 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Mid-December isn't just early season, it's pre-season in many resorts which won't open fully till Christmas week even if buried in snow.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Looks like another tip top weekend ahead but then warming up for a few days before hopefully coming back down just in time for Xmas. Would be good to see a few more precip spikes in there!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@pam w, Spot on , its only just started most don’t open till next week.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Mid-December isn't just early season, it's pre-season in many resorts which won't open fully till Christmas week even if buried in snow. |
Hallelujah
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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snow level today looks like 1900m.......rain below that...not great
10+ degrees at 1500m from Monday........which is frustrating
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| pam w wrote: |
| Mid-December isn't just early season, it's pre-season in many resorts which won't open fully till Christmas week even if buried in snow. |
Indeed and those that are nominally open, are often just with a handful of lifts and slopes as there are only a few local punters around so not worth the cost of running full infrastructure. Better spend time running snow cannons and consolidating the snow base ahead of christmas week.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I appreciate that someone said this isn’t a ‘requests’ thread, but, this one isn’t for the golf club, promise……  ….. just wondered if someone could share their thoughts on forecasts for the Ski Amadé for next week ?
Much appreciated x
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Timberwolf, wepowder and bergfax if you speak deutsch powderguide
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@Timberwolf, should be nice. Bit of snow on Saturday then a bit milder, sunny and not much wind.
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You know it makes sense.
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@davidof, there's still snow in villages at 1000m in the far northern french alps, and even 500m .....what altitude / resort is that pic?
Anyway this 22/23 seasons weather pattern so far has been close to very good, but not producing much more than average snow. The NH profile has been loaded with potential for almost 2 months now but east Atlantc low's have prevented much of the alps from seeing large quantities of snow coming down. Southern alps have done better than many other years at this stage because of the ongoing SW flow. Thankfully the air has been cold enough to the north to prevent the snowline rising too high, and there were a few nice but brief NW incursions late November. But no question it's been a boring pattern, and frustrating to be so close to a very decent northerly on many occasions.
Last 2 months pressure anomalies show the strength of northern blocking, and the near constant east atlantic low pressure, leading to SW-NE jet into europe. With only the NW alps not under high pressure on average.
Looking at ECM day 10 mean for the big day, the broken record loops on.....nice ridge / block up into Greenland, but too far west, leaving low pressure west of portugal, and more SW flow into alps.
In the nearer timeframes, decent amount of snow arriving today, with FL dropping sharply at the end, so tomorrow morning should be nice in many places to low levels. Mild and dry blip follows Sun-Tues, with 12c at 1500m possible in eastern parts, but remaining much colder on the southern side of the main ridge. Either way the warmer air clears quickly, and by Wednesday colder flow is likely from the NW, leading to potentially another good dump pre xmas.
GFS 06z FL's for Thursday 22nd
Other models have more westerly / higher snowline end of next week, so I'd give it a 50/50 chance at the moment....as to whether snowline will be above or below 1500m (NW).....so by xmas week it really should be an above average base in most places.
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Thu 15-12-22 11:39; edited 3 times in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Heading to Austria just after Christmas and looking on Bergfex other than a Sprinkle on Saturday high pressure seems to be the dominant feature again, any sign of this high pressure breaking down or moving off in another direction, thank you
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo thank you
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| polo wrote: |
| @davidof, there's still snow in villages at 1000m in the far northern french alps, and even 500m .....what altitude / resort is that pic?. |
1100 meters in the Vercors.
From Meteo France this AM
Chablais: Enneigement déficitaire. On peut chausser les skis vers 1500 m.
Mont Blanc: Enneigement déficitaire pour la saison
Aravis: Enneigement déficitaire
Haute-Tarentaise, Beaufortain, Vanoise: L'enneigement est maintenant dans la moyenne
Grandes Rousses, Belledonne: Enneigement assez correct pour la saison vers les sommets du massif, plus faible à basse altitude.
Chartreuse, Vercors : Enneigement assez correct pour la saison vers les crêtes, plus faible à basse altitude
I note a number of ski areas put off their openings due to lack of snow in the Pyrenees and Northern Alps.
So I think my assessment of a slow start to the season is correct with really just the Savoie having average conditions in the Northern French Alps. It was raining above 1500 meters yesterday. Looking ahead the warm spell won't improve things at lower altitudes; Zero iso seems to be around 1800m but isn't it due to go to around 3000 m on Monday, Tuesday with a return to snow on Wednesday next week? Hopefully in time for Christmas week.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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What constitutes southern and northern alps? Is Zermatt southern?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@davidof, yes it was/is slow compared to vintage years, but also way ahead of many poor years. And hard to generalise as further south and further north of you are slightly better. Weird that MF think Chablais is in deficit, as there are still small piles of snow in the parking at Carrefour Douvaine (less than 400m).
Here's webcam at lac Montiond 1070m for comparison.
