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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
mountainaddict wrote:
Indeed!! Where is that happening @RetroBod?
I will try and find the link I was on yesterday but it wasnt until you clicked on the time bar at the bottom it was dated from the 12th Dec!! HAd me fooled! But over the years I have seen it several times when the camera just goes off line on the apps. However, you can usual still find the live links through google search (other search engines are available) Very Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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5-10cm of snow on Thursday in the French N.A. SL around 1800 at l'alpe d'Huez, 1700 at Avoriaz, 1600 in Val d'Isere. A few cms will fall in the Southern Alps above 1400m.

That's not going to bring the pigs in, as they say in Ambridge.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
Does anyone else find it slightly disingenuous when the webcams showing the lower slopes are switched off or show a feed from 2 weeks ago when it was snowy?
Indeed!! Where is that happening @RetroBod?


Chamrousse, le Recoin camera is out. It still exists on Skaping but is blocked on the 24th https://www.skaping.com/chamrousse/recoin/video
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Red Dave wrote:
Quote:

At my local resort nearly all the slopes are open on man made, it is not fun to ski - loose slush on a bed of ice by mid morning when the temps at 2000 meters are in double figures.

Is that Les 7 Laux?


Yes (St Hilaire, which is nearer, won't open this season due to leccy costs, oh and no snow). With the return to colder weather the manmade was icy today.
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Cham météo calling rain line going up to 2200m again on Friday. I don’t recall such persistent warm temps at this time of year


Some fresh snow in Verbier but will only be any use up high where it will be messed up by the foehn wind


PdS getting another drenching by the looks of it
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SLF tells a similar story - 2300m snowline Friday pm Shocked


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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Looks like the worst of the warm weather lasts for three to four days before cooling down to closer to seasonal averages (still mild). The east and south will largely avoid the worst of the rain over the next few days, after which it looks like a dry period for a while.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen,
Nothing at all for us to pin our hopes on in the next couple of weeks?
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@sbooker, 12z GFS op dips below average for time of year from about 10th Jan with snow for northern Alps. Obviously far FI and very low confidence, but if you want something to hang your hopes on, that’s the closest there is for now.
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@nozawaonsen,
I’ll take it. Very Happy
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Can someone please explain what is causing this mild weather hitting the alps.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Chris Brookes, https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/286497
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Thank you
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@sbooker, GFS suggesting snow from around 9th Jan but as ever a long way away and much could change before then https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=gfs,gfs,gfs,gfs&region=alps&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=00&step=294&plottype=ens&lat=47.127&lon=10.267&skewtstep=0
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The great thing about the unreliability of the models 10 days out, especially when every run and every model shows something different, is that hope can spring eternal.......
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Chris Brookes, from 25 December.

nozawaonsen wrote:
@südtirolistdeutsch, of course in the US they are pondering a slightly different question. In both instances the jet stream is being forced out of its more normal pattern. In the US the jet has plunged south and that is translating into very cold weather, in Europe high pressure has established itself over the continent forcing the jet north leading to extended mild weather. One explanation for this more meridional jet stream is warming of the Arctic, but it’s not something there is clear consensus on at this point.
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@pam w, yes.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Chris Brookes, from 25 December.

nozawaonsen wrote:
@südtirolistdeutsch, of course in the US they are pondering a slightly different question. In both instances the jet stream is being forced out of its more normal pattern. In the US the jet has plunged south and that is translating into very cold weather, in Europe high pressure has established itself over the continent forcing the jet north leading to extended mild weather. One explanation for this more meridional jet stream is warming of the Arctic, but it’s not something there is clear consensus on at this point.


Thank you
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pam w wrote:
The great thing about the unreliability of the models 10 days out, especially when every run and every model shows something different, is that hope can spring eternal.......

I think the main thing about the models is looking at how close the ensemble members are to each other on the graphs and to what day from the run time.

For the last week or so the ensembles have been pretty close to each other in terms of temperatures up to day 7-10 with not that much variance even at the end of the runs. Now the GFS is showing slightly more scatter at days 6-7 and a bit more variation at the end of the runs. Obviously it could flip in a few runs time to backing the mild solutions but at least it raises the possibility of colder/snowier outcomes in a fortnight.
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Extraordinary footage of frozen houses on Lake Erie.

https://twitter.com/nickiwanyshyn/status/1607882258525872128?s=46&t=rBmfW3Hyl6ypaBKCB942-g
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@nozawaonsen, Shocked
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@nozawaonsen......OMG
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Puts our moaning into perspective.
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Every action has an equal and opposite reaction……
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I've been in Les Arcs / La Plagne (Paradiski) since 25th Dec, just after the rain. Despite the rain and the conditions being challenging, there is plenty of great skiing across both resorts. Yes the lower runs are closed in places, but the top half of the mountains are pretty much as you would expect for this time of year. Head high if you want snow and it's all good.
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Every action has an equal and opposite reaction……
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18z GFS op continues to offer glimmers of cooler temperatures and fresh snow across Alps from 09/10 Jan.

Heavy caveat: very low confidence at this stage!
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Quote:
Heavy caveat: very low confidence at this stage!

Oh come on @noza!! We really do expect better from you! wink
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
This morning’s GFS ensembles continue to suggest the potential for some form of pattern shift from around 10 Jan. Far too early to have confidence. Far too early to have any sense of detail or extent.

Chamonix

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Just turned up for work at ADH and it’s snowing! Nothing was forecast bizarrely! Not heavy but nice to see all the same.
Tomorrow looks bad with rain/snow level of between 2100 and 2600m
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Alpinebear wrote:
Just turned up for work at ADH and it’s snowing! Nothing was forecast bizarrely!


I forecast it at the top of this page.
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@davidof, so you did! Very Happy
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Quote:
I forecast it at the top of this page
But did it bring the pigs in after all? Very Happy
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Unfortunately 5mm of snow rather than 5cm ….. so far
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Alpinebear wrote:
Unfortunately 5mm of snow rather than 5cm ….. so far


Well that won't bring the pigs in.
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Is there hope that was does come down, comes down mostly before the FL goes up?
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The Severe Weather folk seem to think that a Sudden Stratopheric Warming event might be on the cards see https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-polar-vortex-power-up-stratospheric-warming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/ if it does happen that could bring cold weather and significant snow but not for a few weeks , no help for new year skiing trips
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06z GFS sticks with the pattern shift. Bringing colder and snowier weather to the Alps from around 10 January.

It would also produce some pretty moody (stormy) conditions to the UK.



As far as SSWs go a note of caution from Dr Amy Butler. Warming yes (from near historic lows), but not at present conviction there’ll be an SSW.

https://twitter.com/drahbutler/status/1608126861036630019?s=46&t=sp2XgmLtERaenPlOPW3L0Q
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Could someone provide me with a link to the wigglies for St Martin de Belleville? Thanks
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@puplett, I think this is probs the closest:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=42642&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=
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