 Poster: A snowHead
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Hey all… it’s quiet on here considering the crazy weather that has moved over the alps… any thoughts from the experts about what’s happening, how long the warming should last, what’s in play that may change the pattern and a general feel for how depressed the Xmas skiers should be?
You insights are so valuable!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Looks like a big dump coming next weekend and then cooling down towards end of the month. Should be good above 1800m. Will be wet below.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| JDgoesskiing wrote: |
| In la rosiere at the moment piste skiing is really good not too busy off piste looks patchy but some decent cover some spots. Bit disappointing they haven’t opened the top section the two new lifts and looks like there’s plenty of snow. I’m thinking it could be energy saving giving it’s not super busy they can get away with it as no lift lines. They also haven’t listed some other runs and looks like they have enough snow so bit confused by this? I’ve visited in worse snow years and there’s been more open |
Yes they appear to be behind in bashing the Valaison sector - hope it opens for you in the coming day or two. Forecasts look worryingly warm out there just now - some precipitation around Wednesday but the question is whether it will be snow or rain 
Bigger dump next weekend, when I'll be trying to drive up the hill (I best look at that Youtube video on how to fit snow chains!)
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will this warming help stable the snow pack a bit? we may not like it now but in another big dumps time we'll be thankful a weak layer has been dealt with
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Locally... Around Grenoble were expecting rain to 2100 meters on Wednesday. Which is sub optimal
Zero isotherm will be around 3700m today in the French Northern Alps.
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@Mother hucker, I can only talk about where I am. It rained to around 2200 meters last week followed by fresh snow, around 20cm at that altitude. This has stabilized the snowpack below this altitude but things are currently very unstable above. Typical is the avalanche close to Valmorel in the Lauzière yesterday, a more detailed account is here:
https://pistehors.com/pVsxIoUBFehy1ochOJlS/series-of-avalanches-across-french-alps-one-dead
Huge avalanche, remotely triggered by skiers on shallow slopes on a route that seemed relatively safe. Be careful.
I would watch the snow line during the weather event starting tomorrow and keep that as a guideline. With the foehn expect new slabs to be formed higher up on north sector slopes on what is a widespread weak layer which will hang around now all season on cold, north sector slopes. If there is sufficient new snow (around 40cm currently on top of this weak layer) this will tend to bridge the weak layer although you always risk hitting a spot where the snowpack is thinner and triggering a big, unexpected, slide. So things will become more stable but partly because the danger is buried on N slopes. I would keep a close eye on the avalanche bulletins to see how things develop.
Note in the Lauzière slide the airbag wearer survived the other victim buried under 3 meters of snow, even with a lot of searchers it took them 22 minutes to get his head free to start CPR.
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@joe.b, what's happening this week is low pressure is west of portugal, driving warm air up into the alps. I don't think it will last long....the models are already backtracking a little on the crazy temps in a few days, and there's a lot of uncertainty beyond the 25th.
12z rolling out now and next week also looks better.
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Hi all, heading to Alpe d'Huez on Wednesday evening and hoping to ski Thu-Fri-Sat.
I'm usually an end of season skier so not sure what to make of the current forecast - is it really expected to rain at resort level and even slightly above? Does that necessarily mean snow higher up?
What will the pistes be like during this time and should we just pack swimsuits for the pool instead of ski jackets?
Cheers!
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| chenav wrote: |
Hi all, heading to Alpe d'Huez on Wednesday evening and hoping to ski Thu-Fri-Sat.
is it really expected to rain at resort level and even slightly above?
Does that necessarily mean snow higher up?
What will the pistes be like during this time
and should we just pack swimsuits for the pool instead of ski jackets?
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1. yes - but it is a forecast, most of the precipitation will be on Tue night/Wed morning, you may miss it
2. yes
3. wettish but the rain will not exaclty be at bath temperatures so won't make a huge amount of difference to the snow, it will even provide a good base once it freezes for future snowfall
4. You can ski in the rain but Th, Fr, Sa should be ok
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Looks a bit grim next few days. Remember your ponchos!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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This from Tarentaise Meteo is even more depressing
TRENDING FOR DECEMBER 24 AND 25...
Hello,
I'm bringing it up this weekend, I'm going to try to give you a trend for your Christmas, December 24th and 25th.
 DIAMONDER? ...
And yes, unfortunately the situation will get complicated on the 24th and 25.
I would really like to announce a cold white Christmas but the opposite will happen...
The forecasts have been nightmares for the last few days, and this morning the worst-case scenarios are winning...
With a strong disturbance that would begin Thursday 23rd to sneeze into the 24th in the evening with locally heavy rainfall.
