The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

Raining in verbier, can’t even see a snowline at the top of Médran. Heading up for a look

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@pam w, yes

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@pam w, yes it’s a non statement, offering a glimmer of unscientific hope that we might not get 60+ mm of rain. I did say often, which is largely meaningless. Anyone really paying attention would note that I made exactly the opposite assessment about a week ago when someone complained that precip / snow seem to diminish as time approaches. I said don’t worry, the higher precip totals are still possible.

In terms of big computer driven models correcting their bad habits, again that’s not the case. GFS, despite several upgrades a year is consistently biased to overly deepen lows and push them too far east. ECM is more likely to over amplify high pressure ridges poleward, and none of the models seem to handle mid latitude blocking very well.

So they have various but consistent flaws, that no amount of data crunching can so far overcome. Model accuracy, having risen sharply during the 90’s, 00’s, 10’s has slowed down to the point there have not been any notable improvements for years. In fact the general consensus on the latest GFS upgrade is that it is worse than before.

@under a new name, yes what? Let us know if you know something or not….I don’t understand your post. What do you know about tweaking the models to correct consistent bias?

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Austria doesn't seem to be doing soo bad.

@Skeeezo, been raining here all night- we can’t see freezing level from our accommodation- slopes were quite spring-like yesterday (some brown patches emerging but they’ve got big mounds of artificial snow to spread around)- still be white ‘Christmas like’ even after Friday’s forecast- we might go up today or go round to La Clusaz

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Well, it's certainly not going to be too sensible wearing your nice new puffa / down jackets over the next few days, unless you want to resemble a wet sponge Laughing

I think here we'll be ok for the festive period, for sure the rain will blitz the snow, but I think that the 50+ we have on the valley floor will hold up well, and they'll do a good job maintaining the pistes, so for most arriving Saturday/Sunday they're in for some great conditions, sun, sun and warm temps.

As for the off-piste touring options, looks like Spring snow conditions are on offer with classic freeze/thaw Very Happy

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Interesting @polo - in terms of the latest dose of “here’s hoping” after the xmas warm spell the models to seem to be adhering to your observations - GFS keeps it warm(ish) til new year, other models including ECM seem to be suggesting a move to something rather chillier.

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@andy from embsay, GFS, is about 2 days behind the other models at the moment, sometimes it leads, but more often it will backtrack when on it's own.

Here's my no holds barred view on the current state of the modeling.

We had nearly 2 months of great potential synoptic hemispheric pattern, with high lattitude blocking, only to be scuppered by east atlantic lows. Honestly think it was very fortunate that we got the snow we have. given the potential for worse. The strat polar vortex has been ramping up quickly as it always does during early winter, but again we were fortunate that the tropospheric vortex did not couple with the upper profile, and has remained disorganised....arctic high, greenland high, etc.

It's unrealistic to expect this disconnect to continue thru mid dec-mid jan, the traditionally strongest period of zonal westerly flow. And by all accounts it looks like that re-connection is unfolding now, as the strat PV goes vertical (wind speed) and the models are picking up on a much flatter westerly period down here in the troposphere. So no sign of high latitude blocking (deep cold potential).

The consequences are potentially dire, either a dry and mild few weeks, or mixed with some heavy rain only benefitting the very highest areas. And once you get a pattern switch on this scale, it can embed itself for 6-8 weeks before another meaningful change. Green fields thru to mid Jan are not out of the question.

Looking through the main 3 mean anomaly charts, at no point do any of them show low pressure over the alps for the next 2 weeks.

Right that's the bad news out of the way. On a slightly more hopeful angle, some background signals are showing potential for renewed amplification (high pressure ridges that disrupt the westerly flow and pull down colder air). MJO is moving into a more favourable phase, as is AAM (atmospheric angular momemtum). I won't pretend to know how the connections work, suffice to say they are moving in the right direction, and may or may not help down the line.

In the near term, beyond the deluge, there is still little consensus for the last week of Dec. As mentioned GFS is on it's own so I would say it's likely to change quickly....06z already heading that way.

In the most optimistic camps there are 4 models that show potential for NW flow into alps around the 27th (JMA a beauty, ICON GEM good and GFS 06z finally coming on board).
Another 2 models (ECM, UKMO) push the pattern too far east, which would benefit Austria only, if anywhere.

Presented from worst to best

So overall looks tragic based on 2 week means. But there are two hopes, Bob and.....the modeling will change. Also possible we get brief spells of troughs veering NW-SE within a net zonal (westerly) period.

Main takeaway is there is real potential still for snow as early as 6 days away, especially for Austria, and with luck also backing west. And as usual, anything can happen after that.

You know it makes sense.

ICON 12z refusing to declare winter is over, or even christmas for that matter, with the jet stream briefly turning NW-SE on boxing day, leading to -4c at 1500m and a decent snow shower for western and northern parts

JMA 06z backed its pattern further west earlier, while UKMO 12z is also better than before with cold NW flow into alps 26-27, GEM 12z a little east but pretty good, while GFS still not really on board - different to the others, again.

