bit nervous about my trip on the 20th of Jan. Crossing my fingers and toes.


Cross yout eyes as well & hope the wind doesnt change
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
SimpleSkier92 wrote:
südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
SimpleSkier92 wrote:
Hi All,

I am in dire need of help/advice. So my partner and I are headed to the alps in a little over a week and were planning to ski in Zermatt from January 9th - January 14th. We have done this trip a number of times in mid-January and have always had a great time. However, we’ve heard the conditions this year aren’t great as of now (we have some friends there currently as well that can corroborate this). Obviously, this is the case everywhere in the Alps, but we are trying to save our holiday. We are flying into Zurich on the 6th and are willing to travel up to 8 hours (via car or trains) to any mountain/country to find better conditions. Does anyone have any recommendations as to where has the best conditions now, or where is forecasted to have the best conditions in about a weeks time? So far, it seems like Verbier and Val-d'Isère may be the best right now, but that is just going off of what I have read on Snow Heads. Any insight is much appreciated. I posted in another place as well, but thought I should ask here because I saw others doing the same.

Thanks in advance for the help.

Provided you’re on-Piste, I don’t know why you’re stressing: Zermatt has the highest altitude runs in the alps. In fact, I would be more worried of having snow, bad weather, and high winds, than lack of snow. Here in the Salzburg area, the ski areas (Saalbach, Zillertal, Zell am See, Kitzsteinhorn, Kitzbühel, SkiWelt) are almost completely open. Keep in mind they didn’t get nearly as much rain as PdS/low down in France, but early December temps were cold enough to get lots of snow making running.

As for you, I would suggest you look into St. Moritz, an underrated resort in pure skiing terms. They have 150+km of slopes and two large areas: Corviglia, known for its cruisey, sunny, south facing slopes, and Corvatsch, a much more difficult glacier. For accommodation, check out the neighboring village of Celerina to save $$$, it has its own gondola that takes you to a major hub of the ski area. St. Moritz is also very high up, with the village at 1800m. Looking at the webcams, it’s still white down in the village if that’s important to you


Thanks for the response südtirolistdeutsch! Your assumption is correct: we will primarily be on-piste. My friends who are currently in Zermatt told me that the snow and skiing are both terrible right now, so I do not think they will be significantly better by January 9th. But, again, I have no idea haha. Any further insight you might have is much appreciated! That being said, I will look into St. Moritz. I went once before (5 years ago) and it was lovely. Do you have any other suggestions?


I would also recommend you check out Arosa-Lenzerheide. I went there last year, and although it wasn't one of my favorites, it was still quite good, just the lifts felt older than the average in Austria. Arosa-Lenzerheide is high up at 1700m (the drive up from Chur is both nerve-wracking and stunning as you drive on the side of the mountain, hundreds of meters above the valley, for an hour) and has over 230km of pistes. If your group are less confident skiers I would suggest you stay at 1500m in Lenzerheide rather than Arosa since most of the skiing (long, cruisey reds & blues) are on the Lenzerheide side and the only way to access it from Arosa is a very steep "red" run whose pitch gets up to 30+ degrees (there is no downloading and no bus). The Arosa section is mostly reds, but there is also an excellent beginner section. There is less valley level snow there than St. Moritz (much of the Lenzerheide side is brown). In terms of what's open, they are about equal: St. Moritz is smaller, but has a much larger % open (don't trust skiresort.info, just check the interactive piste maps yourself). Arosa is about 2 hours away from Zurich airport, St. Morits 2h40m.

There is also Flims-Laax, but I've never been there so I can't say much about it.
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südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
SimpleSkier92 wrote:
südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
SimpleSkier92 wrote:
Hi All,

I am in dire need of help/advice. So my partner and I are headed to the alps in a little over a week and were planning to ski in Zermatt from January 9th - January 14th. We have done this trip a number of times in mid-January and have always had a great time. However, we’ve heard the conditions this year aren’t great as of now (we have some friends there currently as well that can corroborate this). Obviously, this is the case everywhere in the Alps, but we are trying to save our holiday. We are flying into Zurich on the 6th and are willing to travel up to 8 hours (via car or trains) to any mountain/country to find better conditions. Does anyone have any recommendations as to where has the best conditions now, or where is forecasted to have the best conditions in about a weeks time? So far, it seems like Verbier and Val-d'Isère may be the best right now, but that is just going off of what I have read on Snow Heads. Any insight is much appreciated. I posted in another place as well, but thought I should ask here because I saw others doing the same.