But the catastrophe scenario is the limit snow rain, very high, it is expected Thursday already above 1800/2000m but it is especially Friday that the worst is to come with scenarios like ARPEGE that bring the snow up to 2300/2 400m locally 2500m, under heavy rainfall all the day...
Cumulus might be important locally
The LPN could then decline at the end of disruption but under the latest rainfall (to be confirmed... )
You got it, the snowcoat below 2200/2000m is going to come a long way with accelerated melting of it and a notable coat transformation is expected up to 2800/3000m... a disaster scenario this Christmas holidays...
Also the scenarios for next week are really not optimistic about snow...
We should remain under a brisk southward flow with Southerly sector wind daily.
To be confirmed, but it's quite the trend this morning...
A very gloomy end of 2022 in the mountains...
Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise
R’les Arcs la radio station
Map from GFS model (Weather)
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Is this bad news for everywhere or are some areas going to be okay?
I’m travelling all the way from Australia soon for my first ‘big’ ski trip since before Covid. Conditions don’t have to be perfect or amazing but even average would be nice.
I had considered the US or Canada for this trip as well and hoping I didn’t make a big mistake 
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You know it makes sense.
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@Raven, the Dolomites looks to get off lightly, not a lot of snow forecast but no rain either
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Rob Mackley, the latest GFS is not as negative as that forecast (though local forecasters are usually better for their own areas than the Europe wide ones) it suggests snow on Saturday from the Tarantaise along the main ridge as far east as the Brenner. Staying fairly mild for the rest of the year though.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Raven wrote: |
Is this bad news for everywhere or are some areas going to be okay?
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anywhere high
anywhere that saw substantial snowfall before the current warm spell
anywhere that could afford to do substantial snowmaking and had the cold to do it.
The Hautes-Alpes got a lot of early snowfall and should survive okay, for example. Ok it is not going to be wall to wall powder off piste.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| polo wrote: |
@joe.b, what's happening this week is low pressure is west of portugal, driving warm air up into the alps. I don't think it will last long....the models are already backtracking a little on the crazy temps in a few days, and there's a lot of uncertainty beyond the 25th.
12z rolling out now and next week also looks better. |
Im running with @polo 's account - keep the happy Christmas vibes alive
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
This from Tarentaise Meteo is even more depressing
TRENDING FOR DECEMBER 24 AND 25...
Hello,
I'm bringing it up this weekend, I'm going to try to give you a trend for your Christmas, December 24th and 25th.
DIAMONDER? ...
And yes, unfortunately the situation will get complicated on the 24th and 25.
I would really like to announce a cold white Christmas but the opposite will happen...
The forecasts have been nightmares for the last few days, and this morning the worst-case scenarios are winning...
With a strong disturbance that would begin Thursday 23rd to sneeze into the 24th in the evening with locally heavy rainfall.
But the catastrophe scenario is the limit snow rain, very high, it is expected Thursday already above 1800/2000m but it is especially Friday that the worst is to come with scenarios like ARPEGE that bring the snow up to 2300/2 400m locally 2500m, under heavy rainfall all the day...
Cumulus might be important locally
The LPN could then decline at the end of disruption but under the latest rainfall (to be confirmed... )
You got it, the snowcoat below 2200/2000m is going to come a long way with accelerated melting of it and a notable coat transformation is expected up to 2800/3000m... a disaster scenario this Christmas holidays...
Also the scenarios for next week are really not optimistic about snow...
We should remain under a brisk southward flow with Southerly sector wind daily.
To be confirmed, but it's quite the trend this morning...
A very gloomy end of 2022 in the mountains...
Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise
R’les Arcs la radio station
Map from GFS model (Weather) |
I really hope Romain is not planning a career as a motivational speaker when he's had enough of weather forecasting
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To my untrained eye (I'm no @polo or @nozawaonsen), it looks like things will start to cool down around the 2nd / 3rd with some precipitation thrown in the mix - but, of course, this is some way off?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@munich_irish, I do hope so , I will be based in Ste Foy and he’s usually spot on with his forecast around the hole that Bourg St Maurice sits in , with the weather coming from the South West I hazard a guess that the snow/rain level will be lower just over the border in La Thuille so we also have that option from La Rosiere . I’ve found this line between really cold air to the north and tropical below it quite annoying as it’s not made it to the alps that much in the last week or so .
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@franga, 2nd / 3rd Jan is two weeks away and models usually tend to revert towards the average at that sort of timescale anyway - especially compared to the very mild temperatures of the next week.
Think I would have to go with Romain here - the next week will really damage the snowpack below 2000cm, especially in the NW Alps.
Worst affected major resorts will be places like Portes du Soleil, Megeve, Grand Massif, Gstaad, Villars, La Clusaz.