Increased chances for snow in UK too, higher ground.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Thanks @polo from taking the time to post these updates. There's a lot of folk here, worried about the next couple of weeks. I spent a bit of time at lunchtime looking at webcams across the Alps. It looks pretty gloomy and soggy out there. Hopefully, colder temps should help consolidate the snowpack (which will be pretty moist by then) and allow new snow to settle and bond better. The season hasn't really started yet. Let's be more positive.
Poor choice of words … sorry, I didn’t mean “let’s not say it as it is / mask over the black and white facts”. All I wanted to say was that there are some signs of colder temps in the not too distant future in some models. Hopefully, theses signs will materialise into a more reliable forecast the closer we get to a more reliable timeframe.

A snowHead

Up high 3000m good today in Verbier, rain probably to about 1700m first thing this morning

A snowHead

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Thanks @polo - seems like the signs of at least slightly better news after the xmas weekend are still hanging on in there. Still to be seen how much damage the next couple of days does though!

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Think they mean positive as in not every resort at every level is doom and gloom.

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This is a generic thread though, looking at the big picture and the models. There are specific threads for looking at specific resorts and obviously there's huge variability across the Alps from east to west and north to south.

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As far as mild weather at this time of year goes it really isn’t that uncommon.

The fact that there is even a word to describe it Weihnachtstauwetter gives a clue to its regularity. Indeed the article below suggests seven years out of ten you get a mild westerly climate in the run up to Christmas.

https://wetter.tagesschau.de/wetterthema/2022/12/19/weihnachtstauwetter.html

Obviously that’s slightly at odds with the marketing which is always going to sell an image of a white Christmas with powder snow outside and a cozy fire inside.

But that’s advertising for you.

Invariably some people tend to be more optimistic about conditions and see the potential of an upside just round the corner, whereas some are more pessimistic and can’t envisage how a poor spell can ever end. This also seems to be reflected in peoples recollection of the story so far, some are full of disappointment and frustration at what could have been, but wasn’t whereas others focus on the upside more than the downside. Each position tends to assume that they occupy the middle, moderate ground and alternate views are at the extreme. And in asserting their own objectivity fail to recognise the inherent subjectivity of their stance.

But that’s politics for you.

After all it is free

Some signs of another storm coming through around the New Year. Hopefully with colder temps…

One upside is that the higher UK mountains are likely to have a white Christmas snowHead

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The 30th looks like a repeat of last year.

I drove from Serre Che to Lyon and it was torrential rain all the way and it's looking exactly the same for the back end of next week, the only difference being that I'll be driving to Turin.

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I love a good game at Christmas

Some people like to talk vague third party inferences, some people like to talk about stuff they haven’t got a clue about (@apres), some people post lazy inaccurate analysis, some try their best regardless, and some people will get very wet. But that’s snowheads for you.

26-27 looks weak, but the nice thing about a flat zonal pattern is that it’s very fluid, so if you don’t score on the first wave, another one will roll in quickly. And month end looks to be a better shot as things stand.

Have a happy healthy Xmas break all

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Rained to 1900 meters last night in the Alps around Grenoble, the positive spin is it snowed a bit higher up, around 5cm at 2200/2400m. The negative spin is more rain incoming later today and we don't know if the pistes (lets not talk about off piste now) cannae take any more. FL about 2000m this morning. Lots of stones higher up on the slopes. Off piste (what there is) refrozen and not really skiable.

Great conditions in Rohrmoos-Untertal today, just +3c and mainly sunny. Pleasantly soft-ish slopes in the sun, clattery thaw-freeze pistes on the north facing sides.

Far better than yesterday’s rain p.m.

GFS forecasting incredibly warm air over Xmas and on about the 4th Jan, +8c at 850 hPA. Would that be record breaking for January in Styria?

You know it makes sense.

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@mountainaddict, that’s the mate I was skiing with, one of me in the verbier thread!

A snowHead

Whilst it may be too mild in the Alps, Denver has just seen the temperature tumble 75F in 18 hours.

A snowHead

Up to 150mm of rain forecast tonight to 2500 meters altitude in the French Alps.

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Snowing gently here at 1800 for the last couple of hours and lying on the road and making trees go all white and "christmasy"

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Loads of snow in la rosiere this eve at 1800 nice fluffy snow not the soggy wet stuff that fell last couple of nights so with bit of luck snow line a little lower than forecast. Benn snowing steady for few hours settling on roads. Hoping it’s not rain in resort tomorrow

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Not so good this morning. Raining steadily. Dull and gloomy.
It seems all the Cold has gone to USA
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/12/22/winter-storm-weather-blizzard-snow-forecast-updates/10942406002/

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Cool down and fresh snow on 27th would cheer things up with a couple of bluebird days after. That would deliver great skiing high up. Although could be warming up again for the arrival of 2023…

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The extreme weather across the US will presumably make skiing untenable in some resorts?

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What are the chances of this cold arctic burst migrating to over Europe?

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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

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