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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
A few years ago (think the year before covid) we had big dumps in Dec/Jan & then almost nothing until early march.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Christmas Eve and Day storm dropped 43" on Buffalo. At least 27 dead in just that one county alone. Sad With more snow and cold to follow.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/12/26/winter-storm-snow-death-toll-rises-buffalo/10953148002/
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Toadman, incredible storm but so deadly. The temperature extremes are crazy.
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@denfinella, January is too far away to be worried about for now imho
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I remember the really big storm of 1977 which buried Buffalow. Lake Erie froze over producing an enormous fetch for the snow essentially to blow off the lake and over the city.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_1977
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@kitenski,
Unless you’re travelling around the world at great emotional and financial expense to bring 5 others to witness the magic of snow in the mountains.
I’m optimistically expecting to bring cold and snow with us. The evening of January 7 will bring fresh snow to the Tarantaise. Very Happy
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@sbooker, fingers crossed, it will be what it will be, I'm sure you'll have a good holiday regardless.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
sbooker wrote:
@kitenski,
Unless you’re travelling around the world at great emotional and financial expense to bring 5 others to witness the magic of snow in the mountains.
I’m optimistically expecting to bring cold and snow with us. The evening of January 7 will bring fresh snow to the Tarantaise. Very Happy


I feel your pain as a fellow traveller from Australia.

Especially when you see how much snow alternative ski destinations are having right now…

Hope you’re right about your Aussie snow dance predictions. I’m not skiing for another 4 weeks so have time on my side at least. Plus most of my plans can be changed at short notice.

I’m just still scarred from the memories of a half bare Hakuba, Japan in 2020!
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Quote:
I feel your pain as a fellow traveller from Australia. Especially when you see how much snow alternative ski destinations are having right now…
There's nothing much worse than paying an arm and a leg for a ski trip on another continent and worrying about snow conditions in the build up Confused

We've had the same twice on January road trips to Utah and Colorado a few years back. The snow was uncharacteristically late in arriving in Utah and it was looking quite dodgy up to a couple of weeks before departure. As it was, there was plenty of snow but we had two weeks of sun and blue sky. Not a powder turn to be had (Greatest Snow on Earth?? rolling eyes ). We still had a great time though.

On the Colorado trip, we arrived to find conditions described by locals as the worst in years. There were closed runs, scoured wind-blasted runs and signs warning of marginal conditions...but we had fresh snow when we were there (we even had a fantastic powder day) and conditions were decent enough overall.

Easy to say, but you just have to make the best of what you get and try to have a good time.
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indeed...but we have to admit that skiing is a hobby which has with weather to do.
such as maybe surf, kite etc.
The risk of spending a little fortune and finally searching for oregano on the slopes instead of skiing is always round the corner...
or drinking mojito instead of kite or surfing etc
i knew it really well since i hat it for almost 12 years x two or three times pro year.
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kitenski wrote:
@denfinella, January is too far away to be worried about for now imho


Not sure I agree with this - January is less than a week away now and there is good model agreement for more mild weather. Also depends on where you are planning to go!

Late January - certainly no need to be at all concerned.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Good skiing above 2200m. Ice below! Looks like more snow Thursday before the arrival of the heatwave for New Year Shocked
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
denfinella wrote:
kitenski wrote:
@denfinella, January is too far away to be worried about for now imho


Not sure I agree with this - January is less than a week away now and there is good model agreement for more mild weather. Also depends on where you are planning to go!
.


I doubt we'll see much change in the current situation before the second half of January, it will be squeaky bum time for the French school holidays.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Just one run and 10 days out but some hope on ECM this morning.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022122700/ECM1-240.GIF?27-12

Sorry can't do the image thing.


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Tue 27-12-22 18:06; edited 2 times in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Will they run cannons at altitude where it’s below freezing at night? Or not bother due to the forthcoming warm patch?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
MoodyFFS wrote:
Will they run cannons at altitude where it’s below freezing at night? Or not bother due to the forthcoming warm patch?


They're running here right now at 1800 metres and above.
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scottishandy wrote:
Just one run and 10 days out but some hope on ECM this morning.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022122700/ECM1-240.GIF?27-12

Sorry can't do the image thing.


