 Poster: A snowHead
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Looks like snow possible over the Solden weekend 22/23rd?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/285427
It has been dry and warm in the Alps for a while now. For Austria, October 2022 is likely to finish in the top-3 warmest October months, with a possibility of even becoming the warmest October ever recorded (more info here). Large-scale significant snowfall with a low snowline is unfortunately not shown on the weather charts at the moment, but due to an approaching low-pressure area, the higher-lying parts of the Western Alps will get quite a bit of precipitation in the coming days. The southwesterly flow will keep it warm, so in the areas below 3000 metres most of it will fall as rain.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Snowing in the Washington Cascades this evening. Maybe 20cm-30cm over the next two days. Similar amounts forecast for the Central Oregon Cascades. Has been quite warm in October (mid 20's C), so don't see it sticking around for long. Ground is too warm.
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I just posted the below on another forum. It's about my sub tropical city of Brisbane Australia.
This continuing La Nina weather pattern is delivering extremely unseasonal rain to Brisbane area. We usually get no rain in August and September and October is usually just the very start of the storm season. (Storm being afternoon thunderstorm that rolls through for about half an hour and dumps an inch of rain at best). This spring has seen 10 inches in August (average about 30ml or just over 1 inch), 9 inches in September (average about 1 inch) and we're having another event now that will see 8 inches over three days. I've not seen rain at this time of year like this ever. In 2007 we did have some rain in August and a follow up in October. I remember it well as it broke a long running drought here in south east Queensland. Our drinking water storage dams got down to 11% in the July of 2007. Things were looking dire. Interestingly that drought and water shortage caused the water authorities to have the dams* at 160% capacity until 2010/11 when we had huge flooding through the city that affected thousands of homes. The dams were too full to properly function for flood mitigation as they were designed for after the 1974 flood event.
*Water is being released from Wivenhoe and Somerset dams this week so we're better prepared for a wetter than normal wet season this summer. Brisbane flooded last year and we don't need a repeat this year.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@kitenski, no snow looking likely unfortunately. There was a cold snap in mid September. I had few mornings of looking at white mountains on the way into work but that is all gone. Generally warm and sunny autumn weather, golden trees and small amounts of rain. Good for wandering in the mountains less so for prospects of sliding down them. Apparently some of the Sölden races have been cancelled due to it being too warm, even Zermatt/Cervinia seems to be using artificial snow for an early season race there.
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Took the dog for a hike this morning. A few centimeters of fresh for the pooch to run around in. Snow level at about 1,200 meters in the Cascades this weekend.
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When do the high resorts in the French Alps tend to get their first meaningful snowfalls down to resort levels? Got a trip to VT at start of January so need to know when to start my obsessive compulsive webcam watching!
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@ManiaMuse, meaningful you ask ? In case of VT Nov onwards but sometimes in a dry year not till Dec/Jan leaving the snowmaking to do they heavy lifting
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| ManiaMuse wrote: |
| When do the high resorts in the French Alps tend to get their first meaningful snowfalls down to resort levels? Got a trip to VT at start of January so need to know when to start my obsessive compulsive webcam watching! |
November. Although if you’re there in Jan not much point looking until a couple of weeks before
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The worry this year must be the high surface water sea temperatures. The Atlantic and North seas look particularly warm and the continuing warm Autumn temperatures won’t be helping that. Warm sea temperatures will tend to moderate any northerly outbreaks at least in the first part of winter.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Peter S, I was told I was a profit of doom for pointing this out a few weeks back but think you are right. Current conditions seem to be proving the point though we can hope it might change.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
| I was told I was a profit of doom for pointing this out a few weeks back |
Shame you couldn't prophet from betting on it... 
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Isn't it far too early to worry about this, it pretty much always snows up there in the end doesn't it?
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You know it makes sense.
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@mheadbee, this is the snowheads obsessive weather watching thread!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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The forecast here is for a tropical 25 degrees on Saturday with temperatures dropping in the following days, though not to real winter levels. No sign of any precipitation beyond the odd raindrop. Not looking good for early season racing or indeed skiing (less than a month before Ischgl & Obergurgl are due to open).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The consensus from the many different agencies and weather gurus was that Autumn across Western Europe would be Dry’ish and above average temps , it has been , and that as we move into Winter it will continue in that pattern but with some cold interludes , nobody is suggesting above average Rainfall/snowfall this winter. I hope they are wrong but weather patterns have a habit of being difficult to break.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yes, it's lovely and warm. No need to put the heating on yet and the washing can still be dried outside.