Thanks in advance for the help.

Provided you’re on-Piste, I don’t know why you’re stressing: Zermatt has the highest altitude runs in the alps. In fact, I would be more worried of having snow, bad weather, and high winds, than lack of snow. Here in the Salzburg area, the ski areas (Saalbach, Zillertal, Zell am See, Kitzsteinhorn, Kitzbühel, SkiWelt) are almost completely open. Keep in mind they didn’t get nearly as much rain as PdS/low down in France, but early December temps were cold enough to get lots of snow making running.

As for you, I would suggest you look into St. Moritz, an underrated resort in pure skiing terms. They have 150+km of slopes and two large areas: Corviglia, known for its cruisey, sunny, south facing slopes, and Corvatsch, a much more difficult glacier. For accommodation, check out the neighboring village of Celerina to save $$$, it has its own gondola that takes you to a major hub of the ski area. St. Moritz is also very high up, with the village at 1800m. Looking at the webcams, it’s still white down in the village if that’s important to you


Thanks for the response südtirolistdeutsch! Your assumption is correct: we will primarily be on-piste. My friends who are currently in Zermatt told me that the snow and skiing are both terrible right now, so I do not think they will be significantly better by January 9th. But, again, I have no idea haha. Any further insight you might have is much appreciated! That being said, I will look into St. Moritz. I went once before (5 years ago) and it was lovely. Do you have any other suggestions?


I would also recommend you check out Arosa-Lenzerheide. I went there last year, and although it wasn't one of my favorites, it was still quite good, just the lifts felt older than the average in Austria. Arosa-Lenzerheide is high up at 1700m (the drive up from Chur is both nerve-wracking and stunning as you drive on the side of the mountain, hundreds of meters above the valley, for an hour) and has over 230km of pistes. If your group are less confident skiers I would suggest you stay at 1500m in Lenzerheide rather than Arosa since most of the skiing (long, cruisey reds & blues) are on the Lenzerheide side and the only way to access it from Arosa is a very steep "red" run whose pitch gets up to 30+ degrees (there is no downloading and no bus). The Arosa section is mostly reds, but there is also an excellent beginner section. There is less valley level snow there than St. Moritz (much of the Lenzerheide side is brown). In terms of what's open, they are about equal: St. Moritz is smaller, but has a much larger % open (don't trust skiresort.info, just check the interactive piste maps yourself). Arosa is about 2 hours away from Zurich airport, St. Morits 2h40m.

There is also Flims-Laax, but I've never been there so I can't say much about it.


A great choice.

To add, there’s an amazing Swiss Rail route with hourly trains to Arosa from Zurich, costing just CHF20 per journey, taking 3 hours.

Scenic and without worrying about the vertigo!
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These pages full of quotes of quotes of quotes are very tedious......this thread should be about synoptic weather trends.

Please! We have contributors here who can really help us understand the trends. The minutiae of resorts belongs in the resorts thread.
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We are in Verbier this week and it is spring conditions. On piste, nice in the first two hours then turns into ice or heavy snow depending on the orientation of the piste. I have been coming here for 10 years and it is the worst I have seen it. On the contrary, I was in Val Thoren mid December and even though there was not a lot of snow the conditions were wonderful. Not sure if this helps, but there you go
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Quote:

Not sure if this helps

Not sure it does, because mid December was better everywhere than now. You're comparing apples and pears.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
pam w wrote:
Quote:

Not sure if this helps

Not sure it does, because mid December was better everywhere than now. You're comparing apples and pears.


Exactly. My family had a good time in VT until Thursday 23 Dec, then the torrential rain and remarkably high temperatures arrived.
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@pam w, agree! and not for trip advice. Open another thread please. Weather reports (and first hand current experience) only.
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Aye, "outlook" in the thread title being key. Perhaps it should be renamed "the thread for insightful comments on the weather in the not to distant future" instead Laughing
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pam w wrote:
These pages full of quotes of quotes of quotes are very tedious......this thread should be about synoptic weather trends.