Here you go

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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@telford_mike, interesting! Thank you!
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Been here in La Rosiere since Saturday and the pistes are holding up quite well considering the temperatures and south facing slopes. Thankfully the temperature has dropped below zero for the first time since our arrival and I can see the snow cannons are firing it out as I type Little Angel
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Halitosis wrote:
Been here in La Rosiere since Saturday and the pistes are holding up quite well considering the temperatures and south facing slopes. Thankfully the temperature has dropped below zero for the first time since our arrival and I can see the snow cannons are firing it out as I type Little Angel


Nice, sums up the weather season so far....being able to use snow cannons is seen as good news.. Very Happy

Time to write off the 22/23 season already?
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@pctaylor, is that a serious question? By end of Jan a beast from the easy could flow in and it could be prime
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@pctaylor, are you nuts? Puzzled rolling eyes
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@pctaylor, casual…

Very Happy
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Leaving aside the actual forecast, is there not a law of averages type thing where if its really bad for a long time the odds of it getting good later are stacked? Kind of like a weather version of the Monty Hall problem?

I say this happily biding my time with nothing booked, yet....
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pctaylor wrote:


Nice, sums up the weather season so far....being able to use snow cannons is seen as good news.. Very Happy

Time to write off the 22/23 season already?


At my local resort nearly all the slopes are open on man made, it is not fun to ski - loose slush on a bed of ice by mid morning when the temps at 2000 meters are in double figures.
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Quote:
At my local resort nearly all the slopes are open on man made, it is not fun to ski - loose slush on a bed of ice by mid morning when the temps at 2000 meters are in double figures.
If it wasn't for the altitude, I might have thought you were near Glenshee or The Lecht @davidof wink
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
We arrived in north west alps today expecting the worst as it rained again last night. Pistures in LGB are doing an amazing job keeping a good number of slopes open.

Northern/higher slopes are by far the best. 1800 meters south facing slopes either muddy slush or compacted ice. North was a bit icy in places but overall pretty good all things considered. I’m happy we came.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@pctaylor, and anyway,
Quote:
being able to use snow cannons is seen as good news
is very often the case this early in the season.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The moral of the story is, always book Tignes / Val D - seems pretty good there! Ischgl - where I booked this year, not so Eh oh! Eh oh! - I’m tempted to change my plans to the US … move Austria to Easter
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@Alex A, is Ischgl bad at the moment then? Bergfex suggests it's mostly open with 44/45 lifts open today.
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Alex A wrote:
The moral of the story is, always book Tignes / Val D - seems pretty good there! Ischgl - where I booked this year, not so Eh oh! Eh oh! - I’m tempted to change my plans to the US … move Austria to Easter


What doesn't look good about Ischgl atm? Right now it's looking as good as anywhere from what I can see, and better than most of the W-NW French Alps, no? Top to bottom snow cover and almost the entire ski area (1 lift closed) open...
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Jagerbull wrote:
@Alex A, is Ischgl bad at the moment then? Bergfex suggests it's mostly open with 44/45 lifts open today.


Well - 10cm lower slopes and 50cm up
top. No snow, so to speak in forecast and mild temps. Town has almost no snow. Tignes has 65cm in town and 170cm up top and a big dump tomorrow that will snow to the base.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

At my local resort nearly all the slopes are open on man made, it is not fun to ski - loose slush on a bed of ice by mid morning when the temps at 2000 meters are in double figures.

Is that Les 7 Laux? My local resort only has a couple of nursery slopes open so I'm not bothering Sad I think I'll wait until January when the tourists have gone home, and hopefully it's got colder and snowier. Will go for a walk in the spring sun instead today...
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@Alex A, I wouldn't get hung up on snow depths. Today's report looks pretty positive.

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It's good to keep detailed discussions about particular resorts in the relevant resort thread. It's good when this one looks at the synoptic picture and we are fortunate to have some SHs who can help the rest of us interpret what the models are telling us.
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@pam w, agreed, sorry
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Alex A wrote:
The moral of the story is, always book Tignes / Val D - seems pretty good there!


Rubbish. I was there about 3-4 seasons ago in Feb (year before covid I recall). It hammered it down with rain to about 3000m and 120-130mph winds on top. The snow was truly awful at all altitudes!

Point is nothing to do with a specific resort before PamW pulls me up but there isn’t a resort anywhere that is always good.
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Does anyone else find it slightly disingenuous when the webcams showing the lower slopes are switched off or show a feed from 2 weeks ago when it was snowy?
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@RetroBod, yes. Very naughty I think.
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Quote:
Does anyone else find it slightly disingenuous when the webcams showing the lower slopes are switched off or show a feed from 2 weeks ago when it was snowy?
Indeed!! Where is that happening @RetroBod?
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