October/November is often warm and sunny. Sometimes there is snow – we had some about a month ago – but it doesn't hang around more than a few days. Waiting for winter in autumn is an exercise in disappointment. But the winter will come, it always does.
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@Rob Mackley, This website is forecasting above average precipitation for the Southern half of the alps, below average for the Northern half, ski specific bit at the bottom, although their diagram of where there will be 'drought improvement' covers pretty much all of the main ski areas so there's not no hope for the season. For the record, I have no idea how accurate accuweather's long range forecasts have been in the past
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweather-2022-2023-europe-winter-forecast/1259417
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@rambotion, Yep I’ve seen this type of pattern in other years can’t remember if they were LaNina years . This suggests lots of Genoa Lows which will be great for the Southern French alps , south of the Alpine ridge and the other southern alpine ranges .
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@rambotion, fair to say that all LRFs only have relatively low confidence that said they may help identify broad patters or trends (but even then can be pretty marginal). Still interesting to watch and see how they evolve.
Signs the mild weather pattern may shift as we go into November.
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| @Peter S, I was told I was a profit of doom for pointing this out… |
Are you sure? Sounds more like a description you are applying to yourself. Might fit of course, but can’t see anyone else describing you as that.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
| Winter is coming. Snowvember on its way |
Let's hope so - almost all of Europe is just about tropical at the moment... 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen, there might have been a little bit of poetic licence (& spelling!) but
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Well that’s the season pretty much written off right there I’d say… And only mid September. But there you go. |
GFS is somewhat optimistic for the end of the forecast period ECM less so
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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It’s that time of year where I start stalking this thread, I guess it beats last year and stalking travel restrictions for travelling to Austria
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Snow can be found at the moment.
My daughter is in Austria at the moment on the Pitztal Glacizer for a training week.
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You know it makes sense.
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something else related to the weather, with it being warmer than normal meaning ground temps higher than usual for autumn, when we do get a dump would that be cause for concern in creating a PWL in the snow pack with the higher ground than air temp?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Hopefully Snow-forecast.com is correct and things are finally cooling down in the next week or so - eg freezing level down to around 1850m in France. (See Val D'Isere forecast below.)
That's down from a balmy (if not barmy...) 15C tomorrow 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Fascinating @kitenski. With our particular interest in St Gervais, it looks as if that lies around the boundary between "excellent" an "poor" with no half measures. Poor is a worry, snow cover similar to the British Pennines won't support much skiing.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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What is the significance of the operational (green) being a massive outlier to all the other lines?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@BobinCH, it means you can’t have much confidence in it.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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This on 06z (albeit in FI so don’t pay too much attention), would be rather a good set up for cold and snow.
In the more reliable timeframe temperatures dropping from current highs by nearly 15C over next week.
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@kitenski, that seems to be similar to longer term forecasts coming out from ECM & the UK Met Office. The latest ECM winter forecast is included in this article https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2022-2023-forecast-october-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ . The suggestions have been below average snow amounts for the central alps, above average in the Julian alps & northern Balkans and perhaps OK in the Italian alps (which would be a change from the past couple of years). None of this precludes episodes of decent snow anywhere but does suggest that those episodes might be less common than we would wish. Norway might be a good option once mid winter has passed.
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@BobinCH, the thick green line is the operational (so that’s the one which feeds automatic forecasts), but what your seeing here is that later in that run (which has been overtaken now in any case) is that despite it climbing quite aggressively at the end up the run it isn’t supported by the rest of the pack. So you treat it with low confidence. Obviously it’s at the far end of the run (FI) so all outcomes are relatively low confidence (even more so of course if you are talking about LRFs, but that’s a digression too far for a fine autumnal day).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Never mind thick green lines, FIs and LRFs...all we wanna know nozawaonsen is.... it gonna snow or what ? 
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FAQ