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It is not going to be as bad as some GFS runs (and forecasters) have made out.
First I'll be surprised if Meteo Swiss are right about snow down 1300m wed/thurs.....maybe close to that further east, but the western end it would be a miracle given current FL's are about 2000m. But upper air (500hpa) is cold enough and ground temps aren't bad so you never know.
Second point is models often overestimate total precipitation, have already seen a reduction in forecast totals from 60+mm to 30mm, spread over the 4 days (21-24).
Third, xmas day itself doesn't look bad to me at all.....both GFS and ECM have it sunny, mild and dry, maybe even cooling down. Which will be lovely if there is any snow left on the ground 
And finally, the outlook after the big day is very much open to change.....none of the models agree on the exact path to the 25th, so none of them are likely to be right beyond this.
There is some agreement for another warm up 26-27, but mostly dry, and then potential for NW flow, something that we have barely seen in 2 months.
The Greenland high looks to be making a comeback after only disappearing for a few days. But we need to get rid of low pressure in the east atlantic. This can happen two ways looking at current output. Either it drops further south towards the Canaries, or gets absorbed by the Northern Europe low systems and sweeps across to the east. Both would be fine as long as it just clears off somewhere.
Here's a look at the differences just 8 days out, 28th Dec.
GFS drops the boring troll of a low further south, pumping more warm north african air into europe
GEM has the whole pattern further south, hinting at northerly flow into UK
But the pick of the bunch is ECM, with high pressure in the east Atlantic and N/NW flow reaching further south towards alps.....although favouring eastern end as things stand.
Anyway these are mean charts at day 8. None of them really agree with each other, and none of them show any dramatic switch back to wintery conditions. But the trend has been improving into end of month. No point looking beyond that as we have differences as early as the 24-25th.
Bottom line, it will be wet for a while, but maybe not as bad as some suggest, and then it will get better. Maybe much better.
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@polo that’s been my uneducated reading of the charts over the last day or two - the outlook generally getting better (well, less catastrophic) with less rain over xmas and a cooling down towards new year (but obviously that’s still 10+ days away).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| denfinella wrote: |
@franga, 2nd / 3rd Jan is two weeks away and models usually tend to revert towards the average at that sort of timescale anyway - especially compared to the very mild temperatures of the next week.
Think I would have to go with Romain here - the next week will really damage the snowpack below 2000cm, especially in the NW Alps.
Worst affected major resorts will be places like Portes du Soleil, Megeve, Grand Massif, Gstaad, Villars, La Clusaz. |
Yep, I can't disagree with this .... January trips booked : Les Gets + Flaine 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| franga wrote: |
| denfinella wrote: |
@franga, 2nd / 3rd Jan is two weeks away and models usually tend to revert towards the average at that sort of timescale anyway - especially compared to the very mild temperatures of the next week.
Think I would have to go with Romain here - the next week will really damage the snowpack below 2000cm, especially in the NW Alps.
Worst affected major resorts will be places like Portes du Soleil, Megeve, Grand Massif, Gstaad, Villars, La Clusaz. |
Yep, I can't disagree with this .... January trips booked : Les Gets + Flaine |
3 weeks ago there was almost no snow in Les Gets - surely three or four days of warm weather isn’t going to define conditions in January?
They spent the recent cold spell making snow 24hrs a day so there’s going to be a decent base in most places.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@andy from embsay, probably depends on when in January @franga is skiing. If it was early January - I'd be concerned.
As for a decent base - on pistes with snowmaking, yes. On pistes without snowmaking or off-piste at lower altitudes, the base is fragile and some runs will certainly close until there is further snowfall.
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@denfinella, I’m off to Morzine on 5/1 and I’m sure we’ll have plenty of decent piste skiing in Avoriaz and Chatel even if there’s no more snow. And still plenty of time for some more to fall before then at lower altitudes.
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You know it makes sense.