Please! We have contributors here who can really help us understand the trends. The minutiae of resorts belongs in the resorts thread.


Absolutely….
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Cacciatore wrote:
pam w wrote:
These pages full of quotes of quotes of quotes are very tedious......this thread should be about synoptic weather trends.

Please! We have contributors here who can really help us understand the trends. The minutiae of resorts belongs in the resorts thread.


Absolutely….


….No question…. Toofy Grin
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Cacciatore wrote:
Cacciatore wrote:
pam w wrote:
These pages full of quotes of quotes of quotes are very tedious......this thread should be about synoptic weather trends.

Please! We have contributors here who can really help us understand the trends. The minutiae of resorts belongs in the resorts thread.


Absolutely….


….No question…. Toofy Grin


+1
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
denfinella wrote:
Cacciatore wrote:
Cacciatore wrote:
pam w wrote:
These pages full of quotes of quotes of quotes are very tedious......this thread should be about synoptic weather trends.

Please! We have contributors here who can really help us understand the trends. The minutiae of resorts belongs in the resorts thread.


Absolutely….


….No question…. Toofy Grin


+1


Agreed
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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For those contemplating a change of plans. There's a solid base of snow and excellent conditions at Tahoe, Utah, Colorado ski resorts. Same for British Columbia. The past few storms that came in at the end of December have done a fantastic job of building up the bases. If piste skiing is your thing, then there will be miles and miles of corduroy, or if you prefer, kilometers of corduroy, there's a lot of that too!



Trend continues to look positive for additional storms at the start of the new year.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
An entire continent! That's what I call a synoptic chart. Laughing
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Current WePowder forecast is favoring snow for Austria next weekend with up to 50cm for the Arlberg, Kitzsteinhorn, and Dachstein. Saalbach, Obertauern, etc are forecast for up to 30cm by the end of Sunday. I plan on being in Obertauern by then, so a part of me hopes this far out forecast is wrong and we get sun instead, but I’ll be sure to report in.

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Snow-forecast (which I believe is GFS) is starting to show some snow on a hope cast for France and Switzerland in 6-9 days time. Last time this happened the falls didn’t materialise. Fingers crossed this time it’s a real change in weather patterns and temperature, not just the charts throwing up an outlier that will be gone by next update.
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The Euro model is on board from what I can tell.
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My forecasting skills goes as far as meteociel! This for next week has been showing for a few days now.

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@Raven, I think it uses the GFS operational run which those that know tell me isn’t very consistent a few days ahead (and jumps about a lot from run to run) so at 7 days + they look at the average of the ensembles.

From my untrained eye GFS, ECM and GEM are all showing a period of colder and unsettled weather from Monday 9 onwards (at least for PdS) - and they’ve all been suggesting that for a few days now. Pic is latest GFS for Morzine - white (average) line showing things getting interesting from 9/1.

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All the forecasts are changing from each run to the next, with varying amounts of accumulation (and strong winds), there one minute and then gone the next.

A week is a long way off, but one could say hopefully it's going to be a more unsettled period of weather than this week!

YR.NO always seems to be the most optimistic Very Happy

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Henri sounding a note of caution re the fluctuating snowline in any change next week, as was also indicated by someone here I think

https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/286581

Have a sense it may not be quite the breaking of the dam yet, or at least favourable conditions will be quite localised and short term. Lets see.
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8611 wrote:
Henri sounding a note of caution re the fluctuating snowline in any change next week, as was also indicated by someone here I think


Yes, that was me, above on this page.
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@SimpleSkier92,

I think you'd want a pretty strong rationale for switching to another resort as conditions across the Alps seem poor so height is the most important factor, which obviously Zermatt has. With the exception of the lower French resorts which were hammered by rain I don't think there would be a discernible reason to change as conditions in most high places should be about the same (unless someone else can evidence otherwise). I think you'll just be chasing the dragon and torturing yourself as a result

At the risk of being patronising the best way to save your holiday is to just focus on enjoying yourself rather than getting hung up on the snow conditions. Enjoy the skiing as it is and maybe do some other activities (touring, snow shoeing, sledging etc) that you mightn't ordinarily do if the skiing was good. I know I'd like to be looking at the Matterhorn next week, in any conditions.
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