@2waterford, still a bit far to make a forecast, but it doesn't look terrible.....could see this weak northerly flow stall for a few days, and with a bit of luck get a decent snowfall end of week, 21st onwards
@Raven, Zermatt right on the main ridgeline, so I would say north, but only by a few hundred meters....can do well from both directions
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| polo wrote: |
| @davidof, yes it was/is slow compared to vintage years, but also way ahead of many poor years. And hard to generalise as further south and further north of you are slightly better. Weird that MF think Chablais is in deficit, as there are still small piles of snow in the parking at Carrefour Douvaine (less than 400m). |
The Mont Blanc range is generally around 2 to 3 degrees colder than the mountains around Grenoble. So you can have good snow in the Chamonix valley but crocuses where we are.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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For any keen model watchers I thought I'd highlight some of the subtle changes to look out for, re. next week
The ICON 12z has just rolled out and it keeps the theme of small improvements seen over the last day or two. We've been scuppered many times by the phasing of northerly lows with atlantic lows, seen below in the 06z.....as the isobars meet up, the atlantic low (south of greenland) will pull the northern low too far west, bringing milder air to alps.
But on the updated 12z, you can see a separation between the isobars. This will allow a ridge of high pressure to wedge in, and direct the northerly into a more W-NW flow into the alps next week.
It's only one run, one model.....and the difference might just delay the unwanted phasing by a day or two......but that's what I'm looking for at this range, small improvements early on make all the difference down the road. Yes I need to get out more, and I will, depending on the phasing / freshies.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 15-12-22 16:36; edited 1 time in total
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Thanks Polo, watching with avid interest
we are driving down on Sunday to Tarentaise, talk of 10 degrees at 1500m.......not in the script LOL
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@polo, cheers again. Been watching in interest. Heading to la plagne tomorrow until the 24th. FL all over the place right now. Seen rain on the cams at low levels today but snow above 2000. Hopefully the lower levels will get some snow tonight as well as the temps drop. Hoping the temp drops so they can get the cannons back running to repair the damage from the rain today
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It's absolutely bucketing it down right now, hard to tell FL but looks about 1500m already where I am and about to head under 1000 into weekend. Will be good.
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| polo wrote: |
| It's absolutely bucketing it down right now, hard to tell FL but looks about 1500m already where I am and about to head under 1000 into weekend. Will be good. |
see if you can make sense of this (from Meteo France)
Pluie-Neige: 1400 m -> 500 m
Iso 0°C 2000 m -> 1800 m
So snowing 1300 meters below the FL. I guess the air is pretty much constant temperature all the way down in that case. The FL is 2000m in the Chartreuse where I am but it is snowing at 1300 m - big wet soggy flakes but snow.
Although the local paper noted that on Tuesday it was snowmaggedon in Grenoble but raining 1000 meters higher in the Vercors. It is a mixed up picture at the moment in some areas.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@davidof, I can't recall a period where the models struggled so much with both FL and snowline (clearly that ISO above looks wrong for a 500m snowline)....we know the inner valleys are colder and the western / northern alps are consistently under this cold/mild upper air boundary. So it's a bit of pot luck....but I'd always take the average from several sources, so for me this evenings snowfall was looking like 1500-1000m FL (GFS, WRF, AROME, ECM)......so far so good.
And 2 days ago we had sub zero all day at 400m, and rain at 1600m.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Pretty bonkers here, now having problems as to where to clear the snow off the terrace and garden to as I clean paths and areas for the dogs etc, snow is now blocking our view when I sit down 
Have a friend who is driving over the Lautaret shortly, spoke to him and he was just shy of La Grave, so wonder how long it will take him to get here, that said can't see us doing a lot tomorrow!
Must be getting on for 40-50cm, have a better idea when I go down to meet him and hand over some keys as there's no way he'll be driving up to me!
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You know it makes sense.
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It looks like it is warming up now until the beginning of January??
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yeah.. was hoping for some snow whilst we were away for the week after Christmas. New snow is looking very unlikely though. I’m now just hoping that there is enough of a base for the cannons to keep the slopes decent in Chinallion.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Mother hucker wrote: |
| @Timberwolf, wepowder and bergfax if you speak deutsch powderguide |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @Timberwolf, should be nice. Bit of snow on Saturday then a bit milder, sunny and not much wind. |
Thanks both
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Chris Brookes, where are you looking? Verbier looks like warm for two days then cooling down and more snow 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@kitenski, more snow on Wednesday, but then warming up again beyond (with more snow, but rain lower down).
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In Morzine/Avoriaz the freezing level looks to be up towards 3000m on xmas day. Cooling down thereafter (but that’s a while off so much could change).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@denfinella, where are you referring to?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Skeeezo, we’re there- enough of a base now- lots of artificial snow, but it’s very nice up by the Terres Rouges- lots of runs still closed at the moment
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@Pierresel That’s reassuring. Thanks. I can see on the website that they’re hoping to get more runs open soon too. Plenty to optimistic about even with forthcoming mild spell.
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@kitenski, sorry, that was for NW Alps (so includes Verbier, Morzine and Avoriaz which have all been mentioned above). Though as Verbier's skiing is relatively high it will be less affected than lower ski areas.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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In la rosiere at the moment piste skiing is really good not too busy off piste looks patchy but some decent cover some spots. Bit disappointing they haven’t opened the top section the two new lifts and looks like there’s plenty of snow. I’m thinking it could be energy saving giving it’s not super busy they can get away with it as no lift lines. They also haven’t listed some other runs and looks like they have enough snow so bit confused by this? I’ve visited in worse snow years and there’s been more open
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3 valleys all good generally. No queues.
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