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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Shades of blue on both precipitation and temperature charts starting to seep into parts of Europe.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Temperatures rally back towards normal for month end, but definitely a more autumnal flavour.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
BOM have now declared a La Niña event.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

However, noting:

“The majority of models predict an easing of the La Niña in early 2023, suggesting a relatively short-lived event; ENSO events typically peak during the southern hemisphere summer and decay during the autumn.”
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
So what if any affect will this have on Europe? Anyone have any historical view? Past two years have been La Nina and snow has looked pretty poor in Chamonix, where I am heading in Early Jan.
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Snow forecast in the higher elevations of the eastern alps this weekend https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/temperatursturz-in-sicht-erster-schnee-in-den-mittelgebirgen--e3768729-5633-462a-a6a7-b78853fba2ce
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@skiberg, as mentioned on previous page direct correlation is hard to make for Europe. It’s part of the broad pattern, but it’s not really possible to make much more than very general statements.
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Good, you are confirming what I have heard many times, I guess it just makes me feel better when I hear it again after I have paid for the trip. Taking a whole bunch to Cham this year and hoping it works out. Thanks.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@skiberg, The Severe Weather articles linked above go into this in some detail though the result is general analysis not a snow forecast for Chamonix! Even in a snow poor winter there will be some periods with good conditions. From what I have read it seems another snow poor winter is a higher possibility than a snow rich one, though with the number of variables any attempt at a "forecast" is likely to be wrong in some key aspects.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
We flew over the alps yesterday and they were white over snowHead . It know it will melt yet but it looked nice.
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Based on some firmer data, the North Atlantic is somewhat warmer than "normal", the Severe Weather folks are suggesting western Europe is more likely to have a warmer & dryer than "normal" winter https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/ocean-anomaly-atlantic-gulf-stream-forecast-winter-united-states-europe-fa/ . This seems a bit less speculative than the usual long term "forecasts". Given we know that our climate is very much influenced by the Gulf Stream (the usual comparisons of Scotland to Canada) it seems very reasonable to suggest that a warmer north east Atlantic results in a warmer western Europe (supported by long term climate data). Not good for either skiing or more generally when there has been such a prolonged period of below average precipitation. Seems like the cold, wet & miserable weather over the past couple of days is going to be the exception rather the rule over the coming months.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Well that’s the season pretty much written off right there I’d say… And only mid September. But there you go.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@nozawaonsen, Toofy Grin Forecasts have been known to be not quite correct.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Or absolutely rubbish further out than 1 week?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I admit I will expect positive forecasts of any sort to be correct, and pessimistic ones wrong
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
+1. I can only add that I'll go skiing anyway, be it on a narrow white strip in a green/yellow field. It all beats working and then a burger in front of the TV
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Beautiful views on the way to work this morning, clear blue skies with views of snow covered mountains from the Chiemgau to the Zugspitze. Seems to be a chance of more snow in the next few days higher up.

Video (in German) on why winter forecasts are nonsense Very Happy https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/alle-jahre-wieder-der-unsinn-von-winterprognosen--f7336aea-88d7-46bd-a432-20376e4cc6dd
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Yep end of the month round 27/28 September looks like there could be a reasonable amount of snowfall above 1500-1700m in northern Alps.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Do we need to wax up the touring skis for the weekend???
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Best snowfall looks like Tuesday at moment with 20-30cms at height and snowline dropping to 1500-1700m before rising above 2000m. Snow showers about here and there in the northern Alps much of the week above 2000m.

Below average temperatures for time of year over coming week.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Above average precipitation for time of year over coming week.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4
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BobinCH wrote:
Do we need to wax up the touring skis for the weekend???


Looking forward to the trip report already Smile
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Apparently even the Spanish Sierra Nevada has had a small fall of snow.

Hope it melts quickly as they havent finished their new ski lifts and I suspect handling steelwork at -1C is not very pleasant....
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In the French NA there was around 10 to 20cm over 2000meters. On Tuesday as I stared out the window it went white then green, then white again as the zero isotherm moved around 2000m.

Val d'Isere



and the Aiguille du Midi



20cm of very wind blown snow, not worth risking a crevasse fall for.

Over on the Dachstein it looks good



Loppets opened last week.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Florence Rabier (DG ECMWF) warning that high pressure likely to dominate Western Europe in November, December increasingly likelihood of colder than usual and drier than usual weather.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen, don’t like the sound of Florence!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
But looks like she might know her stuff: https://www.emetsoc.org/people/person/florence-rabier/
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Mid month FI has been looking interesting on GFS last few runs. Too soon to tell if it’s noise or signal at this point mind you.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Severe Weather folks latest long term outlook suggests less snow than "normal" (not no snow) based on the ECMWF analysis (as above) but the UK Met office seems to think the southern side might do better https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ . As ever this sort of analysis cant answer the "will there be snow at Christmas in..." question (there might be!) but there is a fair amount of agreement that we are not particularly likely to get a very snowy winter. That might be good from an energy supply perspective but less so for sliding down mountains.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Whilst Met Office contingency planners suggesting an increased likelihood of milder and drier temperatures for the U.K. up to year end the overall probability of average conditions for the period remains highest by some way. Within this broad assessment there is of course variability regionally and over the time period. It also notes that at the same time as La Niña tends to favour early winter high pressure the same period may also see increased cyclonic activity with potential that hurricane season may run later than usual (so on the one hand drivers for high pressure on the other drivers for low pressure, overall leading to reduced confidence in the outlook).

Of course for the Alps any weather would be driven by where exactly any high pressure did set up. So we’ll see. As to good for/bad for skiing. I’d suggest:

- it’s a bit early to say.
- it’ll probably depend on when and where you are skiing.
- massive winter storms aren’t necessarily great for skiing.
- in any case, good wine, company and food is happily not effected by the weather.
- it’s a bit early to tell.

The summary of the contingency planners can be found here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-secure.pdf
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
This morning’s GFS 00z continues the trend of the last few runs to hint that there may be some cooler and snowier weather in the wings mid month. Whether that develops into a clearer signal, time will tell.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Sticky, please
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looks promising…
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
12z GFS also going for cold mid month, with temperatures 8C below average for the time of the year in the Alps…
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