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@andy from embsay, yes, it's good that Avoriaz and higher parts of Chatel are always there to fall back on
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Nearly 4 weeks to go both (weekend of 13th) ... I'm not concerned at all. We will have a car so planning to drive up to Prodains and play in Avoriaz if we have to. I've been boarding for 25 years and I have developed an immunity to pre-trip jitters.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Good call @franga. I would drive to Ardent rather than Prodains though. Ardent’s a: free, b: takes you direct into Lindarets so you have the choice of three ways to go and c: is less likely to get full and have the gendarmes sending you back to Morzine to get the bus! Ardent’s probably also a slightly shorter drive from Les Gets.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| Good call @franga. I would drive to Ardent rather than Prodains though. Ardent’s a: free, b: takes you direct into Lindarets so you have the choice of three ways to go and c: is less likely to get full and have the gendarmes sending you back to Morzine to get the bus! Ardent’s probably also a slightly shorter drive from Les Gets. |
Good shout! Nicer drive past the Lac too. Thanks.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I think this latest forecast is good news for those skiing from January onwards. Because currently the snow base is very unstable die to extensive depth hoar, soaking rain up to high altitudes will help stabilize this, and set up great off piste conditions after hopefully decent snow in Janueay
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Update from SLF
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| denfinella wrote: |
| @andy from embsay, probably depends on when in January @franga is skiing. If it was early January - I'd be concerned. |
Meh, it's ages away. Flying out to Les Gets on 1/1/23. Might be rubbish but it might also puke it down before or during our trip. I think I've had just about every pre-trip scenario there is going over the years but there's nowt that worrying will do to change it...
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@Dashed, exactly. It’ll be fine up in Avoriaz and Plaine Dranse. Might not be great at the bottom of Pleney but as you say it could hoof it down by the new year.
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Lots of chat about the Portes du Soleil in this thread (which I have contributed to - sorry) - might be better off in the specific resort thread?
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Sadly no improvement from Tarentaise Meteo
Forecast for your second part of the week:
Thursday :
Cloudy  ️ Grey...
It's a grey day ahead...
A small disturbed passage to expect during the night Wednesday through Thursday, low accumulation, in the range of 2 to 3 mm in the valley.
It will snow above 1800/1900 m.
Then the whole day will be well covered, very little chance of seeing a lightening strike, the peaks are sometimes well clogged.
Rainfall returns in the late afternoon or early evening depending on sectors.
It will snow above 1800/1900m at the beginning of disturbance.
Rainfall will increase sharply in the evening and following night.
LPN during the evening will be above 1900/2000m altitude.
Wind will be at times sensitive in the early part of the day with gusts of 40/50km/h, locally 60/65km/h over the W wind exposed areas.
Temperatures are rising from +5°C to +13°C in valley, +2°C to +8°C at 900m, -2°C to+4°C at 1800m and -2°C at -1°C at 2600m.
ISO 0°C will be the best of the day at 2200m altitude.
Pressure will be stable between 1015 and 1020hPa.
Friday :
Heavy disturbance...
As predicted in previous bulletins, this Friday will be marked by a strong disturbance producing heavy rainfall throughout the day, significant accumulations are expected by Saturday morning, in the order of 60/80mm s elon the sectors, some scenarios go up to 100mm!
The LPN at sunrise will be at an altitude of 2200m, then could rise to 2300/2400m during the day, it will have to wait for the second part of the night from Friday to Saturday to find snow again at 2000/2200m.
A thunderstorm is possible with the strongest precipitation expected over the niche 3:15PM.
The wind will be moderate at altitude with gusts of 50/70km/h depending on sectors, locally gusts of 80/90km/h are possible over the ridges and summits, locally more.
Temperatures are stable or rising very slightly, we'll go from +7°C to +13°C in the valley, from +4°C to +9°C at 900m, from -1°C to +5°C at 1800m and from -1°c to 0°C at 2600m altitude.
ISO 0°C during the day at 2600m elevation!
Pressure will be stable between 1015 and 1020hPa.
Careful in the mountains, the snowcoats will be very unstable, the risk of avalanche will be maximum!
At high altitude above 3000m, the snow layer could approach 70/80cm and 1m on the glaciers.
Trending for your weekend:
Saturday, continuing well overcast and sometimes wet weather in the first part of the day, the LPN is uncertain but could stay quite high around 2000m, see more, some scenarios bring the LPN back above 2500m high!
Back to calm Sunday with the return of possible clear skies after the great carnage in the mountains...
Have a great day everyone!
Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise
R’les Arcs la radio station
Map of possible cumulus interviewed by ARPEGE (not to be taken lightly) (Meteociel)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The good thing with my trip is that even though my week in the Dolomites is locked in I have 1 or 2 extra weeks of skiing with bookings that can be cancelled / changed up until fairly late.
If there’s nowhere in Europe a short flight from London with okay snow then we’re all in trouble 
I might sound overly paranoid but my last big snow trip was to Japan just before Covid and snow conditions in Hakuba were appalling. We’re talking the bottom half of some hills being nearly unskiable due to lack of snow and mud. Luckily I’d also book a number of days to ski in Shiga Kogen which although it’s in the Nagano ski area same as Hakuba is much higher altitude and had snow conditions that were actually pretty good.
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What a bag of shite the next few days are going to be.
I bought the Mrs new skis, boots and poles for Christmas and we are booked in accommodation for 27th - 2nd in western Alps.
Looking like waders might be a better option at this point. 
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